National Climate Strategies Research Articles

Future Scenarios of Forest Carbon Sink in a Typical Subtropical County

In the context of achieving global carbon neutrality, forests play a pivotal role in sequestering atmospheric CO2, particularly in China, where forest management is central to national climate strategies. This study evaluates the forest carbon sink capacity in Zixi County, a subtropical region, under varying climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Using the Forest-DNDC (Denitrification–Decomposition) model, combined with high-precision climate data and a random forest model, we simulate forest carbon density and forest carbon sink under different management strategies. The results indicate that under the baseline scenario, forest carbon density in Zixi County increases by 31% over 42 years under the SSP2-4.5 climate scenario and by 28.6% under SSP5-8.5. In the enhancing economic scenario, carbon density increases by 8.5% under SSP2-4.5 and by 7.2% under SSP5-8.5. For the natural development scenario, a significant increase of 130% is observed under SSP2-4.5, while SSP5-8.5 shows an increase of 120%. Spatially, forest carbon sinks in Zixi County total 843,152 T C in 2020, 542,852 T C in 2030, and 877,802 T C in 2060 under the baseline SSP2-4.5 scenario; under SSP5-8.5, these values are 841,321 T C in 2020, 531,301 T C in 2030, and 1,016,402 T C in 2060. In the enhancing economic scenario, the total carbon sink is 34,650 T C in both 2020 and 2030, increasing to 427,351 T C in 2060 under SSP2-4.5, while under SSP5-8.5, it is 46,200 T C in 2020, 34,650 T C in 2030, and 415,801 T C in 2060. The natural development scenario shows the total carbon sink under SSP2-4.5 as 11,157,332 T C in 2020, 3,441,910 T C in 2030, and 1,409,104 T C in 2060, and under SSP5-8.5, it is 10,903,231 T C in 2020, 3,337,960 T C in 2030, and 1,131,903 T C in 2060. Spatial analysis reveals that elevation and forest type significantly affect carbon density, with high-altitude areas and forests dominated by Chinese fir and broadleaf species showing higher carbon accumulation. The findings highlight the importance of targeted forest management, prioritizing species with higher carbon sequestration potential and considering spatial heterogeneity. These strategies, applied locally, can contribute to broader national and global carbon neutrality efforts.

The Illusion of a Green Transition in Slovenia by 2050

This study analyzes the possibilities of phasing out fossil and nuclear energy sources for Slovenia by 2050. Alternative carbon-free sources include renewable energy sources (RES) i.e. electricity, synthetic fuels and hydrogen from water electrolysis. The model is based on the use of currently mature low-carbon technologies and is adapted to Slovenia’s natural conditions. Photovoltaic panels (PV) and hydropower plants are used for the majority of renewable electricity generation. To bridge the winter period with minimal PV production, storage with a pumped storage power plant is planned. One of the assumptions of the national climate strategy has been incorporated into the model, which envisages zero growth in final energy consumption by 2050. The result of the paper is an assessment of what some of the basic characteristics of the Slovenian energy system would look like after the phase-out of fossil and nuclear energy sources. The estimated storage capacity required is 5.1 MWh/capita. Abandoning fossil fuels with the currently mature RES technologies is not realistically feasible for technical and economic reasons.

Narratives Behind Climate Strategy in Finland

The 2015 Paris Agreement (PA) represents a profound change in global climate governance becoming a blueprint for other governance arenas. However, the varying success of reaching the national climate targets, unstable security, and growing right-wing populism poses a question of which direction the EU climate policy is moving after ten years of PA. The success of this agreement depends heavily on the effectiveness of national climate change policies wherein political parties have a critical role in developing these policies while also impacting public attitudes on climate change. We use the case of Finnish climate strategy as a case of national climate strategy. We analyzed Finnish climate policy documents by using Ostrom’s IAD Framework and Multiple stream framework analysis to create the narratives behind the Finnish climate strategy. The Institutional Analysis and Development framework (IAD) is a conceptual tool that Ostrom and her colleagues developed to analyze and understand the complex interactions and dynamics within institutions that govern common-pool resources. Our research question is: What are the narratives behind the Finnish climate strategy? Key words: Climate strategy, narrative, IAD framework, Multiple stream analysis framework

Biodiversity impact of the consumption of peat and wood-fired district heating

A shift from fossil fuels to biofuels is becoming an increasingly important part of national and corporate climate strategies, but the biodiversity impacts of biofuels are often ignored and remain poorly understood. Here we developed a novel eight-step general framework for the assessment of consumption-based biodiversity impacts of biofuels and applied the framework to assess the biodiversity impacts of peat and wood-fired district heating in Finland. We utilize the habitat hectare approach for which information about the ecosystem condition before and after the impact is needed. The habitat hectare approach has not yet been used on assessments of consumption-based biodiversity impacts. Of the different fuel types used in peat and wood-fired district heating in Finland, peat had the highest biodiversity impact per unit area, followed by chips from roundwood and logging residue chips. By-products from sawmill industry are argued to have no additional biodiversity impacts. Interestingly, however, when we consider the biodiversity impacts per unit energy, chips from roundwood had the highest and peat the lowest biodiversity impact. Our results suggest there is a truly substantial trade-off between the climate and biodiversity impacts of wood and peat firing. We conclude that the habitat hectare approach combined with the presented general assessment framework is a promising approach to be used in the assessment of consumption-based biodiversity impacts in different land use contexts, such as biodiversity offsetting, around the globe. This protocol should be further developed and refined in different systems and with different bio-based materials and land use contexts.

Assessment of Carbon Sink and Carbon Flux in Forest Ecosystems: Instrumentation and the Influence of Seasonal Changes

Accurate measurement and estimation of forest carbon sinks and fluxes are essential for developing effective national and global climate strategies aimed at reducing atmospheric carbon concentrations and mitigating climate change. Various errors arise during forest monitoring, especially measurement instability due to seasonal variations, which require to be adequately addressed in forest ecosystem research and applications. Seasonal fluctuations in temperature, precipitation, aerosols, and solar radiation can significantly impact the physical observations of mapping equipment or platforms, thereby reducing the data’s accuracy. Here, we review the technologies and equipment used for monitoring forest carbon sinks and carbon fluxes across different remote sensing platforms, including ground-based, airborne, and spaceborne remote sensing. We further investigate the uncertainties introduced by seasonal variations to the observing equipment, compare the strengths and weaknesses of various monitoring technologies, and propose the corresponding solutions and recommendations. We aim to gain a comprehensive understanding of the impact of seasonal variations on the accuracy of forest map data, thereby improving the accuracy of forest carbon sinks and fluxes.

Global health and climate action: achievements and imperatives from COP28.

SThe 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change marked a step-change forward in integrating health into the global climate change agenda. For the first time, there was a dedicated 'health' day, US$1 billion (A$1.5 billion) in climate-health financing was announced, and a Declaration on Climate and Health was signed by 148 countries. Australia also launched its National Health and Climate Strategy. A 'global stocktake' assessed progress against the Paris Agreement, emphasising the need to "transition away" from fossil fuels in the final COP28 decision. The Loss and Damage Fund to help vulnerable countries cope with climate change was also operationalised. Less promising are a number of loopholes in the COP28 outcomes regarding the continued use of fossil fuels. Loss and Damage Fund pledges represented only 0.2% of the estimated financial assistance needed to support vulnerable countries. Australia remains one of the largest fossil fuel exporters and has yet to elaborate on the implementation and financing for its health and climate strategy. To protect global health, urgent action is needed to phase out fossil fuels and transition to renewable energy, ensuring no communities are left behind. Investment is needed to increase the resilience of communities and health services to address innumerable challenges, including those associated with climate change. COP28 saw an increased presence of public health practitioners, who can play a critical role in understanding the implications of climate change for the communities they serve and embedding responses in their practice. They are well placed to strengthen the evidence base for interventions, monitor progress, and advocate for health-promoting climate policy. COPs form an important part of how we collectively address climate change. The health sector finally has a place at the COP table. The sector now needs to become an enabler of action across sectors, as well as managing the health consequences of climate change on communities and health services. Australia hopes to host COP31 in 2026 with Pacific states, potentially providing a catalyst for strengthened resolve.

Residual emissions in long-term national climate strategies show limited climate ambition

Residual emissions in long-term national climate strategies show limited climate ambition

The 2023 report of the MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: sustainability needed in Australia's health care sector.

The MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change in Australia was established in 2017 and produced its first national assessment in 2018 and annual updates in 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022. It examines five broad domains: health hazards, exposures and impacts; adaptation, planning and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. In this, the sixth report of the MJA-Lancet Countdown, we track progress on an extensive suite of indicators across these five domains, accessing and presenting the latest data and further refining and developing our analyses. Our results highlight the health and economic costs of inaction on health and climate change. A series of major flood events across the four eastern states of Australia in 2022 was the main contributor to insured losses from climate-related catastrophes of $7.168 billion - the highest amount on record. The floods also directly caused 23 deaths and resulted in the displacement of tens of thousands of people. High red meat and processed meat consumption and insufficient consumption of fruit and vegetables accounted for about half of the 87 166 diet-related deaths in Australia in 2021. Correction of this imbalance would both save lives and reduce the heavy carbon footprint associated with meat production. We find signs of progress on health and climate change. Importantly, the Australian Government released Australia's first National Health and Climate Strategy, and the Government of Western Australia is preparing a Health Sector Adaptation Plan. We also find increasing action on, and engagement with, health and climate change at a community level, with the number of electric vehicle sales almost doubling in 2022 compared with 2021, and with a 65% increase in coverage of health and climate change in the media in 2022 compared with 2021. Overall, the urgency of substantial enhancements in Australia's mitigation and adaptation responses to the enormous health and climate change challenge cannot be overstated. Australia's energy system, and its health care sector, currently emit an unreasonable and unjust proportion of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. As the Lancet Countdown enters its second and most critical phase in the leadup to 2030, the depth and breadth of our assessment of health and climate change will be augmented to increasingly examine Australia in its regional context, and to better measure and track key issues in Australia such as mental health and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health and wellbeing.

Review of Climate Strategies in Northern Europe: Exposure to Potential Risks and Limitations

Several northern European countries have announced ambitious plans to become carbon neutral already before the year 2050. Recent research has, however, highlighted how potential bottlenecks in raw material and resource availability could significantly delay or hinder wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) expansion and continued biomass usage in parts of Europe. To address this issue, this paper assesses how exposed the national energy and climate plans (NECPs) of Finland, Estonia, Germany, Sweden, and Denmark are to resource limitations and techno-economic risks by reviewing and analysing 2030 NECP targets compared to statistical energy use data in these countries. The results indicate that the NECPs of Denmark and Germany are particularly exposed to risks related to global raw material availability, as Denmark plans to rapidly grow the share of wind and solar PV in electricity generation to 81% and 13% by 2030, respectively, followed by Germany, which outlines a 39% and 16% share of wind and solar PV in its national climate strategy. The NECPs of Finland and Germany are also shown to be vulnerable to limitations in biomass availability, as there is a significant disparity between the projected biomass usage and legally binding European Union (EU) targets for land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector emissions in 2030 in these countries.

Alternative policy narratives of the future of climate change: Analyzing Finland's energy and climate strategy and news reports

AbstractIn this article, we examine the ways in which the futures of climate change and the climate change policy process are constructed as narratives—both explicitly and implicitly—in two different yet interconnected contexts that shape public climate discourse and debate: foresight‐based political decision‐making and journalism. The featured case is the National Energy and Climate Strategy of Finland for 2030. We employ and expand the Narrative Policy Framework to better understand the co‐existent, implicit narratives of the future in the contexts of policy and media. We construct two co‐existing yet contradictory underlying narratives of the future of climate change and climate policy. Our approach reveals that the prevailing master narrative of a desirable future is challenged by a co‐existing counter narrative where policies in the energy and climate strategy prioritize shorter‐term policy interests over climate change. Building on these findings, we argue that, in climate policy communication, communicators convey futures through narratives—both explicitly, as descriptions of what is perceived, hoped, and anticipated to happen, and implicitly, as the sum of the parts included and excluded.

Experimental and Theoretical Investigations of Shunt Currents between Alkaline Water Electrolyzers

A pivotal component of national climate strategies is the transition of the energy sector from fossil fuels to green energy. In this context, electrochemical processes will play a significant role in the future, requiring electrochemical systems with high efficiency and maximum system life cycles.1,2 For industrial electrochemical systems capital and operating costs are often reduced by a system design with a shared and circulating electrolyte supply providing ionically conductive cell-to-cell pathways. Under such conditions, parasitic ion migration occurs between adjacent cells, known as shunt currents.3,4 Shunt currents can have severe implications, such as decrease in faraday efficiency, material corrosion or interferences with instrumentation 3,5,6.To ensure high efficiency and maximum system life cycle, shunt current estimation is of high importance for the design of electrochemical multi-cell systems. A widely used approach in the literature is the theoretical, model-based approach using equivalent circuit models for shunt current determination7–9. Only a few publications demonstrate experimental determination methods 10,11. Furthermore, most shunt current studies in the field of electrochemistry focus on redox flow batteries.This work shows an innovative experimental approach for direct shunt current measurements between two alkaline water electrolysis cells with shared and circulating electrolyte feed under various conditions. The flow field design enables the insertion of reference electrodes into the flow cells for direct measurement of the potential differences between adjacent electrodes. Combined with the experimental data of the ionic tube resistances, the cell-to-cell shunt currents were accurately determined. Furthermore, an equivalent circuit model was created, fed with experimental data and validated with measured results. After successful validation the model was extended to electrolysis systems with more than two cells.Experimental data and simulations are in good agreement. The conducted experiments show the impact of temperature, cell voltage and tube manifold geometry on shunt current formation between alkaline water electrolyzers. Simulations performed are carried out to calculate shunt currents as a function of these parameters in large multi-cell systems. Furthermore, efficiency losses and corrosion processes as a result of shunt currents are estimated based on the results of this work.Literature Baños R, Manzano-Agugliaro F, Montoya FG, Gil C, Alcayde A, Gómez J. Optimization methods applied to renewable and sustainable energy: A review. Renew Sustain Energy Rev. 2011;15(4):1753-1766. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2010.12.008Yan Z, Hitt JL, Turner JA, Mallouk TE. Renewable electricity storage using electrolysis. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020;117(23):12558-12563. doi:10.1073/pnas.1821686116Delgado NM, Monteiro R, Cruz J, Bentien A, Mendes A. Shunt currents in vanadium redox flow batteries – a parametric and optimization study. Electrochim Acta. 2022;403:139667. doi:10.1016/j.electacta.2021.139667Kaminski EA, Savinell RF. A Technique for Calculating Shunt Leakage and Cell Currents in Bipolar Stacks Having Divided or Undivided Cells. J Electrochem Soc. 1983;130(5):1103-1107. doi:10.1149/1.2119891Yin C, Guo S, Fang H, Liu J, Li Y, Tang H. Numerical and experimental studies of stack shunt current for vanadium redox flow battery. Appl Energy. 2015;151:237-248. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.04.080Pletcher D, Walsh FC. Industrial Electrochemistry. Springer Science & Business Media; 2012.Schaeffer JA, Chen L Der, Seaba JP. Shunt current calculation of fuel cell stack using Simulink®. J Power Sources. 2008;182(2):599-602. doi:10.1016/j.jpowsour.2008.04.014Wandschneider FT, Röhm S, Fischer P, Pinkwart K, Tübke J, Nirschl H. A multi-stack simulation of shunt currents in vanadium redox flow batteries. J Power Sources. 2014;261:64-74. doi:10.1016/j.jpowsour.2014.03.054Ye Q, Hu J, Cheng P, Ma Z. Design trade-offs among shunt current, pumping loss and compactness in the piping system of a multi-stack vanadium flow battery. J Power Sources. 2015;296:352-364. doi:10.1016/j.jpowsour.2015.06.138Rous̆ar I, Cezner V. Experimental Determination and Calculation of Parasitic Currents in Bipolar Electrolyzers with Application to Chlorate Electrolyzer. J Electrochem Soc. 1974;121(5):648. doi:10.1149/1.2401878Fink H, Remy M. Shunt currents in vanadium flow batteries: Measurement, modelling and implications for efficiency. J Power Sources. 2015;284:547-553. doi:10.1016/j.jpowsour.2015.03.057

Energy Security of the European Union in the Context of Russian Aggression against Ukraine

Over the past decades, Russia has used the supply, ownership and control of energy resources as an instrument of its foreign policy to strengthen its political influence not only in the post-Soviet space, but also in the EU member states. During the unprovoked Russian aggression against Ukraine, Moscow used energy policy as an energy weapon (demanding to pay for gas in rubles; stopping gas supplies to certain EU member states, including Poland, Bulgaria, and Finland; reducing the volume of supplies through the Nord Stream pipeline; ignoring the capacities of the Ukrainian GTS; provoking an increase in gas prices), which resulted in an acute energy crisis in the European Union. This prompted the EU and national governments of its member states to make significant adjustments to their energy policies in order to overcome the crisis and prevent gas blackmail by European states as a manipulation to circumvent anti-Russian sanctions and political pressure to withdraw support for Ukraine. The purpose of the article is to study the problems of ensuring the energy security of the European Union and its member states in the context of the energy crisis caused by Russia's aggression against Ukraine. The article is aimed at studying the impact of Russian aggression on the EU's energy security, assessing the state of the Energy Union in 2022, and analyzing short-term and long-term strategies in the development of relevant supranational and national energy policies, mainly from a European perspective. Modern European national and supranational energy and climate strategies envisage postponing the phase-out of coal, oil, gas and nuclear power, while accelerating the deployment of renewable energy, improving energy efficiency and a mandatory commitment to increase energy storage. The European Union and its member states are overcoming the consequences of the energy crisis by developing and implementing national strategies, the REPowerEU plan, as well as a number of other measures to reduce energy prices and ensure security of supply. The REPowerEU plan is fully in line with the European Green Deal and includes measures to save energy, diversify and ensure security of supply, accelerate the deployment of renewable energy sources and a reasonable mix of investment and reform. The modernization of the EU's energy policy is aligned with the EU's long-term climate goals. The EU also supports new partnerships with neighboring countries, including Ukraine, to accelerate the global transition to green and fair energy.

Involving stakeholders in scenario-building: Lessons from a case study of the global context of Norway’s climate policies

This paper assesses the relevance and outcome of involving a transdisciplinary group of stakeholders in a scenario-building research project. The scenarios describe plausible external, long-term conditions with the aim to improve the knowledge basis of a national (Norwegian) government pursuing climate policy targets for 2030 and 2050 under uncertainty. The scenario process has two phases with quite different roles for the participants. In the first, the aim is to create broad engagement and participation in exploring narratives for how key external conditions might develop and form premises for the national climate strategies for Norway. The ambition in this phase is to deduce a handful of wide-ranging and distinctly different, qualitative scenarios. The second phase is devoted to translating the narratives into quantitative projections for the Norwegian economy and greenhouse gas emissions by means of linking global and national largescale models. We claim that research projects building and using scenarios have significant potential to benefit from involving a broad stakeholder group in developing qualitative narratives. The second phase involves complex quantitative simulations. In order to provide scientific rigor and credibility to the scenarios, this phase primarily calls for scholars with technical skills, knowledge on the research frontier and modelling experience. Nevertheless, later use of these scenarios in numerical policy studies can gain from resumed researcher-stakeholder interaction.

Australia's political engagement on health and climate change: the MJA-Lancet Countdown indicator and implications for the future.

Australia's political engagement on health and climate change: the MJA-Lancet Countdown indicator and implications for the future.

Long-term national climate strategies bet on forests and soils to reach net-zero

The deployment of carbon dioxide removal is essential to reach global and national net-zero emissions targets, but little attention has been paid to its practical deployment by countries. Here, we analyse how carbon dioxide removal methods are integrated into 41 of the 50 Long-term Low Emission Development Strategies submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), before 2022. We show that enhancing forest and soil carbon sinks are the most advocated strategies but are only explicitly quantified in 12. Residual emissions by 2050 are only quantified in 20 strategies and most of them use forests to achieve national net-zero targets. Strategies that quantify both residual emissions and carbon dioxide removal identify national constraints, such as wildfire risks to forests and limited geological CO2 storage capacity. These strategies also highlight the need for international cooperation. Taken together, we suggest that the UNFCCC should urgently strengthen its reporting requirements on long-term national climate strategies.

Framing climate strategy of the oil industry of China: A tailored approach to ecological modernization

China has announced its ambitious targets of attaining a carbon peak before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. Although China is a developing country, its oil sector plays a key role in carbon emissions and thus has a responsibility toward climate change. It is very important to understand the role of the oil industry of China in climate governance. This raises the following question: how have oil companies in China framed and tailored their climate strategies? By employing the concept of ecological modernization as a theoretical framework, this study observes the driving forces of climate policies, low-carbon energy, advanced technologies, and market mechanisms by collecting and analyzing reports published by three oil companies. The main findings are that state-owned oil companies in China have adopted the ideas and institutions of national climate strategies, low-carbon energy systems, and emerging financial and market tools. The analysis of the reports reveals that the main motives for the climate strategies of the companies are China’s administrative system, international climate cooperation, the transformation of the energy mix, and emerging market mechanisms.

Analysis of Ocean-Based Climate Action in Nationally Determined Contributions

Ocean-based climate action can play an important role in achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement. Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are one of the main vehicles under the Paris Agreement for countries to communicate their national climate strategies. The purpose of this technical note is to lay out the methodology for assessing the extent to which ocean-based measures for climate action are represented in new and updated NDCs from island and coastal countries.

Ocean-Based Climate Action in New and Updated Nationally Determined Contributions

Ocean-based climate action can play an important role in achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement. Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are one of the main mechanisms under the Paris Agreement for countries to communicate their national climate strategies. This working paper analyzes how ocean-based climate actions are included in new and updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) from island and coastal countries and what this means for implementation over the next five years. Based on an analysis of 106 new and updated NDCs, 77 (73 percent) include at least one target, policy, or measure aimed at ocean-based climate actions.

Climate discourses as barriers to rights-based adaptive social protection: How historical politics shape Ethiopia’s climate-smart safety net

A rights-based approach to ‘adaptive social protection’ holds promise as a policy measure to address structural dimensions of vulnerability to climate change such as inequality and marginalisation, yet it has been failing to gain traction against production and growth-oriented interventions. Through the lens of Ethiopia’s flagship Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP), we trace the role of climate discourses in impeding progress towards socially transformative outcomes, despite the importance of social protection for building resilience. We argue that intertwining narratives of moral leadership and green growth associated with Ethiopia’s national climate strategy shape how the PSNP is rendered ‘climate-smart’. These narratives, however, are embedded within politics that have historically underpinned the country’s drive for modernisation and growth-oriented policies, particularly in dealing with food insecurity. Like pre-existing narratives on development and the environment, they rationalise the presence of a strong central State and its control over natural resources and rural livelihoods. The PSNP is thus conditioned to favour technocratic, productivist approaches to adapting to climate change that may help reproduce, rather than challenge the entrenched politics at the root of vulnerability. Ultimately, this case study demonstrates how climate discourses risk diluting core rights-based dimensions of social protection, contradicting efforts to address the structural dimensions of vulnerability to climate change.

The promise and peril of Australian climate leadership under Albanese

After nearly a decade of policy inaction by the Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison Coalition governments, the election of Anthony Albanese’s Labor government has ushered in expectations of a sea-change in Australian climate policy, one that might allow the country to finally emerge as a global leader on the issue. Yet while years of inaction have left some relatively easy victories for the new government to rack up, the change of leadership and rhetoric obscures some key continuities in the Albanese government’s approach that need to be foregrounded and critiqued by domestic and international audiences alike. In this brief commentary, we consider what the new Labor government might mean for Australian climate action over the coming years. We focus, in particular, on the role that fossil fuel exports will continue to play in overwhelming any emissions cuts achieved domestically, and underscore the need for a much broader and more ambitious national climate strategy designed to wean the country off its reliance on coal and gas revenues.