National Energy Security Research Articles

Shale gas investment decision-making: Green and efficient development under market, technology and environment uncertainties

The investment in shale gas green and efficient development in China faces many uncertain factors that affect the investment decision-making of enterprises, which contributes to China's low-carbon energy transformation and national energy security. Based on the characteristics of China's shale gas resource development and considering the uncertainties in the aspects of market, technology and environment, this paper proposes a real option model to evaluate investment decision-making of China’s shale gas development and uses the Least Square Monte Carlo simulation to solve the investment values and optimal investment timings of shale gas low, moderate, high and ultrahigh productivities under four combination scenarios of financial subsidy and/or carbon emission trading. The results show that the current investment environment in China is not suitable for immediate investment in shale gas development projects. Investors can invest immediately when the initial average daily production reaches at least 30 × 104 m3. And financial subsidy and carbon emission trading help advance the optimal investment timings. According to a sensitivity analysis, appropriate increases in financial subsidy, shale gas price, absolute value of the drift rate of drilling and completion cost and environmental external benefit coefficient are found to improve the investment value and advance the optimal investment timing, while drilling and completion cost and production decline rate have the opposite effect. Therefore, to stimulate the investment, the government and enterprises should adopt some measures such as addressing key problems on technology and equipment, flexibly adjusting subsidy policies and driving forward the carbon emission trading market.

Potensi Pengembangan Industri Biomassa Wood Pellet di Indonesia dengan Analisis BCG dan SWOT

Energy needs in Indonesia tend to increase from year to year due to population growth and economic growth. This is a challenge for national energy security to be able to balance the amount of supply with the amount of demand (it is estimated that demand in 2035 will be three times higher than the current demand). Biomass is an environmentally friendly fuel that can be used as a substitute for fossil fuels to reduce global warming. Indonesia is believed to have the potential to become one of the main players in the world wood pellet industry. However, Indonesia's wood pellet production is still relatively small, which is around 80,000 tons per year. Therefore, it is important to dig deeper. To analyze the potentials associated with the Wood Pellet Biomass Industry in Indonesia, two methods can be used, namely BCG analysis and SWOT analysis. From the BCG analysis, it is found that Indonesia is in the Question Mark position for the wood pellet industry, with the value of market growth rate, and relative market share of 87.2270943% and 0.08756403 respectively. Thus, the most suitable SWOT strategy to be applied to the Question Mark position is the SO (Strength-Opportunity) strategy, namely; maximizing the natural resources owned, starting from the availability of land and the availability of existing plants to meet national energy and international markets, as well as supporting the Paris protocol policy

Goals on the road: institutional innovations in carbon peak and carbon neutrality

ABSTRACT A low-carbon economy is not only vital to human survival but also to national energy security. The dual goals of carbon emission include those of a carbon peak and carbon neutrality, which are necessary for realizing new development patterns and promoting high-quality development in China. This study is focused on the innovation mechanism as applied to the dual goals of carbon emission, and two issues are considered – the overall carbon peak and carbon neutrality situation from resource tax and power reform perspective and the construction of a long-term mechanism to address environmental threats, such as smog. The continuous use of endogenous mechanisms to regulate the production and consumption behaviors of enterprises and people, as well as the means by which China may fully use its economic power to promote green, low-carbon, sustainable development are emphasized and analyzed.

RDE Design Strategy for Indonesia Experimental NPP

Reaktor Daya Eksperimental (RDE) is developed as a chain to enhancing capacity Building. And, this is Indonesia Nuclear Energy Agency (BATAN) Authority. The activity is made based on the basic rules that is written on Act number 17, 2007, Long Term of National Development Plan (RPJPN 2005-2025) and Government Decree number 14, 2015 on Master Plan of National Industry Development 2015-2035 (RIPIN 2015-2035). It is written strongly that Nuclear Energy is considered to be commenced in 2020. Hence, on June 22, 2016, Mr. President Joko Widodo made a statement that RDE is supported fully to be constructed. It may initiate international collaboration among countries, and local as well. The main goal of initiating the RDE design Program, beside developing the national capability as a nuclear reactor technology provider by mastering the design, construction project management, commissioning and operation of a nuclear power reactor, is to mastering nuclear power plant that to be able to be scaled-up and commercialized to support the national energy security. This paper describes the design project strategy, that include design features, Safety Features, Plant Safety and Operational Performances, Instrumentation and Control Systems, Plant Layout Arrangement, Design and Licensing Status, Fuel Cycle Approach, Waste Management and Disposal Plan, finally Development Milestones as well. RDE’s design experience has brought Indonesia to the nuclear power plant gate. The site permit process is on hand, and design approval has been started. It is clear that the role of stakeholder involvement is important. And, how the Cooperation has been able to reduce the price of NPP development. Hence, the communication strategy with BAPETEN, is holding another key. Meanwhile, the influences coming from internally BATAN’s management, external political, influences, as well as foreign politics, play a strong role in the NPP development scene in Indonesia. Step regulation two, approval design, unfinished. It’s still got to go on.

Connotation, innovation and vision of “carbon neutrality”

Global climate change caused by geological processes is one of the main causes of the 5 global mass extinctions in geological history. Human industrialization activities have caused serious damage to the ecosystem, the greenhouse effect of atmospheric CO2 has intensified, and the living environment is facing threats and challenges. Carbon neutrality is the active action and common goal of mankind in the face of the climate change crisis, therefore, probing into its theoretical and technological connotation, scientific and technological innovation system has far-reaching significance and broad prospects. Studies indicate that (1) Carbon neutrality reflects the theoretical connotations of “energy science” and “carbon neutrality science”, including technical connotations of carbon emission reduction, zero carbon emission, negative carbon emission, and carbon trading. (2) Carbon neutrality spawns new industries such as carbon industry centering on CO2 capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS, or CO2 capture and storage CCS), and hydrogen industry centering on green hydrogen. “Gray carbon” and “black carbon” are the two application attributes of CO2. “Carbon+”, “Carbon−”, and “Carbon=” are three carbon-neutral products and technologies. (3) China faces three major challenges in achieving the goal of carbon neutrality: first, energy transition is large in scale and the cycle is short; Second, there are many problems in the process of energy transition, such as security uncertainties, economic utilization, and unpredictable disruptive technologies; Third, after transition, we may face new key techno-logical “bottlenecks” and “broken chain” of key mineral resources. (4) Based on current knowledge to predict the top 10 disruptive technologies and industries in the energy field: underground coal gasification, in-situ conversion process of medium and low-mature shale oil, CCUS/CCS, hydrogen energy and fuel cells, bio-photovoltaic power generation, space-based solar power generation, optical storage smart micro-grid, super energy storage, controllable nuclear fusion, wisdom energy Internet. Five strategic projects will be implemented, including energy conservation and efficiency improvement, carbon reduction and sequestration, scientific and technological innovation, emergency reserve and policy support. (5) In the future, different types of energy will have different orientations. Coal will play the role of ensuring the national energy strategy “reserve” and “guarantee the bottom line”. Petroleum will play the role of ensuring national energy security “urgent need” and the “cornerstone” of raw materials in people's livelihood. Natural gas will play the role in ensuring national energy “safety” and “best partner” of new energy. New energy will play the role in ensuring the “replacement” and “main force” of the national energy strategy. (6) Carbon neutrality is a major practice of the green industrial revolution, carbon reduction energy revolution, and ecological technology revolution, which will bring new and profound changes to human society, the environment and the economy. (7) Carbon neutrality needs to follow the four principles of “disruptive breakthroughs in technology, guarantee of energy security, realization of economic feasibility, and controllable social stability”. We should rely on technological innovation and management changes to ensure the realization of national energy “independence” and carbon neutrality goal, and make China's contribution to the construction of a livable earth, green development, and ecological civilization.

Life cycle assessment of underground coal mining in China

Coal is not only the main fossil fuel in China but also a pollution source. To evaluate the impact of coal production on the environment, a life cycle assessment (LCA) was conducted on the mining process of a typical coal mine in China by using the SimaPro 9.0.0 software. The Ecoinvent v3 database was used to provide the background data, and midpoint results with uncertainty information were calculated using the ReCiPe Midpoint (H) method. After normalising the midpoint results, fossil depletion was identified as the most predominant environmental impact category, followed by marine ecotoxicity, freshwater ecotoxicity, climate change, freshwater eutrophication, and human toxicity. The contribution analysis indicates that coal mining activities, consumption of steel and electricity, and mine ventilation are the key processes causing the above-mentioned environmental impact categories, which should be paid special attention. According to the sensitivity analysis, the primary countermeasures for addressing the environmental issues are to reduce the mining activities and improve the efficiency of coal mining and utilisation. In addition, the quantitative and comparative analyses show that the gas extraction production mode is beneficial to the environment. Finally, technical measures were proposed to promote green and sustainable development of the coal industry. This research can provide guidance for ensuring national energy security and promoting healthy development of the national economy.

Assessment of crop residues-based electricity generation potential for energy security in Bangladesh

About 65.82% of total electricity generation in Bangladesh come from domestic natural gas. Natural gas reserves are expected to deplete and become commercially unviable by 2030 at the current consumption rate, threatening the nation's energy security. Authors in this study investigated surplus crop residues availability and their electricity generation potential in 2018–19 and forecast to 2029–30 for establishing a biomass-based electricity generation system. It was estimated that 35.834 MT surplus crop residues could produce 42.560 TWh electricity, meeting 68.60% electricity demand in 2018–19. Forecast estimate showed that 50.561 TWh electricity generation potential of 42.553 MT surplus crop residues could supply 41.90% of forecasted electricity demand in 2029–30 in Bangladesh. Rangpur division possesses the largest share of crop residues availability and the Barisal Division the least. Results of this study could provide baseline data for establishing biomass-based electricity plants.

How will China's coal industry develop in the future? A quantitative analysis with policy implications

Achieving sound development in China's coal industry is of great significance for ensuring national energy security and achieving the goal of environmental and atmospheric governance. To analyse the present situation in China's coal industry and provide suggestions for its comprehensive development, a Coal Industry Development Index (CIDI) system is declared including 28 secondary indexes associated with 6 dimensions. A minimum-deviation combination weighting method is proposed to obtain more reasonable synthetic index weights than other methods, and a comprehensive evaluation model is constructed based on grey theory and TOPSIS to calculate the CIDI from 2011 to 2019. The results show that the CIDI has a fluctuating upward trend year by year, as the government and enterprises have attached great importance to coal production, and a series of measures have promoted the intelligent and safe development of China's coal industry. However, clean and green production first fluctuates and then rises, indicating that coal industry has not fully realized clean production and efficient utilization and is still the key controlled object of carbon emission reduction. Therefore, investments in the cultivation of coal market entity, resource guarantees and innovation-driven development ought to be strengthened in the future.

Towards a hydrogen economy – a sustainable pathway for global energy transition

Hydrogen is receiving increasing attention for achieving carbon abatement in various sectors, including transport, logistics, thermal engineering and industrial feedstock, etc. Hydrogen can also support distributed power supply that raises national energy security. Both commercial and industrial sectors share a common vision that increasing the cost-effectiveness of renewable hydrogen represents their strategic achievement towards substantial sustainability. This paper explains how hydrogen can play seven roles in the energy transition which include large-scale integration of renewable energy into the power grid, medium for storing and distributing energy across sectors and/or regions, a buffer to increase the electric system resilience and clean fuel for fuel cell vehicles to decarbonise transport. Besides, hydrogen can decarbonise building energy consumption and serve as feedstock using captured carbon. Power Assets Holdings Limited (PAH), a global investor in energy and utility-related business, has identified a hydrogen economy as a strategic vision in its business plan for zero carbon readiness in 2035 and a carbon-free business model in 2050. In this paper, the features and attributes of different hydrogen projects, such as H21 and InTEGRel in the UK and Hydrogen Park in South Australia, are discussed to demonstrate the commercial deployment of hydrogen power.

Production Data Analysis and Practical Applications in the Sulige Tight Gas Reservoir, Ordos Basin, China

Successful exploitation of tight sandstone gas is one of the important means to ensure the “increasing reserves and production” of the oil and gas initiative and also one of the important ways to ensure national energy security. To further improve the accuracy of historical matching of field data such as gas production and bottom-hole pressure during the production process of this type of gas reservoir, in this study, a new expression of wellbore pressure for the uniform flow of vertical fractured wells in Laplace space based on the point sink function model of vertical fractures in tight sandstone gas reservoirs is constructed. This innovation is based on a typical production data analysis plot of the Blasingame type that uses the numerical inversion decoupling mathematical equation. After analyzing the pressure and pressure derivative characteristics of each flow stage in the typical curves, a new technique of type-curve matching was proposed. In order to verify the correctness of the model and the application value of the field, based on the previous production data of Sulige Gas Field in China, a new set of production data diagnostic chart of tight sandstone gas reservoir was formed. A case analysis showed that the application of the production data analysis method and data diagnosis plot in the field accurately evaluated the development effect of the tight sandstone gas reservoirs, clarified the scale of effective sand bodies, and provided technical support for optimizing and improving the well pattern and realizing the efficient development of gas fields.

Feasibility assessment of bentonite drilling mud to improve the physical quality of loamy sand soil and water deficit of forest plant seedlings

Spent drilling mud (DM), a co-product during horizontal directional drilling operations, needs proper disposal to comply with social and environmental sustainability awareness, with one option being its cost-effective reuse as a soil amendment. The possibility was investigated of DM applications to improve the physical quality of loamy sand soil. The soil was treated with increasing DM contents in a laboratory at volumetric DM-to-soil ratios of 0:100 (DM0, no DM), 25:75 (DM25), 50:50 (DM50), 75:25 (DM75), and 100:0 (DM100, no soil). The mixtures were analyzed for water retention, available water capacity, water storage capacity, S-index, soil aggregate stability (SAS), and chemical quality based on pH, effective electrical conductivity (ECe), sodium adsorption ratio (SAR), and exchangeable sodium percentage (ESP). The optimal ratio of DM and the control (DM0) in the batch experiment were selected for application to three species of forest plant seedlings in the field. The results showed that DM positively influenced soil physical qualities. The water retention increased (from 10 to 67%) with increasing DM, but the most suitable ratio was DM25, considering its water storage capacity deviated the least (1.4%) from the optimal value. DM25 also produced the highest S-index (0.081). The SAR data increased with the drilling mud application rate (1.1 to 10.9). However, the DM25 pH remained at 7.7, with an ECe of 2.5 dS m−1, a SAR of 7.0, and an ESP of 9.2, which were still favorable regarding soil structure, as indicated by no decrease in SAS with added drilling mud. In the field experiment, DM25 also decreased the water deficit of the three species of forest plant seedlings, suggesting a positive attribution to other relevant soil-plant systems. DM could be a feasible option to improve soil physical quality, but further long-term experiments are necessary before applying it as a soil amendment in real situations. Implication statement With the demand in energy-driven economics, establishing national energy security nationwide in Thailand requires the installation capacity, transmission, and distribution pipelines. Horizontal directional drilling (HDD) operations are generally used to install underground pipelines, generating large amounts of drilling mud rich in sodium bentonite as a co-product. At present, drilling mud is becoming a more serious solid waste and has been raised in proper management. The best management practices are expected to reuse as a soil amendment, a cost-effective approach, for coarse-textured soils. Before any drilling mud application can be introduced to agriculture and the environment, we must clarify the optimal rate of drilling mud. This rate has to significantly improve soil physical quality associated with air-water capacity balance while minimizing the adverse effect of residual sodium to favor soil structure and sensitive plants.

The Natural Gas Supply of the Latvian Municipality during the Local Energy Crisis

Abstract Natural gas is an essential element of the Latvian and the Baltic energy portfolio, so its supply disruption can seriously affect the national economy and energy security of our country. The article focuses on a basic case study of the natural gas supply to one of the Latvian municipalities, when the energy crisis is announced. It also marks potential vulnerabilities factors that may cause the natural gas supply shortages or disruption periods of different length for a wide spectrum of the Latvian natural gas consumers – starting with households and finishing with large industrial consumers and energy producers. A legal framework analysis along with an emergency natural gas supply review has been proposed as well, taking into account the actual distribution of the natural gas consumption among the urban energy users, which can be compared with references included into the Cabinet of Ministers Regulation No. 312 “Procedures for the Supply of Energy Users and Sale of Heating Fuel during Declared Energy Crisis and in Case of Endangerment to the State” (hereinafter – Regulation 312).

An Optimization Grey Bernoulli Model and Its Application in Forecasting Oil Consumption

Energy consumption in the world is mainly dependent on fossil energy, and oil is one of the main energy sources. Accurate prediction of oil consumption can provide an important basis for national energy security, which can provide reference and early warning for the implementation of the environmental strategy developed by the government. According to the nonlinearity of the energy system, this paper uses the principle of the grey nonlinear prediction model NGBM(1,1) to improve the background value of the model, and by the simulated annealing algorithm, we put forward the optimized grey nonlinear model ONGBM(1,1). At the same time, the model is applied to the oil consumption of China, Chile, Mexico, and Japan. Based on the validity analysis of the existing data of the four countries, the model ONGBM(1,1) is basically superior to the other six grey forecast models. Finally, ONGBM(1,1) is used to predict the oil consumption of the four countries in the next five years, which can provide effective information for energy economic policy.

Nuclear energy development self-management concept to support national energy security and national defense (case study: commercial NPP plans in the West Kalimantan region)

Indonesia’s energy consumption is still increasing, including in the West Kalimantan Region, by 8.2% growth in electricity customers. During this time, West Kalimantan still fulfilling its energy needs in imports around 30% of energy supply (200 MW) from Sarawak, Malaysia. This condition can weaken national energy security and national sovereignty because it has not independently met its energy needs from domestic sources. At the same time, the potential for local energy sources in West Kalimantan is to get uranium deposits of 45,730 tons, which are nuclear fuel. Qualitative Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) research method to find the concept of self-management based on 4A (Availability, Affordability, Acceptability, Accessibility) + 1S (Sustainability). The results of the self-management concept obtained by integrating aspects: (1) Accessibility and Acceptability in the form of priorities for improving top-down and bottom-up cross-sectoral coordination management systems, namely the central and regional governments in the development of nuclear power plants with the involvement of local communities from the beginning of planning; (2) Affordability of making technical designs by BATAN with SMR (Small Modular Reactor) technology in the construction of commercial-scale nuclear power plants in terms of the availability of local resources as nuclear raw materials.

Company participation in supporting national energy security through collective installation of rooftop solar panel of employees’ houses as an effort to accelerate increased utilization of solar energy

To support the achievement of government targets in the New and Renewable Energy Program, and to play an active role in responding to global issues related to energy, environment, global warming, and energy conservation issues, large and medium-sized companies can encourage them to use renewable energy. energy through a campaign for all employees to take advantage of the solar panel system in every home, which can be integrated with the electricity grid of the State Electricity Company (PLN). The direct benefit that employees get from using a solar panel system is that it can reduce household electricity bills. The campaign was continued by realizing a collective rooftop solar panel installation program for employee rooftops with an instalment system that was not burdensome for 24 to 36 months, which was deducted from wages through the payroll system, of course taking into account the Company’s ability to fund the purchase and installation of rooftop solar panels. With this program, assuming a total capacity of 200 kWp in each company (around 100 employee houses), the maximum cost impact for the company is around Rp. 3.6 billion. If this program can be implemented simultaneously by all large and medium-sized companies in Indonesia, the potential for achieving solar energy use in 7 months could reach 6.72 GWp. Meanwhile, the Indonesian government is targeting the use of solar energy for the national energy mix in 2025 at 6.5 GW. With the participation of companies and supporting them, it is one way to achieve the target of using solar energy in Indonesia, which is 6.5 GW by 2025.

Forecasting Oil Demand with the Development of Comprehensive Tourism

The prediction of oil demand is an important issue related to national energy security and economic development. With the COVID-19 outbreak, the international oil price fluctuates sharply, and oil consumption growth slows down. Therefore, accurate prediction of oil demand plays an important practical and theoretical role. In this paper, in accordance with the Chinese state policy stimulation of domestic demand for energy resources, we have selected 15 major factors and analyzed their influence on the domestic oil demand from the perspective of comprehensive tourism analysis. Based on the data analysis of oil consumption from 2000 to 2018, four neutral network methods are used to predict the influence of selected factors on oil consumption demand of China. The experimental results show that the best correlation is obtained between domestic tourism revenue and total tourism expenditure factors and oil demand, and the Layer Recurrent Neutral Network method has high prediction accuracy, stronger stability, and the best performance.

Dinamika dan Karakter Produk Hasil Dekarboksilasi Sabun Hidroksi Pelargonat

The development of biofuel have a lot of advantages for national growth, such as, imports reduction of fuel and increasing national energy security and sustainability. Therefore, biofuel production technology for substitution of fuel oil especially gasoline, is very important. One of technology method to produce biogasoline is decarboxylation of pelargonic hydroxy metal soap. Magnesium hydroxy pelargonate [Mg(OH)(OOCC8H17)] can be decarboxylated to produce n-octane [C8H18] and magnesium carbonate [MgCO3] which at temperatures close to 500oC decompose into MgO and CO2. The objectives of this research is to investigate comprehensively the dynamics and character liquid products from decarboxylation of pelargonic hydroxy soap [Mg(OH)OOCC8H17] reaction at temperature range of 250-350oC.

How Many Wells? Exploring the Scope of Shale Gas Production for Achieving Gas Self-Sufficiency in Poland

Poland has been estimated to possess large volumes of technically recoverable shale gas resources, which has raised national hopes for increasing energy security and building export capacity. In this paper, we aim to examine political claims and hopes that Poland could achieve natural gas self-sufficiency and even become a gas exporter by harnessing domestic shale potential. We do so by relying on well-by-well production experience from the Barnett Shale in the USA to explore what scope of shale gas extraction, in terms of the number of wells, would likely be required to achieve such national expectations. With average well productivity equal to the Barnett Shale, at least 420 wells per year would be necessary to meet the domestic demand of 20 Bcm in 2030. Adding Poland’s potential export capacity of five Bcm of gas per year would necessitate at least 540 wells per year. Such a significant amount of drilling and hydraulic fracturing would require reconsideration and verification of national energy security plans and expectations surrounding shale gas production. A more informed public debate on technical aspects of extraction would be required, as extensive fracking operations could potentially have implications in terms of environmental risks and local land-use conflicts.

Securitized Referent Objects in Brazilian Defence Documents: Natural Resources, Critical Infrastructure and Energy Security

Abstract How do Brazil’s defence documents incorporate natural resources and critical infrastructure as political and strategic components of the national energy security framework? After presenting the contemporary international landscape on the subject, which is marked by rising powers and geopolitics, the paper explains the theory and the conceptual foundations that support the claim of a securitization movement on natural resources and critical infrastructure that relates to energy security in response to the absence of existential threats to Brazil. Following this effort, the text reflects upon and analyses how the matter has developed from 2005 to 2016 in Brazilian defence policies and in national defence strategies. By applying securitization theory to the case study, the final remarks imply the need for a reflection on the importance of incorporating the geopolitics of natural resources and critical infrastructure related to energy security in defence thinking.

URGENSI PENGATURAN PENGEMBANGAN ENERGI TERBARUKAN SEBAGAI WUJUD MENDUKUNG KETAHANAN ENERGI NASIONAL

Energy sovereignty in Indonesia is experiencing problems with a decline in national energy security. Indonesia's energy system is currently facing serious challenges. The imbalance in the condition of energy supplies with national energy needs, especially the oil and gas sector and efforts to fulfill national energy needs in a sustainable manner are the main problems of this nation in the energy sector. It is absolutely necessary to have strategic efforts in the field of creating new and renewable energy. Although the government has issued various policies to catch up, but to realize national energy security, it is necessary to urgently regulate the development of renewable energy as a form of supporting national energy security. As for the formulation of the problems raised in this study are: support national energy security in Indonesia? 2) what is the urgency of regulating the development of renewable energy as a form of supporting national energy security? This research will use normative juridical research and supported by empirical juridical research so that it will be able to see the conditions of developing renewable energy as a form of supporting national energy security in Indonesia. To realize this, it is necessary to urgently regulate the development of renewable energy as a form of supporting national energy security.