Forecasting and Cross-Correlation of Series on the Waste Generation, Population, GDP and Household Consumption Expenditures in Jordan

Abstract

The household waste is the biggest contributor to the total municipal solid waste generation. The main objective of the research is to discover the Jordanian economy in four dimensions: the household waste generation, the number of population, the gross domestic product (GDP) at purchasers’ prices, and the household final consumption expenditures. In the focus of interest are (1) finding adequate time series models for forecasting of the number of population, the GDP at purchasers’ prices, the household final consumption expenditures, and the household waste generation; (2) the cross-correlation between the household waste generation variable and other variables – population, GDP and household final consumption expenditures. The analysis of cross-correlation functions has revealed that pairs of series (waste/gdp, waste/consumption, waste/population) move in one direction with no shift in time of one series to the other. The relationship in every pair of series is significant. It is expected that in the short-run, ceteris paribus, with the growth of the population numbers, GDP and/or household consumption expenditures, the level of household waste generation in the country will also grow in a close relationship. Appropriate ARIMA models have been proposed to use for the short-run forecastsing of time series. The research outcomes are useful for policy makers to realize the scale of the household waste problem and to optimize capital expenditures into the waste management system of Jordan.