National Emission Reduction Targets Research Articles

Refining greenhouse gas emission factors for Indonesian peatlands and mangroves to meet ambitious climate targets

For countries' emission-reduction efforts under the Paris Agreement to be effective, baseline emission/removals levels and reporting must be as transparent and accurate as possible. For Indonesia, which holds among the largest area of tropical peatlands and mangrove forest in the world, it is particularly important for these high-carbon ecosystems to produce high-accuracy greenhouse gas inventory and to improve national forest reference emissions level/forest reference level. Here, we highlight the opportunity for refining greenhouse gas emission factors (EF) of peatlands and mangroves and describe scientific challenges to support climate policy processes in Indonesia, where 55 to 59% of national emission reduction targets by 2030 depend on mitigation in Forestry and Other Land Use. Based on the stock-difference and flux change approaches, we examine higher-tier EF for drained and rewetted peatland, peatland fires, mangrove conversions, and mangrove on peatland to improve future greenhouse gas flux reporting in Indonesia. We suggest that these refinements will be essential to support Indonesia in achieving Forest and Other Land Use net sink by 2030 and net zero emissions targets by 2060 or earlier.

An interregional environmental assessment framework: revisiting environmental Kuznets curve in China.

Achieving the national emission reduction targets requires joint efforts of all jurisdictions, whose sustainable development is affected by complex economic and environmental interactions among regions. An interregional environmental assessment (IREA) framework is constructed for China using multiregional input-output techniques to unravel the carbon emission connections behind interregional economic activities. Then, consumption-based emission accounting is applied in sustainability assessment, in comparison with production-based environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) tests to examine the role of regional connections in shaping EKC. Empirical results expose significant asymmetric CO2 transfer among regions in China, where the Central and Western regions have become CO2 haven for the Eastern region. EKC is valid at the national level and manifests marked regional differences between production- and consumption-based curves. The pollution haven effect alters the EKC curve by expediting the emission peak in the developed Eastern region while delaying it in the developing Western region. Thus, revisiting EKCs in the IREA framework reveals that ignoring interregional connections would lead to misleading results. Only when both production- and consumption-based EKCs transcend their turning points can we claim that environmental governance has ushered in a new era of sustainable development.

Nuclear power in a de-carbonised future? A critical discourse analysis of nuclear energy debates and media framing in Australia

ABSTRACT The growing threat of climate change and global tensions resulting in energy shortages has led many countries to reconsider the merit of nuclear energy to meet national emissions reduction targets and provide domestic energy security. Australia's unique nuclear experience has led to a prohibition on building nuclear reactors, distinctive from other G20 countries. With Australia's energy transition underway, an exploration of the discourse surrounding nuclear energy in the national debate is timely to understand the barriers and opportunities for nuclear power in our energy future. This article investigates how nuclear energy is framed in media and by debate stakeholders, how this potentially constraints the energy source, and the influence of an increasingly carbon-conscious world on the debate. A critical discourse analysis of nuclear energy in Australia and semistructured interviews are used to understand the discourse landscape. The study finds that the discursive practises of politically conservative social actors engaged in the debate significantly shape how nuclear energy is perceived and received by the public, contributing to a polarised and politicised debate. It highlights the significance of climate change and energy security discourses in sustaining media salience whilst exposing the exclusionary nature of select nuclear energy rhetoric which limit the debate. Further research into public perceptions and discourses around nuclear energy in Australia is required given the need to decarbonise.

Emission pathways and mitigation options for achieving consumption-based climate targets in Sweden

National emission reduction targets under the Paris Agreement have a territorial focus, incentivizing mitigation actions domestically. Here we examine the theoretical basis for adopting complementary consumption-based net-zero emission targets and assess the consequences of adopting such proposed targets for Sweden. We apply scenario analyses based on a prospective lifecycle assessment framework. The framework is a hybrid of bottom-up simulations for passenger travel, construction and housing, and food, and top-down analyses for remaining consumption. In this work, we show how consumption-based climate targets may accentuate the need for new demand-side climate policies that contribute to reducing emissions along supply chains of products and services. Our scenario analysis suggests that combining advanced mitigation technologies with behavioral changes could reduce emissions from 9.8 tons of carbon dioxide equivalents per capita in 2019 to between 2.7 and 4.8 tons by 2045 for Swedish residents, depending on global decarbonization pathways.

Bridging national and provincial targets: Quantitative evidence for emissions reduction accountability in Korean provinces

As an international collective action to stop global warming, most nations submitted their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). To help ensure consistency and comparability of data between different countries, guidelines are provided by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Likewise, subnations would develop their local strategies to achieve a country's NDC. In South Korea, guidelines have been established to facilitate the consistent development of provincial emissions reduction strategies. But the guidelines lack clarity in terms of institutional elements: i) sectoral coverage, and ii) accounting method of greenhouse gas emissions. The primary goal of this study is to show that provincial strategies significantly depend on those two institutional elements. This study examines two scenario sets: i) including or excluding electricity and industrial sectors, and ii) direct or indirect emissions based on a NDC base storyline. For this purpose, we selected GCAM-Korea, a version of the Global Change Analysis Model specifically designed to work at the provincial level in Korea. Simulation results show that those two institutional elements play important roles in evaluating subnational emissions reduction potential. For example, in Chungcheongnam-do, a province in South Korea, the reduction rate from 2018 to 2030 is 53.9%, including the power and industrial sectors. However, when excluding these two sectors, the reduction rate significantly falls to 10.1%. For Gyeonggi-do, the reduction rate based on direct emissions is 9.3%, but it significantly increases to 28.6% when considering indirect emissions. The absence of well-defined methods may result in provinces adopting ineffective and disparate emissions reduction approaches, thereby jeopardizing the attainment of the national target. Consequently, to avert any failure in meeting the national emissions reduction target, it is crucial to furnish uniform and definitive guidelines to all local governments. This approach will ensure a cohesive effort towards greenhouse gas reduction throughout the country.

Combinatorial Auction of Used Cars Considering Pro-Environment Attribute: A Social Welfare Perspective

Air pollution is becoming more and more serious as the number of vehicles increases. To address such problems, many cities have implemented many measures, including the circular economy mode, in which used cars with low carbon emission are becoming important in the sustainable transportation and carbon abatement. Considering multi-attribute demand, this study designed combinatorial auction mechanism for the bidders of automobile enterprises on an online used-car platform to achieve social welfare maximization. Two kinds of attributes were considered, namely, price attribute and non-price attributes; the latter particularly included the pro-environment attribute based on an analysis of complementarity and substitutability. Moreover, the mechanism was proved to satisfy individual rational condition and incentive compatibility condition. Numerical application showed that preference for the pro-environment attribute can better realize social welfare and respond to national energy conservation and emission reduction targets. As a result, from the social welfare perspective, the multi-attribute combinatorial auction can provide a reference for more fair and effective allocation of used cars to bidders and can promote both buyer’s utility and seller’s income.

Green frontrunner or indebted culprit? Assessing Denmark’s climate targets in light of fair contributions under the Paris Agreement

This paper contributes to academic and policy debates about climate leadership by illustrating an approach to examining national emission reduction targets focusing on Denmark. Widely recognized as a climate leader, Denmark is cherished for both its historical track record and its current climate targets. With a target of 70% emissions reduction by 2030 compared to 1990 stipulated in national law, central actors in Danish policymaking claim that domestic climate policy is aligned with the Paris temperature goals and present Denmark as a ‘green frontrunner.’ We examine the pledges and targets enshrined in the Danish Climate Act in reference to a 1.5 °C global greenhouse gas budget using five different approaches to burden sharing. For all five approaches, we find that the Danish climate target is inadequate given the 1.5 °C goal. Moreover, when only looking at equity approaches for distributive climate justice globally, the Danish target appears drastically insufficient. Denmark is, in this sense, not a green frontrunner but rather an indebted culprit, challenging the dominant narrative in Danish climate policy. Our results thus call into question the premise of the claim of Danish climate leadership, which works to legitimize existing policy and obscure the many dimensions of climate change.

Climate policy and Canadian crop production: A qualitative study of farmers’ attitudes and perceptions towards nitrous oxide reductions

The pressure to change agricultural practices in order to mitigate emissions is high, with persisting environmental, social, and economic dimensions. In December 2020, the Government of Canada released A Healthy Environment and a Healthy Economy, a climate plan that proposed Canada's first national emission reduction target for the agricultural sector. This target aimed to reduce fertilizer-based emissions by 30 percent of 2020 levels by 2030. This target relies on the adoption of Best Management Practices for fertilizer use at the on-farm level. Choice to adopt the emission reduction strategies and practices is ultimately decided by the landowner, operator, and/or producer. The proposed target was met with significant resistance opposition from producers and producer groups across Canada's agricultural sector, particularly in western Canada, with claims that the target was the equivalent to a ban on fertilizer.This research aims to better understand the attitudes and perceptions towards the emission reduction target and more generally around emissions mitigation strategies within the crop sectors. This report takes a qualitative approach by conducting 26 h-long interviews with stakeholders along the production chain. Interviews with producers, geneticists, actors in crop inputs and manufacturing, and stakeholders in agricultural production policy and advocacy were conducted over July and August 2022. Participants were asked questions about climate change, the role of different levels of government in the development of emission regulations, potential strategies on a short- and long-term horizon basis, and incentives. Interviews were transcribed and categorically defined, highlighting reoccurring themes. These themes provide insight into awareness of different strategies considered by different actors within the agricultural supply chain, and potentially anticipate avenues which the Government of Alberta should prioritize in developing policies. Ensuring future protocols account for benchmarks of current agricultural operations and management is critical for accessible and producer-inclusive policy, that optimizes transition risks and secures the pathway forward, balancing the precarious equilibrium of burden on agricultural producers, food security, and sustainable, resilient agriculture.

Suitability evaluation and potential estimation of photovoltaic power generation and carbon emission reduction in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

The expansion of power development industry is facing enormous pressure to reduce carbon emissions in the context of global decarbonization. Using solar energy instead of traditional fossil energy to adjust energy structure is one of the important means for reducing carbon emissions. Existing research focuses on the evaluation of the generation potential of centralized or distributed photovoltaic power plants, rather than the comprehensive evaluation of multi-type power plants. Based on multi-source remote sensing data for information extraction and suitability evaluation, this paper develops a method to comprehensively evaluate the construction potential of multi-type photovoltaic power stations and determine the potential of photovoltaic power generation and carbon emission reduction on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). The results showed that estimating the power generation potential of only single-type photovoltaic power stations cannot accurately reflect the photovoltaic power generation potential of QTP. It is also demonstrated that the emission reduction effect of the photovoltaic power generation in all prefecture-level cities of QTP can meet national emission reduction targets, showing high annual power generation potential, of which 86.59% is concentrated in Qinghai province's Guoluo, Yushu, and Haixi. An accurate estimation of the photovoltaic power generation potential in QTP can provide a useful theoretical basis for developing carbon-saving and emission reduction strategies for clean energy in China.

Analysis of Carbon Emission Efficiency in the Yellow River Basin in China: Spatiotemporal Differences and Influencing Factors

A good grasp of the carbon emission efficiency (CEE) of the provinces in the Yellow River basin (YRB) in China, and its influencing factors, can help promote the sustainable development of the region and smooth realization of the national carbon emission reduction target. Based on stochastic frontier analysis (SFA), this paper calculates the CEE of nine provinces in the YRB from 2005 to 2019, and then, analyzes its spatial and temporal characteristics. The spatial Durbin model (SDM) with two-way fixed effects is selected to investigate the influencing factors of the CEE in the YRB. The results suggest that: (1) the overall CEE of the YRB shows a slow upward trend, and although the gap in CEE between provinces is large, it is slowly narrowing; (2) there is a significant negative spatial autocorrelation in the CEE of the provinces in the YRB; and (3) technological innovation capability, energy consumption structure, population density, and urban greening level are the most significant factors affecting the CEE of the YRB. Both population density and urban greening level have a positive effect on the improvement of the CEE of the provinces themselves and of the whole YRB, and there is also a spatial spillover effect on the improvement of CEE due to population density. Technological innovation capability and energy consumption structure had a negative impact on the overall CEE of the province and the basin during the research period. This study may have some reference value for improving the CEE of the YRB.

Review of Policies for Indonesia’s Electricity Sector Transition and Qualitative Evaluation of Impacts and Influences Using a Conceptual Dynamic Model

Indonesia’s final energy demand is projected to increase by 70% in the next decade, with electricity expected to account for 32%. The increasing electricity demand poses a potential threat to national emissions reduction targets since fossil fuels generated 86% of the electricity in 2018, associated to 50% of the national CO2 emissions. Indonesia plans to reduce its CO2 emissions by 29% by increasing the total electricity generated from renewables, using a set of market-based and regulatory policies. However, economic, social, and environmental issues may arise from the widespread adoption of renewable energy. This study explores the economic, social, and environmental effects of renewable energy policies in the electricity sector. Our work presents an advance over previous studies that attempted to understand the electricity sector energy transition from a system perspective by exploring the structural feedback between it and economic, energy, and environmental systems. This enables the assessment of different energy policies using more macro indicators, which further emphasize the novelty of our work. A combination of system dynamics modelling and a policy analysis framework was applied to explore these issues. Our study proposes a dynamic hypothesis that the price of energy increases over time, in the absence of substitution, becoming a limiting factor in the transition to renewables in the electricity sector. The fiscal budget was found to be a bottleneck for renewable energy adoption in the electricity sector in Indonesia. We found that a fossil fuel depletion premium could be a potential supporting policy to enable the smooth phasing-out of fossil fuels and support a sustainable energy transition.

Analysis of Carbon Emission Projections and Reduction Potential of Resource-Dependent Urban Agglomerations from the Perspective of Multiple Scenarios-A Case Study of Hu-Bao-O-Yu Urban Agglomeration.

The Hu-Bao-O-Yu urban agglomeration is an important energy exporting and high-end chemical base in China, and is an important source of carbon emissions in China. The early achievement of peak carbon emissions in this region is particularly crucial to achieving the national carbon emission reduction targets. However, there is a lack of multi-factor system dynamics analysis of resource-dependent urban agglomerations in Northwest China, as most studies have focused on single or static aspects of developed urban agglomerations. This paper analyses the relationship between carbon emissions and their influencing factors, constructs a carbon emission system dynamics model for the Hu-Bao-O-Yu urban agglomeration, and sets up different single regulation and comprehensive regulation scenarios to simulate and predict the carbon peak time, peak value, and emission reduction potential of each city and urban agglomeration under different scenarios. The results show that: (1) Hohhot and Baotou are expected to reach peak carbon by 2033 and 2031 respectively, under the baseline scenario, while other regions and the urban agglomeration will not be able to reach peak carbon by 2035. (2) Under single regulation scenarios, the effect of factors other than the energy consumption varies across cities, but the energy consumption and environmental protection input are the main factors affecting carbon emissions in the urban agglomeration. (3) A combination of the economic growth, industrial structure, energy policy, environmental protection, and technology investment is the best measure to achieve carbon peaking and enhance the carbon emission reduction in each region as soon as possible. In the future, we need to coordinate the economic development, energy structure optimisation and transformation, low-carbon transformation of industry, strengthen research on carbon sequestration technology, and further increase the investment in environmental protection to make the Hu-Bao-O-Yu urban agglomeration a resource-saving urban agglomeration with an optimal emission reduction.

Impact of automated battery sorting for mineral recovery from lithium-ion battery recycling in the United States

The United States has identified several lithium-ion battery materials as critical for reaching the national emission reduction targets that have been set in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, with few natural resources available domestically, there is a rapidly growing focus on the development of a domestic recycling industry to recover these materials from end-of-life batteries. In this paper, we use the Lithium-Ion Battery Resources Assessment (LIBRA) system dynamics model to evaluate the impact of automated battery sorting technology in terms of the shares of cobalt and nickel that are recovered through recycling. Findings show that automated sorting has clear benefits over manual sorting methods by helping recyclers selectively process high-cobalt batteries. By maximizing cobalt recovery, recycling becomes more profitable and drives greater investment in recycling capacity, resulting in a higher share of nickel and cobalt recovered from EOL batteries over time.

Embodied Carbon Emissions in China’s Building Sector: Historical Track from 2005 to 2020

China’s large-scale construction has led to massive energy consumption and carbon emissions. The embodied carbon emissions (ECs) of China’s building sector play a key role in realizing national emission reduction targets. Currently, the understanding of the status quo of ECs is vague and inconsistent, and the existing accounting models still have several limitations. Therefore, this study develops two improved models (i.e., the process-based and the input-output-based life cycle assessment models) and dynamic accounting datasets to reveal historical trends and emission characteristics of ECs from 2005 to 2020. The results show that the total ECs in 2020 were as high as 2.28 billion tCO2, accounting for 25.2% of China’s total energy-related carbon emissions. The indirect ECs are the largest contributor, representing 95.9% of the total building ECs. The ECs increased quickly at first and entered a plateau, stable at about 2.2 billion tCO2 after 2015. From 2005 to 2020, the total building ECs contributed 38.7% to the national carbon emission growth, while the intensity of ECs showed a downward trend, indicating that the increase in China’s building ECs is scale-driven. This study provides sound methodological, and data support for emission tracing and the low-carbon development of China’s building sector.

Strategies for Indonesia’s Agricultural Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation

<p>Agriculture is known as one of the sectors that both contributes to and is the victim of climate change. Under the adverse impacts of climate change, producing more food is an advance challenge. Rainfall and temperature controls crop growing seasons. The frequency and intensity of the occurrence of floods and droughts are increasing, which causes crop yield decline. On the other hand, climate change is also affected by agriculture sector’s emissions. Agriculture in Indonesia emitted about 104 Mt (million tonnes) CO<sub>2</sub>e in 2020 with the main sources of emission were from lowland rice, livestock enteric fermentation, direct N<sub>2</sub>O from soil and manure and indirect N<sub>2</sub>O from soil. Emission reduction strategies in Indonesia’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) include the use of low-emission lowland rice crops varieties, implementation of efficient water management in lowland rice cultivation, manure management for biogas, and feed quality improvement for livestock. Moreover, for reaching the national emission reduction target some additional actions are needed, including: intensified use of organic fertilizers, organic village, balance fertilization which is mostly associated with improving N use efficiency, and raising water in peatland farming. At the national level, climate change policy is more focused on mitigation ambition above that of NDC. Therefore, the country needs to look for ways that combine climate change mitigation and ensuring food security. All policies of mitigation must be in synchrony with adaptation since adaptation is the key for successful maintenance of food security. <strong></strong></p>

Research on the Theory and Development of Carbon Emissions Trading Market under the Background of ‘Double Carbon’

In recent years, China’s carbon trading market has achieved good emission reduction results but it is not yet perfect. Carbon trading mechanisms are facing huge challenges. Through the analysis of the current industry carbon trading market, the problems existing affecting the process of the carbon emission trading market are deeply discussed, providing a methodology for the regional carbon trading mechanism and the implementation of the national macro carbon emission reduction targets. It puts forward three challenges to carbon trading market cognition, carbon trading subject and carbon emission reduction technology, to contribute to achieving carbon peak, carbon neutralization.

Examining local community understanding of mangrove carbon mitigation: A case study from Ca Mau province, Mekong River Delta, Vietnam

Payments for carbon services (C-PFES) is a mechanism used to meet national emission reduction targets via either forest protection or reforestation. However, while carbon is a unique environmental service traded in national and international markets, there are challenges in implementing C-PFES schemes at the local level. Simply put, the views of local participants who will undertake the abatement activities have not been considered. By analysing at the local level the views of potential sellers, potential buyers and intermediaries, this paper investigated the feasibility of applying C-PFES for mangroves in Ca Mau province, Vietnam. While local stakeholders had a strong understanding of the likely impacts of climate change on their production and were aware of the environmental roles of mangroves, the carbon sequestration capacity of mangroves was rarely mentioned, and this will be a challenge in implementing a C-PFES scheme. While potential sellers and intermediaries showed strong support for C-PFES, potential buyers were less likely to join the scheme. As the carbon sequestration capacity of mangroves can also be purchased by international entities, it is recommended that the scope of the current Vietnamese C-PFES scheme be broadened to allow participation of entities from outside Ca Mau province, including private companies, government agencies and international investors. We also identified the need for education training programs to enhance stakeholders’ perspectives prior to the implementation of C-PFES at the local level. This study provides insights for countries with mangrove ecosystems seeking to implement a C-PFES.

Study on the extension of the dynamic benchmark system of per capita carbon emissions in China's county.

County is the center of China’s socio-economic development and the key node for urban–rural integration. Also, the county is an important carrier for promoting urban and rural green development. Improving green and low-carbon development capabilities and formulating county-level low-carbon standards will play a significant role in promoting China’s new people-oriented urbanization and rural revitalization. Although there have been extensive studies on low-carbon benchmarks, over half of the benchmarks tend to ignore the development stage of the evaluated region and its needs. When the region’s economy reaches a certain level, constraints from low-carbon targets may limit the local development process. This study firstly allocated county carbon intensity reduction targets (CIRT) by considering the differences in county carbon reduction capacity and responsibility. Secondly, a dynamic benchmark system of per capita carbon emissions (PCCE) in counties in China is constructed. Finally, we took Changxing County in Zhejiang Province as a research case to verify the dynamic benchmark of PCCE. According to the carbon intensity target reduction rate (CITRR), China’s counties can be divided into three categories: low carbon emissions reduction capability-responsible counties (L-CERCRC), medium carbon emissions reduction capability-responsible counties (M-CERCRC), and high carbon emissions reduction capability-responsible counties (H-CERCRC). The results show that (1) due to the national CO2 emission reduction target in 2030, the carbon intensity will be 60% lower than in 2005, the CITRR for China’s 1510 counties range from 8.36 to 137.83%; the average CITRR is 48.40%. (2) Changxing County’s CITRR is 57.71%, which belongs to the H-CERCRC. The PCCE of Changxing County will be much higher than the benchmark when the carbon peak is reached in the future. (3) For reaching the aiming benchmark, Changxing County is suggested to adjust its relevant influencing factors of PCCE for converting local’s PCCE reaching to the benchmark within a certain time period. The dynamic benchmark system for PCCE in China’s counties established in this study is economically sensitive, which not only takes the differences of counties into account, but also meets the needs of counties’ diverse development form stages. This system provides counties a few coordinated directions which can improve the local’s economic development and reduce greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions through the development progress.

Development of a greenhouse gas emissions benchmark considering building characteristics and national greenhouse emissions reduction target

To achieve the national greenhouse gas emissions targets (GERT) based on the nationally determined contributions (NDC) by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2050, the scope of the emission trading scheme (ETS) needs to be extended to include the building sector as well as the industry sector. In this regard, the development of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions benchmark considering both the national GERT and the characteristics of the building sector is considered to be an important factor. Thus, this study developed the GHG emissions benchmark considering the national GERT and the building characteristics. The three groups by region (i.e., central and southern regions) were established using a decision tree method based on elapsed years. The developed GHG emissions benchmarks by group were found to satisfy both national GERTs based on NDC by 2030 (i.e., 32.80%) and carbon neutrality by 2050 (i.e., 88.10%). Therefore, the proposed GHG emissions benchmarks can be a more reasonable alternative compared to the GHG emission benchmarks based on Korean-ETS and EU-ETS in terms of achieving the national GERT and relieving the economic burden. The developed GHG emissions benchmarks provide valuable insights and references for helping policy-makers adopt the ETS in the building sector for achieving GERT.

Adjusting agricultural emissions for trade matters for climate change mitigation

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in food systems is becoming more challenging as food is increasingly consumed away from producer regions, highlighting the need to consider emissions embodied in trade in agricultural emissions accounting. To address this, our study explores recent trends in trade-adjusted agricultural emissions of food items at the global, regional, and national levels. We find that emissions are largely dependent on a country’s consumption patterns and their agricultural emission intensities relative to their trading partners’. The absolute differences between the production-based and trade-adjusted emissions accounting approaches are especially apparent for major agricultural exporters and importers and where large shares of emission-intensive items such as ruminant meat, milk products and rice are involved. In relative terms, some low-income and emerging and developing economies with consumption of high emission intensity food products show large differences between approaches. Similar trends are also found under various specifications that account for trade and re-exports differently. These findings could serve as an important element towards constructing national emissions reduction targets that consider trading partners, leading to more effective emissions reductions overall.