The Time Series Analysis of Exports and Imports for the US

Abstract

This study attempts to analyse the time series properties of exports, imports and exchange rate for the US. We empirically examine the presence of a cointegrating relationship between the exports, imports and the exchange rate using the monthly time series data from January, 1994 to September, 2023. The stationarity of the time series variables is tested using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test and the existence of a long run relationship between the variables is tested using Johansen’s multivariate cointegration test. The findings from the study show that there is no cointegrating relationship between exports, imports and the exchange rate for the US, implying that the macroeconomic policies of the US are not effective enough to bring her exports and imports in long-run equilibrium. These findings from the study can provide significant implications for national policymakers and the researchers alike.