National Accounts Statistics Research Articles

What counts as productive? Redefining ‘producers’ in economic discourse, 1890–1960

In this paper, we analyse economic discourse in debates over the production boundary, asking how the boundaries around economic categories change over time. Using a sample of economic textbooks from the late nineteenth to mid-twentieth century we analyse the evolution of the category of productive labour, finding that in the mid-twentieth century economists came to cohere around a conceptualization of productive activity that framed productive labour as any utility that was paid for on a market. Central to this outcome was the development of national accounting statistics that economists came to adopt in their analytical toolkit, which rendered invisible unpaid labour activities. Through this case we can see that statistical representations of the economy can redefine theoretical concepts and redraw the boundaries around economic categories, in this case transforming the boundary of productive labour into that of paid labour.

Nowcasting of advance estimates of personal consumption of Services in the U.S. National Economic Accounts: Individual vs forecasting combination approach

AbstractAs part of continuing effort to research statistical methods for producing timely and accurate early estimates of national accounts statistics, this paper evaluates the ability of individual nowcasting and forecast combination techniques to reduce revisions in the first or advance estimates of U.S. quarterly personal consumption of services at the most detailed component level. At such a level, designated indicators for advance estimates are those directly relevant to the detailed components. Using the same indicators that were used in routine compilations, we show in a real time setting that nowcasting methods are able to reduce revisions in the advance estimates in over 90 percent of the detailed components, and the upper bound of the reductions reached over 60 percent. We evaluate the performances of all methods by comparing their root mean squared revisions for each component. Our study suggests that nowcasting techniques are potentially a powerful tool to reduce revisions in the early estimates in the national account statistics at the most detailed level.

Poverty in India, Rural and Urban Poverty, An Over View

Poverty remains a challenge for India; poverty eradication is an important goal of economic policy. Therefore, the measurement of poverty must be acceptable because it has important political implications. This article presents the methodology followed by the expert group (Rangarajan) and explains some of the issues that have been raised since the publication of the report. In addition to methodology, some of the topics covered in the article are: calorie consumption, multidimensional poverty, urban poverty, NAS (National Accounts Statistics)-NSS (National Sample Survey) public spending and poverty, NSS and SECC (Socio-Economic Caste Census and Poverty the method approved by the new poor group is based on sound principles. As the group explained, this measure is not considered an appropriate basis for determining eligibility for various programs. But a proper anti-poverty measure is useful to get an overall picture of a country's progress. This represents the absolute minimum. It is clear that the goal of policy must be not only to reduce the number of people below this threshold, but also to ensure that people in general have a much higher standard of living. Policymakers must pursue a two-pronged strategy: allowing the economy to grow rapidly and attacking poverty directly with poverty programs.

The Saving-Investment Approach: Determination of Economic Growth of India

Savings and investment are key requirements for growth and development. Savings and investment have been considered as two critical macro-economic variables with microeconomic foundations for achieving price stability and promoting employment opportunities thereby contributing to sustainable economic growth. Since independence Indian economy has been moved from a moderate growth path of 1950-1980 to a higher growth trajectory since 1980s. Over the last four decades, Indian economy has emerged as one of the fastest growing economies of the world. This paper considers savings, investment and economic growth for India using annual time series data for the period 1991/92 to 2017/18. The study make use of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to test for cointegration and Error correction based Granger causality analysis for investigate the causality between the variables. Data for Gross Domestic Savings (GDS) and Gross Domestic Investment (GDI) were taken from the National Accounts Statistics of India and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was taken Reserve Bank of India. The study finds that saving explicitly determines investment in both the short and long runs and there is no evidence is found to support the usually accepted growth models in India, that investment is the engine of economic growth.

Health Accounts and National Accounts: Linking Health Care Expenditure Statistics to National Accounts Statistics

Health Accounts and National Accounts: Linking Health Care Expenditure Statistics to National Accounts Statistics

Looking from Gross Domestic Income: Alternative view of Japan’s economy

This study estimates the Gross Domestic Income (GDI) from taxation data by updating Fujiwara and Ogawa (2016, 2018). The National Account statistics in Japan derives GDI from GDP so that the national accounting identity always holds. However, from the experiences of the U.S. and Australia, where GDI is estimated independently from GDP, the identity does not hold in practice due to differences in data sources, inter alia. We find that the estimate of GDI exceeds GDP by about 20 trillion yen in 2019, which gives quite different readings of potential growth, labor share, household saving ratio, and saving-investment balance of both households and non-financial corporations in recent years. The present study likewise demonstrates how to combine the information of GDE and GDI to obtain true GDP.

Analysis of Output and Employment of Trade and Finance in India: A Case of Disproportional Rise in Output than Employment for Service Sector

Purpose of the study: The study aims to analyse why the service sector in India has not generated employment in the proportion of output when the sector has geared up its share in national income since 1980.
 Methodology: It's based on a simple comparative empirical analysis of data on output and employment of trade and finance in India. Quantitative analysis of output is based on data collected from National Accounts Statistics (NAS). The analysis used data from the base year 2004-05 and back series. On the 2004-05 back series, data is available till the year 2011-12. Therefore, to explain long periods, 1950 to 2012, we used 2004-05 data. However, for the latest analysis of output along with employment, we prefer to use the 2011-12 series GDP data of KLEMS India (published by RBI).
 Employment data is collected primarily from two sources- NSS and KLEMS India. Principal status and subsidiary status (PS+SS) are used for analysis. 
 Main Findings: Trade being a labour-intensive sector has shown proportionate employment generation between 1980 to 2004. After 2004, the story changed. Despite the same pace of growth, employment generation is proportionately lower. The reason is the growing rise in the capital intensity of trade. In the case of finance, capital-intensive is just the opposite of trade- the rise in output is greater in the period, 1980 to 2004 than the concomitant rise in employment. 2004 onwards, rise in employment is greater. The reason is no significant rise in capital intensity in the sector.
 Applications of the study:In macroeconomics, output and employment believed to go hand in hand. However, services defy the dictum- higher rise in GDP share but no corresponding rise in employment share. It helps understand ‘jobless growth’ of Indian economy after reforms of 1991.
 Novelty/Originality of the study: Trade being labour-intensive has changed its nature after 2004, the sector’s capital intensity has grown faster than finance. Further, finance is capital-intensive sector but no significant rise in capital intensity.

Registers or surveys – Does the type of microdata matter for empirical analyses of consumption behavior?

In recent years it has come into focus whether longitudinal microdata on consumption derived from administrative registers can constitute an attractive supplement to survey data. This paper explores the consistency between register-imputed and survey-based consumption figures at the household level for Denmark over the period 2002–15. Moreover, it presents estimated consumer demand functions based on the two types of microdata for the same households. The paper finds no significant differences between the marginal propensities to consume out of income estimated on the basis of the two data sources. Furthermore, it demonstrates a close match between total private consumption in the national-accounts statistics and the register-based consumption microdata aggregated over all households.

2020 Global Stocktaking of National Accounts Statistics: Availability for Policy and Surveillance

2020 Global Stocktaking of National Accounts Statistics: Availability for Policy and Surveillance

Development of the Input-Output Table for Compiling the Social Accounting Matrix

The Republic of Moldova lacks an updated Input-Output Table (IOT), which is necessary for compiling a Social Accounting Matrix and calibrating a Computable General Equilibrium model. The author’s goal is to estimate by economic, mathematical and statistical methods the IOT for 2019 using a IOT for 2014 as a reference. The author first defines an optimal classification of sectors present in IOT-2019 to ensure comparability with IOT-2014. Subsequently, the author reconciles data from National Accounts Statistics, Balance of Payments and budget execution reports to compile the IOT quadrant 1. For quadrants 2 and 3, the columns for which there are statistical data in the aforementioned sources are first determined, after which the missing parts are compiled formulating and solving a mathematical optimization problem, in which the objective function is minimization of structural differences between IOT-2019 and IOT- 2014.

The Milk Producers’ Organization and Indian dairy sector

The needs of the Milk Producers’ Organization are achieved by strengthening the scattered and poorly organized Indian milk producers, who lack access to resources and services. In fact, the Milk Producers’ Organization has emerged as an interface between the business environment and individual milk producers through forward and backward linkages, while facilitating the strength of collective action, bargaining power and economies of scale. It has thus responded appropriately to the economic and socio-cultural needs of producer members and surrounding entities. The National Accounts Statistics (2020) of India estimates that the contribution of livestock in total agriculture and allied sectors Gross Value Added (at Constant Prices) has reached to 28.63 per cent (2018-19) which again shows the importance of the Milk Producers’ Organization in a populous country such as India. The Organization extends its assistance in the form of financial support, technical inputs, milk productivity, quality produce, managing value chains, access to market actors and handling environmental and business regulation. This review paper outlines the key viewpoints and aims to explore how the Milk Producers’ Organization has built capabilities and optimized capacities in the existing scope and challenges of the Indian dairy sector. The livestock sector supports the livelihood of approximately 20.5 million people in India. India’s milk production is at 4.8% CAGR as opposed to 1.8% CAGR of global milk production. However, the Organization faces conflicting areas of interest, such as social concern and business demands and this ambivalence necessitates enabling policy and professionalism to steer organizational growth and sustainability. In view of the globalized business environment, the Milk Producers’ Organization has taken on the responsibility to compete both on the domestic and global markets. In view of emerging international trade practices, further study is required to establish mechanisms to deal with Sanitary and Phytosanitary measures. A co-operative business model can be further explored with additional utilization of bovine manure and unproductive bovines to re-establish a more cost efficient model to deal with global price levels of milk and dairy products.

Government fiscal spending and crowd-out of private investment: An empirical evidence for India

Purpose - The paper evaluates the crowding-in or crowding-out relationship between public and private investment in India, controlling fiscal and monetary variables.Methods - In a flexible accelerator theoretical framework, the paper estimates long and short-run investment dynamics, employing Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration approach. We use a back series of national account statistics that incorporates enhanced coverage of the organized corporate sector. Findings - Our results suggest investment complementarity between the public and private sector at an aggregate and sectoral level over the period 1981-2019. Barring short-run crowding-out in construction and financial services at industry level, public investment stimulates private counterparts, both in the long and short-run. However, fiscal deficit, inflation expectation, and sovereign vulnerability influence private investment adversely. Moreover, the long-run crowding-out bearing of fiscal imbalance is quantitatively higher when the public sector invests in mining and manufacturing and insignificant with infrastructure.Implication - Sizable infrastructure investment as a proportion of government finances would moderate the adverse impact of the deficit on private investment. Further, quality fiscal adjustments and containing inflation would enhance private investment activities.Originality - Besides aggregate and sectoral levels, the study also evaluates the impact of industry-level public investment on private capital expenditure. This paper also incorporates derived variables in the regression framework using statistical filters and the principal component technique.

Shining a new light on the environmental Kuznets curve for CO2 emissions

Abstract This paper examines the existence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between income and CO2 emissions from fossil fuels for a panel of 161 countries over the period 1992–2012. Our contribution, empirical in nature, is threefold. (i) We estimate the Environmental Kuznets Curve for CO2 emissions using three conventional measures of GDP taken from the PWT and the WDI and show that the results of the estimates are unstable and that the turning points are dependent on the measure of GDP. (ii) We use a new dataset of GDP based on the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program's Operational Linescan System (DMSP-OLS) nighttime light imagery as a proxy for the development level, and using these data, which are less prone to the measurement errors in the System of National Accounts statistics, we find evidence for the existence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve for CO2 emissions. (iii) We apply a U test that confirms that the estimated extreme point is within our data range. The evaluated turning point, beyond which CO2 emissions start to fall as income rises, is considerably lower than earlier studies show, and thus, our results provide more optimistic prospects of the possible environmental benefits of economic growth.

On Extension of Aggregate National Transfer Accounts

The article addressed some methodological issues of National Transfer Accounts (NTA) in detail and reviewed the idea of further extension (in terms of wealth accounting) on aggregate - economy-wide-level. NTA as one of the types of satellite accounts are explored. They are constructed on alternative concept relative to System of National Accounts (SNA). The article focuses in-depth on methodological features and logical approaches to compiling some indicators. It further explored the wealth content in the system of NTA, its dual nature (accrued real wealth and transfer wealth), and consequent measuring specifics. Considering international research (US practice), the author discussed established methodological approaches to compiling aggregate wealth accounts and analyzing consumption support in the form of private transfers. Based on Russian national account statistics and aggregate transfer economic account of economic lifecycle compiled for Russia, the article highlighted interconnections between the NTA and the SNA in terms of usage of resources saved in economy to accumulate both non-financial and financial assets. The author pointed out that balance sheet in SNA function as a macro benchmark for measuring total wealth of economy in NTA. Analysis of age structure indicate rapid population aging in Russia over the last decade. The State has been playing an increasing role in financing the economic lifecycle deficit. The question arises: how will this affect private savings? Does the growing social support from the state contain the growth of private savings, partially «replacing» them or not? The information presented in the article, will be useful to readers with an interest in demographic studies and socio-economics.

The Invisible Workers: Capturing Home-based Work in India

The present paper is contextualised within the backdrop of high informality and a declining female labour force participation in India. Women in India are predominantly in the informal sector engaged in various kinds of precarious employment including home based work that remains unaccounted and undercounted in National Accounting Statistics. Since the home based workers are not into a formal employment relationship and mostly work within the domains of the household, they largely remain outside the purview of social protection. The present paper provides an insight into home based work in India and tries to locate home based workers and their employment conditions vis a vis their location in various social groups. It also tries to understand the existing data gaps in capturing home based workers thereby attempting to locate the gender concerns in data sources for providing full visibility to the informal economy. The paper tries to provide policy recommendations for addressing the concerns associated with home-based workers and larger questions on reducing gendered vulnerabilities across social groups for a sustained labour market participation. The paper is based on secondary data from several governmental sources including the Census, National Sample Survey (NSS), Time Use Survey 1998–99 and the Economic Census.

Urbanization in India Before and After the Economic Reforms: What Does the Census Data Reveal?

The main objective of this paper is to analyze the recent trends and patterns of urbanization before and after the economic reforms in India. In addition, the paper explores the emerging patterns of urban growth and captures the changes through development indicators based on the available data from the Census of India and National Accounts Statistics. The study employs an exponential growth rate and a linear model for determining the pace of urbanization, which is then plotted on a scatter diagram. It is surprising to note that wherever urbanization was expected to accelerate, it has instead slowed down. Economic reforms have been not uniformly implemented because of the faulty national economic policy which has discouraged the growth of urban employment and is a cause for concern that requires political attention. The study concludes that economic reforms are necessary for accelerating urbanization, promoting small and medium-sized urban areas, human capital, socio-cultural mobility, and plans for eco-friendly green cities.

Dressing a ghost: size and value of unpaid family care

ABSTRACTUnpaid family care work encompasses care and assistance provided by members of a household to other members. It is not considered to be a productive activity, and its exclusion from national account statistics contributes to keeping it invisible. We compare Italy and Poland, two countries that have taken different paths towards economic development, but share cultural features that influence unpaid family care work. We estimate the value of unpaid family care work with the opportunity cost and the market replacement cost methods, drawing data from the Polish and the Italian time use surveys and the IT-SILC. Our results show that unpaid family care work represents a substantial proportion of national production in both countries, ranging from 3.7 to 5% of GDP, depending on the method of estimation. The results likewise show that the size, gender distribution and value relative to GDP of unpaid family care work are remarkably similar, suggesting that, in spite of the different history of economic development in the two countries, cultural factors play a key role in determining family decisions that affect unpaid family care work.

Overestimation in the Growth Rates of National Income in Recent Years? – An Analyses Based on Extending GDP04-05 through Other Indicators of Output

Quarterly indices of output like those of Industrial Production, other measures of production like net sales, exports, of companies for which data is available, besides proxies like credit to the sector, and indices of price levels have been used to forward project the growth rates of GDP04-05, for the principal sectors of the National Income Accounts (NAS). These were then compared with the growth rates given by the new Gross Value Added (GVA11-12) at constant price measure. It is very highly probable that some sectors of the National Accounts Statistics (NAS) notably Manufacturing, and Trade, Transport, Storage, Hotels and Communication Sectors were overestimated, especially in periods when the output (economic activity) was slowing down. This questions the use of the new GVA series for macroeconomic (policy) actions, wherein more than extensiveness of coverage, the movements over time of the measure have to be reliable and accurate. This is especially so because manufacturing and its related sector – trade etc., are the core sectors which are responsive to changes in policy and to shocks (that could be countered), wherein there is deep overestimation. Some evening out of the overestimation is noticed over the upswing in the business cycle since 2017:2. However the demonetization which rudely reduced demand did not allow the “phase shifting” and “flattening” aspects, which the new GVA series possibly imposes to be examined in detail, although the same is suggested.

Input–Output Table for India 2013–2014: Based on the New Series of National Accounts Statistics and Supply and the Use Table

In our study, we attempt to produce a more up-to-date input–output (I-O) table for India based on the supply and use table (SUT) of the economy and the new series of National Accounts Statistics (NAS). The resulting table has been used to estimate output multipliers for 25 sectors, and these have been compared with multipliers from the last set of I-O officially estimated for the country in 2007–2008. A key difference between the two sets of tables is the inclusion of inputs in the public administration sector in the more recent one, as a result of which the Type-I multiplier of this sector is greater than one in the latter table compared to one in the former. For the same reason, the Type-II multipliers obtained from the 2013–2014 I-O table are broadly higher than those obtained from the 2007–2008 I-O table. Validation has also been done by comparing gross value added (GVA) as a basic price obtained from the national accounts data for 2013–2014 with the GVA arrived at from the constructed I-O table. JEL Classification: C-67, E01

Structural Comparisons through Input-Output (I-O) Tables over Time

There have been a number of studies comparing the economic structure of the economy. The comparisons are done by comparing the changes in sector-wise outputs resulting from (i) Using the same final demand on different I-O tables (Technology effect) and (ii) Changing the final demand and keeping the same I-O table (Demand effect). For some studies even the individual input coefficients have been compared. These comparisons can be effectively done if the sources for the data and methodology of construction of tables are the same. However, there are problems in making a such analysis. At an interval of about five years, the base for National Accounts Statistics is revised. With the revision of the base some changes are made in the estimates leading to huge differences. They are not because of a structural change but the change in output by adding new areas of production. Once this change is made, the revised output has to be adjusted in the row of the sector. With the availability of recent data or changes of data source with each changing series, the estimates differ. For the series with the base 2011-2012, for manufacturing, the concepts have changed from registered and unregistered to organized and unorganized manufacturing. In fact, the CSO has already constructed supply-use tables for the years 20011-2012 and 2012- 2013 by using estimates compiled for the new series of estimation of GDP (2011-2012 base). There are huge differences in the value of output and GVA in case of a number of sectors for the year 2011-2012 for both the series. We have analysed the effects of such changes on the supply use table constructed by CSO for the year 2012-2013.