Abstract 4148077: Heart Failure Mortality Between 1990 and 2020 by US State and Racial and Ethnic Group

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Introduction: Heart failure (HF) mortality rates in the US appear to have increased in the past decade. It is unknown how these have changed in recent years by racial and ethnic groups within states. Research Question: To understand disparities in HF mortality patterns between 1990 and 2020 Aim: To estimate the change in HF mortality rates between 1990 and 2020 for Hispanic, non-Hispanic Black, and non-Hispanic White males and females in each US state Methods: We used multiple cause of death records from the National Vital Statistics System and population data from the National Center for Health Statistics to estimate HF mortality from 1990 to 2020 by state, age group, sex, and racial and ethnic group. A binomial model was fit to the data using RegMod, a Bayesian extension of a generalized linear model which incorporated priors from a hierarchy and modeled year as a spline. Results: In 2020, we estimated 566230 (95% UI 566160 to 569740) deaths due to HF. Between 1990 and 2010, HF rates declined in general for all racial and ethnic groups across the US, but not consistently for all states (Figure). From 2010 to 2020, this trend reversed, with age-standardized mortality from HF increasing over this time period, but again this change was not consistent across states. Among the Hispanic population, mortality increased for all states except for Maine, with the largest change for both sexes in Oklahoma. For the non-Hispanic, Black group, mortality increased among all states, with the largest change for both sexes in Oklahoma and South Dakota. Among the non-Hispanic, White populations, mortality decreased for both sexes in District of Columbia, while the largest increases were in Oklahoma. Conclusion: Heart failure mortality increased in the past decade, with striking increases in specific locations by race and ethnic group. Identifying etiologies and drivers of increased HF deaths, including the role of new therapies for subsets of systolic function, could help target novel therapies to subpopulations at highest risk. Differences in trends by state and race and ethnicity groups provides important information for clinicians and policymakers interested in reducing mortality rates.