Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression Research Articles

Spatial heterogeneity of driving factors-induced impacts for global long-term surface urban heat island

ABSTRACT A series of empirical analytical tools have been adopted to investigate the driving mechanisms of surface urban heat islands (SUHI) on a global scale, among which spatial heterogeneity is yet to be fully elucidated. In this study, we investigated the spatial non-stationarity of the driving factors concerning surface properties, climate conditions, and urbanization processes for global long-term SUHI. First, the potential impact on SUHI was explored using global ordinary least squares regression. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) and multi-scale GWR (MGWR) from local perspectives were employed for comparison. The results show that the MGWR has the highest goodness of fit at 0.87, 0.73, 0.90, 0.74, 0.85, and 0.76 for annual day/night (AD/AN), summer day/night (SD/SN), and winter day/night (WD/WN) scales, respectively. Although both global and local schemes exhibit similar influencing magnitudes and signs on the SUHI, the MGWR is better at capturing spatial non-stationarity. Globally, for AD, AN, SD, SN, WD, and WN, the coefficients of the urban-rural vegetation index difference (ΔEVI) and surface albedo difference (ΔWSA), urban mean precipitation (MAP), wind speed (WS), population density (PD), and urban area (UA) are −0.50, +0.30, +0.16, +1.31, −0.03, and +0.03, respectively, at daytime, and −0.38, −0.33, −0.39, −0.10, +0.18, and +0.08, respectively, at night-time. Given the spatial heterogeneity of multiple factors, ΔEVI exhibits a strong mitigation effect on the SD SUHI especially in arid zones. The negative influence of ΔWSA on night-time SUHI demonstrates a strong latitudinal disparity and greater sensitivity in the equatorial zone. The positive correlations between MAP and AD/SD SUHIs have evident latitudinal and longitudinal variations. The mitigation effect of WS displayed distinct coastal amplification, especially in WD. In contrast, the PD and UA presented prominent positive impacts on night-time SUHI with less seasonal contrast.

Driving forces analysis of urban ground deformation using satellite monitoring and multiscale geographically weighted regression

Urban ground deformation has been widely concerned because of its safety risks and impact on the normal construction of cities. To better characterize the ground deformation, this research develops a hybrid approach that integrates multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) and satellite monitoring to quantitively estimate the impact of driving force factors on urban ground deformation. The small baseline subset interferometric synthetic aperture radar (SBAS-InSAR) method is processed to monitor the urban ground deformation with the help of satellite images. The MGWR model is developed to explore the influencing factors of ground deformation in different geographical locations. Regression analysis is performed to explore the influence of driving factors on ground deformation and deformation velocity. A realistic case in Singapore is investigated to demonstrate the MGWR model and its superiority. The results indicate that: (1) With the help of satellite monitoring images, the MGWR model has excellent fitting performance with a R2 value of 0.747 in predicting ground deformation velocity and that of 0.722 in predicting ground deformation; (2) Water and build are two main driving force factors toward ground deformation velocity, while build, population, and elevation are three main driving force factors on monthly ground deformation; (3) The goodness-of-fit of MGWR model outperforms GWR and OLS models in validation metrics. This MGWR approach provides insights into a better understanding of driving force factors in urban ground deformation, aiding the proactive control plans for mitigating the surface subsidence disaster.

How building and street morphology affect CO2 emissions: Evidence from a spatially varying relationship analysis in Beijing

Urban morphology plays a critical role in the reduction of CO2 emissions. Despite the growing interest in the relationship between urban form and CO2 emissions in urban sustainable development, few quantitative estimates have been made of the effects of urban morphology considering the combination of three-dimensional (3D) buildings and streets at the neighbourhood scale on CO2 emissions. To explore these effects, this study first proposes a methodological system for computing urban morphology indicators including 3D buildings, streets and their relationships. These morphological indicators quantitatively measure the extension, shape complexity, spatial compactness and irregularity of buildings and streets. Then, the urban morphology indicators and CO2 emissions are calculated for each traffic analysis zone (TAZ) to obtain their characteristics of spatial distribution, using Beijing as the study area. Ultimately, the non-stationary effects of morphological indicators on CO2 are quantified by Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR). The results demonstrate that each morphological factor performs a distinguishable function in different regions. The adjacency ratio, meshedness and width have strongly positive effects on CO2 emissions in the northern part of Beijing within the 6th ring road, while the covered area ratio and the linearity play a crucial negative role, implying that the complexity and sparse layout of buildings and streets are the main drivers to increase CO2 emissions. In the southern part, the length, width STD and height STD pose an apparently positive impact on CO2 emissions, while the openness poses a significant adverse effect, implying that the irregularity and fragment of buildings along streets are the primary reasons for CO2 emissions augmentation. In the densely populated area, the number, floor area ratio, and neighbour distance all exserts a robust positive effect on CO2 emissions. Interestingly, the floor area ratio poses negative effects within the 5th and 6th ring roads, which is a dense industry zone, implying the expansion of buildings can reduce industrial proportion to mitigate CO2 emissions. This study provides insights into CO2 emissions related to micro-scale morphological characteristics and suggests achievable plans for low-carbon physical urban spaces in a spatially varying manner.

Restorative perception of urban streets: Interpretation using deep learning and MGWR models.

Restorative environments help people recover from mental fatigue and negative emotional and physical reactions to stress. Excellent restorative environments in urban streets help people focus and improve their daily behavioral performance, allowing them to regain efficient information processing skills and cognitive levels. High-density urban spaces create obstacles in resident interactions with the natural environment. For urban residents, the restorative function of the urban space is more important than that of the natural environment in the suburbs. An urban street is a spatial carrier used by residents on a daily basis; thus, the urban street has considerable practical value in terms of improving the urban environment to have effective restorative function. Thus, in this study, we explored a method to determine the perceived restorability of urban streets using street view data, deep learning models, and the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), the multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model. We performed an empirical study in the Nanshan District of Shenzhen, China. Nanshan District is a typical high-density city area in China with a large population and limited urban resources. Using the street view images of the study area, a deep learning scoring model was developed, the SegNet algorithm was introduced to segment and classify the visual street elements, and a random forest algorithm based on the restorative factor scale was employed to evaluate the restorative perception of urban streets. In this study, spatial heterogeneity could be observed in the restorative perception data, and the MGWR models yielded higher R 2 interpretation strength in terms of processing the urban street restorative data compared to the ordinary least squares and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models. The MGWR model is a regression model that uses different bandwidths for different visual street elements, thereby allowing additional detailed observation of the extent and relevance of the impact of different elements on restorative perception. Our research also supports the exploration of the size of areas where heterogeneity exists in space for each visual street element. We believe that our results can help develop informed design guidelines to enhance street restorative and help professionals develop targeted design improvement concepts based on the restorative nature of the urban street.

Differentiated factors drive the spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem services in Xinjiang Autonomous Region, China

Exploring the driving factors of changing ecosystem services is critical for supply capacity maintaining and ecological management zoning. Xinjiang of Northwest China, is considered one of the most fragile ecological environment areas. However, studies on how ecosystem services’ driving forces respond to the environmental conditions of Xinjiang are still insufficient, especially in sub–regions with considerable spatial heterogeneity. Based on 106 counties across Xinjiang, we employed models of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) and Revised Wind Erosion Equation (RWEQ) to quantify four essential ecosystem services (carbon storage, habitat quality, and sand fixation and water yield). Then, we investigated the spatial distribution of four ecosystem services and drivers at the county scale in 2020 by using multi–scale geographically weighted regression (MGWR). The results showed that the spatial distribution of ecosystem services is higher in the north and lower in the south, and hotspots and high–value ecosystem services areas were consistent. Precipitation, temperature, and fractional vegetation cover were the dominant factors influencing the four ecosystem services. Therefore, regulating climate and increasing vegetation will maximize the improvement of regional ecosystem services in Xinjiang. Significant differences exist in the counties of the type, intensity, and direction of ecosystem services drivers. The correlation between carbon storage, habitat quality and fractional vegetation cover was more robust stronger in the south. Water yield was more closely related to fractional vegetation cover in southern Xinjiang. Under different ecological and social conditions, the impact of driving forces on ecosystem services showed different changing trends. Three suggestions for improving ecosystem services management were proposed based on our results. The comparative analysis of the driving factors of county ecosystem services in this study will help to formulate differentiated ecological protection policies and promote a sustainable supply of ecosystem services in Xinjiang. In the future, it is necessary to strengthen the long-term monitoring and evaluation of ecosystem services and the research on the interaction of multiple drivers.

Compound impact of COVID-19, economy and climate on the spatial distribution of global agriculture and food security

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to unfold around the world, the per unit area yield of the world's three major crops (i.e. maize, rice and wheat) decreased simultaneously for the first time in 20 years, and nearly 2.37 billion people faced food insecurity in 2020. Around 119–124 million people were pushed back into extreme poverty. Drought is one of the natural hazards that mostly affect agricultural production, and 2020 is one of the three warmest years on record. When the pandemic, economic recession and extreme climate change occur simultaneously, food crisis will often be exacerbated. Due to the limited research on the geographic modelling of crops and food security at the country level, we investigated the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic (COVID-19 incidence and mortality rate), economic (GDP and per capita GDP), climate (temperature change and drought), and their compound effects on three crop yields and food security in the world. On the basis of verifying the spatial autocorrelation, we used the global ordinary least squares model to select the explanatory variables. Then, geographically weighted regression (GWR) and multi-scale GWR (MGWR), were utilised to explore spatial non-stationary relationships. Results indicated that the MGWR was more efficient than the traditional GWR. On the whole, per capita GDP was the most important explanatory variable for most countries. However, the direct threats of COVID-19, temperature change and drought on crops and food security were small and localised. This study is the first to utilise advanced spatial methods to analyse the impacts of natural and human disasters on agriculture and food security in various countries, which can serve as a geographical guide for the World Food Organization, other relief agencies and policymakers to conduct food aid, health and medical assistance, financial support, climate change policy formulation, and anti-epidemic policy formulation.

A Bayesian Implementation of the Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression Model with INLA

The multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model is an important extension of the classical geographically weighted regression (GWR) model that can be used to explore the spatial nonstationarity of the regression relationship in spatial analysis, but also allows for different scales on conditional relationships between response and different predictors. A Bayesian version of the MGWR model is proposed to obtain estimates of the spatially varying coefficients and the bandwidths simultaneously. The hierarchical form of the Bayesian MGWR model has attractive features, including obtaining posterior estimates of the bandwidths and local parameters simultaneously, and their uncertainty can be easily measured. For Bayesian posterior inference, an efficient algorithm based on integrated nested Laplace approximation is introduced to provide a great alternative of the classical Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm under the Bayesian framework. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated through simulation study, and it is shown that the proposed approach can correctly identify the differences between scales of parameter surfaces and also obtain precise posterior estimates. Finally, for illustration, this approach is used to analyze monthly housing cost data in the state of Georgia.

Influences of Spatial Accessibility and Service Capacity on the Utilization of Elderly-Care Facilities: A Case Study of the Main Urban Area of Chongqing

With the unprecedented growth of the elderly population in China, elderly-care facilities (ECFs) are in a fast expansion process. However, limited attention has been paid to the imbalance at the actual utilization level of ECFs. This research aims to reveal the spatial inequity of ECFs and to quantitatively examine the effect of accessibility and institutional service capacity on utilization. Taking Chongqing, China, as the study area, we measured the spatial accessibility of different travel modes by the Gaussian Two-Step Floating Catchment Area (G2SFCA) method and investigated distribution differences in spatial accessibility, service capacity, and utilization of ECFs by the Dagum Gini Coefficient and its decomposition. Then, the impact of spatial accessibility and service capacity on the utilization of regional ECFs was quantified by multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR). The study findings can be summarized as follows. (1) Walking accessibility has the most significant impact on the utilization of ECFs and shows geographic heterogeneity. Developing a pedestrian-oriented network of pathways is essential to enhance the utilization of ECFs. (2) Accessibility by driving and bus-riding does not correlate with regional ECFs utilization, and relevant studies cannot rely on them alone for assessing the equity of ECFs. (3) In the utilization of ECFs, since the inter-regional difference is more significant than the intra-regional difference, efforts to reduce the overall imbalance should be oriented toward inter-regional variation. The study's findings will assist national policymakers in developing EFCs to enhance health indicators and quality of life for older adults by prioritizing financing for shortage areas, coordinating ECFs services, and optimizing road systems.

Spatial Downscaling of Forest Above-Ground Biomass Distribution Patterns Based on Landsat 8 OLI Images and a Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression Algorithm

Forest above-ground biomass (AGB) is an excellent indicator for the health status and carbon sink potential of forest ecosystems, as well as the effectiveness of sustainable forest management practices. However, due to the strong heterogeneity of forest structures, acquiring high-accuracy and high-resolution AGB distributions over wide regions is often prohibitively expensive. To fill the resulting gap, this paper uses part of Lishui city, Zhejiang province as the study area, based on 168 forest sample observations, and proposes a novel integrated framework that combines a multi-scale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) with the co-kriging algorithm to refine the spatial downscaling of AGB. Specifically, optimal predictor variable sets identified by random forest importance ranking, multiple stepwise regression, and Pearson VIF methods were first assessed based on their total explanatory power (R square), followed by reconfirmation of the optimal predictor variable set based on the non-stationarity impact of each variable’s action scale (bandwidth) on the output pattern of AGB downscaling. The AGB downscaling statistical algorithms included MGWR, GWR, random forest (RF), and the ordinary least square (OLS), and their downscaling performances were quantitatively compared to determine the best downscaling method. Ultimately, the downscaled AGB pattern was produced using the best method, which was further refined by considering the spatial autocorrelation in AGB samples by implementing a co-kriging interpolation analysis of the predicted AGB downscaling residuals. The results indicated that the variable set selected by random forest importance ranking had the strongest explanatory power, with a validation R square of 0.58. This was further confirmed by the MGWR analysis which showed that the set of variables produced a more spatially smooth downscaled AGB pattern. Among the set of optimal variables, elevation and aspect affected AGB at local scales, representing a strong spatial heterogeneity. Some textural features and spectral features showed a smooth action scale relative to AGB, showing insignificant spatial scale processes. In the study area with complex terrain, using aspect as a covariant, the co-kriging (CK) model achieved a higher simulation accuracy for the MGWR-predicted AGB residuals than the ordinary kriging model. Overall, the proposed MGWR-CK model, with a final validation R square value of 0.62, effectively improved the spatial distribution characteristics and textural details of AGB mapping without the additional costs of procuring finer satellite images and GIS-based features. This will contribute to the accurate assessment of carbon sinks and carbon stock changes in subtropical forest ecosystems globally.

Spatial Non-Stationarity of Influencing Factors of China’s County Economic Development Base on a Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression Model

The development of the county economy in China is a complicated process that is influenced by many factors in different ways. This study is based on multi-source big data, such as Tencent user density (TUD) data and point of interest (POI) data, to calculate the different influencing factors, and employed a multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model to explore their spatial non-stationarity impact on China’s county economic development. The results showed that the multi-source big data can be useful to calculate the influencing factor of China’s county economy because they have a significant correlation with county GDP and have a good models fitting performance. Besides, the MGWR model had prominent advantages over the ordinary least squares (OLS) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models because it could provide covariate-specific optimized bandwidths to incorporate the spatial scale effect of the independent variables. Moreover, the effects of various factors on the development of the county economy in China exhibited obvious spatial non-stationarity. In particular, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomerations showed different characteristics. The findings revealed in this study can furnish a scientific foundation for future regional economic planning in China.

Examining the spatially varying and interactive effects of green and blue space on health outcomes in Northern Ireland using multiscale geographically weighted regression modeling

Previous studies have mainly examined the independent effects of green or blue space on health from a perspective of spatial homogeneity, which neglects their interactive or spatially varying effects. Here, we examined the spatially varying and interactive effects of green and blue space on health using open access data in Northern Ireland (NI). Aggregate health data was collected from 2017 Northern Ireland Multiple Deprivation Measure at the Super Output Area (SOA) level. Green and blue spaces were extracted from Land Cover Map data. The proportion of grassland and the proportion of woodland for each SOA were calculated as proxies for green space, while the proportion of water bodies was calculated for measuring blue space. Spatially varying effects of green and blue space were modelled using multiscale Geographic Weighted Regression (MGWR). Interaction terms between green and blue spaces were added into the MGWR models to test the interactive association of green and blue space on different health outcomes (e.g., preventable death ratio and cancer registrations). Results indicate that associations were distributed zonally, with green and blue spaces in eastern areas of NI more strongly associated with health outcomes than in western areas. Within these large regional zones, further spatially varying effects of different green and blue spaces were observed. Grassland was generally positively associated with some health outcomes (e.g., less preventable death ratio, cancer registrations ratio, multiple prescriptions ratio, and long-term health problem or disability ratio), while the results of woodland and water body were mixed. Water bodies were found to strengthen the effect of woodland and grassland. The above results indicate that green and blue space have independently and interactive spatially varying associations with different health outcomes in NI. It is also important to combine both green and blue space elements to enhance health impacts in future interventions.

Construction of high-resolution precipitation dataset and its implication to drought over the Tianshan Mountains, China

Understanding the drought characteristics of mountainous areas in northwest China with sparse rainfall stations requires high precision, as well as high-resolution precipitation data. Considering the spatial relationship of precipitation and environmental factors, this study downscales Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) and Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) based on the geographically weighted regression (GWR) and multi-scale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) models integrated with interpolation. A high-resolution (1 km×1 km) precipitation dataset during 1979–2020 is reconstructed in the Tianshan Mountains, and the drought characteristics are analyzed by using the optimal dataset. The results show that: 1) Compared with GWR, MGWR model has higher downscaling accuracy; 2) The optimal MSWEP downscaling dataset (CC = 0.93, |BIAS| = 0.48%) compared to GPM (CC = 0.81, |BIAS| = 1.87%) is closer to the observed precipitation; 3) In the past 40 years, 71% and 9% of the Tianshan Mountains show significant wetting and drying trends respectively, and 16 drought events are identified. 4) The West subregion of the Tianshan Mountains is characterized by low frequency, long duration and high severity of drought events. The characteristics of the East are opposite to those of the West. Occasional extreme drought events occur in the North and South. This paper provides data support and method reference for the study of water-vapor balance and regional ecohydrological process in the arid area of Northwest China.

Analysis of port pollutant emission characteristics in United States based on multiscale geographically weighted regression

The huge fuel consumption of shipping activities has a great impact on the ecological environment, port city environment, air quality, and residents’ health. This paper uses Automatic Identification System (AIS) data records and ship-related data in 2021 coastal waters of the United States to calculate pollutant emissions from ships in 30 ports of the United States in 2021. After calculating the pollutant emissions from ships at each port, the multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model is used to analyze the factors affecting the ship pollutant emissions. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) model is used to investigate the spatial heterogeneity of various factors affecting the characteristics of ship pollutant emissions at different scales. This paper mainly compares the effect of models of GWR and MGWR. MGWR may truly reveal the scale difference between different variables. While controlling the social and economic attributes, the coastline length, container throughput, and population are used to describe the spatial effects of ship pollutant emissions in the United States. The results denote that the distribution trend of ship pollutant emissions has a gap based on various ship types and ports. NOx accounts for the highest proportion of pollutant emissions from port ships, followed by SO₂ and CO. The impact coefficients of coastline length and population on pollutant emissions in port areas are mostly positive, indicating that the growth of coastline length and population will increase pollutant emissions in port areas, while the effect of container throughput is opposite. Relevant departments should put forward effective measures to curb NOx emission. Port managers should reasonably plan the number of ship transactions according to the coastline length of the port.

Black carbon pollution in China from 2001 to 2019: Patterns, trends, and drivers

Based on a near real–time 10 km × 10 km resolution black carbon (BC) concentration dataset, this study investigated the spatial patterns, trend variations, and drivers of BC concentrations in China from 2001 to 2019 with spatial analysis, trend analysis, hotspot clustering, and multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR). The results indicate that Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei, the Chengdu–Chongqing agglomeration, Pearl River Delta, and East China Plain were the hotspot centers of BC concentration in China. From 2001 to 2019, the average rate of decline in BC concentrations across China was 0.36 μg/m3/year (p < 0.001), with BC concentrations peaking around 2006 and sustaining a decline for the next decade or so. The rate of BC decline was higher in Central, North, and East China than in other regions. The MGWR model revealed the spatial heterogeneity of the influences of different drivers. A number of enterprises had significant effects on BC in East, North, and Southwest China; coal production had strong effects on BC in Southwest and East China; electricity consumption had better effects on BC in Northeast, Northwest, and East China than in other regions; the ratio of secondary industries had the greatest effects on BC in North and Southwest China; and CO2 emissions had the strongest effects on BC in East and North China. Meanwhile, the reduction of BC emissions from the industrial sector was the dominant factor in the decrease of BC concentration in China. These findings provide references and policy prescriptions for how cities in different regions can reduce BC emissions.

Spatial Heterogeneity and Regional Clustering of Factors Influencing Chinese Adolescents’ Physical Fitness

There is often significant spatial heterogeneity in the factors influencing physical fitness in adolescents, yet less attention has been paid to this in established studies. Based on the 2018 Chinese National Student Physical Fitness Standard Test data, this study uses a multi-scale, geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model combined with a K-means clustering algorithm to construct a spatial regression model of the factors influencing adolescent physical fitness, and to investigate the degree of spatial variation in the physical fitness of Chinese adolescents from a socio-ecological perspective of health promotion. The following conclusions were drawn: the performance of the youth physical fitness regression model was significantly improved after taking spatial scale and heterogeneity into account. At the provincial scale, the non-farm output, average altitude, and precipitation of each region were strongly related to youth physical fitness, and each influencing factor generally showed a banded spatial heterogeneity pattern, which can be summarized into four types: N-S, E-W, NE-SW, and SE-NW. From the perspective of youth physical fitness, China can be divided into three regions of influence: the socio-economic-influenced region, mainly including the eastern region and some of the central provinces of China; the natural-environment-influenced region, which mainly includes the northwestern part of China and some provinces in the highland region; and the multi-factor joint-influenced region, which mainly includes the provinces in the central and northeastern regions of China. Finally, this study provides syndemic suggestions for physical fitness and health promotion for youths in each region.

Multi-Source Data and Machine Learning-Based Refined Governance for Responding to Public Health Emergencies in Beijing: A Case Study of COVID-19

The outbreak of COVID-19 in Beijing has been sporadic since the beginning of 2022 and has become increasingly severe since October. In China’s policy of insisting on dynamic clearance, fine-grained management has become the focus of current epidemic prevention and control. In this paper, we conduct a refined COVID-19 risk prediction and identification of its influencing factors in Beijing based on neighborhood-scale spatial statistical units. We obtained geographic coordinate data of COVID-19 cases in Beijing and quantified them into risk indices of each statistical unit. Additionally, spatial autocorrelation was used to analyze the epidemic risk clustering characteristics. With the multi-source data, 20 influencing elements were constructed, and their spatial heterogeneity was explored by screening 8 for Multiscale Geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model analysis. Finally, a neural network classification model was used to predict the risk of COVID-19 within the sixth ring of Beijing. The MGWR model and the neural network classification model showed good performance: the R2 of the MGWR model was 0.770, and the accuracy of the neural network classification model was 0.852. The results of this study show that: (1) COVID-19 risk is uneven, with the highest clustering within the Fifth Ring Road of Beijing; (2) The results of the MGWR model show that population structure, population density, road density, residential area density, and living service facility density have significant spatial heterogeneity on COVID-19 risk; and (3) The prediction results show a high COVID-19 risk, with the most severe risk being in the eastern, southeastern and southern regions. It should be noted that the prediction results are highly consistent with the current epidemic situation in Shijingshan District, Beijing, and can provide a strong reference for fine-grained epidemic prevention and control in Beijing.

Impact of Land Use Change on the Habitat Quality Evolution in Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China.

Habitat quality (HQ) is an important indicator to characterize the level of biodiversity and ecosystem services, and can reflect the quality of the human living environment. Changes in land use can disturb regional HQ. Current research mostly focuses on assessing the good or bad quality of regional habitats, and less on the spatial response relationship between land use change and HQ, and even fewer studies on finely distinguishing the impact of land use types on HQ. Therefore, taking Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA) of China as the study area, this paper first analyzes the land use change of study area by using the land use transfer matrix, land use rate model and landscape pattern index, and then combines the InVEST model with the multi-scale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model to build a refined assessment framework to quantitatively assess the spatial and temporal evolution patterns of HQ, and then analyse in detail the spatial response relationship of each land use type change on the impact of HQ. The results showed that from 2000 to 2020, the land use in the TGRA shows a changing state of "urban expansion, cultivated land shrinkage, forest land growth, and grassland degradation". With the change in land use, the habitat quality index (HQI) in the study area showed an " increase first and then decline" change characteristics, and the HQ degradation was more obvious in the areas with intense human activities. The impact of land use change over the past 20 years on HQ in the TGRA has significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity, with changes in paddy and dryland having mainly negative impacts on HQ, and changes in sparse land, shrubland, and medium-cover grassland having mainly positive impacts on HQ. This paper mainly provides a research framework for refined assessment, and the results can provide scientific support for land planning and ecological protection in the TGRA, and the research methods and ideas can provide references for similar research.

Examining the Effects of Socioeconomic Development on Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) in China’s Cities Based on Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis and MGWR Model

Understanding the characteristics of PM2.5 and its socioeconomic factors is crucial for managing air pollution. Research on the socioeconomic influences of PM2.5 has yielded several results. However, the spatial heterogeneity of the effect of various socioeconomic factors on PM2.5 at different scales has yet to be studied. This paper collated PM2.5 data for 359 cities in China from 2005 to 2020, as well as socioeconomic data: GDP per capita (GDPP), secondary industry proportion (SIP), number of industrial enterprise units above the scale (NOIE), general public budget revenue as a proportion of GDP (PBR), and population density (PD). The spatial autocorrelation and multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model was used to analyze the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of PM2.5 and explore the impact of different scales of economic factors. Results show that the overall economic level was developing well, with a spatial distribution trend of high in the east and low in the west. With a large positive spatial correlation and a highly concentrated clustering pattern, the PM2.5 concentration declined in 2020. Secondly, the OLS model's statistical results were skewed and unable to shed light on the association between economic factors and PM2.5. Predictions from the GWR and MGWR models may be more precise than those from the OLS model. The scales of the effect were produced by the MGWR model's variable bandwidth and regression coefficient. In particular, the MGWR model's regression coefficient and variable bandwidth allowed it to account for the scale influence of economic factors; it had the highest adjusted R2 values, smallest AICc values, and residual sums of squares. Lastly, the PBR had a clear negative impact on PM2.5, whereas the negative impact of GDPP was weak and positively correlated in some western regions, such as Gansu and Qinghai provinces. The SIP, NOIE, and PD were positively correlated with PM2.5 in most regions. Our findings can serve as a theoretical foundation for researching the associations between PM2.5 and socioeconomic variables, and for encouraging the coequal growth of the economy and the environment.

Geospatial Modeling of Health, Socioeconomic, Demographic, and Environmental Factors with COVID-19 Incidence Rate in Arkansas, US

The COVID-19 pandemic has posed numerous challenges to human society. Previous studies explored multiple factors in virus transmission. Yet, their impacts on COVID-19 are not universal and vary across geographical regions. In this study, we thoroughly quantified the spatiotemporal associations of 49 health, socioeconomic, demographic, and environmental factors with COVID-19 at the county level in Arkansas, US. To identify the associations, we applied the ordinary least squares (OLS) linear regression, spatial lag model (SLM), spatial error model (SEM), and multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model. To reveal how such associations change across different COVID-19 times, we conducted the analyses for each season (i.e., spring, summer, fall, and winter) from 2020 to 2021. We demonstrate that there are different driving factors along with different COVID-19 variants, and their magnitudes change spatiotemporally. However, our results identify that adult obesity has a positive association with the COVID-19 incidence rate over entire Arkansas, thus confirming that people with obesity are vulnerable to COVID-19. Humidity consistently negatively affects COVID-19 across all seasons, denoting that increasing humidity could reduce the risk of COVID-19 infection. In addition, diabetes shows roles in the spread of both early COVID-19 variants and Delta, while humidity plays roles in the spread of Delta and Omicron. Our study highlights the complexity of how multifactor affect COVID-19 in different seasons and counties in Arkansas. These findings are useful for informing local health planning (e.g., vaccine rollout, mask regulation, and testing/tracing) for the residents in Arkansas.

The COVID-19 Mortality Rate Is Associated with Illiteracy, Age, and Air Pollution in Urban Neighborhoods: A Spatiotemporal Cross-Sectional Analysis.

There are different area-based factors affecting the COVID-19 mortality rate in urban areas. This research aims to examine COVID-19 mortality rates and their geographical association with various socioeconomic and ecological determinants in 350 of Tehran's neighborhoods as a big city. All deaths related to COVID-19 are included from December 2019 to July 2021. Spatial techniques, such as Kulldorff's SatScan, geographically weighted regression (GWR), and multi-scale GWR (MGWR), were used to investigate the spatially varying correlations between COVID-19 mortality rates and predictors, including air pollutant factors, socioeconomic status, built environment factors, and public transportation infrastructure. The city's downtown and northern areas were found to be significantly clustered in terms of spatial and temporal high-risk areas for COVID-19 mortality. The MGWR regression model outperformed the OLS and GWR regression models with an adjusted R2 of 0.67. Furthermore, the mortality rate was found to be associated with air quality (e.g., NO2, PM10, and O3); as air pollution increased, so did mortality. Additionally, the aging and illiteracy rates of urban neighborhoods were positively associated with COVID-19 mortality rates. Our approach in this study could be implemented to study potential associations of area-based factors with other emerging infectious diseases worldwide.