Emission pathways and mitigation options for achieving consumption-based climate targets in Sweden

Abstract

National emission reduction targets under the Paris Agreement have a territorial focus, incentivizing mitigation actions domestically. Here we examine the theoretical basis for adopting complementary consumption-based net-zero emission targets and assess the consequences of adopting such proposed targets for Sweden. We apply scenario analyses based on a prospective lifecycle assessment framework. The framework is a hybrid of bottom-up simulations for passenger travel, construction and housing, and food, and top-down analyses for remaining consumption. In this work, we show how consumption-based climate targets may accentuate the need for new demand-side climate policies that contribute to reducing emissions along supply chains of products and services. Our scenario analysis suggests that combining advanced mitigation technologies with behavioral changes could reduce emissions from 9.8 tons of carbon dioxide equivalents per capita in 2019 to between 2.7 and 4.8 tons by 2045 for Swedish residents, depending on global decarbonization pathways.