Sea Ice Research Articles

Projection of a winter ice-free Barents-Kara Sea by CMIP6 models with the CCHZ-DISO method

The winter sea ice over the Barents-Kara Sea (BKS) is reducing at an alarming rate, which impacts the Arctic shipping routes and the local ecosystems as well as the climate system across other regions. Consequently, it is imperative to project the winter ice-free state in this region to adequately prepare for future climate change and its impacts. However, most models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) show higher climatological values, weaker decreasing trends, and lower interannual variabilities in winter BKS sea ice concentration compared to observation. Additionally, it can be also seen that there exist great uncertainties in the projections of different models on whether the BKS region will be ice-free in future winters and the ice-free period, which spans almost the entire 21st century. Therefore, the study adopts two approaches developed from distance between indices of simulation and observation (DISO) method to project the winter ice-free period of the BKS under different emission scenarios. The results indicate that under SSP1–2.6, the winter BKS will not be ice-free by 2100. For SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5, the winter BKS is projected to be ice-free during 2076–2086, 2063–2068, and 2049–2061, respectively. By employing the DISO method, the projection uncertainty is reduced and the results highlight the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to delay the winter ice-free period over the BKS. These projections are intended to provide a reference for policymakers.

Analysis of Arctic Sea Ice Concentration Anomalies Using Spatiotemporal Clustering

The dynamic changes of sea ice exhibit spatial clustering, and this clustering has characteristics extending from its origin, through its development, and to its dissipation. Current research on sea ice change primarily focuses on spatiotemporal variation trends and remote correlation analysis, and lacks an analysis of spatiotemporal evolution characteristics. This study utilized monthly sea ice concentration (SIC) data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) for the period from 1979 to 2022, utilizing classical spatiotemporal clustering algorithms to analyze the clustering patterns and evolutionary characteristics of SIC anomalies in key Arctic regions. The results revealed that the central-western region of the Barents Sea was a critical area where SIC anomaly evolutionary behaviors were concentrated and persisted for longer durations. The relationship between the intensity and duration of SIC anomaly events was nonlinear. A positive correlation was observed for shorter durations, while a negative correlation was noted for longer durations. Anomalies predominantly occurred in December, with complex evolution happening in April and May of the following year, and concluded in July. Evolutionary state transitions mainly occurred in the Barents Sea. These transitions included shifts from the origin state in the northwestern margin to the dissipation state in the central-north Barents Sea, from the origin state in the central-north to the dissipation state in the central-south, and from the origin state in the northeastern to the dissipation state in the central-south Barents Sea and southeastern Kara Sea. Various evolutionary states were observed in the same area on the southwest edge of the Barents Sea. These findings provide insights into the evolutionary mechanism of sea ice anomalies.

Linking ship-associated emissions and resource development in the Arctic: Trends and predictions along the Northern Sea Route

Arctic ship traffic has increased significantly due to continuous sea ice loss and resource extraction. The shipping sector is an important contributor to atmospheric emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and sulphur dioxide (SO2), and an increase in ship activity will lead to significant increases in these emissions. However, there is a lack of studies linking ship activities and the associated emissions with recent Arctic resource development activities. This study aims to assess the relationship between sector-specific developments (fishing, tourism, trade, oil, gas, mining, and “others”) and ship traffic, and the associated emissions from 2013 to 2023 along the Northern Sea Route (NSR), using time series analysis and linear regression. In addition, the relationships were further used to predict future ship-associated emissions by 2030, utilizing a combination of regression models and Holt-Winters’ trend and seasonal forecast. Results showed a 61% increase in distance travelled, 115% increase in NOx emissions, and 68% increase in SO2 emissions from 2013 to 2023. A strong positive linear relationship between oil and gas production and the ship-associated emissions of NOx and SO2 was found, with a coefficient of determination as high as 0.97. The oil sector emerged as the largest contributor to emissions from 2017 onward. Projections indicate that NOx and SO2 emissions will be more than doubled, reaching 12,400 and 1200 tonnes, respectively, by 2030, of which the oil sector accounts for 45 and 61% of the total emissions. This highlights the need for further emissions reduction measures, especially with expanding Arctic oil projects, in order to mitigate the environmental impact of increased resource-driven shipping along the NSR.

Stable carbon isotopes in scallop shells: A proxy of Antarctic sea-ice persistence

Sea ice is fundamental to global climate and its multiannual persistence or seasonal absence shapes Antarctic marine ecosystems. With sea ice in rapid decline in the Southern Ocean, it is imperative to understand its variability prior to satellite data. The Antarctic scallop Adamussium colbecki has a broad geographic distribution and long fossil history in the Southern Ocean, and its shells could be ideal bioarchives for sea ice with the potential to resolve subannual sea-ice dynamics over multiple years or decades. Here, we evaluate stable isotopes of carbon in A. colbecki shells from two sites on western McMurdo Sound. Each site maintains stable, frigid seawater temperatures, but they differ in sea-ice duration. Explorers Cove has semi-permanent multiannual sea ice, whereas Bay of Sails has annual sea ice that breaks out every year. Our results indicate that seasonal variation in δ13Cshell values may proxy sea-ice persistence. Scallops living under annual sea ice — adults from Bay of Sails and juveniles collected during a fortuitous recent sea ice breakout at Explorers Cove — had higher δ13Cshell values during summer growth than winter growth. Scallops living under multi-annual sea ice had no difference in δ13Cshell values between winter and summer growth. We posit that phytoplankton blooms leverage the seasonal δ13C values of the dissolved inorganic carbon under ice-free conditions, which is in turn recorded in δ13Cshell values and that A. colbecki shells could be used to understand past variability in sea-ice persistence in coastal Antarctica.

The AutoICE Challenge

Abstract. Mapping sea ice in the Arctic is essential for maritime navigation, and growing vessel traffic highlights the necessity of the timeliness and accuracy of sea ice charts. In addition, with the increased availability of satellite imagery, automation is becoming more important. The AutoICE Challenge investigates the possibility of creating deep learning models capable of mapping multiple sea ice parameters automatically from spaceborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery and assesses the current state of the automatic-sea-ice-mapping scientific field. This was achieved by providing the tools and encouraging participants to adopt the paradigm of retrieving multiple sea ice parameters rather than the current focus on single sea ice parameters, such as concentration. The paper documents the efforts and analyses, compares, and discusses the performance of the top-five participants’ submissions. Participants were tasked with the development of machine learning algorithms mapping the total sea ice concentration, stage of development, and floe size using a state-of-the-art sea ice dataset with dual-polarised Sentinel-1 SAR images and 22 other relevant variables while using professionally labelled sea ice charts from multiple national ice services as reference data. The challenge had 129 teams representing a total of 179 participants, with 34 teams delivering 494 submissions, resulting in a participation rate of 26.4 %, and it was won by a team from the University of Waterloo. Participants were successful in training models capable of retrieving multiple sea ice parameters with convolutional neural networks and vision transformer models. The top participants scored best on the total sea ice concentration and stage of development, while the floe size was more difficult. Furthermore, participants offered intriguing approaches and ideas that could help propel future research within automatic sea ice mapping, such as applying high downsampling of SAR data to improve model efficiency and produce better results.

Ocean processes south of the Drygalski Ice Tongue, western Ross Sea

We describe the first year-long hydrographic mooring timeseries from a location just to the south of the Drygalski Ice Tongue – the ice margin that forms the southern boundary of the Terra Nova Bay Polynya in the western Ross Sea. The region is where any northward flowing component of the Victoria Land Coastal Current encounters the ice tongue and supports an occasional polynya. The hydrographic mooring was deployed nearby Geikie Inlet from February 2017 through to March 2018, and was coupled with several contemporaneous oceanographic moorings to the north of the Drygalski Ice Tongue. This provides data with which to examine the water column dynamics in the context of local circulation and interaction with the ice tongue. The Terra Nova Bay region is subject to strong katabatic winds, however the polynya to the south of the Drygalski Ice Tongue operates at different times through the annual cycle when compared to the Terra Nova Bay Polynya to the north, as the sea ice in the south-side region is far more constrained in its motion yet, temperature and salinity are broadly consistent north and south of the ice tongue. Sub-surface Ice Shelf Water is observed south of the ice tongue. Transients in near-bed temperature and salinity are observed on both sides of the ice tongue, albeit with the northside leading by ∼8–9 days. Notably, the temperature transient precedes that of salinity by around 40 days. This suggests that, at this near-coastal position, the circulation beneath the ice tongue is primarily southward.

The out‐of‐phase pattern of summer precipitation over northern China and the possible mechanisms

AbstractThis study explored the interannual characteristics of the out‐of‐phase pattern of summer precipitation over northern China during the past years, as well as the possible underlying mechanisms. The out‐of‐phase pattern is characterized by the positive precipitation anomaly in Northwest China (NWC) and the negative anomaly in North China (NC). Our analyses indicate that the variation of Asian westerly jet (AWJ) is found evidently associated with this out‐of‐phase pattern of summer precipitation. The meridional displacement of AWJ induces opposite trends in water vapour transport and circulation anomalies between NWC and NC, leading to the out‐of‐phase pattern. Further analyses suggest that the anomalies of Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC), North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) can impact the variation of AWJ by triggering the Eurasian (EU), polar‐Eurasia (POL) and Pacific‐Japan (PJ) teleconnection patterns, respectively, which in turn modulate the formation of this pattern. The precipitation in NWC is primarily affected by the North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific SST anomalies, whereas the precipitation in NC is notably influenced by both SST anomalies and the Arctic SIC anomaly. However, the role of SST anomalies on precipitation in NWC and NC exhibits an evident contrast, leading to the out‐of‐phase pattern of summer precipitation.

Research on ship navigation strategy in dynamic sea ice environments based on flexibility velocity obstacles algorithm

Sea ice constitutes one of the primary risks in Arctic navigation. Currently, how to maneuver a ship within a sea ice environment relies predominantly on the experience of the pilot. In this paper, based on satellite image data and an improved sea ice target matching approach, a dynamic ship navigation environment within the sea ice zone is established. Subsequently, we developed a sea ice collision risk index (ICRI), which takes into account the relative motion relationship between the sea ice and the ship as well as the sea ice area parameter. Finally, a flexible velocity obstacle (FVO) algorithm is proposed by the Arctic ice navigation proposal, enabling the optimization of ship routes and preventing ships from passing through the central region of large floating ice. The results show that the method proposed in this paper successfully constructs the navigation environment model in the drifting ice region, and can provide real-time maneuvering guidance for ships, effectively reduce the risk of sea ice collision, and optimize the navigation path planning in the ice region. It can improve the safety and pre-planning efficiency of ship navigation in the ice region.

Influence of sea ice on ship routes and speed along the Arctic Northeast Passage

The accelerated melting of sea ice and the growing influx of ships in the Arctic pose significant challenges to navigational safety and the resilient development of the Arctic routes. This study aims to explore the influence of sea ice on ship routes and speed by analyzing the spatiotemporal correlation of Sea Ice Concentration (SIC), Sea Ice Thickness (SIT), Sea Ice Volume (SIV), and Automatic Identification System (AIS) data along the Northeast Passage (NEP) in 2022. Our findings indicate that during the navigation window period (July–October), 115 ships traversed the NEP. It was observed that ships preferred navigating at speeds ranging from 6kn to 14kn when the SIC was below 10% and the SIT was less than 0.1m. Compared with cargo ships and tankers, the trajectory and speed distributions of other ships show greater differences under the influence of sea ice. Furthermore, our results suggest that the SIV, compared to the SIC and SIT, could better reflect the influence of sea ice on ship navigation. These insights are crucial for developing management strategies in Arctic routes.

Analysis of the Role of Aquatic Gases in the Formation of Sea-Ice Porosity

The porosity of freshwater ice and sea ice is one of the main parameters that determine their strength. The strength of ice varies over a wide range of values, and the differences in the intensity of the mechanisms of ice porosity formation in different water areas can be one of the possible reasons for these variations. The water mass contains gases in two forms: gases dissolved in the water mass, as well as gas bubbles that are formed when wind waves break up, and bubbles that float up from the seabed. This article presents the results of an analysis of the role of each of these forms in the formation of gas inclusions (pores) in the crystal structure of ice. The results showed that the main source of gas pores in ice crystals is the gas bubbles coming to the surface from the bottom, formed during the decomposition of bottom sediments or during gas leaks from near-bottom oil and gas fields. The possibility of gas bubbles occurring and rising to the ice–water boundary depends on the presence of bottom sources of the gases, the intensity of dissolution of the bubbles and the depth of the water area. Therefore, the variation in the porosity and the strength of ice over the space of the water areas can be associated with the changes in their depths, and the presence and location of the natural gas sources.

Characterisation of the ringed seal (Pusa hispida) acoustic repertoire during spring in the Western Canadian Arctic

ABSTRACT Understanding the acoustic repertoire of a species is crucial for comprehending its ecology and can also provide a valuable tool in the analysis of passive acoustic monitoring data. Despite being the most abundant seal species in the Arctic, the call repertoire of ringed seals (Pusa hispida) remains poorly studied. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive and quantitative description of the calls produced by ringed seals. Data collection occurred in May 2022 near Ulukhaktok in the Western Canadian Arctic. Acoustic recorders were deployed in cracks in the sea ice that were regularly used by ringed seals as haul-out areas. All calls were counted and classified into one of three categories: yelps, barks and growls. High-quality calls were further analysed with ten acoustic parameters calculated for each signal. Cluster and classification and regression tree (CART) analyses were used to assess if the visual classification of calls was supported by the acoustic parameters calculated. The cluster and CART analyses affirmed the presence of all three distinct call types in the ringed seal acoustic repertoire. Classification of unseen calls using the CART model demonstrated an accuracy of 98%. The findings presented here serve as foundational information on the acoustic repertoire of ringed seals.

Photoperiodic dependent regulation of photosynthesis in the polar diatom Fragilariopsis cylindrus

Introduction: Polar microalgae are exposed to dramatic seasonal changes in light availability, from continuous summer days to winter nights with rapid changes of the daylength in spring and fall. Under this challenging light climate, large diatoms spring blooms occur at the bottom sea-ice and underneath the icepack, accounting for a significant proportion of the annual marine primary production in the Arctic Ocean. The on-going earlier melt down of the snow and ice covers result in a stronger light penetration and consequent increase in irradiance at the bottom of the sea ice leading to earlier seasonal sea-ice diatom blooms under shorter daylengths. Therefore, elucidating the response of polar diatoms to different photoperiods will help to better understand the consequences of the changing arctic climate on their photosynthetic productivity.Methods: In this study, we characterized the response of F. cylindrus, a model polar diatom, across five different photoperiods with similar light and temperature conditions (30 μmol photons m-2 s-1 and 0°C respectively).Results: We report different photoacclimative strategies under shorter and longer daylengths, with the special case of prolonged darkness (mimicking winter polar night). We also observed a repeated daily regulation of the photochemistry and photoprotection parameters when cells were exposed to a light:darkness alternation, despite the constant and optimal light intensity during the light periods.Discussion: Our results highlight the ability of F. cylindrus to grow efficiently under a wide range of daylengths, finely adjusting the balance between photochemistry and photoprotection to make the best use of the available light, supporting sustained production and growth despite low light and temperature.

Weichselian–Holocene glacial history of the Sjuøyane archipelago, northern Svalbard

The Sjuøyane archipelago is the northernmost land area of Svalbard; thus, it provides a window to study the terrestrial glacial history and dynamics of the Svalbard–Barents Sea Ice Sheet and complement marine geological studies in the region. To reconstruct the glacial history of Sjuøyane, we describe coastal sedimentary sections in Quaternary sediments and constrain their chronology by radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence ages. Erratic boulders and bedrock are sampled for 10Be cosmogenic exposure dating, aiming to determine the deglaciation age and exposure history. Holocene environments are studied based on lake sediments and emerging vegetation from retreating snow patches. The sedimentary sections largely consist of shallow (glacio‐)marine and/or littoral sediments deposited during high relative sea levels. The radiocarbon and luminescence ages suggest they formed during a Middle Weichselian interstadial and after the Late Weichselian glaciation. A wave‐washed bedrock erosional notch and rounded boulders at 36±1 m a.h.t. most likely formed during this interstadial. Most of the cosmogenic 10Be ages are older than the last deglaciation, likely indicating a complex exposure history. One boulder sample suggests that the lowlands were deglaciated 14.7±1.82 ka ago, and two boulder samples with ages of 18.94±3.26 and 22.89±4.05 ka suggest that the highlands were possibly ice‐free at this time. The lake sediments from Isvatnet, Phippsøya, consist of glaciolacustrine silt and clay overlain by gyttja. The gyttja has accumulated at least since 7.0 cal. ka BP. Two radiocarbon ages from emerging vegetation suggest Neoglacial cooling since 3.8 cal. ka BP. A patchy glacial drift at the surface of Sjuøyane and well‐preserved pre‐Late Weichselian sediments suggest that the Late Weichselian glaciation was non‐erosive and/or cold‐based at this part of the north margin of the Svalbard–Barents Sea Ice Sheet.

A regional analysis of climate change effects on global snow crab fishery

AbstractThe snow crab fishery faces increasing vulnerability to environmental factors, yet the literature on the relationship between climate change and snow crab harvest remains limited. This study estimates snow crab harvest functions using climate change indicators with unbalanced panel data of snow crab production from the eastern Bering Sea (Alaska), the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (Canada), the Sea of Japan, and the Barents Sea (Norway‐Russia). The relationship between snow crab biomass, stock, and catch is analyzed and the endogeneity of stock in the harvest function is also addressed using climate change indicators as instrumental variables (IVs). The results show that the extent of Arctic sea ice is effective in addressing the endogeneity, and the random effects IV model with error components two stage least squares estimator performs the best to control heterogeneity. A 1% increase in snow crab fishing effort is associated with a 0.42% increase in snow crab harvest, and a 1% increase in snow crab stock causes a 0.98% increase in snow crab harvest. The reported estimates indicate a large stock‐harvest elasticity and provide supporting evidence to prioritize stock enhancement in snow crab fishery policy designs to maintain stocks at sustainable levels and minimize government expenditures on subsidies.Recommendations This study explores how snow crab harvests are influenced by snow crab populations and fishing efforts in the context of global warming across various global regions, including the Bering Sea, the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Sea of Japan, and the Barents Sea. A 1% increase in fishing effort is associated with a 0.42% increase in harvest, while a 1% increase in snow crab population leads to a 0.98% increase in harvest, showing a high dependency on snow crab biomass. Arctic sea ice extent is identified as a crucial climate factor affecting snow crab biomass and harvests, making it a valuable variable for understanding and managing snow crab populations. The study supports the prioritization of stock enhancement policies by fishery agencies and suggests standardizing how fishing effort is measured across different regions to improve snow crab fishery management and future research.

Synergistic atmosphere-ocean-ice influences have driven the 2023 all-time Antarctic sea-ice record low

Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) reached a new record low in February 2023. Here we examine the evolution of the coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice system during the 12 months preceding the record. The impact of preceding conditions is assessed with observations, reanalyses, and output from the regional ocean-sea ice coupled model NEMO3.6-LIM3. We find that the 2022-2023 sea ice annual cycle was characterized by consistently low SIE throughout the year, anomalously rapid sea ice retreat in December 2022, and nearly circumpolar negative SIE anomalies in February 2023. While advection-induced positive air temperature anomalies inhibited the sea ice growth in most regions, strong southerly winds in the Amundsen-Ross Sea caused by an anomalously deep Amundsen Sea Low in spring transported notable volumes of sea ice northward, triggering an unusually active ice-albedo feedback onshore and favoring accelerated melt towards the minimum. This study highlights the impacts of multifactorial processes during the preceding seasons to explain the recent summer sea ice minima.

Navigating climate complexity and its control via hyperchaotic dynamics in a 4D Caputo fractional model

This interdisciplinary study critically analyzes current research, establishing a profound connection between sea water, sea ice, sea temperature, and surface temperature through a 4D hyperchaotic Caputo fractional differential equation. Emphasizing the collective impact on climate, focusing on challenges from anthropogenic global warming, the study scrutinizes theoretical aspects, including existence and uniqueness. Two sliding mode controllers manage chaos in this 4D fractional system, assessed amid uncertainties and disruptions. The global stability of these controlled systems is also confirmed, considering both commensurate and non-commensurate 4D fractional order. To demonstrate the intricate chaotic motion within the system, we employ the Lyapunov exponent and Poincare sections. Numerical simulations are conducted by using the predictor-corrector method. The effects of surface temperature on chaotic dynamics are discussed. The crucial role of sea ice reflection in climate stability is highlighted in two scenarios. Correlation graphs, comparing model and observational data using the predictor-corrector method, enhance the proposed 4D hyperchaotic model’s credibility. Subsequently, numerical simulations validate theoretical assertions about the controllers’ influence. These controllers indicate which variable significantly contributes to controlling the chaos.

Significant contribution of internal variability to recent Barents–Kara sea ice loss in winter

The Arctic has experienced a rapid sea ice loss in the Barents and Kara Seas in winter over the satellite era. Such sea ice loss has been modulated by anthropogenic forcing and internal variability, but a precise estimate of their relative contribution remains unclear. Here, using large ensemble simulations and machine-learning techniques, we successfully reproduce wintertime Barents-Kara sea ice trends as the joint impact of anthropogenic and internal variability components. Over the whole satellite period, anthropogenic forcing contributes about 70% to the Barents-Kara sea ice loss, with internal variability contributing to the remainder. However, internal variability is more important in explaining varying sea ice trends over shorter periods (~20 years), including the accelerated sea ice loss up to 2017, consistent with an extreme, unforced atmospheric circulation dipole trend in the Euro-Atlantic sector. Overall, this study highlights that internal variability plays a more important role in shaping recent winter Arctic sea ice loss than previously thought, and has implications for Arctic sea ice projections and the use of machine learning methods in future attribution studies.

Climate change is associated with higher phytoplankton biomass and longer blooms in the West Antarctic Peninsula

The Antarctic Peninsula (West Antarctica) marine ecosystem has undergone substantial changes due to climate-induced shifts in atmospheric and oceanic temperatures since the 1950s. Using 25 years of satellite data (1998-2022), this study presents evidence that phytoplankton biomass and bloom phenology in the West Antarctic Peninsula are significantly changing as a response to anthropogenic climate change. Enhanced phytoplankton biomass was observed along the West Antarctic Peninsula, particularly in the early austral autumn, resulting in longer blooms. Long-term sea ice decline was identified as the main driver enabling phytoplankton growth in early spring and autumn, in parallel with a recent intensification of the Southern Annular Mode (2010-ongoing), which was observed to influence regional variability. Our findings contribute to the understanding of the complex interplay between environmental changes and phytoplankton responses in this climatically key region of the Southern Ocean and raise important questions regarding the far-reaching consequences that these ecological changes may have on global carbon sequestration and Antarctic food webs in the future.

Future scenarios of commercial freight shipping in the Euro-Asian Arctic

As climate warms and modern technologies advance, the Artic waters may offer new opportunities for shipping, notably in the Euro-Asian Arctic. This paper presents five alternative scenarios for commercial destination and transit shipping in the region until 2050. Using a pluralistic backcasting approach to foresight, these scenarios were co-created by the authors of this paper together with thirteen experts in relevant fields from seven different countries. The scenario-building exercise integrated global and regional factors and demonstrated that the future of commercial shipping in the Arctic is subject to vast uncertainties in global politics and global development trajectory alongside the sea ice conditions and technological progress. While the current volumes of commercial shipping in the Euro-Asian Arctic are insignificant, its future will largely depend on the development of these factors and how they will interface with each other. Plausible futures of commercial shipping in the region range from extensive international transit shipping through the Northern Sea Route to restricted shipping by vessels with Arctic flags only or even no shipping, to shipping over the transpolar route. The scenarios presented here can be used to inform national policymaking as well as to support strategic decision-making within corporate entities operating in related industries.

Mid-Pleistocene climate transition triggered by Antarctic Ice Sheet growth.

Despite extensive investigation, the nature and causes of the Mid-Pleistocene Transition remain enigmatic. In this work, we assess its linkage to asynchronous development of bipolar ice sheets by synthesizing Pleistocene mid- to high-latitude proxy records linked to hemispheric ice sheet evolution. Our results indicate substantial growth of the Antarctic Ice Sheets (AISs) at 2.0 to 1.25 million years ago, preceding the rapid expansion of Northern Hemisphere Ice Sheets after ~1.25 million years ago. Proxy-model comparisons suggest that AIS and associated Southern Ocean sea ice expansion can induce northern high-latitude cooling and enhanced moisture transport to the Northern Hemisphere, thus triggering the Mid-Pleistocene Transition. The dynamic processes involved are crucial for assessing modern global warming that is already inducing asynchronous bipolar melting of ice sheets.