Municipal Solid Waste Generation Research Articles

Forecasting and Cross-Correlation of Series on the Waste Generation, Population, GDP and Household Consumption Expenditures in Jordan

The household waste is the biggest contributor to the total municipal solid waste generation. The main objective of the research is to discover the Jordanian economy in four dimensions: the household waste generation, the number of population, the gross domestic product (GDP) at purchasers’ prices, and the household final consumption expenditures. In the focus of interest are (1) finding adequate time series models for forecasting of the number of population, the GDP at purchasers’ prices, the household final consumption expenditures, and the household waste generation; (2) the cross-correlation between the household waste generation variable and other variables – population, GDP and household final consumption expenditures. The analysis of cross-correlation functions has revealed that pairs of series (waste/gdp, waste/consumption, waste/population) move in one direction with no shift in time of one series to the other. The relationship in every pair of series is significant. It is expected that in the short-run, ceteris paribus, with the growth of the population numbers, GDP and/or household consumption expenditures, the level of household waste generation in the country will also grow in a close relationship. Appropriate ARIMA models have been proposed to use for the short-run forecastsing of time series. The research outcomes are useful for policy makers to realize the scale of the household waste problem and to optimize capital expenditures into the waste management system of Jordan.

Evaluation of thermochemical and kinetic characterisation of lignite and municipal solid waste and their blends for sustainable and clean conversion under TGa

With the expansion in generation of municipal solid waste (MSW) due to population growth, and also increase the demand of clean energy production, and the curb of landfilling of MSW, it has established the need of our society to use MSW with the available lignite under-the-vision of waste-to-energy (WtE). The WtE technique is an environment-friendly way for disposing of MSW into the useful way globally. The thermal characteristics of MSW with lignite and their blends were investigated to analyze thermal stability. Blends of 10%, 20%, 30%, and 50% of MSW with lignite were prepared and tested in thermogravimetric analyzer from ambient to 1000?C under heating-rate 10?C per minute. This study revealed that steep in weight-loss profiles in thermogravimetric curves was reduced as MSW contents increased. It was observed, MSW proportions in blends significantly affect the combustion profiles and associated parameters like ignition temperature, weight-loss and activation energy. The blends showed combustion properties of MSW and lignite as maximum weight-loss occurred between the individual fuels. Moreover, results indicated that with low proportion of MSW as 10% didn't significantly affect the combustion behavior and properties. While blend 30% shows the more thermal stability than other samples. Thermal profiles of all blended samples occurred in between of the parent samples. Results obtained from experiment help to predict co-combustion thermal behavior of MSW and lignite in existing facilities to generate clean-energy in sustainable way from commercial power plants. The kinetic parameters obtained by Horowitz-Metzger method showed improvement in ignition performance and find the difference between blends.

An Intelligent App-based System for Waste Segregation and Collection

Municipal solid waste generation in India is increasing as a result of rapid urbanisation and a growing population. Due to gaps in the existing waste collection, treatment and recovery methods, large-scale unscientific disposal and lesser waste recovery have been observed. Insufficient source segregation, unorganised efforts, less awareness and indifference towards malpractice, and a lack of strict implementation were identified as the causes through literature review, surveys and interviews, Therefore, there is a need for a system of interventions, which organises efforts toward waste management and reduces the tolerance for source segregation errors. This paper aims to provide a solution that increases community participation and prevents the generation of mixed waste to ensure waste recovery. The proposed framework integrates municipal solid waste, human elements, and technology into an intelligent app-based system. This includes a smart bin that segregates waste at the source through image classification and an application for communication and data collection.

AN INVESTIGATION OF THE MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE DUMPSITES CAPACITIES IN THE FEDERAL CAPITAL TERRITORY, ABUJA.

Municipal solid waste (MSW) management is a critical concern in rapidly urbanizing areas, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and Nigeria, where population growth, rapid urbanization, and poverty worsen waste generation challenges. This thesis focuses on Abuja, a fast-growing city facing escalating MSW issues. With a projected population increase to 6.1 million by 2035, there is a pressing need to assess the capacities of existing waste dumpsites. A previous study revealed a current MSW generation rate of 973,557 tonnes in 2023, Abuja faces environmental and health threats if not managed effectively. Indiscriminate waste disposal risks air, soil, and water pollution, impacting public health and the environment. The research aims to comprehensively evaluate the state of MSW management in Abuja, focusing on dumpsite capacities. The objectives include assessing current dumpsite capacities, estimating MSW compositions, projecting future waste generation trends based on population growth, and proposing efficient dumpsite distribution for effective MSW disposal. The study's key findings include variations in waste composition among dumpsites with organic waste composition above 50%, insufficient capacities to accommodate future waste generation due to the findings that the current dumpsites capacity is 3,182,313.2m3 while the prediction for waste generation from 2024 to 2035 is 49,385,574.2m3, and a significant projected increase in waste generation by 2035. The linear regression model highlights the importance of adaptive waste management practices, and six potential dumpsite locations are suggested.

Context and prospects for decentralized composting of Municipal Solid Waste in Brazil

Factors such as urbanization contribute to the constant increase in the generation of municipal solid waste, of which the organic fraction is the most significant. Composting is a versatile and scalable alternative for managing organic waste, and European countries have been intensifying the adoption of this strategy, both centrally and decentrally. On the other hand, the management of the Organic Fraction of Municipal Solid Waste (OFMSW) in Brazil, with the exception of unsuccessful experiments with centralized composting systems, is limited to disposal in landfills or dumps, rendering recoverable organic material useless and generating significant emissions of methane, one of the main greenhouse gases. Studies addressing decentralized composting as a strategy to improve waste management are still infrequent in Brazil. In this context, this article aimed to outline an overview of the generation of OFMSW in the world and in Brazil, as well as initiatives for its proper management. Based on a literature review, it compares the management of OFMSW in Europe and Brazil, and points out perspectives from the current Brazilian regulatory framework. Then, it discusses the potential benefits and challenges in implementing and operating decentralized systems. Decentralized composting (community or domestic) is a low-cost alternative for the management of OFMSW, but requires citizen engagement, in addition to attention to the quality of the final products. Future studies should address the positive impacts and possible restrictions of this alternative in Brazilian contexts, contributing to enable its integration into the management models currently adopted in the country.

Municipal solid waste (MSW) under the population shrinking and aging: Spatio-temporal patterns, driving forces, and the impact of smart city development

The phenomenon of shrinking and aging populations has profound implications for socioeconomic sustainability and presents unique challenges for managing municipal solid waste (MSW). These challenges have yet to be comprehensively understood thus far. In this study, we focus on the Circum-Bohai-Sea area in China (CBS) to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of MSW generation under the population shrinking and aging. Results showed that the MSW growth rate reduced from 3.2% (2011–2015) to 1.6% (2016–2020) with population shrinking and aging. Geographical and temporal weighted regression (GTWR) revealed that disposable personal income and total population are the predominant drivers of MSW growth. In contrast, the population change rate and the proportion of elderly were the key factors for MSW reduction. Urban MSW reduction exhibited higher sensitivity to population shrinking, resulting in a 141.6% greater reduction compared to rural MSW for every 1% population shrinking. Conversely, rural MSW reduction displayed a greater response to population aging, with a 19.7% reduction more than urban MSW for every 1% increase in the proportion of the elderly. Based on scenario analysis, the smart city development will curb population shrinking (7.6%), while increasing the well-being, life expectancy, and population share of the elderly (3.4%). Future population shrinking and aging is expected to contribute to the growth of MSW, and this trend is further amplified by the development of smart city. However, smart city development led to MSW reduction overall with an MSW amount of 76.8 Mt (7.5% lower than in the business-as-usual scenario) by 2040, mainly attributed to smart sanitation technology. This study offers valuable insights for decision-makers in MSW management, not only in China but also for other countries grappling with population regression challenges.

Anaerobic digestion of the organic fraction of municipal solid waste in a simulated bioreactor to improve predictive modeling of landfill systems

Municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is increasing globally, containing up to 57 % organic matter. Trapping and extraction of methane (CH4) produced via anaerobic digestion (AD) of the organic fraction of MSW (OFMSW) reduces CH4 released from landfills into the atmosphere. To estimate CH4 production from OFMSW, mathematical models are frequently used, but their accuracy varies under the non-ideal conditions that are inevitable in real landfilling scenarios. This work calibrates first-order decay (FOD) and Gompertz models for predicting CH4 production from the OFMSW based on experimental results from a pilot-scale landfill bioreactor operating under non-ideal conditions, namely under dry and mesophilic conditions with low leachate recirculation inteded to represent landfills in developing countries. This study achieved a 73 % and 66 % reduction in volatile solids (VS) and total solids (TS), respectively, demonstrating successful organic degradation. Models were calibrated using laboratory data, showing high correlation and accuracy >80 % in a Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) mass balance. The experiment produced 104.3 mL CH4 g−1 VS with accurate predictions from calibrated models Non-calibrated models, however, overestimated methane production by 75 %. Work highlights the importance of modifying models for non-ideal conditions, and results provide useful information for landfills in developing countries.

Pollutant dispersion model in landfills by GILTT technique

The expansion of urban centers leads to an increase in the generation of municipal solid waste (MSW). In this way, due to the exorbitant amount of MSW produced annually, studies on the form of disposal of this waste are necessary, so that they are properly disposed of, due to environmental safety and reduction of risks to human health. Therefore, mathematical modeling is an essential tool in the study about the dispersion of pollutants in the porous medium, in this case, in relation to how the water table can be reached by these pollutants. Thus, this work intends to carry out a study of a two-dimensional model of the dispersion of pollutants in sanitary landfills, considering the governing equation in the dimensionless form. In the problem under study, a continuous and uniform leakage from a MSW storage cell is considered. The adopted model is solved by the Generalized Integral Laplace Transform Technique (GILTT) method, whose solution is analytical, except for the truncation error in the infinite series. The results obtained show that the proposed method is effective with the physical characteristics of the problem.

Life cycle assessment of kerbside waste material for an open-looped and closed-loop production– towards circular economy designs

Urbanization growth has increased the generation of municipal solid waste (MSW) and has the potential for recycling and reuse. However, it is frequently limited to a linear lifecycle mode which end up in landfills. A novel attributional lifecycle inventory model for lifecycle assessment based on value retention process (VRP) model of circular economy was developed to quantify the lifecycle inventory and measure the environmental impacts of multiple lifecycle stages, from in-community separation to the end-of-use/life stage and subsequent lifecycles. This investigation focused on assessing the environmental impacts of two distinct in-community waste glass separation methods - separate kerbside glass recycling bin (SKGRB) and mixed kerbside recycling bin (MKRB) - in combination with two recycling approaches - open-loop (asphalt) and closed-loop (glass container). The goal of the study was to make a comparative evaluation of the environmental impacts of these methods. Results showed that the SKGRB method had better environmental performance (40–60% reduction compared to the MKRB method) for both materials. Closed-loop recycling of glass container production had higher environmental impacts due to higher energy consumption in production in one lifecycle, while the open-loop recycling method of asphalt had higher environmental impacts despite fewer circulations, due to higher production volume in 21 years. The results of the sensitivity/uncertainty analysis showed that environmental impacts decreased as the allocation coefficient decreased, reaching stability when the coefficient reached the waste materials percentage in the new product's mixed design.

Modelling of air emissions from open burning of municipal waste in Ilorin Metropolis, North Central Nigeria

AbstractIncreased urbanization and population growth have led to a rise in municipal solid waste (MSW) generation, necessitating the need for improved infrastructure and handling methods. Improper disposal practices, particularly open burning at dumpsites, have become common in emerging urban cities, posing serious environmental and health risks. This study aims at evaluating the pollutants often emitted into the environment during the open burning of solid wastes using the American Meteorological Society/Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory Model (AERMOD) model under three scenarios. The ground‐level concentrations of pollutants emitted were compared with the statutory limits of the World Health Organization (WHO) at selected receptor locations. The predicted maximum concentrations from the model for PM2.5 were 4184, 8633, and 10,419 μg/m3 and for PM10 were 16,481, 20,915, and 23,114 μg/m3 for scenarios 1, 2, and 3, respectively. The WHO limits of PM2.5 and PM10 were observed to be exceeded from 2500%–17,400% and 312.5%–4200% for scenario three representing the worst‐case scenario. Ilorin metropolis was revealed to be the receptor location with the highest impact. Waste‐to‐energy and other cleaner waste treatment options should be adopted to protect public health and environment.

Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from municipal solid waste in Sub-Saharan Africa via sustainable waste management: An economic benefit assessment

Municipal solid waste (MSW) management is a major challenge for cities worldwide, particularly in Africa. This study used an emission-reduction framework to assess the economic benefit of sustainable MSW management in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) over a 60-year period (2000–2060). Two waste-to-energy (WTE) methods, sanitary landfills and anaerobic digestion, were used to assess the potential electricity generation from MSW under four waste collection scenarios. The assessment was compared to the potential economic damage from cumulative methane (CH4) emissions under business-as-usual waste management practices for the same period. The results show that energy recovery from current MSW generation forecasts can contribute to 100–245 kWh per capita electricity generation between 2025 and 2060, depending on the WTE technology employed. The net present value (NPV) of WTE technologies is less than half the dollar cost of the potential economic damage from methane emissions. These results have significant policy implications for increasing access to sustainable and clean energy in SSA countries. Given that the current average per capita electricity generation in SSA is 158 kWh and that several countries in the area are experiencing energy problems, MSW electricity generation offers untapped economic development prospects. These findings highlight the economic advantages of effective waste management in SSA to mitigate future environmental and climate change consequences of greenhouse gas emissions. Furthermore, this study underscores the need for stakeholders to develop cost-effective and sustainable waste management strategies to avoid possible future economic and environmental damage in SSA.

Spatiotemporal Variability in Municipal Solid Waste Production and the Determinants in Hefei’s Core Urban Districts

Precision in discerning the spatiotemporal dynamics of municipal solid waste (MSW) production and its drivers is pivotal for informing the seasonal management and recycling of urban waste streams. This investigation zeroed in on Hefei’s central urban zone, deploying a nuanced principal component analysis and geographically and temporally weighted regression (PCA-GTWR) to quantify the sway of the environmental, economic, and living standard variables on the MSW generation patterns. The methodology unfolded across four main phases: (1) leveraging nocturnal light data to approximate the MSW output; (2) employing spatial autocorrelation to probe the variable trends and spatial interdependencies of the waste generation; (3) harnessing principal component analysis to pinpoint critical determinants and preprocess these as inputs for the GTWR model; (4) mapping the GTWR outcomes to elucidate the differential impacts of various factors on the waste production patterns. Key findings reveal a distinctively polycentric MSW distribution, with high-density areas anchored in the urban core and diminishing intensities beyond the secondary periphery. The trio of socioeconomic variables, residents’ living standard variables, and natural variables emerge as pivotal, with the PCA-GTWR offering a vivid spatial delineation of their effects. Notably, socioeconomic growth exerts a pronounced positive influence in more affluent quarters, residential standards bear greater relevance in burgeoning urban sections than in the established core, and environmental influences wield the least sway, ebbing and flowing with the seasons. These insights demystify the undercurrents shaping the MSW production in urban China, serving as a strategic compass for waste minimization initiatives and policy formulation.

Assessing the social cost of municipal solid waste management in Beijing: A systematic life cycle analysis

The increased municipal solid waste generation poses ponderous pressure on the economy, environment, and public health. The current waste treatment process has multiple limitations. To inform policymakers on the best practices and feasibility, we develop a more comprehensive social costing model to assess the impacts of municipal solid waste management throughout its life cycle. The prominent findings show that the life cycle social cost of municipal solid waste in Beijing in 2021 is 12.4 billion yuan. Incineration has the highest social cost, totaling 10.172 billion yuan. The social cost per unit of waste incineration is 2,045 yuan/t, which is higher than that of landfill (1,288 yuan/t), composting (1,132 yuan/t), anaerobic digestion (1,057 yuan/t), and recyclables resource utilization (-344 yuan/t). The life cycle assessment results show that economic costs, including collection, transportation, and treatment costs, account for about 61%, and health loss costs account for about 37%. The scenario analysis suggests a significant potential for social cost savings from food waste and recyclables utilization. Ideally, a social cost reduction of almost 38% could be achieved. Error analysis examines the influence of variation in uncertain parameters on the evaluation results. This paper provides scientific strategies for optimal investment and decision-making on the comprehensive municipal solid waste management. These findings could provide an essential reference for policymakers and stakeholders in municipal solid waste management, replicated in different cities and other emerging economies.

Solid Waste Management Practice in Burdwan Municipality, West Bengal: An Overview

This study provides an overview of solid waste management practices in Burdwan Municipality and identifies sources of waste generation. The study primarily relies on both primary and secondary data collected from Burdwan Municipality. A prepared questionnaire was utilized during field studies conducted in the wards of Burdwan Municipality. Secondary data, available in the form of reports and documents from the year 2019, were also employed. Tabular presentations, flowcharts, pie charts, statistical tools, and techniques were used for the study. A flowchart model is employed to describe the current practices of solid waste management in Burdwan. Municipal solid waste is classified and identified based on waste characteristics. Biodegradable waste is the primary source of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation in Burdwan town. Commercial places generate more MSW than institutions, while the top contributors from residential premises are low-income group (LIG) households. This study observes a mismatch between MSW generation and available infrastructure, as well as poor management practices. MSW accumulates day by day, leading to environmental pollution. However, this issue could be resolved by adopting a reuse and recycle mechanism to convert waste into useful products.

Modeling, simulation and techno-economic evaluation of a micro-grid system based on steam gasification of organic municipal solid waste

The annual increase in population has led to rapid industrialization, urbanization, and economic growth over the years, becoming the lead cause of increased municipal solid waste (MSW) generation worldwide. In this study, MSW of 50 kg sampled by quartering method from Dandora dumpsite in Nairobi, Kenya is physically characterized and a sample of organic waste taken through proximate and ultimate analyses. Data obtained is used as input to a gasification model developed using advanced simulation and process engineering (Aspen) Plus software to provide characteristics of the yielded syngas. The obtained results are used to design a real gasification system and evaluate its techno-economic performance using HOMER® Pro as the tool for analysis. The techno-economic feasibility of the designed 60 kW gasification system is assessed considering a 165.59 kWh/day community-based load demand, with 11.5 % self-electricity consumption and 88.5 % grid feed. Results show organic and inorganic waste contents of 64.2 % and 35.8 %, respectively. The proximate and ultimate analyses reveal a high volatile matter content of 76.10 %, as well as fixed carbon content of 17.03 % in the biomass- rich-organic MSW. The simulated results show good agreement with experimental data and other simulation findings in literature. The study’s simulation output reveals 61.15 % H2, 1.42 % CH4, 24.12 % CO, 13.30 % CO2 contents following steam gasification at 700 °C. At 100 kg/h waste charge rate, a syngas yield of 2.39 m3/kg, gasification ratio of 2.2705 kg/kg and a lower heating value of 10,150 kJ/Nm3 (24.26 MJ/kg) are obtained. The sensitivity analysis results show increasing trend in CO2 and H2 syngas constituents from 0.4 to 1.0 steam-to-biomass ratio increase at 900 °C constant temperature: CO decrease is observed while CH4 values remain negligible and unaffected. The techno-economic findings reveal that the grid sales serve to offset the system’s annual costs by 39.34 %, obtaining a net present value (NPV) of $1.43 M, levelized cost of electricity (LCoE) of 0.155 $/kWh and 93.5 kg/yr. CO2 carbon footprint. An Organic MSW steam gasification micro grid is thus financially feasible in grid connected mode and is 99 % more carbon neutral compared to the Kenyan grid.

Insights into the urban municipal solid waste generation during the COVID-19 pandemic from machine learning analysis

Municipal solid waste (MSW) management has become an important issue for cities around the world. Waste generation prediction plays an important role in MSW management. It can provide strong support for decision-makers to optimize collection and treatment plans, formulate policies, and design long-term strategies for waste reduction. This study develops a district-level predictive approach for MSW generation using machine learning, with a case study for New York City. Commencing in 2020, the year of the pandemic's outbreak with an abnormal fluctuation in MSW generation, the prediction model exhibited a notable accuracy reduction compared to preceding years. In response to this challenge, we have identified and examined four proxy variables pertinent to the socio-economic repercussions of the pandemic and discerned that variables relating to residents' working status can ameliorate the model performance, both before and after the pandemic. We find that the area with the largest abnormality in MSW generation in 2020 is Manhattan and its vicinity. Given the pronounced prevalence of commercial land use in these localities, they warrant heightened scrutiny and strategic focus. It is imperative for policymakers and stakeholders to channel their efforts towards these specific regions and proactively formulate contingency strategies to facilitate expedited and efficacious responses.

Reciclacentros: a sustainable municipal solid waste management initiative in a Mexican city

Due to the increase in the generation of municipal solid waste and its impact on the environment and health, governments have been overburdened by its impact. Therefore, they have developed initiatives for waste disposal options in which citizens are involved. For that reason, this article aims to identify the population sector that participates in the separation of municipal solid waste and goes to the collection centers, as well as to characterize waste in three points known as Reciclacentros in the city of Hermosillo, Sonora. For this purpose, surveys were applied, selecting the respondents in a non-probabilistic way. In the characterization, the amount of waste received at each point was weighed. The data obtained were analyzed through a non-parametric Kruskal - Wallis test with 95% confidence (p<0.05). It was found that the people going to the Reciclacentros have an average monthly income of more than 30 thousand Mexican pesos, mostly young adult women between 25 and 44 years old, with the highest participation. In addition, the collection center identified as R3 presented a significantly higher difference in waste received with respect to the other collection centers in the period evaluated (23 t). Cardboard and paper, plastic, and glass are the most recovered waste in the city.

Optimized landfill site selection for municipal solid waste by integrating GIS and multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) technique, Hossana town, southern Ethiopia

Improper solid waste disposal has remained the major bottleneck for the socio-economic development particularly in urban and peri-urban areas of Ethiopia. This study was conducted with the prime aim of identifying an optimum municipal solid waste (MSW) management option subsequently selecting the best landfill site in Hossana town using integrated geographical information systems (GIS) and multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques. Accordingly, GIS integrated with MCDA was used to analyze the relative weight of each criterion and the overall suitability map where ten criteria were considered within their respective constraints. To create a landfill suitability index, environmental and socioeconomic factors such as distance from settlement, land use and land cover, lineament, slope, road, and wind direction/aspect were weighted. Population growth, waste generation rate, and waste volume/year were used to calculate the required landfill size. The study finding revealed that the town's MSW generation rate was 0.45 kg/cap/day, which was within the range of most of Ethiopian urban areas. On the other hand, the total daily and annual MSW generation was found to be 79.58 and 29,047 tonnes, respectively. Moreover, the study's findings revealed that 20.8 % of the solid waste was found was recyclable and the remaining 79.20 % was non-recyclable. Considering the future trend of waste generation, 19 ha of land in the city's Northern and Southern outskirts was chosen as a candidate landfill site with all the necessary suitability analysis. Therefore, optimized landfill site selection and better management system of MSW in urban and peri-urban areas could be achieved by the conjunctive application of MCDA and GIS.

Low-carbon municipal solid waste management using bio-based solutions and community participation: The case study of cultural tourism destination in Nan, Thailand

Tourism expansion has led to increased municipal solid waste (MSW) generation, which can exacerbate environmental and societal problems if proper waste management systems are not implemented. The study develops a framework for implementing bio-based solutions (BbS) for MSW management in a cultural tourism destination, using the walking street in Nan, Thailand, as a case study. Four low-carbon waste management scenarios were assessed, including increasing recycling rates (RE), using food waste as animal feed (BbS1), using bagasse containers as a soil conditioner (BbS2), and substituting single-use plastics with bamboo products (BbS3). Results showed that the BbS1 scenario had the highest performance in greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, reducing 66.3 t CO2e/year, followed by BbS2, RE, and BbS3 scenarios, which reduce GHG by about 12.3, 11, and 1 t CO2e/year, respectively. However, the BbS2 scenario has an additional benefit in returning around 84 kg N/year to the soil. Implementing the combination of RE, BbS1, BbS2, and BbS3 reduced waste to landfills by about 25.5 t MSW/year and reduced GHG emissions by 90.3 t CO2e/year. Enhancing residual waste management is recommended, which can lead to mitigation of about 164.3 t CO2e/year, or 83 % GHG emissions reduction compared to the base case.

Greenhouse gas emissions mitigation potential of municipal solid waste management: A case study of 13 prefecture-level cities in Jiangsu Province, China

Municipal solid waste (MSW) treatment is one of the main anthropogenic sources of greenhouse gases (GHGs). To mitigate the GHG emissions of the MSW sector, it is crucial to describe their emissions evolutions and mechanisms and propose localized mitigation measures on that basis. The logarithmic mean Divisia index model is used to identify the driving forces of MSW-related GHG emissions and explore the mitigation potential. Jiangsu, a typical province in China with 13 prefecture-level cities, is selected as the case study. The results showed that GHG emissions from Jiangsu's MSW treatment has increased by nearly 2.5 Mt in the last 20 years, as incineration replaces landfills. Economic development was the dominant positive driving force, and MSW generation intensity was the dominant negative driving force. Scenario analysis revealed that the carbon peak of MSW management could appear if MSW source separation and recycling (SSR) were implemented, reducing GHG accumulation emissions by approximately 0.3–0.4 Gt during 2022–2060. Referencing the SSR of the Shanghai pattern will generate the greatest mitigation potential of GHG emissions among the different scenario designs. Finally, policy recommendations for priority cities, consideration of population and economic factors, optimization of MSW treatment structures and improvements to SSR are proposed, which could help local- and national-level decision makers in China and other countries design policy guides to promote carbon neutrality, while simultaneously linking current research areas to waste management practices as well as promoting practices in environment and sustainability.