Narrative Storylines Research Articles

Scenario Storyline Discovery for Planning in Multi‐Actor Human‐Natural Systems Confronting Change

AbstractScenarios have emerged as valuable tools in managing complex human‐natural systems, but the traditional approach of limiting focus on a small number of predetermined scenarios can inadvertently miss consequential dynamics, extremes, and diverse stakeholder impacts. Exploratory modeling approaches have been developed to address these issues by exploring a wide range of possible futures and identifying those that yield consequential vulnerabilities. However, vulnerabilities are typically identified based on aggregate robustness measures that do not take full advantage of the richness of the underlying dynamics in the large ensembles of model simulations and can make it hard to identify key dynamics and/or storylines that can guide planning or further analyses. This study introduces the FRamework for Narrative Storylines and Impact Classification (FRNSIC; pronounced “forensic”): a scenario discovery framework that addresses these challenges by organizing and investigating consequential scenarios using hierarchical classification of diverse outcomes across actors, sectors, and scales, while also aiding in the selection of scenario storylines, based on system dynamics that drive consequential outcomes. We present an application of this framework to the Upper Colorado River Basin, focusing on decadal droughts and their water scarcity implications for the basin's diverse users and its obligations to downstream states through Lake Powell. We show how FRNSIC can explore alternative sets of impact metrics and drought dynamics and use them to identify drought scenario storylines, that can be used to inform future adaptation planning.

Adapting moving‐window metrics to vector datasets for the characterization and comparison of simulated urban scenarios

AbstractDescriptive scenarios about the possible evolution of land use in our cities are essential instruments in urban planning. Although the simulation of these scenarios has enormous potential, further characterization is needed in order to be able to evaluate and compare them so as to provide more effective support for public policy. One of the most commonly used tools for assessing these scenarios is spatial moving‐window metrics, a useful mechanism for extracting accurate information from simulated land‐use maps on urban diversity and urban growth patterns. This article seeks to explore this question further and has two main aims. First, to develop and implement vSHEI and vLEI, two multiscale composition and configuration vector moving‐window metrics for calculating urban diversity and urban growth patterns. Second, to test these metrics using the spatially explicit simulation of three prospective scenarios in the Henares Corridor (Spain), comparing the results and analyzing how well the scenario narratives match their spatial configuration, as measured using vSHEI and vLEI. Via the implementation of vSHEI and vLEI, we obtained urban diversity and urban expansion values at a local level, offering more precise and more realistic, mappable information on the composition and configuration of urban land use than that provided by raster metrics or by vector Patch‐Matrix model metrics. We also used these metrics to test whether the simulated scenarios matched their description in the narrative storylines. Our results demonstrate the potential of vector moving‐window metrics for characterizing the urban patterns that might develop under different scenarios at the parcel level.

Combining a land parcel cellular automata (LP-CA) model with participatory approaches in the simulation of disruptive future scenarios of urban land use change

Urban development is a process that becomes increasingly complex as the city evolves and in which unexpected events can happen which may alter the envisaged trend over time. To anticipate and examine the sudden emergence of processes that are difficult to predict over long-term future timelines, prospective methodologies are required to manage and implement disruptive narrative storylines in future scenario planning. In this research, a method that combines Land Parcel Cellular Automata (LP-CA) and participatory approaches was developed in order to generate land use trajectories that are spatially consistent with disruptive narrative storylines. The urban-industrial corridor of Henares (Spain), which has undergone important urban transformations in recent decades, was chosen as the study area to test the model. In a preliminary validation of the LP-CA model, a Figure of Merit (FOM) value of 0.2817 indicated satisfactory performance. The results demonstrated the usefulness of the participatory scenario-building and the workshop in supporting the configuration of the model parameters and the spatial representation of complex urban dynamics. In conclusion, this methodology can be used to generate simulations of urban land use change in disruptive future scenarios and to spatially observe the propagation of the uncertainty associated with future events across different urban land uses.

Exploring Trans People's Narratives of Transition: Negotiation of Gendered Bodies in Physical Activity and Sport.

This paper explores how trans people who make transitions negotiate their gendered bodies in different moments of this process, and how their narrative storylines are emplotted in physical activity and (non)organized sports (PAS) participation. A qualitative semi-structured interview-based study was developed to analyze the stories of eight trans people (three trans women, two trans men, and three nonbinary persons) who participated in PAS before and during their gender disclosure. A thematic analysis was conducted to identify the patterns in the transition process and the structural analysis of the stories from the interviews. Three transition moments (the closet, opening up, and reassuring) were identified from the thematic analysis. Most participants showed difficulties in achieving their PAS participation during the two earlier moments. The predominance of failure storylines was found particularly in men, while success was more likely to appear in women because their bodies and choices fitted better with their PAS gender ideals. The nonbinary trans persons present alternative storylines in which corporeality has less influence on their PAS experiences. The knowledge provided on the moments and the stories of transition help to explain trans people’s (non)involvement in PAS and to guide policymaking and professional action in PAS fields.

Development of Personas to Communicate Narrative-Based Information About the HPV Vaccine on Twitter.

Introduction: Personas are based on real-life typologies of people that can be used to create characters and messages to communicate important health information through relatable narrative storylines. Persona development is data-driven and can involve multiple phases of formative research and evaluation; however, personas are largely underutilized in digital health research. The purpose of this study was to create and document persona development to deliver narrative-focused health education for parents on Twitter with the goal of increasing uptake of HPV vaccination among adolescents.Methods: Leveraging data from a mixed-method study conducted in the U.S. with a diverse population of parents with adolescents ages 9–14, we used both qualitative and quantitative data (e.g., the National Immunization Survey—Teen, focus groups, and social media) to create personas. These data sources were used to identify and develop key characteristics for personas to reflect a range of parents and their diverse understandings and experiences related to HPV vaccination. A parent advisory board provided insight and helped refine persona development.Results: Four personas emerged and were characterized as the (1) Informed Altruist, (2) Real Talker, (3) Information Gatherer, and (4) Supporter. Characteristics differed across personas and provided insights into targeted narrative strategies. Described attributes included demographics, psychographics, communication style, vaccine goals and aspirations, vaccine challenges and frustrations, and vaccine hesitancy.Discussion: This work demonstrates how multiple data sources can be used to create personas to deliver social media messages that can address the diverse preferences and needs of parents for HPV vaccine information. With increasing usage of social media for health information among parents, it is important for researchers to consider marketing and design thinking to create health communication messages that resonate with audiences.

Combining narrative scenarios, local knowledge and land-use change modelling for integrating soil erosion in a global perspective

Mediterranean soil resources are heavily affected by water erosion. There is a need for anticipating the potential impact of land-use change at the catchment scale, considering a range of contrasted possible changes, in order to prepare a relevant adaptation strategy. While participatory scenario approaches are useful for unveiling the diversity of possible futures, their outputs generally take the form of narratives that may be difficult to relate to biophysical models used for simulating soil and water processes. We addressed this challenge by developing a methodology combining narrative scenarios and land-use change modelling at the catchment scale, interacting with local stakeholders who were involved throughout the research, in line with current Land System research. First, we built contrasted scenarios, each with a narrative story and quantitative assumptions for key variables. Then we drew up rules for translating narrative scenarios into spatially explicit maps based on expert groups and local knowledge, simulating the evolution of land use over time. Third, we evaluated and validated the final scenarios by conducting two workshops with scientists and local stakeholders. Finally, we assessed the impact of these scenarios on agricultural production and erosion control. This approach was implemented in the Tleta basin (Morocco), a 180 km2 rural watershed, 10 km from Tangiers and heavily affected by water erosion. As a result, we propose three contrasted spatially explicit land-use change scenarios by 2040. Our work highlights the interest of combining narrative storylines and land-use modelling when developing spatially explicit scenarios at the catchment scale, incorporating the local knowledge of stakeholders. The combination of Land System and ecosystem frameworks contributes to integrating the soil erosion issue in a more global perspective, and lays the foundation for building sustainable strategies for Mediterranean catchments affected by soil erosion.

Citizen Participation in Low-Carbon Energy Systems: Energy Communities and Its Impact on the Electricity Demand on Neighborhood and National Level

In this work, the main research question is how a high penetration of energy communities (ECs) affects the national electricity demand in the residential sector. Thus, the existing building stock of three European regions/countries, namely, the Iberian Peninsula, Norway, and Austria, is analyzed and represented by four different model energy communities based on characteristic settlement patterns. A tailor-made, open-source model optimizes the utilization of the local energy technology portfolio, especially small-scale batteries and photovoltaic systems within the ECs. Finally, the results on the national level are achieved by upscaling from the neighborhood level. The findings of different 2030 scenarios (building upon narrative storylines), which consider various socio-economic and techno-economic determinants of possible future energy system development, identify a variety of modification potentials of the electricity demand as a result of EC penetration. The insights achieved in this work highlight the important contributions of ECs to low-carbon energy systems. Future work may focus on the provision of future local energy services, such as increasing cooling demand and/or high shares of electric vehicles, further enhancement of the upscaling to the national level (i.e., considering the distribution network capacities), and further diversification of EC composition beyond the residential sector.

Remaking ocean governance in Aotearoa New Zealand through boundary-crossing narratives about ecosystem-based management

Despite international advances in linking ecosystem knowledge and ecosystem-based management (EBM) frameworks, progress in Aotearoa New Zealand to develop holistic ocean management has been hesitant and slow. The paper explores ocean governance by combining enactive narratives and boundary-crossing thinking. Strategic use of narratives can energise different collective imaginaries for holistic ocean governance at various scales. The narrative resources developed steer towards place making approaches enabling connected and holistic governance. This reflective paper revisits co-journeying and thought extensions, with the aim of supporting the reader to also think and do marine governance differently. We tell a story of co-creating narrative resources to show our navigation of the difficulties and learnings therein. We emphasise contextualising and development of narrative storylines, and the enactive workshop processes through which a distinctive bicultural, socio-scientific and grounded multi-media portfolio of narratives was produced. Five EBM narrative resources were circulated for review to gain feedback into how narratives as carriers of critical messages about marine governance practices might be received in different settings. We use boundary thinking to examine the translational possibilities and performative effects of deploying narratives. Feedback revealed deep tensions when reviewers assessed the narratives in terms of personal and professional positionings, and when reflecting on the social and collective work that EBM narratives provoke. The research provokes urgent recognition of the complexity of both the conception and practicalities of advancing holistic ocean governance, whilst also providing techniques for navigating these complexities.

Nordic Bioeconomy Pathways: Future narratives for assessment of water-related ecosystem services in agricultural and forest management

Further development of the bioeconomy, the substitution of bioresources for fossil resources, will lead to an increased pressure on land and water resources in both agriculture and forestry. It is important to study whether resultant changes in land management may in turn lead to impairment of water services. This paper describes the Nordic Bioeconomy Pathways (NBPs), a set of regional sectoral storylines nested within the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) framework developed to provide the BIOWATER research program with land management scenarios for projecting future developments to explore possible conflicts between land management changes and the Water Framework Directive (WFD). The NBPs are a set of narrative storylines capturing a range of plausible future trajectories for the Nordic bioeconomy until 2050 and that are fit for use within hydrological catchment modelling, ecosystem service studies and stakeholder dialogue about possible changes in agricultural and forestry management practices.

Integrating Data-Driven and Participatory Modeling to Simulate Future Urban Growth Scenarios: Findings from Monastir, Tunisia

Current rapid urbanization trends in developing countries present considerable challenges to local governments, potentially hindering efforts towards sustainable urban development. To effectively anticipate the challenges posed by urbanization, participatory modeling techniques can help to stimulate future-oriented decision-making by exploring alternative development scenarios. With the example of the coastal city of Monastir, we present the results of an integrated urban growth analysis that combines the SLEUTH (slope, land use, exclusion, urban extent, transportation, and hill shade) cellular automata model with qualitative inputs from relevant local stakeholders to simulate urban growth until 2030. While historical time-series of Landsat data fed a business-as-usual prediction, the quantification of narrative storylines derived from participatory scenario workshops enabled the creation of four additional urban growth scenarios. Results show that the growth of the city will occur at different rates under all scenarios. Both the “business-as-usual” (BaU) prediction and the four scenarios revealed that urban expansion is expected to further encroach on agricultural land by 2030. The various scenarios suggest that Monastir will expand between 127–149 hectares. The information provided here goes beyond simply projecting past trends, giving decision-makers the necessary support for both understanding possible future urban expansion pathways and proactively managing the future growth of the city.

Narratives on educational processes in health.

The scope of this study was to analyze the narratives of health professionals about their experiences on courses aimed at the development of knowledge and practices in health education. Two analytical categories formed the basis of this study: experience and temporality. In the analysis, narratives constructed based upon the educational experiences of health professionals in postgraduate courses were used, in order to give substance to their reflections in relation to given learning trajectories. These courses are based on articulated activities that simulate practices and performances in realistic scenarios. In analytical terms, the focus is on the structural components of the narrative (contexts, scenarios, storylines and actors), as well as the articulation between these components and the theoretical principles of the study. Among the results obtained, the highlight is on the active methodologies that are the central players in the storylines, thereby providing an opportunity to consider health training in a way that is different from traditional approaches. Among other aspects, the conclusion reached is that these narratives provide new possibilities such that, in addition to the cognitive domain and theoretical understanding, this practice may be valued and exploited as a historical and social construction based on both words and actions.

Linking narratives and energy system modelling in transport scenarios: A participatory perspective from Denmark

In energy and transport policy research, the creative process of building narrative storylines allows investigating future structures of the system under analysis, thus interpreting causal relations and interdependencies. Quantitative tools instead model the deterministic structure of the system, thus enhancing the validity of input assumptions and presenting long-term implications of policies. However, the process of integrating narratives and modelling remains an intricate phase for deriving robust policy recommendations. The present paper investigates the iterative and participatory application of driving forces in bridging qualitative and quantitative methods in transport scenarios, presenting the case of the Danish transport sector. Stakeholders generate key driving forces and narratives of transport futures as a collective action. Subsequently, a structured prioritization, translation and quantification of the driving forces and qualitative storylines yields the generation of quantitative scenarios in the energy system model TIMES-DK. We discuss the opportunities and challenges of our approach, underlining that the use of multiple driving forces is a critical aspect for the creation of coherent storylines. The communication among actors has a central role in the iterative process for increasing mutual enrichment and validation. The existing gap between modelling results and the future evolution of the transport sector can be overcome by reinforcing a constant dialogue, as to both embrace stakeholders’ perspectives, and to secure an impact on transport policy making.

Assessing the Potential Use of Narrative and the Entertainment Education Strategy In an mHealth Text-Message Intervention

As the use of mobile phones for health promotion continues to grow, more work needs to be done to determine which health communication strategies are influential on mobile devices. In two studies conducted with college women in the United States, we assessed the potential for the use of narratives, a strategy found successful in a number of communication channels, in a text-message intervention. The first study consisted of seven focus groups with young women (n = 31) about their perceptions of narrative storylines in a text-message intervention about alcohol and casual sexual encounters. In a second study, we then used an experiment (n = 137) to test the potential of narrative messages to influence transportation, counter-arguing, identification, attitudes toward the intervention type, and attitudes toward the messages. Results showed that women were interested in the possibility of receiving health messages, including narrative health messages, via text message. However, the experiment found limited differences between narrative, non-narrative, and control conditions. Transportation was greater in the narrative condition than in the control, but did not significantly differ from the non-narrative condition. Counter-arguing was also greater in the narrative condition than in the non-narrative condition. Participants who viewed the narrative messages had more positive attitudes toward the messages. Based on both studies, we found that the use of narratives in text messages may be a promising strategy, but it may be a challenge to craft effective content.

Realising transition pathways for a more electric, low-carbon energy system in the United Kingdom: Challenges, insights and opportunities

The United Kingdom has placed itself on a transition towards a low-carbon economy and society, through the imposition of a legally-binding goal aimed at reducing its ‘greenhouse gas’ emissions by 80% by 2050 against a 1990 baseline. A set of three low-carbon, socio-technical transition pathways were developed and analysed via an innovative collaboration between engineers, social scientists and policy analysts. The pathways focus on the power sector, including the potential for increasing use of low-carbon electricity for heating and transport, within the context of critical European Union developments and policies. Their development started from narrative storylines regarding different governance framings, drawing on interviews and workshops with stakeholders and analysis of historical analogies. The quantified UK pathways were named Market Rules, Central Co-ordination and Thousand Flowers; each reflecting a dominant logic of governance arrangements. The aim of the present contribution was to use these pathways to explore what is needed to realise a transition that successfully addresses the so-called energy policy ‘ trilemma,’ i.e. the simultaneous delivery of low carbon, secure and affordable energy services. Analytical tools were developed and applied to assess the technical feasibility, social acceptability, and environmental and economic impacts of the pathways. Technological and behavioural developments were examined, alongside appropriate governance structures and regulations for these low-carbon transition pathways, as well as the roles of key energy system ‘actors’ (both large and small). An assessment of the part that could possibly be played by future demand side response was also undertaken in order to understand the factors that drive energy demand and energy-using behaviour, and reflecting growing interest in demand side response for balancing a system with high proportions of renewable generation. A set of interacting and complementary engineering and techno-economic models or tools were then employed to analyse electricity network infrastructure investment and operational decisions to assist market design and option evaluation. This provided a basis for integrating the analysis within a whole systems framework of electricity system development, together with the evaluation of future economic benefits, costs and uncertainties. Finally, the energy and environmental performance of the different energy mixes were appraised on a ‘life-cycle’ basis to determine the greenhouse gas emissions and other ecological or health burdens associated with each of the three transition pathways. Here, the challenges, insights and opportunities that have been identified over the transition towards a low-carbon future in the United Kingdom are described with the purpose of providing a valuable evidence base for developers, policy makers and other stakeholders.

Museum/space/discourse: analyzing discourse in three dimensions in Denver’s History Colorado Center

Museums have recently gained attention from cultural geographers as important sites of cultural production and reproduction. Within this growing field of ‘museum geographies’, we focus on how discourses are arranged in the three-dimensional spaces of galleries and exhibits. We argue that the spatial arrangement of text, media, and artifacts shape narrative storylines and suggest sequences, connections, progressions, and pathways within and between exhibits. In doing so, the spatial arrangement of these museum ‘assemblages’ is tied to the meaning of the underlying discourse. Looking at discourse in three dimensions offers a way for cultural geographers to contribute to an interdisciplinary study of museums, as well as to other modes of discourse where the spatial form of the text contributes to its meaning. We explore this methodology through a study of the History Colorado Center, a recently opened museum in Denver, CO. The center’s exhibits, designed to confront critical histories of the state and the American West, are designed as immersive multimedia reconstructions of Colorado sites and stories, and include iconic regional imagery as well as more dissonant episodes of Colorado’s past. Through an analysis of these exhibits, we highlight how the connections made across museum spaces can enhance or detract from intended exhibit themes. In the History Colorado Center, these spatial arrangements both contribute to and detract from the museum’s presentation of a critically nuanced state history. However, we argue, the spatial arrangements of discourse merit further attention, for museum geographies as well as across other media.

Relational governance in outsourcing partnerships

Purpose The paper aims to capture the nuances of two client–supplier relationships to offer new insights on the influences of transactional, knowledge and social elements in outsourcing partnerships. Design/methodology/approach The study has used descriptive case studies with narrative storylines. Interviews were conducted with three relationship managers (boundary gatekeepers) to understand preferred governance practices between clients and suppliers in diverse economic markets. Findings Experiences of three real-life cases engaged in offshore outsourcing have helped to identify the market, operational knowledge and social influences in a relational exchange. Findings reveal that offshore partnerships are first constituted with service-level agreements, which set control measures and layout business expectations from both partners. Boundary gatekeepers bring further accountability across firms by designing social networks for capturing and sharing of knowledge, thereby reducing each partner’s perception of risk. As firms evaluate transactional, knowledge and social elements for building a futuristic relational exchange, more disaggregated and dispersed enterprises evolve as new opportunities are explored in foreign markets. Research limitations/implications The retrospective nature of the client–supplier partnership is a limitation in this research study. However, retrospection adds to experience, and to practice perspectives made in hindsight, and therefore has a positive influence in this study. Originality/value This paper shares real-world experiences that can be used by scholars and practitioners to better understand how relational governance practices operate in a global socio-economic setting.

Depth Modulation: Composing motion in immersive audiovisual spaces

The field of electroacoustic music has witnessed years of extensive exploration of aural spatial perception and an abundance of spatialisation techniques. Today the growing ubiquity of visual 3D technologies gives artists a similar opportunity in the realm of visual music. With the use of stereoscopic video we now have the ability to compose individual depth cues independently. The process of continuous change of the perceived depth of the audiovisual space over time is being referred to as depth modulation, and can only be fully appreciated through motion.What can be achieved through the separation and manipulation of visual and sonic spatial cues? What can we learn about the way we perceive space if the basic components building our understanding of the surrounding environment are artificially split and re-arranged?Visual music appears to be a perfect field for such experimentation. Strata of visual and aural depth cues can be used to create audiovisual counterpoints in three-dimensional spaces. The choice of abstract imagery and the lack of obvious narrative storylines allow us to focus our perception on the evolution of the immersive audiovisual space itself. A new language of an immersive audiovisual medium should emerge as a delicate, ever-changing balance between all previously separated and altered components.

Positive Emotional Responses to Hybridised Writing about a Socio-Scientific Issue

In order to understand better the role of affect in learning about socio-scientific issues (SSI), this study investigated Year 12 students’ emotional arousal as they participated in an online writing-to-learn science project about the socio-scientific issue of biosecurity. Students wrote a series of hybridised scientific narratives, or BioStories, that integrate scientific information about biosecurity with narrative storylines, and uploaded these to a dedicated website. Throughout their participation in the project, students recorded their emotional responses to the various activities (N = 50). Four case students were also video recorded during selected science lessons as they researched, composed and uploaded their BioStories for peer review. Analysis of these data, as well as interview data obtained from the case students, revealed that pride, strength, determination, interest and alertness were among the positive emotions most strongly elicited by the project. These emotions reflected students’ interest in learning about a new socio-scientific issue, and their enhanced feelings of self-efficacy in successfully writing hybridised scientific narratives in science. The results of this study suggest that the elicitation of positive emotional responses as students engage in hybridised writing about SSI with strong links to environmental education, such as biosecurity, can be valuable in engaging students in education for sustainability.

Attitudinal impact of hybridized writing about a socioscientific issue

AbstractThe development of scientifically literate citizens remains an important priority of science education; however, growing evidence of students' disenchantment with school science continues to challenge the realization of this aim. This triangulation mixed methods study investigated the learning experiences of 152 9th grade students as they participated in an online science‐writing project on the socioscientific issue of biosecurity. Students wrote a series of hybridized scientific narratives, or BioStories, that integrate scientific information about biosecurity with narrative storylines. The students completed an online Likert‐style questionnaire, the BioQuiz, which examined selected aspects of their attitudes toward science and science learning, prior to their participation in the project, and upon completion of the writing tasks. Statistical analyses of these results and interview data obtained from participating students suggest that hybridized writing about a socioscientific issue developed more positive attitudes toward science and science learning, particularly in terms of the students' interest and enjoyment. Implications for research and teaching are also discussed. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Res Sci Teach 48: 878–900, 2011

Combining participative backcasting and exploratory scenario development: Experiences from the SCENES project

Social, natural and cultural systems are changing rapidly, influencing the future of Europe's fresh waters. One of the drivers shaping this future is the implementation of the Water Framework Directive. Participatory scenario development is well-suited to the challenges posed by the WFD to develop a long-term view by involving stakeholders. In this paper we analyse the process and results of a series of stakeholder workshops to develop scenarios at pan-European level. Specifically, we aim at analysing the method and results of combining a backcasting methodology and exploratory scenario development process. Four exploratory scenarios (narrative storylines) were developed, in first instance based on a set of existing European scenarios. Results matched expectations; the process produced stories that are complex, integrated, and rich in detail. During the backcasting exercise, four timelines were constructed, each of which took one exploratory scenario as context. The backcasting process established a strong link with the exploratory scenarios by identifying a large number of obstacles and opportunities in the realisation of those timelines. An analysis across all backcasts yielded a list of 15 robust elements, i.e. elements that are potentially effective in all exploratory scenarios. A stakeholder questionnaire showed that overall there was a widespread satisfaction with both the process and the results. Stakeholders were satisfied with the overall methodology and the exploratory scenarios and somewhat more critical on the backcasting exercise and resulting robust strategies. Above all, we hope to have demonstrated that it is conceptually appealing, methodologically feasible, and practically useful to combine exploratory scenario development and backcasting analysis.