National Center For Health Statistics Research Articles

The burden of cirrhosis mortality by county, race, and ethnicity in the USA, 2000–19: a systematic analysis of health disparities

Cirrhosis is responsible for substantial health and economic burden in the USA. Reducing this burden requires better understanding of how rates of cirrhosis mortality vary by race and ethnicity and by geographical location. This study describes rates and trends in cirrhosis mortality for five racial and ethnic populations in 3110 US counties from 2000 to 2019. We estimated cirrhosis mortality rates by county, race and ethnicity, and year (2000-19) using previously validated small-area estimation methods, death registration data from the US National Vital Statistics System, and population data from the US National Center for Health Statistics. Five racial and ethnic populations were considered: American Indian or Alaska Native (AIAN), Asian or Pacific Islander (Asian), Black, Latino or Hispanic (Latino), and White. Cirrhosis mortality rate estimates were age-standardised using the age distribution from the 2010 US census as the standard. For each racial and ethnic population, estimates are presented for all counties with a mean annual population greater than 1000. From 2000 to 2019, national-level age-standardised cirrhosis mortality rates decreased in the Asian (23·8% [95% uncertainty interval 19·6-27·8], from 9·4 deaths per 100 000 population [8·9-9·9] to 7·1 per 100 000 [6·8-7·5]), Black (22·8% [20·6-24·8], from 19·8 per 100 000 [19·4-20·3] to 15·3 per 100 000 [15·0-15·6]), and Latino (15·3% [13·3-17·3], from 26·3 per 100 000 [25·6-27·0] to 22·3 per 100 000 [21·8-22·8]) populations and increased in the AIAN (39·3% [32·3-46·4], from 45·6 per 100 000 [40·6-50·6] to 63·5 per 100 000 [57·2-70·2] in 2000 and 2019, respectively) and White (25·8% [24·2-27·3], from 14·7 deaths per 100 000 [14·6-14·9] to 18·5 per 100 000 [18·4-18·7]) populations. In all years, cirrhosis mortality rates were lowest among the Asian population, highest among the AIAN population, and higher in males than females for each racial and ethnic population. The degree of heterogeneity in county-level cirrhosis mortality rates varied by racial and ethnic population, with the narrowest IQR in the Asian population (median 8·0 deaths per 100 000, IQR 6·4-10·4) and the widest in the AIAN population (55·1, 30·3-78·8). Cirrhosis mortality increased over the study period in almost all counties for the White (2957 [96·9%] of 3051 counties) and AIAN (421 [88·8%] of 474) populations, but in a smaller proportion of counties for the Asian, Black, and Latino populations. For all racial and ethnic populations, cirrhosis mortality rates increased in more counties between 2000 and 2015 than between 2015 and 2019. Cirrhosis mortality increased nationally and in many counties from 2000 to 2019. Although the magnitude of racial and ethnic disparities decreased in some places, disparities nonetheless persisted, and mortality remained high in many locations and communities. Our findings underscore the need to implement targeted and locally tailored programmes and policies to reduce the burden of cirrhosis at both the national and local level. US National Institutes of Health (Intramural Research Program, National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities; National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; Intramural Research Program, National Cancer Institute; National Institute on Aging; National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases; Office of Disease Prevention; and Office of Behavioral and Social Sciences Research).

Assessing the Quality of Cause-of-Death Reporting Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

This study assessed the quality of cause-of-death reporting in the US before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. We used the selection rate and the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) to analyze each cause identified by the National Center for Health Statistics as unsuitable for the underlying cause of death (UCOD). The selection rate was defined as the proportion of deaths with mention of a particular unsuitable UCOD on the death certificate where that cause was ultimately selected as the UCOD. Out of 36 unsuitable UCODs, 33 exhibited a significant decline in selection rates from 2019 to 2021. However, when deaths with mention of COVID-19 on the death certificate were excluded, only 19 causes revealed a significant decline. In analyses that controlled for the age of decedents, aORs in 2021 were significantly lower compared with 2019 for 26 causes, and this number decreased to 17 causes in analyses that excluded COVID-19-related deaths. In conclusion, the overall quality of COD reporting improved during the COVID-19 pandemic, attributable mainly to the fact that over one-tenth of the deaths were related to COVID-19. Yet, for deaths that did not involve COVID-19, improvements in the quality of COD reporting were less prominent for certain causes.

Age-Specific Cancer Mortality in the US During the COVID-19 Pandemic, March to December 2020

Abstract Background: It is important to understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer death rates in 2020 in the US. We estimated whether there were larger-than-expected changes in cancer mortality rates from March to December 2020 after accounting for temporal and seasonal patterns using data from January 2011 to February 2020 by cancer type and age. Methods: We obtained death counts and underlying causes of death by cancer type, month/year (2011–2020), and age group from the National Center for Health Statistics and population estimates from the US Census Bureau. Poisson regression was used to test for significant changes in cancer death rates from March to December 2020 compared with prior years. Results: After accounting for temporal trends and seasonal patterns, total cancer death rates were significantly lower than expected during March to December 2020 among 55- to 64-year-olds and ≥75-year-olds, but not in other age groups. Cancer death rates were 2% lower than expected from March to June among 55- to 64-year-olds and 2% to 3% lower from March to July and December among ≥75-year-olds. Among ≥75-year-olds, colorectal cancer death rates were lower from March to June [rate ratios (RR) = 0.94–0.96; P < 0.05]; however, lung cancer death rates were 5% lower across each month (all RRs = 0.95; P < 0.05). Conclusions: In the US, cancer death rates based on the underlying cause of death were broadly similar to expected rates from March to December 2020. However, cancer death rates were lower than expected among 55- to 64-year-olds and ≥75-year-olds, likely due to COVID-19 as a competing cause of death. Impact: Cancer mortality rates from 2020 should be interpreted with caution.

Social Distancing During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Neonatal Mortality in the US.

Neonatal mortality is a major public health concern that was potentially impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. To prepare for future health crises, it is important to investigate whether COVID-19 pandemic-related interventions were associated with changes in neonatal mortality. To investigate whether social distancing during the pandemic was associated with a higher neonatal mortality rate. This cohort study examined maternal-linked birth and infant death records from the National Center for Health Statistics, a population-level US database, from 2016 through 2020. The mortality rates were correlated using machine learning-based autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models with the social distancing index (SDI). The reference period was January 2016 through February 2020, and the pandemic period was March through December 2020. Statistical analysis was performed from March 2023 to May 2024. SDI, computed from 6 mobility metrics. The primary outcome was neonatal mortality rate, defined as death at age less than 28 days. The study included 18 011 173 births, of which 15 136 596 were from the reference period (7 753 555 [51.22%] male; 11 643 094 [76.92%] with maternal age of 20 to 34 years) and 2 874 577 were from the pandemic period (1 472 539 [51.23%] male; 2 190 158 [76.19%] with maternal age of 20 to 34 years). Through ARIMA-adjusted analyses, accounting for the declining mortality trend in the reference period, the mortality rates during the pandemic period did not significantly differ from the expected rates. SDI did not exhibit significant correlations with neonatal mortality (unadjusted: correlation coefficient [CC], 0.14 [95% CI, -0.53 to 0.70]; ARIMA adjusted: CC, 0.29 [95% CI, -0.41 to 0.77]), early neonatal mortality (unadjusted: CC, 0.33 [95% CI, -0.37 to 0.79]; ARIMA adjusted: CC, 0.45 [95% CI, -0.24 to 0.84]), and infant mortality (unadjusted: CC, -0.09 [95% CI, -0.68 to 0.57]; ARIMA adjusted: CC, 0.35 [95% CI, -0.35 to 0.80]). However, lag analyses found that SDI was associated with higher neonatal and early neonatal mortality rates with a 2-month lag period, but not with infant mortality rate. SDI was also associated with increases in 22-to-27 weeks' and 28-to-32 weeks' preterm delivery with a 1-month lag period. In this population-level study of National Center for Health Statistics databases, neonatal, early neonatal, and infant mortality rates did not increase during the initial COVID-19 pandemic period. However, associations were observed between the pandemic period social distancing measures and higher rates of neonatal and early neonatal mortality, as well as preterm birth rate with a lag period, suggesting the importance of monitoring infant health outcomes following pandemic-related population behavior changes.

Optimal gestational weight gain associated with improved perinatal outcomes in women with gestational diabetes mellitus: a population-based study in the United States

BackgroundOptimal gestational weight change (GWC) is little known among pregnant women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). ObjectiveThis study aimed to explore the optimal GWC ranges for women with GDM and validate these ranges compared to the Institute of Medicine (IOM) guidelines. MethodsA population-based cohort study using natality data from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) in the United States included 1,338,460 mother-infant pairs with GDM from 2014 to 2020. Poisson regression models were performed to identify GWC ranges (GDM targets) associated with acceptable risks (< 10% increase) for a severity-weighted composite outcome including preterm birth (PTB) < 37 weeks, large for gestational age (LGA, birthweight > 90th percentile) and small for gestational age (SGA, birthweight < 10th percentile). These targets were validated in individual outcomes including PTB, LGA, SGA, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, neonatal intensive care unit admission and neonatal respiratory morbidity and compared with the IOM guidelines using logistic regression models with population-attributable fractions (PAFs) calculated. ResultsThe severity-weighted composite outcome had a U-shaped or a J-shaped relationship with GWC across body mass index (BMI) categories. The GDM targets were 14.1-20.3 kg, 9.0-17.0 kg, 4.8-13.8 kg, -0.8-10.8 kg, -2.4-8.2 kg, and -8.3-6.0 kg for underweight, normal weight, overweight, class 1 obesity, class 2 obesity, and class 3 obesity, respectively. GWC outside the GDM or the IOM targets was associated with increased adverse perinatal outcomes in validation analyses. PAFs indicated that the IOM guidelines reduced a similar or higher proportion of adverse perinatal outcomes compared to the GDM targets for women with GDM, with the exception of those with class 2 and 3 obesity. ConclusionsThe IOM guidelines are generally applicable for women with GDM, with the exception of women with moderate and severe obesity. The optimal GWC ranges for women with GDM and moderate to severe obesity may be lower than the IOM guidelines.

Long-term exposure to wildland fire smoke PM2.5 and mortality in the contiguous United States.

The area burned by wildland fire has greatly increased in the U.S. in recent decades. Short-term exposure to smoke pollutants emitted by wildland fires, particularly PM 2.5 , is associated with numerous adverse health effects. However, the impacts of long-term exposure to wildland fire smoke PM 2.5 on health and specifically mortality remain unclear. Utilizing wildland fire smoke PM 2.5 and mortality data in the contiguous U.S. during 2007-2020, we found positive associations between long-term smoke PM 2.5 exposure and increased non-accidental, cardiovascular, ischemic heart disease, digestive, endocrine, diabetes, mental, and chronic kidney disease mortality rates. Each year, in addition to the well-recognized mortality burden from non-smoke PM 2.5 , smoke PM 2.5 contributed to an estimated over 10 thousand non-accidental deaths in the U.S. This study demonstrates the detrimental effects of wildland fire smoke PM 2.5 on a wide range of health outcomes, and calls for more effective public health actions and communications that span the health risks of both short- and long-term exposure.

Investigating predictors of protein intake in an adult population utilising the National Health and Nutrition Examination (NHANES) Survey in the United States

It is widely accepted that meeting recommended protein intake is protective of muscle mass(1). Insufficient intake is related to accelerated sarcopenia and impaired physical function, contributing to increased mortality and morbidity. The recommended target set by the American dietary guidelines is 0.8 g of protein per kg of body weight, based on data collated by the National Academies published in 2005(2). Currently approximately 50% of women and 30% of men do not meet these targets(3). It is of public interest to analyse current patterns of intake to allow for improved strategy through awareness of factors that impact protein intake.To investigate the factors which determine an individual’s protein intake and how they can be used to predict daily intake.A secondary data analysis of longitudinal data collected in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) between 2011 and 2020 has been carried out(4). Data was accessed from the public domain on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) website. The study protocol received approval from the research ethics review board of the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) of the CDC. Average protein intake has been calculated and participant demographics reported. STATA software has been used to carry out a bivariate regression of factors associated with protein intake, an adjusted multivariate regression analysis and a parsimonious model.19601 participants (52.4% women) aged 20 and over had valid protein data. Adjusted regression analysis generated three model fits, with the parsimonious model excluding BMI categories and household income had a statistically insignificant impact on protein intake. Men consumed 23.99g more protein per day compared to women (p&lt;0.001: 95% CI 23.09 to 24.89). Individuals over 65 consumed 13.92g less protein per day compared to those aged 20-35 years old (p&lt;0.001: 95% CI − 15.25 to −12.59). Mexican American individuals consumed 7.47g more protein than Non-Hispanic White individuals (p&lt;0.001: 95% CI 5.89 to 9.04) and Non-Hispanic White individuals consumed 2.95g more protein compared to non-Hispanic Black individuals (p&lt;0.001: 95% CI 4.13 to 1.77). Those with the lowest educational attainment consumed 10.77g less protein compared to individuals with a college degree (p&lt;0.001: 95% CI −12.79 to −8.74). From 2011 to 2020, there was a gradual decline in protein intake which is statistically significant when comparing 2011/12 with 2015/16 and 2017/2020.Protein intake can be predicted by an individual’s gender, age, ethnicity, level of education attainment and time period. This study informs policymakers that individuals aged 65 and above are at risk of insufficient protein intake and there has been a general decrease in protein consumption over time. This provides evidence to support initiatives focused on this age category to maximise change and reduce rates of sarcopenia.

Racial/ethnic disparity in severe maternal morbidity among women who conceived by in vitro fertilization

BackgroundIn vitro fertilization (IVF) as a fertility treatment is associated with adverse perinatal outcomes. Racial/ethnic disparity in severe maternal morbidity (SMM) in women who conceived by IVF is understudied. ObjectiveTo examine differences in the association between race/ethnicity and SMM between women who conceived spontaneously and those who conceived using IVF. MethodsWe included all singleton live births and stillbirths in the United States, 2016–2021; data were obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics. Maternal race/ethnicity included non-Hispanic White (NHW), non-Hispanic Black (NHB), American Indian and Alaska Native (AIAN), Asian, Pacific Islander (PI), Hispanic, and mixed-race categories. The SMM composite outcome included eclampsia, uterine rupture, peripartum hysterectomy, blood transfusion, and intensive care unit (ICU) admission. We used logistic regression to adjust for potential confounders (such as age, education, parity, prepregnancy body mass index, smoking during pregnancy, chronic hypertension, and preexisting diabetes) and to assess modification of the association between race/ethnicity and SMM by IVF. ResultsThe study population included 21,585,015 women: 52% were NHW, 15% NHB, 0.8% AIAN, 6% Asian, 0.2% PI, 24% Hispanic, and 2% were of mixed race. IVF was used by 183,662 (0.85%) women; the rate of the SMM composite outcome was 18.5 per 1000 deliveries and 7.9 per 1000 deliveries in the IVF and spontaneous conception groups, respectively (unadjusted rate ratio 2.34, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.26–2.43). In women with spontaneous conception, NHB, Asian and mixed-race women had elevated odds of SMM compared with NHW women (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]=1.39, 95% CI 1.37–1.41; aOR=1.04, 95% CI 1.02–1.07; and aOR=1.42, 95% CI 1.38–1.46, respectively). Racial/ethnic disparities in SMM and its components were not different between the IVF and spontaneous conception groups for the mixed-race category. NHB and Hispanic women had significantly higher aORs for uterine rupture/intrapartum hysterectomy compared with NHW women in the IVF group, while Asian women had a higher aOR for ICU admission compared with NHW women in the IVF group. ConclusionWomen who conceived by IVF have a greater than two-fold higher risk of SMM and this higher risk is evident across all racial/ethnic groups. However, NHB and Hispanic women who conceived by IVF had a higher risk of uterine rupture/hysterectomy, and Asian women who conceived by IVF had a higher risk of ICU admission. Our results warrant further investigation examining pregnancy and postpartum care issues among racial/ethnic minority women who conceive using IVF.

Impact of the oral contraceptive pill on the rate of ovarian cancer incidence in different races of women.

10521 Background: The rate of ovarian cancer incidence has drastically decreased over the years, though it is the fifth most leading cause of cancer death in women. Oral contraceptive pills (OCP) are a major cause for the decline due to decreasing the number of ovulations in a woman’s lifetime. In fact, women who have ever used OCPs have a 30-50% lower risk of ovarian cancer incidence compared to women who have never used OCP. This study compares the use of OCP in different races of women and its effect on the decline in incidence of ovarian cancer. Methods: The average rate of incidence per 100,000 cases per year for ovarian cancer in White, Asian and Black females was obtained from the National Program of Cancer Registries and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program SEER*Stat Database: NPCR and SEER Incidence – U.S. Cancer Statistics 2001–2019 Public Use Research Database. The National Center for Health Statistics, National Survey of Family Growth was used to find ever use of OCP among sexually experienced women ages 15–49 in the United States for 2002 and 2015-2019. Results: White women, in the year 2002 and 2019 had a rate of ever OCP use of 87% and 87.5% respectively. During that same time period, they had the most drastic decrease in ovarian cancer incidence of 43%, compared to Black and Asian female population. In 2002, the incidence rate of ovarian cancer for White women was 14.6 per 100,000. 17 years later, in 2019, it dropped to 10.2 per 100,000. Black women had the second highest ever use of OCP and the second highest rate of change for ovarian cancer incidence. In 2002, 79.1% of Black women had ever used OCPs compared to 73% in 2019. In 17 years, the incidence rate per 100,00 decreased 39% for Black women. Incidence rate per 100,000 in 2002 was 10.4 and incidence rate in 2019 was 7.5 per 100,000. Asian women comparatively had the lowest ever use of OCP and the lowest rate of change for ovarian cancer incidence. Data was not available for 2002, but in 2019, Asian women’s ever use of OCP was 65.6%. Incidence of ovarian cancer for Asian women decreased by 21% between the years 2002 to 2019. Rate per 100,000 was 10.8 in 2002 and decreased to 8.9 per 100,000 in 2019. Conclusions: The oral contraceptive pill was made available in the year 1960. Since then, it has been a large factor as to why ovarian cancer incidence has declined. Healthcare disparities and cultural differences play a part in the rate of OCP use across different races of women. This, in turn, leads to varying levels of ovarian cancer incidence decline with White women having the highest rate, followed by Black, then Asian women. Ovarian cancer has a high mortality due to inadequate screening techniques and late diagnosis which is perpetuated by cultural barriers to receiving care. A decreased risk of ovarian cancer should be considered as a benefit when prescribing OCPs and a protective factor among all studied races.

Trends of mortality from epilepsy in the United States, 1979–2021

PurposeThe analysis of long-term trends of mortality from epilepsy has not been conducted, which is crucial for estimating the future burden of epilepsy. We therefore aimed to investigate the long-term trends of mortality from epilepsy in the United States from 1979 to 2021. MethodsThe cause-of-death and demographic data were from the National Center for Health Statistics (1979–2021) and population estimates were from the US Census Bureau. We used the joinpoint regression model to analyze secular trends in the mortality of epilepsy spanning from 1979 to 2021. Age-adjusted mortality from epilepsy was assessed based on the year 2000 U.S. population data, stratified by age, sex, and race. ResultsThe age-adjusted mortality from epilepsy increased from 0.78 per 100,000 population in 1979 to 1.01 per 100,000 population in 2021, with an average annual percent change (AAPC) of 0.58% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.45% - 0.72%). The overall age-adjusted mortality of epilepsy had been on the rise between 2011 and 2021. The mortality rate generally increases with age. The mortality of epilepsy was higher in the Afro-American people and men. The mortality of epilepsy in both sexes declined first and then increased, with AAPC 1.02% (95% CI: 0.88%, 1.23%) in women and 0.10% (95% CI: -0.002%, 0.21%) in men. Mortality in all races including White, Afro-American people, and other races individuals fell first and then rose. The AAPC of mortality in White, other races, and Afro-American people were 0.89% (95% CI: 0.79%, 1.02%), -0.87% (95% CI: -1.84%, 0.88%), and -0.31% (95% CI: -0.48%, -0.13%), respectively. ConclusionAlthough the mortality rate from epilepsy has experienced a period of decline, it is worth noting that the last decade has seen a rapid increase. A comprehensive assessment of long-term trends in mortality from epilepsy holds significance for healthcare prioritization.

Preterm and Early-Term Delivery After Heat Waves in 50 US Metropolitan Areas

Heat waves are increasing in frequency, intensity, and duration and may be acutely associated with pregnancy outcomes. To examine changes in daily rates of preterm and early-term birth after heat waves in a 25-year nationwide study. This cohort study of singleton births used birth records from 1993 to 2017 from the 50 most populous US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). The study included 53 million births, covering 52.8% of US births over the period. Data were analyzed between October 2022 and March 2023 at the National Center for Health Statistics. Daily temperature data from Daymet at 1-km2 resolution were averaged over each MSA using population weighting. Heat waves were defined in the 4 days (lag, 0-3 days) or 7 days (lag, 0-6 days) preceding birth. Daily counts of preterm birth (28 to <37 weeks), early-term birth (37 to <39 weeks), and ongoing pregnancies in each gestational week on each day were enumerated in each MSA. Rate ratios for heat wave metrics were obtained from time-series models restricted to the warm season (May to September) adjusting for MSA, year, day of season, and day of week, and offset by pregnancies at risk. There were 53 154 816 eligible births in the 50 MSAs from 1993 to 2017; 2 153 609 preterm births and 5 795 313 early-term births occurring in the warm season were analyzed. A total of 30.0% of mothers were younger than 25 years, 53.8% were 25 to 34 years, and 16.3% were 35 years or older. Heat waves were positively associated with daily rates of preterm and early-term births, showing a dose-response association with heat wave duration and temperatures and stronger associations in the more acute 4-day window. After 4 consecutive days of mean temperatures exceeding the local 97.5th percentile, the rate ratio for preterm birth was 1.02 (95% CI, 1.00-1.03), and the rate ratio for early-term birth was 1.01 (95% CI, 1.01-1.02). For the same exposure, among those who were 29 years of age or younger, had a high school education or less, and belonged to a racial or ethnic minority group, the rate ratios were 1.04 (95% CI, 1.02-1.06) for preterm birth and 1.03 (95% CI, 1.02-1.05) for early-term birth. Results were robust to alternative heat wave definitions, excluding medically induced deliveries, and alternative statistical model specifications. In this cohort study, preterm and early-term birth rates increased after heat waves, particularly among socioeconomically disadvantaged subgroups. Extreme heat events have implications for perinatal health.

County-level industrial composition of the labor force and drug overdose mortality rates in the United States in 2018-2021.

Drug mortality risks vary among industries, creating distinctive geographic patterns across US counties. However, less is known about how local labor market structure relates to drug overdose mortality amid the synthetic opioid era in the United States. This study investigates the relationship between industry-specific job composition and drug overdose mortality at the county level while exploring how fentanyl's presence in illicit drug supplies may moderate the relationship. Data were derived from the National Center for Health Statistics' Multiple Cause of Death files for the rates of drug overdose mortality of any intent, linked with four other sources on industry-specific job shares, drug supply, and county-level sociodemographic characteristics and opioid prescribing rates from the US Census Bureau, the CDC, and the Drug Enforcement Administration. Negative binomial regression models were employed to examine associations between county industry-specific job composition and drug overdose mortality, with tests for moderating effects of state-level fentanyl seizure rates. Our models indicate negative associations between job shares of manufacturing, retail trade, and educational services industries and drug overdose mortality. Positive associations were found for arts/entertainment/recreation and public administration. State-level fentanyl seizure rates had moderating effects on administrative/support/waste management/remediation (A/S/WM/R) and educational services. Counties with a higher concentration of arts/entertainment/recreation and public administration jobs need targeted efforts to mitigate drug-related overdose risks. Additionally, areas with higher concentrations of A/S/WM/R service jobs, particularly where fentanyl seizure rates are higher, may require proactive harm reduction strategies for reducing overdose risks.

Breast cancer and the steadily increasing maternal age: are they colliding?

BackgroundPregnancy-related cancers are mostly breast cancers, and their incidence is likely to increase as a result of the modern trend of delaying childbearing. In particular, advanced maternal age increases breast cancer risk, and younger breast cancer patients are more likely to die and metastasize. This study compared a population with a high incidence of delayed childbearing with another population with a lower mean age at childbirth in order to determine whether breast cancer diagnosis and childbearing age overlap.MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed multiple data sources. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program, the United States National Center for Health Statistics as part of the National Vital Statistics System, the United Nations Population Division, the GLOBOCAN Cancer Observatory, the CLIO-INFRA project database, the Human Fertility Database, and anonymized local data were used.ResultsAs women’s age at delivery increased, the convergence between their age distribution at breast cancer diagnosis and childbearing increased. In addition, the overlap between the two age distributions increased by more than 200% as the average age at delivery increased from 27 to 35 years.ConclusionsAs women’s average childbearing age has progressively risen, pregnancy and breast cancer age distributions have significantly overlapped. This finding emphasizes the need for increased awareness and educational efforts to inform women about the potential consequences of delayed childbearing. By providing comprehensive information and support, women can make more informed decisions about their reproductive health and cancer prevention strategies.

Epidemiologic Look at Teen Birth [ID 2683394

INTRODUCTION: To take an epidemiologic look at the most up-to-date geographical variation in the average teenage birth rates by county in the United States. METHODS: Data from the National Center for Health Statistics were used in this retrospective cohort to count the total number of live births to females aged 15–19 years by county between 2003 and 2020. Software for disease surveillance and spatial cluster analysis was used to identify clusters of high or low birth rates in counties or areas of greater than 100,000 teenage females. The data were then further analyzed by unemployment rate, no high school diploma rate, Hispanic rate, African American rate, and poverty rate per county as influence on the prediction of teenage birth rate. RESULTS: Spatial analysis identified 94 significant spatial clusters of teenage births. When adjusted for time and space, there were three significant clusters within Texas, all within 2013–2020, showing a steep increase in teenage birth rates. The top cluster with a 60% higher chance of teenage birth than the remainder of the country. Individual covariates examined showed the best predicter of teenage birth is unemployment followed by low education. CONCLUSION: Nationally, teenage births have declined over the last 30 years; however, clusters of elevated teenage birth rates remain predominantly in the southeastern United States and Texas. When adjusting for covariates of social determinants of health, some of these clusters remained, indicating other factors with influence on teenage birth rate.

Computational Evidence for the Anticancer Activity of Phytochemical Constituents of Terminalia Chebula: An In‐Silico Attempt

AbstractNatural compounds represent Secondary metabolites shaped and endorsed by nature over countless years, showcasing both unique chemical variety and a corresponding range of bioactivities, along with drug‐like attributes. Plant‐derived remedies are projected to comprise approximately 25 % of pharmaceuticals in developed nations. Terminalia chebula earns its title as the “King of medicines” due to its multifaceted pharmacological properties. The phytochemical elements within Terminalia chebula were assessed for their interaction with the human dihydrofolate reductase enzyme (5HT4.pdb) due to its significant role in the development of colorectal cancer. The American Cancer Society provides updated CRC statistics based on incidence from population‐based cancer registries and mortality from the National Center for Health Statistics. In 2023, approximately 153,020 individuals will be diagnosed with CRC and 52,550 will die from the disease, including 19,550 cases and 3750 deaths in individuals younger than 50 years. The compounds TC2 (−8.61 Kcal/mol), TC15 (−7.02 Kcal/mol), and TC23 (−6.98 Kcal/mol) demonstrated higher glide scores. Additionally, TC2 (−71.21 Kcal/mol), TC12 (−101.63 Kcal/mol), TC15 (−81.40 Kcal/mol), and TC29 (−77.47 Kcal/mol) exhibited stronger binding affinities (ΔG Bind) to the target. Based on the outcomes of both docking and MM‐GBSA analyses, TC2 was selected for further investigation via molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, which illustrated the stability of the TC2/5HT4 complex. Among the top‐ranked compounds, TC2 adhered to Lipinski's guidelines for drug‐likeness without any violations. Inhibiting the human DHFR enzyme indirectly hampers the progression of colon cancer. The findings from this in‐silico investigation serve as a foundational basis for potential in vitro and in vivo research.

Black Americans' Drug Mortality Increases and Local Employment Opportunities, 2010‒2021.

Objectives. To test the associations between local employment opportunities for the Black workforce and drug mortality among Black Americans, while examining the potential moderating effects of fentanyl seizure rates. Methods. We derived data from the National Center for Health Statistics' restricted-access Multiple Cause of Death file, linked with county-level job counts, drug supply, and other characteristics from the US Census Bureau and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. After examining the characteristics of counties by the magnitudes of increases in drug mortality from 2010‒2013 to 2018-2021, we conducted a first-differenced regression analysis to test the associations between the job-to-Black workforce ratio and age-adjusted drug mortality rates among Black Americans in US counties and test the moderating effects of state-level fentanyl seizure rates. Results. One more job per 100 Black workers was associated with 0.29 fewer drug overdose deaths per 100 000 Black Americans in the county. This negative association was stronger in the counties of the states with higher increases in fentanyl seizure rates. Conclusions. Increasing employment opportunities can be an important strategy for preventing Black Americans' drug mortality, especially among those living in areas with higher increases in fentanyl seizure rates. (Am J Public Health. 2024;114(7):729-732. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2024.307646).

The Cost-Effectiveness of Computer-Assisted Compared with Conventional Total Knee Arthroplasty: A Payer's Perspective.

Recent evidence showing that computer-assisted total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is associated with better outcomes compared with conventional TKA for patients with end-stage knee osteoarthritis has not been included in economic evaluations of computer-assisted TKA, which are needed to support coverage decisions. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of computer-assisted TKA from a payer's perspective, incorporating recent evidence. We compared computer-assisted TKA with conventional TKA with regard to costs (in 2022 U.S. dollars) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) using Markov models for elderly patients (≥65 years of age) and patients who were not elderly (55 to 64 years of age). Costs and QALYs were estimated in the lifetime for elderly patients and in the short term for patients who were not elderly, under a bundled payment program and a Fee-for-Service program. Transition probabilities, costs, and QALYs were retrieved from the literature, a national knee arthroplasty registry, and the National Center for Health Statistics. Threshold and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the robustness of key estimates used in the base-case analysis. Using projected estimates of TKA utilization, the total cost savings of performing computer-assisted TKA rather than conventional TKA were estimated. Compared with conventional TKA, computer-assisted TKA was associated with higher QALYs and lower costs for both elderly patients and patients who were not elderly, regardless of payment programs, making computer-assisted TKA a favorable treatment option. Widespread adoption of computer-assisted TKA in all U.S. patients would result in an estimated total cost saving of $1 billion for payers. Compared with conventional TKA, computer-assisted TKA reduces costs to payers while providing favorable outcomes. Payers may consider providing additional payment incentives to providers for performing computer-assisted TKA, to achieve outcome improvement and cost control by facilitating widespread adoption of computer-assisted TKA. Economic and Decision Analysis Level II. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

P016 Cardiovascular disease and rheumatoid arthritis among people with a history of cancer

Abstract Background/Aims Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is connected to many comorbidities and vascular diseases. Cancer also has certain inflammatory impact on the physiological mechanisms. However, the precise connection between these variables are unknown. In this research, we determined if there was an association between cardiovascular disease and overall mortality and how this connection may be modified by rheumatoid arthritis. Methods The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) survey was conducted by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) for the six cycles or years of 1999 to 2010 with mortality follow-up through December 31, 2019. This data is published biennially. Our study was conducted on participants with a history of cancer that were aged 40 years or older living in the United States with cardiovascular disease. CVD was determined by a history of stroke, congestive heart failure, coronary heart disease, and myocardial infarction. History of cancer was considered positive if the respondent answered “yes” to the question “Ever told you had cancer or malignancy”. We assessed RA status by using the arthritis question. We determined diabetes by healthcare worker diagnosed recall of the diagnosis of the disease. In this prospective analysis that we performed Complex Samples Cox regression with adjustment for known confounders to determine the relationship of chronic kidney disease and mortality, and if rheumatoid arthritis has an overall relationship in those living with diabetes. Results Among individuals living with cancer and rheumatoid arthritis, percent mortality for males was 58.2% and for females was 61.9%. For overall mortality, crude hazard ratio (HR) for diabetes was 2.13 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.39-3.25 p &amp;lt; 0.001). The adjusted HR was elevated, 1.86 (CI 1.17-2.96, p = 0.01), among people with cardiovascular disease who also had rheumatoid arthritis but close to 1.0 (1.36 CI 1.09-1.70, p = 0.01) among individuals with cardiovascular disease who had no rheumatoid arthritis, after adjusting for medical (cardiovascular disease, asthma, chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and obesity) and demographic risk factors (gender and age). Similar patterns do not exist in the general population. Conclusion Among individuals has had a history of cancer, not only does cardiovascular disease lead to two times higher overall mortality but also rheumatoid arthritis occurrence impacts the relationship between cardiovascular disease and overall mortality even after controlling for potential medical and demographic confounders. Cardiovascular is the primary cause of death in many high- and middle-income countries in the world. More prevention efforts need to be made in order to prevent CVD and treat rheumatoid arthritis. Disclosure J. Khubchandani: None. S. Banerjee: None. C. Onukogu: None. R. Gonzales-Lagos: None.

P040 Obesity and rheumatoid arthritis among individuals with low education

Abstract Background/Aims Poor education is connected to many diseases including cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and some CVD-related risk factors such as obesity. However, precisely how this relationship occurs is unknown. In this research we will be exploring how the connection between obesity and overall mortality is modified by rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Methods Our study was conducted on participants that were aged 20 years or older living in the United States with a education level of only some high school. We assessed RA status by using the arthritis question in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) survey conducted by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) for the years of 1999 to 2010 with mortality follow-up to December 2019. We determined obesity by calculating BMI and setting a cutpoint at 30 kg/m2. Education level was determined through self-reported data. Chronic Kidney Disease was determined using the Cockcroft-Gault equation. Prospective analysis was performed using complex samples Cox regression with adjustment for known confounders to determine the relationship of obesity and mortality, and if RA has an overall relationship in those with low education. Results Among individuals with low education and RA, percent mortality was 32.3% among males and 32.6% among females with mean follow-up of 9.3 years. For overall mortality, the age and sex-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for obesity was 1.18 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-1.34 p = 0.01). The adjusted HR was elevated, 1.56 (CI 1.06-2.32, p = 0.03), among people with obesity who also had RA but close to 1.0 (1.21 CI 0.99-1.47, p = 0.06) among individuals with obesity who had no RA, after adjusting for medical (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, history of cancer, cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes) and demographic risk factors (poverty-income-ratio, age, military service, citizenship, and gender). Conclusion We found that among individuals with low education, not only does obesity lead to 18% higher overall mortality but also RA occurrence impacts the relationship between obesity and overall mortality even after controlling for potential confounders. Education and health literacy are especially important in the preventing and treating RA especially in those who have obesity. With cardiovascular disease having the highest rate of mortality, risk factors for CVD such as obesity must be prevented. Disclosure J. Khubchandani: None. S. Banerjee: None.

Racial, ethnic, and socio-economic disparities in neonatal ICU admissions among neonates born with cyanotic CHD in the United States, 2009-2018.

Disparities in CHD outcomes exist across the lifespan. However, less is known about disparities for patients with CHD admitted to neonatal ICU. We sought to identify sociodemographic disparities in neonatal ICU admissions among neonates born with cyanotic CHD. Annual natality files from the US National Center for Health Statistics for years 2009-2018 were obtained. For each neonate, we identified sex, birthweight, pre-term birth, presence of cyanotic CHD, and neonatal ICU admission at time of birth, as well as maternal age, race, ethnicity, comorbidities/risk factors, trimester at start of prenatal care, educational attainment, and two measures of socio-economic status (Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children [WIC] status and insurance type). Multivariable logistic regression models were fit to determine the association of maternal socio-economic status with neonatal ICU admission. A covariate for race/ethnicity was then added to each model to determine if race/ethnicity attenuate the relationship between socio-economic status and neonatal ICU admission. Of 22,373 neonates born with cyanotic CHD, 77.2% had a neonatal ICU admission. Receipt of WIC benefits was associated with higher odds of neonatal ICU admission (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.20, 95% CI 1.1-1.29, p < 0.01). Neonates born to non-Hispanic Black mothers had increased odds of neonatal ICU admission (aOR 1.20, 95% CI 1.07-1.35, p < 0.01), whereas neonates born to Hispanic mothers were at lower odds of neonatal ICU admission (aOR 0.84, 95% CI 0.76-0.93, p < 0.01). Maternal Black race and low socio-economic status are associated with increased risk of neonatal ICU admission for neonates born with cyanotic CHD. Further work is needed to identify the underlying causes of these disparities.