Multivariate Cointegration Tests Research Articles

Real Exchange Rates and Productivity Closed-Form Solutions and Some Empirical Evidence

This paper examines the impact of productivity shocks on real exchange rate fluctuations in a dynamic international general equilibrium model with nontraded goods. The model predicts a close association between relative technology shocks and bilateral real exchange rate movements. Empirical results based on the data for Group of Seven countries are consistent with the predicted theoretical correlations. Using Johansen and Juselius (1990) multivariate cointegration tests the study finds that a statistically significant relationship exists between bilateral real exchange rates and international productivity differentials in the traded and nontraded sectors.

Does Interest Rate Volatility Affect the US M1 Demand Function? Evidence From Cointegration

The long‐run demand for US real M1 in the post Second World War period (1954–96) is investigated. The empirical investigation is conducted by means of Johansen multivariate cointegration tests and error correction models. Results show that a stationary long‐run M1 demand function is only found when the interest rate volatility or the inflation rate volatility is included in the function. The conditional variance estimate from the GARCH(1, 1) model is used as volatility in the empirical work. Results from the error correction models indicate causality between real M1 and its determinants, including interest rate (and inflation rate) volatility. A significant presence of interest rate volatility in the money demand function may affect economic performance and monetary policy.

On the won and other East Asian currencies

Five East Asian currencies—the Indonesian rupiah, Korean won, Singapore dollar, Taiwanese dollar and the Thai baht—are modeled in the framework of a monetary specification augmented by the relative price of non-tradables. This relative price variable proxies for the Balassa–Samuelson effect in East Asian real exchange rates identified in previous studies. All of the currencies fit the long run implications of various types of monetary models, according to Johansen multivariate co-integration tests. Exchange rates do the bulk of adjustment toward equilibrium, except in the cases of the Thai baht and the New Taiwan dollar. For these currencies, interest rates and money supplies move to restore equilibrium. In ex post simulations, the out-of-sample fit of the estimated models is relatively good for the won, Singapore and New Taiwan dollars, and for the baht, although in no case is the exact magnitude and timing of the currency crashes predicted. The estimated model completely fails to track the rupiah out-of-sample. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

On the won and other East Asian currencies

Five East Asian currencies—the Indonesian rupiah, Korean won, Singapore dollar, Taiwanese dollar and the Thai baht—are modeled in the framework of a monetary specification augmented by the relative price of non-tradables. This relative price variable proxies for the Balassa–Samuelson effect in East Asian real exchange rates identified in previous studies. All of the currencies fit the long run implications of various types of monetary models, according to Johansen multivariate co-integration tests. Exchange rates do the bulk of adjustment toward equilibrium, except in the cases of the Thai baht and the New Taiwan dollar. For these currencies, interest rates and money supplies move to restore equilibrium. In ex post simulations, the out-of-sample fit of the estimated models is relatively good for the won, Singapore and New Taiwan dollars, and for the baht, although in no case is the exact magnitude and timing of the currency crashes predicted. The estimated model completely fails to track the rupiah out-of-sample. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Dynamic Causal Chain of Money, Output, Interest Rate and Prices in Malaysia: Evidence Based On Vector Error- Correction Modelling Analysis

The dynamic causal chain among money, real output, interest rate, and inflation is Reexamined in the context of a small fast-growing economy using the recently developed techniques of Johansen's multivariate conitegration analysis followed by vector error-correction modelling, Granger causality, variance decompositions, and impulse response functions. The results of the multivariate cointegration tests suggested a stable long-run equilibrium relationship exists among these macroeconomic variables. The short-run results based on vector error-correction modeling, on the other hand, support the New Keynesians' view that money is non- neutral, at least in the short-run. It also indicates that monetary policy can contribute to the stability of domestic prices. M1, among the various definitions of money stock, has been identified as the most effective intermediate monetary target to curb inflation. M3, in turn, has been suggested as the most appropriate intermediate target to promote sustainable economic growth with contained inflation. For this economy, the deviation of the macroeconomic activity from its long-run equilibrium is adjusted through changes in the money stock and prices [E44]

Government intervention and market integration in Indonesian rice markets

AbstractLong‐run spatial price relationships in Indonesian rice markets and factors affecting the degree of market integration are evaluated using multivariate cointegration tests with weekly price data for the 1982‐1993 period. The analysis includes evaluation of pre‐self‐sufficiency and post‐self‐sufficiency periods as well as Cot the entire period. The cointegration tests for entire Indonesian rice market, represented by the nine most relevant price series, indicate that relative to the pre‐self‐sufficiency period, the post‐self‐sufficiency period has a smaller degree of market integration. The change of the degree of market integration over time indicates that rationalizing of the Indonesian rice price policy beyond 1984 rice self‐sufficiency has resulted in a less integrated market. This suggests that the policy shift has allowed the government to decrease its intervention without significantly decreasing market integration, indicating that the private sector is responding to price signals appropriately. It is possible that further reduction in intervention through widening the band between the floor and ceiling price could be accomplished without greatly affecting market integration. Regression results show that government intervention in terms of rice procurement significantly influenced market integration during the period of post‐self‐sufficiency (1985‐1993) and the entire period of 1982‐1993. This indicates that this aspect of government intervention has had positive influences on market integration, in contrast to distribution efforts, which were not found to be statistically significant, Procurement prices may be high, and could perhaps be lowered, reducing program costs. Regional per capita income is also found to be positively related to highei levels of market integration, suggesting that in periods of economic growth, government intervention may be decreased, thereby reducing program costs.

Government intervention and market integration in Indonesian rice markets

Abstract Long-run spatial price relationships in Indonesian rice markets and factors affecting the degree of market integration are evaluated using multivariate cointegration tests with weekly price data for the 1982–1993 period. The analysis includes evaluation of pre-self-sufficiency and post-self-sufficiency periods as well as for the entire period. The cointegration tests for entire Indonesian rice market, represented by the nine most relevant price series, indicate that relative to the pre-self-sufficiency period, the post-self-sufficiency period has a smaller degree of market integration. The change of the degree of market integration over time indicates that rationalizing of the Indonesian rice price policy beyond 1984 rice self-sufficiency has resulted in a less integrated market. This suggests that the policy shift has allowed the government to decrease its intervention without significantly decreasing market integration, indicating that the private sector is responding to price signals appropriately. It is possible that further reduction in intervention through widening the band between the floor and ceiling price could be accomplished without greatly affecting market integration. Regression results show that government intervention in terms of rice procurement significantly influenced market integration during the period of post-self-sufficiency (1985–1993) and the entire period of 1982–1993. This indicates that this aspect of government intervention has had positive influences on market integration, in contrast to distribution efforts, which were not found to be statistically significant. Procurement prices may be high, and could perhaps be lowered, reducing program costs. Regional per capita income is also found to be positively related to higher levels of market integration, suggesting that in periods of economic growth, government intervention may be decreased, thereby reducing program costs.

Another visit to the Cagan model of money demand: the latest Russian experience

This paper investigates empirically the Cagan style money demand function for Russia during the recent hyperinflation era, 1992–1994. Using the Johansen multivariate cointegration test, results indicate that rate of change of exchange rate (currency depreciation) is required in the demand function for real M2 and real currency in order to obtain a stationary long-run relationship. Error correction model results show that there exists a bidirectional causality between real money balances and determinants of real money demand, including currency depreciation. Exchange rate sensitivity of the demand for money indicates currency substitution.

Macro-monetary effects on agricultural prices: the case of Greek agriculture

The macroeconomic effects on agricultural prices in the Greek economy and, in particular, differences in prices paid and received by farmers (cost-price squeeze) are examined employing integration and cointegration analysis. A Johansen cointegration test between prices paid and prices received by farmers supports the presence of cost-price squeeze, since non-cointegration between the two price indices cannot be rejected. In other words, prices paid by farmers respond more than prices received by farmers during inflationary periods and hence affect their parity ratio. Multivariate cointegration tests indicated that forces outside agriculture can explain the non-cointegration between farm input and output prices. These forces are monetary macro variables through the country's macroeconomic policy, such as money supply, the general price level and the domestic product.

Testing for the Price‐ and Wage‐Setting Model in Belgium Using Multivariate Cointegration Tests

Using multivariate cointegration tests based on Johansen's approach, this paper tests for the existence of long‐run relationships between real wages and other explaining variables in Belgium. We retain two cointegrating vectors which can refer to wage and price setting behaviours.

Energy consumption, real income and temporal causality: results from a multi-country study based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques

Unlike previous studies on the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, this paper illustrates how the finding of cointegration (i.e. long-term equilibrium relationship) between these variables, may be used in testing Granger causality. Based on the most recent Johansen's multivariate cointegration tests preceded by various unit root or non-stationarity tests, we test for cointegration between total energy consumption and real income of six Asian economies: India, Pakistan, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and the Philippines. Non-rejection of cointegration between variables rules out Granger non-causality and imples at least one way of Granger-causality, either unidirectional or bidirectionial. Secondly, by using a dynamic vector error-correction model, we then analyse the direction of Granger-causation and hence the within-sample Granger-exogeneity or endogeneity of each of the variables. Thirdly, the relative strength of the causality is gauged (through the dynamic variance decomposition technique) by decomposing the total impact of an unanticipated shock to each of the variables beyond the sample period, into proportions attributable to shocks in the other variables including its own, in the bivariate system. Results based on these tools of methodology indicate that while all pair-wise relationships shared common univariate integrational properties, only relationships for three countries (India, Pakistan and Indonesia) were cointegrated. For these countries, temporal causality results were mixed with unidirectional causality from energy to income for India, exactly the reverse for Indonesia, and mutual causality for Pakistan. The VDCs were not inconsistent with these results and provided us with an additional insight as to the relatively more dominant direction of causation in Pakistan. Simple bivariate vector-autoregressive models for the three non-cointegrated systems did not indicate any direction of causality, significantly in either direction.

Short-run and long-run dynamic linkages among international stock markets

This paper investigates the dynamic linkages among the U.S., Japan, U.K. and German stock market indices using daily data for the April 1, 1984 to May 31,91 period. In contrast to previous studies, a vector error correction model of cointegrated variables as developed by Johansen (1988, 1991) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) is employed to examine both short-run and long-run intermarket relationships among these four stock markets. Significant evidence is found in support of both short-run and long-run relationships among these four stock market indices. The U.S. stock market leads other stock markets in short-run in the pre and post October 1987 crash, but leads all other markets in the long-run in all periods examined. The presence of a one long-run cointegrating equilibrium relationship among the four stock market indices implies a limited role of international diversification for investors with long holding periods. However, because the US-Japan-Germany stock market indices, and Japan-UK-Germany indices are not cointegrated with each other, these indices may yield international portfolio diversification in the long-run. Finally, the conflicting results from multivariate cointegration tests found in this study can not be used to provide conclusive evidence on international stock market efficiency.

The foreign exchange market efficiency hypothesis revisiting the puzzle

The Engle-Granger bivariate (strong form) and the Johansen-Juselius multivariate (weak form) cointegration tests are performed between the spot and forward rate series over multiple horizons to test the market efficiency hypothesis (MEH).

Cointegration of International Stock Market Indices

In this paper, we derive evidence on the integration of international stock markets from the cointegration properties of international stock market prices. Using the multivariate cointegration test of Johansen, we find that the set of six country stock price indices, including that of the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Japan are cointegrated. The results suggest that there are long-run equilibrium relationships among the stock market prices. Subsample and subgroup analyses also indicate that the cointegration relationships have become stronger over time. This is consistent with greater stock market integration amid the increasing liberalization and globalization of capital markets.

Cointegration of International Stock Markat Indices

In this paper, we derive evidence on the integration of international stock markets from the cointegration properties of international stock market prices. Using the multivariate cointegration test of Johansen, we find that the set of six country stock price indices, including that of the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Japan are cointegrated. The results suggest that there are long-run equilibrium relationships among the stock market prices. Subsample and subgroup analyses also indicate that the cointegration relationships have become stronger over time. This is consistent with greater stock market integration amid the increasing liberalization and globalization of capital markets.

Multivariate Cointegration Tests and the Law of One Price: A Clarification and Correction

Multivariate Cointegration Tests and the Law of One Price: A Clarification and Correction

MULTIVARIATE COINTEGRATION TESTING OF THE EFFICIENCY OF AUSTRALIA'S SPOT FOREX MARKET

Abstract:Efficiency in Australia's spot FOREX market is tested using daily, weekly and four‐weekly data subsequent to the floating of the dollar in 1983. Earlier research using pairwise cointegration tests of currency markets has suggested little evidence of market inefficiencies. However, multivariate cointegration tests carried out in the paper, based on canonical transformation of the exchange rate data, suggest the existence of long run equilibrium relationships among the spot rates, implying the existence of market inefficiency in the FOREX market.

Multivariate Cointegration Tests and the Law of One Price in International Wheat Markets

The multivariate cointegration testing procedures recently developed by Johansen are used to evaluate the law of one price (LOP) for prices in five international wheat markets. Efficient arbitrage and trade activities should ensure that individual wheat prices in spatially separated markets are linked through a common long-run equilibrium. The results indicate that the LOP fails as a long-run equilibrium relationship when transportation costs are ignored. However, if wheat prices are adjusted for freight rates, the LOP is fully supported.

Correct cointegration tests of the long-run relationship between nominal interest and inflation

The Fisher (1930) hypothesis suggests that a long-run equilibrium relationship exists between the non-stationary series: nominal interest and expected inflation. Testing such a cointegrating relationship is complicated by the presence of the unobserved ex antereal rate of interest in residuals from the cointegrating regression. Assumptions concerning the stochastic properties of the expected real rate of interest are examined, and two proxies for the ex antereal rate are employed in multivariate cointegration tests of the Fisher hypothesis.