National Energy Security Research Articles

Systemic risk spillovers among global energy firms: Does geopolitical risk matter?

In recent years, the worsening global geopolitical conditions have led investors and policy makers to become increasingly concerned about systemic risk in the global energy market. However, the existing literature has little empirical evidence on this problem from a geopolitical perspective. Based on an Elastic-Net-VAR model for depicting high-dimensional left-tail interdependence, this paper measures time-varying systemic risk spillovers among 212 energy firms in 36 countries. Then, a panel data model is established to examine the impact of geopolitical risk (GPR) on risk spillovers. Our results indicate that the GPR of a country directly intensifies the risk spillovers of the country's energy firms, as well as spreads to other countries based on geographic proximity and energy trade flows and indirectly intensifies the risk spillovers of the energy firms in these countries. Specifically, the indirect effects of GPR are more pronounced than the direct effects for fossil fuel firms, in oil-consuming countries, and during stable periods in global geopolitics. Moreover, the potential firm-level mechanisms through which GPR intensifies risk spillovers are declines in asset turnover, deceleration in corporate investment, and negative market forecasts. These findings can help to mitigate the adverse effects of GPR on energy firm performance, national energy security, and stability in the global energy market.

The Projection Of The State Of Ceará On The International Stage Through FIEC In The Production And Exportation Of Green Hydrogen And Its Impact On Socioeconomic Development In Ceará

Background: The beginning of the 21st century presents the international community with a tumultuous global environment characterized by instability and uncertainty. Global warming and the decarbonization of the economy are among the challenges that many countries have prioritized by increasing renewable energy sources in their energy matrices. Strengthening international relations, Ceará, due to its geographical location and favorable natural conditions of sun and wind, emerges as a promising player to contribute to global energy demands through hydrogen production and exportation. Materials and Methods: This research focuses on examining the initiatives led by the Federation of Industries of the State of Ceará (FIEC) in the production and exportation of green hydrogen, aiming to understand their potential impact on the state’s position in the international arena and the associated benefits. Results: The research evaluates the socioeconomic effects of these initiatives on Ceará, revealing that the ongoing actions have the potential to strengthen the state’s economic and social structures. These improvements could contribute to a more equitable, sustainable, and inclusive society. Conclusion: The initiatives related to green hydrogen production and exportation under FIEC's leadership promise not only to support national energy security but also to elevate the quality of life for the people of Ceará, enhance the educational system, and secure the state’s role in the global energy transition

Emergency Capability Evaluation of Port-Adjacent Oil Storage and Transportation Bases: An Improved Analytic Hierarchy Process Approach

The large-scale storage and stable supply of oil products are essential for national energy security and economic development. As the economy expands and energy demands rise, centralized storage and supply systems become increasingly vital for ensuring the efficiency and reliability of oil product distribution. However, large oil storage depots present substantial safety risks. In the event of fires, explosions, or other accidents, emergency response efforts face stringent demands and challenges. To enhance the emergency response capabilities of oil storage and transportation bases (OSTBs), this paper proposes an innovative approach that integrates the improved analytic hierarchy process (IAHP) with the Entropy Weight Method (EMW) to determine the combined weights of various indices. This approach reduces the subjective bias associated with the traditional analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The emergency response capabilities of OSTBs are subsequently evaluated through fuzzy comprehensive analysis. An empirical study conducted on an OSTB in the Zhoushan archipelago quantitatively assesses its emergency preparedness. The results show that the base excels in pre-incident prevention, demonstrates robust preparedness and response capabilities, and exhibits moderate recovery abilities after incidents. These findings provide a theoretical foundation for reducing the likelihood of accidents, enhancing emergency response efficiency, and mitigating the severity of consequences. Practical recommendations are also offered based on the results.

Innovation and application of integrated management mechanism of chemical flooding in extra-high water cut sandstone oilfield

Abstract Daqing oilfield chemical flooding technology is mature and matching, enhanced oil recovery, strongly support the development of oil fields, in order to ensure the national strategic security of energy plays a pivotal role. Since the 13th five-year plan, aiming at the problems of poor quality reservoir condition, poor development benefit and increasing difficulty of stable production, the target of high-efficiency development has been set, innovative Management mode, the construction of “Key research, continuous improvement, promotion and application” closely linked to the new mechanism of integrated scientific research and production management; A new dynamic management mechanism of chemical flooding development is established, and a new management model of injection system is established. Since 2016, the development efficiency of chemical flooding has improved markedly, with annual oil production remaining stable at over 10 million tons and an additional 2.55 million tons of oil production. The tonnage of polymer-enhanced oil has increased from 47.4 tons to 57.2 tons, saving 126,000 tons of polymer and generating 5.503 billion yuan in economic benefits, Daqing Field has made important contributions to the revitalization and development of the country in the new era and ensuring national energy security.

Experimental Study on the Thermal Behavior Characteristics of the Oxidative Spontaneous Combustion Process of Fischer–Tropsch Wax Residue

Coal-to-liquid technology is a key technology to ensuring national energy security, with the Fischer–Tropsch synthesis process at its core. However, in actual production, Fischer–Tropsch wax residue exhibits the characteristics of spontaneous combustion due to heat accumulation, posing a fire hazard when exposed to air for extended periods. This significantly threatens the safe production operations of coal-to-liquid chemical enterprises. This study primarily focuses on the experimental investigation of the oxidative spontaneous combustion process of three typical types of wax residues produced during Fischer–Tropsch synthesis. Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) was used to test the thermal flow curves of the three wax residue samples. Kinetic analysis was performed using the Kissinger–Akahira–Sunose (KAS) and Flynn–Wall–Ozawa (FWO) methods to calculate their apparent activation energy. This study analyzed the thermal behavior characteristics, exothermic properties, and kinetic parameters of three typical wax residue samples, exploring the ease of reaction between wax residues and oxygen and their tendency for spontaneous combustion. The results indicate that Wax Residue 1 is rich in low-carbon chain alkanes and olefins, Wax Residue 2 contains relatively fewer low-carbon chain alkanes and olefins, while Wax Residue 3 primarily consists of high-carbon chain alkanes and olefins. This leads to different thermal behavior characteristics among the three typical wax residue samples, with Wax Residue 1 having the lowest heat release and average apparent activation energy and Wax Residue 3 having the highest heat release and average apparent activation energy. These findings suggest that Wax Residue 1 has a higher tendency for spontaneous combustion. This research provides a scientific basis for the safety management of the coal chemical industry, and further exploration into the storage and handling methods of wax residues could reduce fire risks in the future.

Soc Trang residents’ willingness to payfor renewable energy development projects

In Vietnam, electricity production has been growing strongly and is expected tocontinue increasing in the future. However, heavy reliance on fossil fuels is putting significant pressure on the environment and national energy security. The public's awareness of the potential and benefits of renewable energy is still limited. The lackof understanding about the positive impacts of renewable energy compared to fossil fuels may lead to a lack of community support for the green energy transition process.This studyappliesthe approachof choice modelling (CM) or choice experiment (CE) toevaluatethe willingness to pay (contribute) of residents in Soc Trang province for renewable energy development projects. The results indicate that the majority of Soc Trang residents have some knowledgeabout common renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, and biomass energy. They demonstrate a willingness to contribute to the benefits that renewable energydevelopment projectscan bring, includingimproving the environmental landscape, protecting wildlife habitats, reducing air pollution, and creating new job opportunities. Among these benefits, they are particularly interested in the potential for job creation through renewable energydevelopment projects

Impact of Natural Gas Peak Shaving on High-Quality Economic Development

As energy demand continues to grow, the enhancement of natural gas storage and peaking capacity has become an important measure to ensure national energy security and to achieve the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. Gas storage and peaking have mature development models in the international arena, and China is making every effort to develop this system. This study reveals the impact and promotion of natural gas storage and peaking technology on high-quality economic growth in different regional economic environments through sample data from 30 provinces in China, from 2006 to 2022. The results show that natural gas storage and peaking directly promote high-quality economic development and have a positive spatial spillover effect on high-quality development in neighboring regions, a finding verified by the robustness test and endogeneity test. A heterogeneity analysis further revealed that there are significant differences among eastern, central, and western regions in terms of natural gas storage and peaking capacity and quality of economic development. The eastern region has a stronger gas storage and peaking capacity, while the central and western regions have a weaker capacity. Mechanism analysis shows that R and D technology (RDT) efficiency and green finance have a positive moderating effect on the benchmark effect. This has significant implications for policymakers and business leaders, suggesting that peak gas storage and peaking can drive improvements in broader regional corporate sustainability practices and increase regional levels of high-quality development.

A comparative study of strategic petroleum reserve policies of major countries in the world

Petroleum security is the guarantee of national security that plays an important role in national energy security, while petroleum strategic reserve is the most basic guarantee of national petroleum security. At present, the number of selected countries in the study of petroleum strategic reserves is insufficient, as there are too much vertical comparison and the horizontal comparison analysis is not enough. Based on this, on the basis of comparing the strategic petroleum reserves of major countries in the world in terms of storage methods, address selection, policy formulation, management system and utilization mechanism, this paper conducts longitudinal comparison and horizontal comparative analysis and research, trying to find out their common policy characteristics and advantages from different strategic petroleum reserve policies, modes and practices of various countries, and carries out eliminating the rough and learning from the strong. The experience gained can be used for reference by other countries.

Utilization of Sengon Wood Sawdust as Bio-Pellet Feedstock: Characteristics, Potential, and Feasibility for Renewable Energy

The pellet-making process involves stages of drying, compaction, cooling, and size separation. Considering that Indonesia has great potential for biomass supply, this research aims to identify the characteristics of bio-pellets produced from sengon wood sawdust based on the pellet standard SNI8675:2018. The results showed that the highest calorific value at the Dry Basis (DB) condition was 4703 Kcal/kg, meeting national and international standards. The moisture content in the As Received (AR) condition was recorded at 10.36%, while the lowest ash content was 1.72%. The highest combustion rate was found in sample 3, with a value of 0.174 gr/min, indicating good combustion performance. The utilization of sengon wood sawdust as bio-pellets can be an efficient and environmentally friendly renewable energy solution, and has the potential to be further developed to support diversification and national energy security.

THE EFFECTS OF RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR ON UKRANIAN ENERGY SECURITY AND EUROPEAN ENERGY SUPPLY SECURITY

Energy has still drawn substantial attention for both developing and industrialised countries in the aspect of the needs of their economies, businesses and households. For Ukraine as a resource-rich economy, energy security and the efficiency of the energy sector are the bases for the national security of Ukraine. It has been triggered by the annexation of the Ukrainian Crimea by Russia and Russia-Ukraine war today. All these problems have urged Ukraine to determine modern energy policy and a national energy security model in the light of the concepts of energy security in the 21st century. As it is known, the energy crises between Russia and Ukraine directly affect the security of European Union energy supply in the context of natural gas flows. The main argument of this study is as follows: The Russia-Ukraine war has severely affected the energy security of Ukraine and this situation has led the European Union countries to finally consider taking steps to diversify the supply and to prevent further deterioration of the EU energy supply security. In this context, the article will analyse how the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war on Ukrainian energy security will affect EU energy supply security.

LSTM-Based Gasoline Price Prediction - An Example of Gasoline 95# in Beijing

Gasoline, as one of the indispensable energy sources in the global economy, the stability of its price has an important impact on national energy security and economic development. This study aims to improve the accuracy of gasoline price prediction through the use of Long Short-Term Memory Network (LSTM). By collecting and analyzing the historical price data of No. 95 gasoline in Beijing, the author constructed a prediction model based on LSTM, which is particularly suitable for dealing with long-term dependence in time series data. By comparing their performance to the traditional Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), LSTM demonstrates its advantages in processing complicated time series data. The validity of the model is verified by several evaluation metrics, including mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The results of the study indicate that the LSTM model shows high accuracy and reliability in predicting gasoline prices. In addition, future work will explore the introduction of multivariate analysis and hybrid network models to further the accuracy of the predictions and its generalization ability.

Global Geopolitical Changes and New/Renewable Energy Game

This study analyzes the impact of global geopolitical changes on new/renewable energy (NRE) policies and their roles in enhancing national energy security, elevating international stature, and influencing the global energy market. Using game theory, it reveals how NRE policies promote technological innovation, diversify energy supply, and strengthen international collaboration, thus advancing the global energy system towards a low-carbon transition and improving international energy governance. NRE policies significantly enhance national energy security by reducing dependency on single energy sources, facilitate the global shift to low-carbon energy, and intensify international cooperation. The effectiveness of these policies in driving energy transformation is notable, and they are expected to remain crucial for global energy security and sustainable transition. Recommendations include strengthening the stability and security of energy supply chains through enhanced oversight, increasing investment in R&D and innovation to reduce costs, fostering international cooperation for better policy coordination, and implementing diversified energy policies to encourage the adoption of NRE. These measures will address challenges from global geopolitical dynamics and drive the global energy system towards sustainability and efficiency.

Assessment on the Operational Management Issues on the Wind Energy Technologies on National Energy Security

Assessment on the Operational Management Issues on the Wind Energy Technologies on National Energy Security

The Inversion Location of Microleakage Source and Diffusion Backward Tracing Method Based on 3D Visual Information Model of Salt-Cavern Gas Storage

Summary The safe and stable operation of underground gas storage makes a positive contribution to national energy security. To improve the efficiency of real-time monitoring and early warning of gas leakage accidents at the wellsite of salt-cavern gas storage, an inversion location of the gas microleakage source and a backward tracing method of leakage diffusion are proposed. Through building a 3D visual information model of the salt-cavern gas storage based on building information modeling (BIM) technology and combining it with the advantages of the gas sensors, the real-time inversion location of the microleakage source and diffusion backward tracing in the wellsite can be realized. First, multiple point-type laser methane sensors were used to monitor the leakage of some key zones in real time, and a pan/tilt/zoom (PTZ) scanning laser methane telemeter was used to realize the real-time multidimensional space monitoring on-site from horizontal 360° to vertical 180°. Second, a 3D integrated monitoring platform is established to analyze the gas leakage source by combining the monitoring data and improving the mesh interpolation points. Finally, the whole data and wellsite information are imported into the 3D integrated monitoring platform to realize the inversion location of the microleakage source and the real-time monitoring of the leakage and diffusion state in the whole region. The monitoring precision of gas leakage concentration can be up to 1.0 ppm, and the location distance is within 0.1 m based on the numerical simulation of the 3D model and actual detected data from sensors in the platform. Compared with the technical means of manual assisted leak location, this method effectively solves the difficult problem of leakage monitoring and location accurately in the gas storage and can timely reduce the expansion and impact of leakage accidents.

Evaluation Analysis of Small Capacity Rooftop Solar Electricity (PLTS) Development Plans at PT Pertamina Gas

Solar Power Plant (PLTS) is one type of new and renewable energy (EBT) generated from the Sun. Indonesia is a country that has considerable solar energy development potential of 4.8 Kw h/m2, but currently its utilization is still very low at only 0.01%. This study aims to evaluate the development plan of small-capacity rooftop solar power plants at oil and gas facilities owned by PT Pertamina Gas (Pertagas). This study uses PVSyst and Helioscope software to analyze the potential and efficiency of rooftop solar power plants. The results show that the planned installation of small-capacity rooftop solar power plants (±0.15 kW) in several Pertagas operational areas can support electricity supply for oil and gas distribution in Indonesia. The utilization of solar energy, which is one of the new renewable energy (EBT), is expected to increase the national energy mix in accordance with the government's target. This research provides evaluation and recommendations for the development of rooftop solar power plants at oil and gas facilities to support national energy independence and security.

A novel method to identify preferential flow paths by considering the time-varying effect of petrophysical parameters in ultra-high water-cut reservoirs

The continental clastic reservoirs mainly distributed in the eastern region of China are regarded as the “ballast stone” for ensuring national energy security. After long-term waterflooding, reservoir petrophysical parameters have changed drastically. When the ultra-high water-cut period is achieved, the preferential flow paths are widely distributed inside the reservoir, resulting in severe ineffective water circulation and high difficulty in inhibiting water cut rise and stabilizing oil production. Due to the slow calculation speed and low identification accuracy of the existing methods, it is crucial to propose a novel method to identify preferential flow paths by considering the time-varying impact of petrophysical parameters in ultra-high water-cut reservoirs. To tackle this issue, massive dynamic and static data are collected from typical water-drive reservoirs in the Daqing oilfield to analyze the dynamic characteristics of preferential flow wells and the time-variation laws of reservoir parameters. A rapid evaluation index system for preferential flow paths is thereafter established. By describing the time-variation of reservoir permeability and fluid apparent viscosity and introducing a dynamic flow resistance coefficient to infer the inter-well or inter-layer connectivity, a novel method with the time-varying effect of petrophysical parameters considered is developed to quickly identify preferential flow paths in ultra-high water-cut reservoirs. A critical criterion of preferential flow paths is further constructed. Finally, the proposed method is used to determine the spatial distribution of preferential flow paths in a typical block of the Daqing oilfield. Results demonstrate that, once a preferential flow path is formed, some distinct dynamic characteristics of injectors and producers will be exhibited. Based on the estimated dynamic flow resistance coefficient, the preferential flow paths are further classified into four types: non-preferential, primary preferential, intermediate preferential, and strong preferential flow paths. Using the proposed method, the identification accuracy of preferential flow paths exceeds 95%, and the identification speed is more than 10 times faster than the traditional methods.

Relationship of psychological capital, transformational leadership, and internal communication to work engagement in organizations

Organization A, which represents the country in the oil and gas industry and is tasked with managing oil and gas activities in Indonesia to ensure national energy security, requires employees with high work engagement. This requires enthusiasm, dedication, and perseverance to contribute fully to their work. However, human resource management surveys and several phenomena analyzed show that work engagement in Organization A is low. This research consists of two studies: a research study and an intervention study. This research aims to analyze the relationship between psychological capital (individual internal factors), transformational leadership (individual external factors), and internal communication (organizational factors) on work engagement using a sample of 267 employees of Organization A. Using a quantitative design supported by qualitative data, and found that individual psychological capital, transformational leadership style, and internal communication in the organization significantly predicted work engagement. Among these factors, internal communication predicted work engagement beyond psychological capital and transformational leadership. An intervention study involving 23 participants was designed to determine the effectiveness of an internal communication strategy training program in increasing work engagement. Results from the intervention study showed significant improvements in participants' pre-test and post-test scores, indicating the effectiveness of the program in increasing work engagement.

Integrated membrane process of tubular ultrafiltration-nanofiltration-electrodialysis-reverse osmosis for treating fracturing flowback fluid

As an underground source of natural gas, shale gas is important for ensuring national energy security and promoting the “dual carbon” target. However, shale gas extraction produces flowback fluid that requires efficient treatment to avoid negative impacts on the environment and human health. In this study, a pilot plant was constructed to implement a novel membrane-integrated process to treat fracturing flowback fluid. This process employs an aeration reaction sedimentation (ARS) tank and a tubular ultrafiltration (TUF) membrane for pretreatment, followed by three separate membranes for nanofiltration (NF), electrodialysis (ED), and reverse osmosis (RO). The pretreatment removed 99.3% of total hardness, 99.4% of total suspended solids (TSS), and 88.1% of total organic carbon (TOC). Four different types of TUF membranes were tested and compared. It was also found that physico-chemical cleaning of the TUF membrane using the ceramic particle technology resulted in a flux recovery rate of up to 98%. In addition, the NF and ED membranes can remove 99.4% of Na2SO4 and 90% of NaCl, respectively, resulting in an 85.6% decrease in TSS. Water recovery rate of the total system can reach 90%. Based on concept of sustainable green development, carbon footprint of integrated membrane process for treating fracturing flowback fluid was approximately 86.7 kgCO2 eq lower than that of traditional process. Low carbon emissions and no generation of secondary pollutants have become the keys to treat fracturing wastewater. In summary, the integrated TUF-NF-ED-RO process based on membranes is very promising for treating fracturing flowback fluid.

Research on the Development and Policy Evolution of CCUS Industry at Home and Abroad

CCUS is internationally recognized as one of the three major pathways to achieve carbon neutrality goals. It is an important choice for realizing zero emissions from large-scale fossil energy utilization and a feasible technological solution to offset carbon emissions in industries such as power, steel, and cement where emissions reductions are challenging. Systematic analysis of the development and policy evolution of the CCUS industry at home and abroad can provide theoretical basis and practical guidance for China's energy transition and development under the background of carbon emission peaking and achieving carbon neutrality. Guided by the strategic goals of national energy security, carbon emission peaking, and achieving carbon neutrality, this study aims to analyze the global development process and stage characteristics of the CCUS industry, investigate the supporting policies in the CCUS field and their evolution patterns, summarize the current status and trends of the CCUS industry at home and abroad, and provide reference for the implementation of national energy green and low-carbon transformation and the construction of a new energy system. In terms of industry, European and American countries emphasize national-level technological guidance and macro-control. The United States has introduced the progressive 45Q tax credit policy, and the European Union has included CCUS in its carbon trading system. The US National Carbon Capture Center provides a testing environment and facilities for CCUS technology research and development, and has established a carbon dioxide industry cluster and transportation hub. In terms of policies, tax credits and carbon trading policies in Europe and America have attracted various types of capital investment, establishing a relatively complete legal framework system. These regions have been leading in CCUS technology research and deployment, holding dominant positions and decision-making power in mainstream international CCUS organizations such as the CSLF, IEA, GCCSI, and OGCI. This study benchmarks the forward-looking and strategic development status of the CCUS industry at home and abroad, elucidates the challenges facing CCUS industry development, and proposes future trends and policy support needs for the CCUS industry. The research reveals that Europe and America emphasize national-level technological guidance and macro-control, focusing on the construction of regional industrial networks and having established a relatively complete legal and regulatory framework system. Compared to other countries, China needs to establish national-level guidance on CCUS development, regional carbon dioxide capture and transportation networks, and enact specific laws, regulations, and technical standards for CCUS.

Long-Term Energy System Modelling for a Clean Energy Transition and Improved Energy Security in Botswana’s Energy Sector Using the Open-Source Energy Modelling System

This research examines Botswana’s significant reliance on coal and imported fossil fuels for electricity generation, contributing to high carbon emissions and energy insecurity influenced by volatile fuel prices and supply challenges. The study utilizes the Open-Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) to explore cost-effective renewable energy strategies to meet Botswana’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and enhance energy security by 2050, analysing six scenarios: Least Cost (LC), Business-As-Usual (BAU), Net Zero by 2050 (NZ), Coal Phase Out by 2045 (CPO), Fossil Fuel Phase Out by 2045 (FFPO), and Import Phase Out by 2045 (IMPPO). Our key findings highlight the critical role of solar technologies—photovoltaic (PV), storage, and concentrated solar power (CSP)—in transitioning to a sustainable energy future, especially under the Net Zero and Import Phase Out scenarios. This research demonstrates the economic and environmental benefits of transitioning away from fossil fuels, with the Fossil Fuel Phase Out scenario yielding a USD 31 million saving over the Business-As-Usual approach and reducing investment costs by USD 2 billion, albeit with a slight increase in light fuel oil imports. The study underscores the need for substantial capital investments, particularly in the Net Zero and Import Phase Out scenarios, necessitating private sector financing. Policy recommendations include adopting detailed strategies for solar PV and storage expansion, updating renewable energy targets, phasing out coal and natural gas, and bolstering the regulatory framework. These strategies are crucial for Botswana to achieve decarbonization and energy independence, aligning with global climate goals and national energy security objectives.