Relationship of the Extent of Antarctic and Arctic Ice with Temperature Changes, 1979\u20132020

I I Mokhov,M R Parfenova

doi:10.1134/s1028334x21010153

Abstract

Quantitative estimates of the relationship between interannual variations in the extent of Antarctic and Arctic sea ice and changes in the surface air temperature in the Northern and Southern hemispheres are obtained using satellite, ground-based, and reanalysis data for the past four decades (1980–2019). It is shown that the previously noted general increase in the extent of Antarctic sea ice observed until recent years from satellite data (available only since the late 1970s) over the background global warming and a rapid decrease in the extent of Arctic sea ice is associated with a regional decrease in the surface temperature at Antarctic latitudes from the end of the 1970s. This is a result of regional manifestation of natural climate variations with periods of up to several decades against the background of global secular warming with a relatively weak temperature trend over the ocean in the Southern Hemisphere. Since 2016, a sharp decrease in the extent of Antarctic sea ice in the Southern Ocean has been observed. The results of the correlation and cross-wavelet analysis indicate significant coherence and negative correlation with the surface temperature of the extent of sea ice in recent decades, not only in the Arctic, but also in the Antarctic.

Highlights

In recent decades significant climate changes have been observed, which are most pronounced at high latitudes [1,2,3]
A sharp decrease in the ice cover in the Southern Ocean has been observed against the background of a rapid decrease in the total extent of the Arctic sea ice caused by strong Arctic warming in recent decades and a general increase in the extent of sea ice in Antarctica since 2016 (Fig. 1)
Changes in the extent of the Antarctic and Arctic sea ice in recent decades are naturally associated with the changes in the temperature regime

Summary

INTRODUCTION

In recent decades significant climate changes have been observed, which are most pronounced at high latitudes [1,2,3]. In the first two decades of the 21st century, the rate of decrease in the extent of sea ice in the Arctic was so fast that, until recently, only a few climate models in the world were able to reproduce adequately the changes noted from satellite data since the late 1970s [1, 4]. This paper analyzes the features of the relationship of the interannual variability of the Antarctic and Arctic sea ice with the changes in the surface temperature in the Arctic and Antarctic as well as in the Northern (NH) and Southern (SH) hemispheres as a whole, based on the data collected in recent decades. We used cross-wavelet analysis along with correlation analysis to assess the relationship between sea ice regimes at polar latitudes and variations in the temperature regime

RESULTS

CONCLUSIONS

IPCC 2013: Climate Change 2013