Synergistic atmosphere-ocean-ice influences have driven the 2023 all-time Antarctic sea-ice record low

Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) reached a new record low of 1.79 million km2 on 21 February 2023, 38% lower than the climatological average. In this study, we trace this record back to its possible origins by providing a detailed view on the evolution of the coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice system during the 12 months that preceded the event (March 2022 to February 2023). The impact of preceding winter and spring conditions on the summer minimum is assessed with the help of observations, reanalyses, and output from a regional ocean-sea ice coupled model NEMO3.6-LIM3. We find that the 2022-2023 annual cycle was characterized by consistently low SIE values throughout the year preceding the record, by anomalously high SIE melting rates in December 2022, and by circumpolar negative SIE anomalies in almost all basins of the Southern Ocean in February 2023. Through autumn and winter (March to August 2022), advection-induced positive air temperature anomalies inhibited the development of sea ice in the Weddell and Bellingshausen Seas, which preconditioned an ice-free state in the Bellingshausen Sea as early as October 2022. Concurrently, strong southerly winds in the Eastern Ross Sea caused by an anomalously deep Amundsen Sea Low in spring (September to November) transported significant volumes of sea ice northward, contributing to severe melting offshore in December and, through increased divergence near the coast, triggered the ice-albedo feedback onshore. As a consequence, a coastal polynya appeared in the western part of the Amundsen Sea due to stronger surface sea ice melting. This ice-albedo feedback was unusually active in late 2022 and favored accelerated melt towards the minimum in February 2023. This study highlights the impacts of multifactorial processes during the preceding seasons to explain the recent summer sea ice minima.

Quantitative estimates of the relationship between interannual variations in the extent of Antarctic and Arctic sea ice and changes in the surface air temperature in the Northern and Southern hemispheres are obtained using satellite, ground-based, and reanalysis data for the past four decades (1980–2019). It is shown that the previously noted general increase in the extent of Antarctic sea ice observed until recent years from satellite data (available only since the late 1970s) over the background global warming and a rapid decrease in the extent of Arctic sea ice is associated with a regional decrease in the surface temperature at Antarctic latitudes from the end of the 1970s. This is a result of regional manifestation of natural climate variations with periods of up to several decades against the background of global secular warming with a relatively weak temperature trend over the ocean in the Southern Hemisphere. Since 2016, a sharp decrease in the extent of Antarctic sea ice in the Southern Ocean has been observed. The results of the correlation and cross-wavelet analysis indicate significant coherence and negative correlation with the surface temperature of the extent of sea ice in recent decades, not only in the Arctic, but also in the Antarctic.

Abstract. Antarctic sea ice cover has shown a slight increase (<1%/decade) in overall observed ice extent as derived from satellite mapping from 1979 to 2008, contrary to the decline observed in the Arctic regions. Spatial and temporal variations of the Antarctic sea ice however remain a significant problem to monitor and understand, primarily due to the vastness and remoteness of the region. While satellite remote sensing has provided and has great future potential to monitor the variations and changes of sea ice, uncertainties remain unresolved. In this study, the National Ice Center (NIC) ice edge and the AMSR-E (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System) ice extent are examined, while the ASPeCt (Antarctic Sea Ice Process and Climate) ship observations from the Oden expedition in December 2006 are used as ground truth to verify the two products during Antarctic summer. While there is a general linear trend between ASPeCt and AMSR-E ice concentration estimates, there is poor correlation (R2=0.41) and AMSR-E tends to underestimate the low ice concentrations. We also found that the NIC sea ice edge agrees well with ship observations, while the AMSR-E shows the ice edge further south, consistent with its poorer detection of low ice concentrations. The northward extent of the ice edge at the time of observation (NIC) had mean values varying from 38 km to 102 km greater on different days for the area as compared with the AMSR-E sea ice extent. For the circumpolar area as a whole in the December period examined, AMSR-E therefore may underestimate the area inside the ice edge at this time by up to 14% or, 1.5 million km2 less area, compared to the NIC ice charts. Preliminary comparison of satellite scatterometer data however, suggests better resolution of low concentrations than passive microwave, and therefore better agreement with ship observations and NIC charts of the area inside the ice edge during Antarctic summer. A reanalysis data set for Antarctic sea ice extent that relies on the decade long scatterometer and high resolution satellite data set, instead of passive microwave, may therefore give better fidelity for the recent sea ice climatology.

Antarctic sea ice, a key component in the complex Antarctic climate system, is an important driver and indicator of the global climate. In the relatively short satellite‐observed period from 1979 to 2022 the sea ice extent has continuously increased (contrasting a major decrease in Arctic sea ice) up to a dramatic decrease between 2014 and 2017. Recent years have seen record sea ice lows in February 2022–February 2023. We use a statistical ensemble reconstruction of Antarctic sea ice to put the observed changes into the historical context of the entire 20th century. We propose a seasonal Vector Auto‐Regressive Moving Average (VARMA) model fit in a Bayesian framework using regularized horseshoe priors on the regression coefficients to create a stochastic ensemble reconstruction of monthly Antarctic Sea ice extent from 1900 to 1979. This novel model produces a set of 2,500 plausible sea ice extent reconstructions for the sea ice by sector that incorporate the autocorrelation structure of sea ice over time as well as the dependence of sea ice between the sectors. These fully observed reconstructions exhibit plausible month‐to‐month changes in reconstructed sea ice as well as plausible interactions between the sectors and the total. We reconstruct an overall higher sea ice extent earlier in the 20th century with a relatively sharp decline in the 1970s. These trends agree well with previous reconstructions of Antarctic sea ice based on ice core data, whaling locations, and climatological data, as well as early satellite observations in the reconstruction period.

<p>Despite ongoing global warming and strong sea ice decline in the Arctic, the sea ice extent around the Antarctic continent has not declined during the satellite era since 1979. This is in stark contrast to existing climate models that tend to show a strong negative sea ice trend for the same period; hence the confidence in projected Antarctic sea-ice changes is considered to be low. In the years since 2016, there has been significantly lower Antarctic sea ice extent, which some consider a sign of imminent change; however, others have argued that sea ice extent is expected to regress to the weak decadal trend in the near future.</p><p>In this presentation, we show results from climate change projections with a new climate model that allows the simulation of mesoscale eddies in dynamically active ocean regions in a computationally efficient way. We find that the high-resolution configuration (HR) favours periods of stable Antarctic sea ice extent in September as observed over the satellite era. Sea ice is not projected to decline well into the 21<sup>st</sup> century in the HR simulations, which is similar to the delaying effect of, e.g., added glacial melt water in recent studies. The HR ocean configurations simulate an ocean heat transport that responds differently to global warming and is more efficient at moderating the anthropogenic warming of the Southern Ocean. As a consequence, decrease of Antarctic sea ice extent is significantly delayed, in contrast to what existing coarser-resolution climate models predict.</p><p>Other explanations why current models simulate a non-observed decline of Antarctic sea-ice have been put forward, including the choice of included sea ice physics and underestimated simulated trends in westerly winds. Our results provide an alternative mechanism that might be strong enough to explain the gap between modeled and observed trends alone.</p>

The year 2023 marked a turning point for the Antarctic region as the Southern Hemisphere experienced a significant reduction in its sea ice extent, with a record-breaking sea ice minimum in July 2023 of approximately 2.4 million square kilometers below the long-term average. This study highlights the drivers behind this exceptional event by combining observational, satellite, and reanalysis data, with a special focus on the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Throughout the year, the Antarctic Sea ice extent broke record after record, ranking as the lowest sea ice on record from January to October, except for March and April. The exceptionally low sea ice extent from May to August was mainly driven by the prevalence of a zonal wave number 3 pattern, characterized by alternating surface high- and low-pressure systems, which favored the advection of heat and moisture, especially over the Ross Sea (RS), Weddell Sea (WS), and Indian Ocean (IO). The anomalous large-scale circulation was accompanied by record-high sea surface and subsurface temperatures over the regions with reduced sea ice extent. In addition to the air and ocean temperature, record-breaking heat, moisture, and sensible heat fluxes have been observed, especially over the WS, RS, and IO, which further amplified the reduction in the sea ice extent over these areas. Notably, over the Weddell Sea, we observed air temperature anomalies reaching up to 8°C and sea surface temperature anomalies of up to 3°C from May to July. Similar temperature anomalies were recorded over the Ross Sea, particularly in July and August. A change point analysis indicates that a regime shift in the Antarctic Sea ice, as well as in the average mean air temperature and (sub)surface ocean temperature over the Weddell Sea, started around 2015. The low sea ice extent in Antarctica in 2023 was a stark reminder of the ongoing changes in the polar regions. Thus, understanding the underlying mechanisms of these extreme events provides crucial insights into the changing dynamics of Antarctic Sea ice and its broader climatic significance.

<p>Quantitative estimates of the relationship between the interannual variability of Antarctic and Arctic sea ice and changes in the surface temperature in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres using satellitedata, observational data and reanalysis data for the last four decades (1980-2019) are obtained. The previously noted general increase in the Antarctic sea ice extent (up to 2016) (according to satellite data available only since the late 1970s), happening simultaneously with global warming and rapid decrease in the Arctic sea ice extent, is associated with the regional manifestation of natural climate fluctuations with periods of up to several decades. The results of correlation and crosswavelet analysis indicate significant coherence and negative correlation of hemispheric surface temperature with not only Arctic,but also Antarctic sea ice extent in recent decades.</p><p>Seasonal and regional peculiarities of snow cover sensitivity to temperature regime changes in the Northern Hemisphere are noted with an assessment of changes in recent decades. Peculiarities of snow cover variability in Eurasia and North America are presented. In particular, the peculiarities of changes in snow cover during the autumn seasons are noted.</p>

Abstract. Over the past 3 decades, discordant trends in sea ice extent have been observed between the Arctic and Antarctic regions. Arctic sea ice extent has been characterised by a rapid decline, whereas Antarctic sea ice extent, while highly variable interannually, has tended to increase. Climate models have so far failed to capture these trends. Coupled with the limited pre-1970 sea ice dataset, this poses a significant challenge to quantifying the mechanisms responsible for driving such trends. However, historical records from early Antarctic expeditions contain a wealth of information regarding the nature and concentration of sea ice. Such records have been underutilised, and their analysis may enhance our understanding of recent Antarctic sea ice variability. For the purpose of this study, nine records from eight Antarctic expeditions have been examined. Summer sea ice positions recorded during 1820–1843 have been compared to satellite observations from 1987–2017, as well as historical data for the period 1897–1917. Through analysis of these three time series, estimates for the northern limits of summer sea ice in the Weddell Sea during the early 19th century have been produced. The key findings of this study indicate a 19th century average core summer northernmost sea ice latitude in much of the Weddell Sea that was further north than during the modern era, with 19th century February having significantly more sea ice by all measures. However, late summer sea ice was most extensive in the early years of the 20th century.

Despite the increase in global mean temperature and massive sea ice loss in the Arctic, the Antarctic sea ice extent has not changed significantly throughout reliable satellite records starting in 1979. Long-term trends rather show an increase in the Antarctic sea ice area, resulting in record high anomalies in 2014 and 2015. However, after the moderate expansion in the sea ice extent, a sharp decline occurred in 2016 and has remained low since then. The record Antarctic sea ice loss in recent years may be a sign the region has entered a new regime of low sea ice coverage in a warming world. Meanwhile, Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), driving the lower limb of the global meridional overturning circulation and ventilating the abyssal ocean interior has warmed and freshened in recent decades, leading to a decrease in AABW formation. Ross Sea shelf water which is responsible for 20–40% of the total AABW production, has experienced the largest freshening. However, repeat hydrographic data have shown that since the mid-2010s the salinity of Ross Sea shelf water has sharply rebounded from the multidecadal freshening trend. Here, it is interesting that the abrupt transition from a high to low state of Antarctic sea ice since the mid-2010s coincides with the onset of the salinity rebound of dense shelf water on the Antarctic continental shelf.As the planet warms global sea ice has continued to get a lot of attention due to the substantial implications for planetary albedo, ice sheet and ice shelf stability, atmosphere-ocean interactions, cryosphere ecosystems, biogeochemical cycle, and the Southern Ocean freshwater cycle. Particularly, sea ice’s growth and melting play an important role in water mass transformations. Here, we investigate how the rapid decline in the Antarctic sea ice in recent years has contributed to the rebound of shelf water salinity in the Ross Sea, using satellite observations of sea ice, as well as oceanic and atmospheric reanalysis data. Our result shows that despite the rapid decrease in the Antarctic sea ice in recent years, the sea ice formation rate in the Ross Sea continental shelf has increased. During the salinification period since the mid-2010s, local anomalous winds and surface heat flux associated with the remote and large-scale forcing that drive the recent change in the Antarctic sea ice, induced the reduced sea ice cover and larger polynya area on the Ross Sea continental shelf, increasing sea ice formation rate. Furthermore, data-based sea ice budget analysis indicates that due to the anomalous wind forcing, the sea ice has moved to the outer shelf through dynamic processes such as advection and divergence, creating a sustained favorable environment for sea ice formation and brine rejection.

<strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor">Abstract.</strong> Over the past three decades, discordant trends in sea ice extent have been observed between the Arctic and Antarctic regions. Arctic sea ice extent has been characterised by a rapid decline, whereas Antarctic sea ice extent, while highly variable inter-annually, has tended to increase. Climate models have so far failed to capture these trends. Coupled with the limited pre-1970 sea ice dataset, this poses a significant challenge to quantifying the mechanisms responsible for driving such trends. However, historical records from early Antarctic expeditions contain a wealth of information regarding the nature and concentration of sea ice. Such records have been under-utilised, and their analysis may enhance our understanding of recent Antarctic sea ice variability. For the purpose of this study, 9 records from 8 Antarctic expeditions have been examined. Summer sea ice positions recorded during 1820&ndash;1843 have been compared to satellite observations from 1987&ndash;2017, as well as historical data for the period 1897&ndash;1917. Through analysis of these three time series, estimations for summer sea ice extent in the Weddell Sea, during the early nineteenth century have been produced. The key findings of this study indicate a nineteenth century average core summer northernmost sea ice latitude in much of the Weddell Sea that was further north than during the modern era, with nineteenth century February having significantly more sea ice by all measures. However, late summer sea ice was most extensive in the early years of the twentieth century.

<strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor">Abstract.</strong> Over the past three decades, discordant trends in sea ice extent have been observed between the Arctic and Antarctic regions. Arctic sea ice extent has been characterised by a rapid decline, whereas Antarctic sea ice extent, while highly variable inter-annually, has tended to increase. Climate models have so far failed to capture these trends. Coupled with the limited pre-1970 sea ice dataset, this poses a significant challenge to quantifying the mechanisms responsible for driving such trends. However, historical records from early Antarctic expeditions contain a wealth of information regarding the nature and concentration of sea ice. Such records have been under-utilised, and their analysis may enhance our understanding of recent Antarctic sea ice variability. For the purpose of this study, 9 records from 8 Antarctic expeditions have been examined. Summer sea ice positions recorded during 1820&ndash;1843 have been compared to satellite observations from 1987&ndash;2017, as well as historical data for the period 1897&ndash;1917. Through analysis of these three time series, estimations for summer sea ice extent in the Weddell Sea, during the early nineteenth century have been produced. The key findings of this study indicate a nineteenth century average core summer northernmost sea ice latitude in much of the Weddell Sea that was further north than during the modern era, with nineteenth century February having significantly more sea ice by all measures. However, late summer sea ice was most extensive in the early years of the twentieth century.

<strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor">Abstract.</strong> Over the past three decades, discordant trends in sea ice extent have been observed between the Arctic and Antarctic regions. Arctic sea ice extent has been characterised by a rapid decline, whereas Antarctic sea ice extent, while highly variable inter-annually, has tended to increase. Climate models have so far failed to capture these trends. Coupled with the limited pre-1970 sea ice dataset, this poses a significant challenge to quantifying the mechanisms responsible for driving such trends. However, historical records from early Antarctic expeditions contain a wealth of information regarding the nature and concentration of sea ice. Such records have been under-utilised, and their analysis may enhance our understanding of recent Antarctic sea ice variability. For the purpose of this study, 9 records from 8 Antarctic expeditions have been examined. Summer sea ice positions recorded during 1820&ndash;1843 have been compared to satellite observations from 1987&ndash;2017, as well as historical data for the period 1897&ndash;1917. Through analysis of these three time series, estimations for summer sea ice extent in the Weddell Sea, during the early nineteenth century have been produced. The key findings of this study indicate a nineteenth century average core summer northernmost sea ice latitude in much of the Weddell Sea that was further north than during the modern era, with nineteenth century February having significantly more sea ice by all measures. However, late summer sea ice was most extensive in the early years of the twentieth century.

<strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor">Abstract.</strong> Over the past three decades, discordant trends in sea ice extent have been observed between the Arctic and Antarctic regions. Arctic sea ice extent has been characterised by a rapid decline, whereas Antarctic sea ice extent, while highly variable inter-annually, has tended to increase. Climate models have so far failed to capture these trends. Coupled with the limited pre-1970 sea ice dataset, this poses a significant challenge to quantifying the mechanisms responsible for driving such trends. However, historical records from early Antarctic expeditions contain a wealth of information regarding the nature and concentration of sea ice. Such records have been under-utilised, and their analysis may enhance our understanding of recent Antarctic sea ice variability. For the purpose of this study, 9 records from 8 Antarctic expeditions have been examined. Summer sea ice positions recorded during 1820&ndash;1843 have been compared to satellite observations from 1987&ndash;2017, as well as historical data for the period 1897&ndash;1917. Through analysis of these three time series, estimations for summer sea ice extent in the Weddell Sea, during the early nineteenth century have been produced. The key findings of this study indicate a nineteenth century average core summer northernmost sea ice latitude in much of the Weddell Sea that was further north than during the modern era, with nineteenth century February having significantly more sea ice by all measures. However, late summer sea ice was most extensive in the early years of the twentieth century.

<strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor">Abstract.</strong> Over the past three decades, discordant trends in sea ice extent have been observed between the Arctic and Antarctic regions. Arctic sea ice extent has been characterised by a rapid decline, whereas Antarctic sea ice extent, while highly variable inter-annually, has tended to increase. Climate models have so far failed to capture these trends. Coupled with the limited pre-1970 sea ice dataset, this poses a significant challenge to quantifying the mechanisms responsible for driving such trends. However, historical records from early Antarctic expeditions contain a wealth of information regarding the nature and concentration of sea ice. Such records have been under-utilised, and their analysis may enhance our understanding of recent Antarctic sea ice variability. For the purpose of this study, 9 records from 8 Antarctic expeditions have been examined. Summer sea ice positions recorded during 1820&ndash;1843 have been compared to satellite observations from 1987&ndash;2017, as well as historical data for the period 1897&ndash;1917. Through analysis of these three time series, estimations for summer sea ice extent in the Weddell Sea, during the early nineteenth century have been produced. The key findings of this study indicate a nineteenth century average core summer northernmost sea ice latitude in much of the Weddell Sea that was further north than during the modern era, with nineteenth century February having significantly more sea ice by all measures. However, late summer sea ice was most extensive in the early years of the twentieth century.

<strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor">Abstract.</strong> Over the past three decades, discordant trends in sea ice extent have been observed between the Arctic and Antarctic regions. Arctic sea ice extent has been characterised by a rapid decline, whereas Antarctic sea ice extent, while highly variable inter-annually, has tended to increase. Climate models have so far failed to capture these trends. Coupled with the limited pre-1970 sea ice dataset, this poses a significant challenge to quantifying the mechanisms responsible for driving such trends. However, historical records from early Antarctic expeditions contain a wealth of information regarding the nature and concentration of sea ice. Such records have been under-utilised, and their analysis may enhance our understanding of recent Antarctic sea ice variability. For the purpose of this study, 9 records from 8 Antarctic expeditions have been examined. Summer sea ice positions recorded during 1820&ndash;1843 have been compared to satellite observations from 1987&ndash;2017, as well as historical data for the period 1897&ndash;1917. Through analysis of these three time series, estimations for summer sea ice extent in the Weddell Sea, during the early nineteenth century have been produced. The key findings of this study indicate a nineteenth century average core summer northernmost sea ice latitude in much of the Weddell Sea that was further north than during the modern era, with nineteenth century February having significantly more sea ice by all measures. However, late summer sea ice was most extensive in the early years of the twentieth century.