Multivariate Cointegration Tests Research Articles

THE IMPACT OF CLAIM EXPENSES, UNDERWRITING RISK, PROFITABILITY, COMPANY SIZE AND RETENTION RATIO ON SOLVENCY OF INSURANCE INDUSTRY

The main purpose of this research is to analyze Claim Expenses, Underwriting Risk, Profitability, Company Size, and Retention Ratio on Solvency of Insurance Industry. The purpose of this research is to help future investors in choosing the right insurance company. This research was a quantitative descriptive research method. The sample used in this research is secondary data of Insurance Industry on the period from 2015 to 2020. Using SPSS (statistical package for the social sciences), methods of analysis used in this study include tolerance and VIF test, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, multivariate cointegration tests: Test, SRESID and ZPRED estimation, t-statistical tests, F-statistical test, coefficient of determination (R²), and Pearson Correlation Product Moment. The result of this research shows claim expense, underwriting risk, ROA, and company size have significant influence on insurance industry’s solvency, but retention ratio has no significant influence on insurance industry’s solvency. All the independent variables simultaneously from a good model to explain the solvency since the magnitude of the effect value is 83,4%, while remaining 16,6% is explained by other variables besides claim expense, underwriting risk, ROA, company size, and retention ratio. The linear regression produced a formula to calculate the solvency, so this formula could be used in monitoring the financial health of an insurance company.

The Time Series Analysis of Exports and Imports for the US

This study attempts to analyse the time series properties of exports, imports and exchange rate for the US. We empirically examine the presence of a cointegrating relationship between the exports, imports and the exchange rate using the monthly time series data from January, 1994 to September, 2023. The stationarity of the time series variables is tested using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test and the existence of a long run relationship between the variables is tested using Johansen’s multivariate cointegration test. The findings from the study show that there is no cointegrating relationship between exports, imports and the exchange rate for the US, implying that the macroeconomic policies of the US are not effective enough to bring her exports and imports in long-run equilibrium. These findings from the study can provide significant implications for national policymakers and the researchers alike.

Relationship of iron ore price with other major commodity prices

Understanding the interdependency of commodity market pricing system is very important for running a successful mining business. Much of the iron ore price is derived from the prices of other commodities. This study investigates the relationship between monthly iron ore prices against 12 other monthly commodity prices or indices including LNG, aluminium, nickel, silver, Australian coal, zinc, gold, oil, tin, copper, lead, and Commodity Price Index (Metals) in both bivariate and multivariate perspectives. An augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test is carried out to ensure that all the time series commodity prices and index are non-stationary. In multivariate modelling co-integration tests, observation is made on how many co-integrations exist out of 12 co-integrations for each respective lag between 0 and 45 months’ period. It is observed that 6 out of 12 commodity prices follow co-integrations in 1-month lag and continues in a cyclic pattern until 27 months after which it disappears. There are 3 commodities which continuously co-integrate with iron ore price change at all lags. For bivariate modelling, vector error correction model (VECM) estimation is carried out to prove the evidence of short-run responses to long-term relationship between iron ore prices and it is observed that oil, copper, and Australian coal prices have influence on and from iron ore prices. Then, Granger causality test is carried out to verify the VECM result by testing bi-directional causality between iron ore prices and copper, oil, and coal prices. It has been concluded that the iron ore price has bi-directional influence on oil, copper, and Australian coal prices and vice versa.

An Analysis of the Dynamic Linkages of Pakistani Stock Market with the World’s Leading Stock Markets

Using the theoretical framework of International Portfolio Diversification (IPD), the study explores the long-run relationship between the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) and the world's six leading stock exchanges of Canada, China, France, Japan, United Kingdom, and the United States. These markets are represented by the indices such as KSE-100 index (Pakistan), TSX (Canada), SSE Composite (China), CAC-40 Index (France), Nikkie-225 (Japan), FTSE-100 index (UK) and DJIA (US). An extended sample period of 27 years, has been studied ranging from 1991 to 2018, using daily, weekly, and monthly frequencies. This paper investigates the existence of cointegration among the markets by employing Johansen and Juselius bi-variate and multivariate co-integration techniques. The Augmented Dicky Fuller (ADF) and Phillip and Perron (P-P) test indicate that all the series are non stationary at level, whereas they are stationary at the first difference form. In addition, the results of the bi-variate co-integration test show that Pakistani market is weakly linked with the rest of the six markets. In addition, the findings of the multivariate co-integration test confirm two co-integrating equations—France and the UK stock exchanges are integrated on the daily data, while China and Canada stock exchanges are integrated on monthly data. An essential implication deduced from this result is that these markets are loosely connected with each other over the period investigated. Hence, international investors seeking to reduce risk can diversify their portfolio risk by including these markets in their pool of investment.

THE ASYMMETRIC EFFECT OF OIL PRICE ON THE EXCHANGE RATE AND STOCK PRICE IN NIGERIA

The study examines the asymmetric effect of oil price on the exchange rate and stock price using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributive Lag (NARDL) technique on the time-series data spanning from January 1996 to September 2020. The multivariate cointegration test showed evidence of a long-run relationship among the stock price, exchange rate, and oil price. The linear Granger causality test showed that stock price is granger caused by oil price and exchange rate, and oil price is granger cause by stock price and exchange rate. The nonlinear granger causality showed evidence of nonlinearity using the BDS test. The Dick-Panchenko non-parametric and nonlinear Granger causality test in a contrary to the linear Granger causality test showed a unidirectional nonlinear causality from exchange rate to stock price at 10% level, and from oil price to exchange rate at 1% and 10% levels respectively. The result from the nonlinear ARDL revealed that change in oil price impacted asymmetrically on the exchange rate and stock price both in the short-run and long-run. The study recommends that the revenue generated from increasing oil price should be used for developing and reinstalling decayed infrastructure and oil-exporting countries should develop mechanisms and strategies that will ensure fair stability in the capital markets irrespective of the shocks in oil price.

Cointegration and Causality between Disaggregated Exports and Economic Growth in ASEAN-4 Nations

This study aimed to examine the relationship between ASEAN-4’s disaggregates exports (i.e., manufactured and primary exports) and economic growth by utilising the time series data over the period from 1982 to 2017. The Johansen-Juselius multivariate procedure was performed to determine the existence of the long-run relationship between variables, while the Granger causality test within VECM was applied to analyse the long-run and short-run causal directions. Prior to that, the unit root test was conducted to examine the series properties of the variables. The empirical results from the Johansen and Juselius Multivariate Cointegration test revealed that there were long-run equilibrium relationships among variables, while the Granger causality test based on VECM found that the ELG hypothesis for manufactured exports was valid for Indonesia in the long-run and short-run, while in the Philippines this hypothesis was only valid for the short-run. On the other hand, in the case of Malaysia and Thailand, both ELG and GLE hypotheses were valid in both long-run and short-run. For each ASEAN-4 nation the results also revealed that physical capital indirectly caused economic growth via the manufactured exports. Nevertheless, in the case of Malaysia and Thailand, it seemed that the reserve effect was likely to happen whereby the economic growth caused the growth of manufactured exports through the increase of the national production. The growth of the manufactured exports due to the reverse effect in turn caused the demand for imports to increase, particularly the imports of intermediate products. As far as the primary exports were concerned, the ELG hypothesis was valid for Thailand in both long-run and short-run, while for Malaysia and Indonesia, this hypothesis was valid respectively in the long-run and short-run. For Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, it appeared that in the short run, human capital indirectly stimulated economic growth via primary exports.

Price variation and transmission in beans consuming market of Southwest, Nigeria

Nigeria's bean market is still characterized by inefficient and weak integration due to inadequate price information and market infrastructure. Therefore, the study investigates the price variation and transmission of beans markets in Nigeria's Southwest region. The study employed an average monthly price of white and brown beans in rural and urban markets spanning March 2014 to July 2019. Coefficient of variation (CV), Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Johansen co-integration test and Granger-Causality tests were the analytical tools used for the analysis. The results of CV indicated a spike variation of beans prices over the periods. Urban brown beans experienced the lowest variability of 1.56% in 2015, while rural brown beans experienced the highest variability of 30.03% in 2014. The co-integration test established a long-run dynamic between bean products of different varieties in the same market. However, it failed in the same products in different markets using a bivariate co-integration test. The multivariate co-integration test’s results affirmed that bean markets are strongly linked together in the long-run. The results of Granger-causality showed uni-directional and bi-directional causalities in the beans markets. Rural white beans assumed the lead position and formed the major price transmission in the beans’ markets in the area. Therefore, for more efficiency in the beans’ rural and urban markets, the government should design appropriate market strategies such as accessible market information and infrastructures.

The implications of the COVID-19 pandemic on rice market performance in Java, Indonesia

Applying the multivariate cointegration tests with daily prices during the period August 15, 2019, to August 11, 2020 (250 data), this paper examines whether prices in the rice deficit market (Jakarta) are co-integrated with prices in surplus markets (Semarang and Surabaya). Research data is the average daily price in traditional markets in Jakarta, Semarang, and Surabaya. The main focus is on the effect of implementing various programs and policies relating to controlling the spread of COVID-19 to the integration of the rice market in Java. On March 02, 2020, the first two COVID-19 cases in Indonesia were confirmed as a dummy variable that we use regarding controlling borders between regions and restricting the movement of goods. The cointegration tests find that the domestic rice prices of Jakarta - Semarang and Jakarta - Surabaya are integrated both in short-run and long-run periods. In the short term, programs and policies relating to controlling the spread of COVID-19 do not affect the integration of Java’s rice market. One reason is that during the pandemic, the rice supply chain’s performance was still protected by the government to maintain the stability of rice supply for the citizens.

Democracy and Corruption Causality in Indonesia

The objective of this study is to analyze the causality between democracy and corruption in Indonesia for the period of 1995 to 2017. This study perform a multivariate cointegration test with government expenditure as a control variable and cross-check this long-run relationship with an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model approach to cointegration beside multivariate approach proposed by Johansen & Juselius. The results show that there is cointegration among the variables specified in the model of corruption equation when government expenditure is taken into account. Indeed, for corruption and democracy to move together in the long run, they need to be associated with government expenditure. The tests for Granger Causality conducted show a long-run causality running from democracy and government expenditure to corruption. In other word, the democracy and government expenditure Granger cause corruption and not the reverse. In short-run, there is neutrality causation between democracy and corruption.

ANALISIS KOINTEGRASI DAN KAUSALITAS ANTARA INFRASTRUKTUR JALAN, PERDAGANGAN BARANG DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI NEGARA ANGGOTA ASEAN

This research aims to analyze Cointegration and Causality among ASEAN Road Infrastructure, ASEAN Total Trade in Goods and Rate of GDP Growth, using time series data, that is yearly data during the time period 2007 to 2015. The method used to test cointegration is Johansen’s Multivariate Cointegration Test dan the method used to test the causality is Granger’s Causality. The result of cointegration test revealed that there are a long run relationship between ASEAN Road Infrastructure, ASEAN Total Trade in Goods and Rate of GDP Growth in each member country of ASEAN. While the results of the Granger Causality test found there is a two-way relationship (mutual causality) between ASEAN Total Trade in Goods and Rate of GDP Growth in each member country of ASEAN. But, there is one-way relationship between ASEAN Road Infrastructure and ASEAN Total Trade in Goods and Rate of GDP Growth in each member country of ASEAN, which ASEAN Road Infrastructure gives effect to ASEAN Total Trade in Goods and Rate of GDP Growth

Democracy and Growth Nexus in Indonesia

The objective of this study is to analyze the causality between democracy and economic growth in Indonesia for the period of 1995 to 2017. More specifically, this paper also attends to investigate the existence of a long-run relationship between them. This study perform a multivariate cointegration test with political stability as a control variable and cross-check this long-run relationship with an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model approach to cointegration. This study also use the Granger causality test within a vector error correction model (VECM) framework and estimate three different models using a non-linear specification: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation, Fully Modified OLS (FM-OLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS). The results show cointegration among the variables specified in the model when political stability is taken into account. Indeed, for economic growth and democracy to move together in the long run, they need to be associated with political stability. The tests for Granger causality conducted show a long-run causality running from GDP and political stability to democracy. In other word, the economic growth and political stability Granger cause democracy. It is the economic performance that influences democracy and not the reverse. In short-run, there is neutrality causation between democracy and growth, democracy and political stability, growth and political stability. These results suggest that economic growth through strong institutions is a precondition for democratization.

Econometric Modelling: Testing of Randomness,Volatility, Casualty and Cointegration of Emerging Stock Market Indices of India and MIST Countries

In general, stock market indices are widely interrelated to the other global markets to detect the impact of diversification opportunities. The present research paper empirically examines randomness and long term equilibrium affiliation amongst the emerging stock market of India and Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey from the monthly time series data during February 2008 to October 2019. The researcher employs by the way, Run test, Pearson’s correlation test, Johnsen’s multivariate cointegration test, VECM and Granger causality test with reference to post-September 2008 Global financial crisis. The test results of the above finds that Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex is significantly cointegrated either among themselves or with MIST countries particularly during the post-September Global financial crisis. No random walk is found during the study period. The ADF (Augmented Dickey-Fuller) and PP (Phillips Pearson) tests evidenced stationarity at the level, but converted into non-stationarity in first difference. Symmetric and asymmetric volatility behaviors are studied using GARCH, EGARCH and TARCH models in order to test which model has the best forecasting ability. Leverage effect was apparent during the study period. So the influx of bad news has a bigger shock or blow on the conditional variance than the influx of good news. The residual diagnostic test (Correlogram-Squared residuals test, ARCH LM test and Jarque-Bera test) confirms GARCH (1,1) as the best suited model for estimating volatility andforecasting stock market index.

Energy Consumption and Performance of Sectoral Outputs: Results from an Energy-Impoverished Economy

This paper is directed at exploring the relationship among energy consumption, disaggregated sectoral output (GDP) and economic growth in Nigeria using time series data. The study applied a plethora of estimation techniques (multivariate unit root, Johansen cointegration and Granger causality tests). The study found that energy consumption has enhanced the performance of agriculture, health, manufacturing, utilities, finance and transport sectors in Nigeria during the period under consideration. Long-run energy consumption was found to be detrimental to the performance of administration output (GDP). The study recommends that energy consumption should be encouraged essentially for sectoral and industrial purposes (the production of intermediate goods and services) and not only for household consumption.

ARE EXPORTS, IMPORTS, AND EXCHANGE RATES COINTEGRATED? EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM NEPAL

This paper attempts to empirically investigate the presence of a cointegrating relationship between the exports, imports, and the USD exchange rate in Nepal using the yearly time series data from 1965 to 2017. Time series properties of the data are diagnosed using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test and Johansen's multivariate cointegration test. The findings indicate that there exists no cointegrating relationship between exports, imports, and the USD exchange rate in Nepal, and hence, no causal relationships within vector error correction model (VECM) can be estimated for Nepal. The lack of cointegration implies that macroeconomic policies of Nepal have been ineffective in bringing exports and imports in long-run equilibrium, and thus, Nepal is in violation of her international budget constraint. These findings may have important implications for decision- making by national policymakers.Keywords: Exports, Imports, International Budget ConstraintJEL Classifications: F41, C22, C32DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.7588

Oil price Fluctuation, Gold Returns and Inflationary Pressure: An Empirical Analysis Using Cointegration Approach

Given that oil and gold prices are the major representative for commodity market, they both play a crucial role in determining the level of consumption, industrial production and investment due to the direct effect by the changes in their prices. In addition, both oil and gold prices have inflationary pressure which has a direct impact on countries economic growth. Therefore, it is of crucial practical significance to analyze their cointrgration relationships to understand the co-movement of both prices. To do so, this paper aims to examine the impact of oil price fluctuation on gold prices taking into account the inflationary pressure in the United States (US). Using monthly data from April, 1986 to September, 2018, Johansen multivariate cointegration test procedure and vector error correction model (VECM) have been employed to examine the long-run relationship between the variables in the US. The key findings suggest that there is a significant positive long run relationship between crude oil prices, gold prices and inflation. In the short run, the impact of any changes in crude oil prices will have a delayed effect on the prices of gold, while the impact of inflation in not different from zero. In addition, both gold prices and inflation are found to have no impact on gold prices in the short run. The findings of this research are important for investors, portfolio managers, corporate houses, crude oil traders, the government and policy makers.

Macroeconomic Determinants of Consumer Lending in Saudi Arabia

This paper empirically investigates the macroeconomic variables that influence consumer lending in Saudi Arabia using quarterly data for the period of 1996-2017. The Johansen and Juselius (1990) multivariate cointegration test were used to examine the impact of banks liquidity, interest rate, oil prices and GDP per capita on consumer lending. The test results indicate the existence of the long-term relationship and the empirical results show that consumer lending is positively influenced by a change in banks liquidity, growth in oil prices and GDP per capita. Contrary to expectation, the interest rate was positive and significant. The modified Granger causality test in Error Correction Model framework reports bidirectional causality from banks liquidity to consumer lending and vice versa, while unidirectional causality from GDP per capita and interest rate to consumer lending. The main finding of the paper is to encourage the monetary authority to allow for a gradual phase-out of restrictions on the number of personal loans as well as enhancing consumer protection mechanism to prohibit unfair contractual terms in the agreements.

LIVESTOCK MARKET INTEGRATION AND PRICE DYNAMICS IN THE UNITED STATES

This study examines livestock market integration and price dynamics in the United States using weekly price series of five major livestock market from October 2005 to March 2015. Engle-Granger and Gregory-Hansen bivariate co-integration tests and Johansen multivariate co-integration test were employed to measure integration among spatially separated markets. Price dynamics among livestock markets were investigated by the Vector Error Correction model. The result indicates that all markets are co-integrated with sharing a common stochastic trend suggesting the ‘Law of One Price’. The long-run and short-run dynamics of price suggest that the transmission of price changes from one market to another market during the same week is very fast. Livestock markets in the United States are well integrated reflecting satisfactory level of price discovery and market efficiency.

The Relationship Between Prices of Various Metals, Oil and Scarcity

No consensus has been reached on the problem of solving resource depletion. A recognition of the fact that resources are not endless and the Earth is a finite globe reinforces the idea that the vision of continuous economic growth is not sustainable over time. The aim of this paper is to examine the efficacy of real prices as an indicator of metals and oil in consideration of growth tendencies in the Consumer Price Indexes. In addition, enhancing the current literature on commodity price interrelationships, the main contribution of this study is the substitution of different proxies in order to justify the effect of scarcity and crude oil changes on the examined metal group prices. In order to demonstrate the usefulness of scarcity as an indicator of real price deviations, the study has been conducted involving various non-renewable metals, i.e., copper, molybdenum, zinc, gold and platinum group metals. The real price indices and metal prices of the US market are constructed between 1913 and 2015. Moreover, additional econometric analyses are also carried out to discover whether prices of various metals associate with oil prices and scarcity, as the proxy of reserves-to-production ratio. The linear regression results seem to suggest that the effects of the R/P ratios are negatively correlated with each of the examined precious (gold, PGMs), mass consumable (copper, zinc) and doping agent (molybdenum) metals from 1991 to 2015. An increase in oil-prices is positively associated with the price levels of each non-renewable resource in the short-run. The findings of multivariate co-integration and Granger causality tests also suggest that pairwise and direct relationships among these variables seem to arise in the long-run. These findings indicate essential questions that must be addressed by future generations in order to appropriately solve scarcity problems.

Stock prices' interdependence during the South Sea boom and bust

AbstractThis paper empirically investigates interdependence between major companies' stock prices during the 1720 South Sea boom and bust. This was one of the first documented major financial crashes in the European market. Empirical tests are conducted by means of rolling coefficients, multivariate cointegration, rolling cointegration, and causality tests. Results indicate a substantial interdependence among the stock prices during the boom but not during the bust period. This result implies the failure of the efficient market hypothesis and the diminishing ability of the investors to reduce portfolio risk via diversification during the boom period. The causality test results provide ample evidence of short‐term interaction between shares during the period of increasing prices.

Sectoral integration and investment diversification opportunities: evidence from Colombo Stock Exchange

This study examined the diversification opportunities within sectors of Colombo Stock Exchange by measuring co-integration among sectors. Those sectors of CSE which are not integrated with others offer good diversification opportunities. Moreover, the study also applies Granger Causality Test to determine which sectors of CSE cause other sectors. This helps an investor informing a diversified portfolio. This study employed daily closing indices of all sectors listed in Colombo Stock Exchange during the period from 1-12-2003 to 31-8-2016. Multivariate Co-integration and Pairwise Co-integration Tests are applied to determine integration among sectors and Granger Causality to determine causal relation among these Sectors of CSE. Stationarity by unit root test revealed that the fourteen sectors are selected for running cointgeration at Level 1. Findings examined that no sector is integrated with other sectors. Thus, CSE provides excellent diversification opportunity to the investors. From an investor point of view, the findings of the study are helpful for a well-diversified portfolio by selecting stocks from those sectors which are not integrated with other sectors and minimize the unsystematic risk. This study significantly contribute the existing literature particularly those investors who want to diversify their portfolios domestically rather internationally.