Linking narratives and energy system modelling in transport scenarios: A participatory perspective from Denmark

Abstract

In energy and transport policy research, the creative process of building narrative storylines allows investigating future structures of the system under analysis, thus interpreting causal relations and interdependencies. Quantitative tools instead model the deterministic structure of the system, thus enhancing the validity of input assumptions and presenting long-term implications of policies. However, the process of integrating narratives and modelling remains an intricate phase for deriving robust policy recommendations. The present paper investigates the iterative and participatory application of driving forces in bridging qualitative and quantitative methods in transport scenarios, presenting the case of the Danish transport sector. Stakeholders generate key driving forces and narratives of transport futures as a collective action. Subsequently, a structured prioritization, translation and quantification of the driving forces and qualitative storylines yields the generation of quantitative scenarios in the energy system model TIMES-DK. We discuss the opportunities and challenges of our approach, underlining that the use of multiple driving forces is a critical aspect for the creation of coherent storylines. The communication among actors has a central role in the iterative process for increasing mutual enrichment and validation. The existing gap between modelling results and the future evolution of the transport sector can be overcome by reinforcing a constant dialogue, as to both embrace stakeholders’ perspectives, and to secure an impact on transport policy making.