Multipolar Order Research Articles

Israeli foreign policy towards Turkey since 2011: from adverse asymmetry to equivalence?

Abstract Turkey was the first Muslim-majority country to recognise Israel de facto in 1949. Since then, Israeli foreign policy towards Turkey has generated stimulating academic debate, converging around the assumption that Israeli foreign policy towards Turkey is defined by an adverse asymmetry (Bengio in The Turkish–Israeli relationship: Changing ties of Middle Eastern outsiders, 2004 and in Insight Turkey 11(2):43–55, 2009; Inbar in Israel Affairs 11(4):591–607, 2005) that favours Turkey. Israel, it has been argued, has always been in the position of courting Turkey, the senior partner in the relationship. This article challenges this contention. It proposes a new analytical framework that encompasses foreign policy friction, discord and alignment and an integrative approach to examine the strategic, economic, military and energy aspects of Israeli foreign policy towards Turkey. The within-case study methodology employed shows that the confluence among the policies pursued by Israel since 2011—amid regional trends and a shift from a unipolar to a multipolar global order—has prompted a shift in Israeli foreign policy from an adverse asymmetry to an equivalence-based engagement with Turkey.

India, South Korea, and Vietnam: A Triangle of Confidence in the Making

The world today is being pushed closer to a multipolar order by major events in recent times. In facing the ramification of such disruption, many countries have been left with their economies in shambles. Despite the odds, India, South Korea, and Vietnam are the three countries in Asia that have continued to show solid growth throughout the pandemic. Beyond the common economic resilience seen in the present time, the three countries also share mutual defense concerns that trace back to their histories of anti-colonialism. In this paper, we analyze shared features between the three countries that are grounded on the basis of historical anti-colonial struggles, as well as present national security and economic concerns, altogether providing backdrop for a promising three-way alliance.

Energy Dilemmas: Climate Change, Creative Destruction and Inclusive Carbon-Neutral Modernization Path Transitions

ABSTRACT Managing a to-date insufficient transition to low carbon development has proved problematic, with energy crises creating tensions between energy security and economic growth and the avoidance of climate disaster. Drastic reductions in carbon emissions imply creative destruction affecting an existing carbon-intensive model of development, but accelerated obsolescence of existing capital stock reduces energy supply and may adversely affect energy security. This double-sided problem is called an energy dilemma: the existence of a tension between providing secure, reliable and affordable energy, while reducing negative environmental impacts of the use of fossil fuels. A solution requires a major compensating investment push and adoption of new development paths that adequately address the quantity and stability of energy supply, while respecting climate constraints and the development needs of less developed countries. This challenge is interpreted in the light of a succession of industrial revolutions and geoeconomic and geopolitical circumstances. A case is made for an approach that rests not on a market-rational, liberal state but rather on a developmental, or plan-rational, state employing a range of planning, regulatory and market instruments, new modernization paths (“ecological civilization”), “establishing the new before breaking the old,” and cooperation among sovereign states in a new multipolar order.

Multipolarity and the New South–South relations: myth vs. reality

A consensus is emerging among academics regarding the rise of a multipolar world order, defined by the diminishing hegemony of Western powers and the growing power and influence of nations in the Global South. However, consensus on the extent of multipolarity, its metrics, and its implications remains elusive. In this paper, we examine the ‘New South–South relations’ to highlight the growing significance of trade, finance, and cooperation among Southern nations, driven by neoliberal globalization and the rise of emerging powers like China. This phenomenon has created both opportunities and disparities within the Global South, intensifying debates on neo-colonialism, dependency, and development. Using the ‘semi-periphery’ framework, the article examines these shifts, exploring trends in trade, finance, and security, alongside power competition between the US, China, and middle powers, ultimately questioning the stability of the evolving global hierarchy and the limits of the rise of the South.

What Makes Civil Wars Protracted? A Review of Systemic, Organizational & Individual-Level Factors

This study investigates the factors behind the increasing prevalence of intrastate conflicts since World War II, contrasting with the global decline in interstate wars, particularly in the developing world. While advancements in technology, society, and economy have facilitated a reduction in interstate conflicts, intrastate wars have persisted due to a decline in their terminations rather than an increase in their onsets. The study attributes this prolongation to systemic, organizational, and individual-level factors. At the systemic level, processes such as decolonization, Cold War interventions, and the post-Cold War multipolar order has established conditions that foster civil wars, often exacerbated by external interventions driven by power dynamics and competitive interests. Additionally, neoliberal economic policies have fragmented the global economy and marginalized the Global South, fostering the emergence of “regional conflict complexes” reliant on illicit economies. Organizationally, factors such as state capacity, geographical features, and resource availability enhance the resilience of rebel groups, particularly in rugged, resource-rich territories near international borders that facilitate contraband access and enable evasion of state control. Furthermore, the quality of leadership and cohesion within insurgent groups significantly affect conflict duration, as elite manipulation and factionalism can obstruct peace efforts. Lastly, at the individual level, motivations shaped by grievances associated with ethnic, political, or economic marginalization, alongside economic incentives for private gain, largely sustain involvement in armed conflicts. The study concludes that a comprehensive understanding of these complex factors is crucial for developing effective policy strategies to reduce conflict durations, advancing theoretical and practical approaches to civil war resolution.

The new multipolar world order and the south Caucasus

The article will analyze the obvious phenomenon of changing global architecture of world power and domination in the 21st century, which implies the transition from the unipolar dominance of the United States of America to a multipolar world order. In addition, the impact of the mentioned global changes on the South Caucasus region will be discussed. This article aims to analyze the changes from unipolar to multipolar world order in terms of economics, military balance, security, political conditions, and subsequent challenges for the South Caucasus. The South Caucasus region is already facing complex problems caused by the recent changes in global great power politics. The article analyzes in detail the interests of global players in relation to the countries of the South Caucasus region, their actions in the past, present and actions expected from them. The presented article is also important from the point of view that only a few articles and works have been published about the South Caucasus region in the context of the transition from a unipolar system to a multipolar system, but given the current processes in the region, readers' interest in the topic is great.

Adapting Military Doctrines to Shifting Power Dynamics in the International System: Looking Beyond Unipolarity through the Analyses of Charles Kupchan

With the end of the bipolar system at the end of the Cold War, the world order shifted to a unipolar era led by the United States (US). However, with the increase in asymmetric threats and diversity of actors in the aftermath of the 11 September attacks, this stabilization process has given way to uncertainties and multi-vector debates. Charles Kupchan’s work analyses different system transformations from a more structuralist perspective. This article aims to analyze how states determine their military doctrines and strategies in the face of constantly transforming system balances. Within the analytical framework discussed by Kupchan, it is possible to discuss how military doctrines are adapted to the variables of the international system. Many factors are at play here, from regionalism to alliance formations and threat perceptions to actors’ diversity. Kupchan’s “No One’s World” argument leads us to the problem of the opportunities and contradictions that states face in determining their strategic priorities within the framework of the complex structure of the multipolar order, which is this article’s main starting point.

Russian-Iranian Military Cooperation in Syria: A Case Study of Proxy Warfare

This paper discusses Russian-Iranian military cooperation in the Syrian conflict as one of the most significant cases of proxy warfare in the modern world. Coming out from the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings, the Syrian crisis has transformed into a complex theatre of global and regional power plays. The Russia-Iran partnership on mutual resistance to Western supremacy: Russia is trying to hold on to its strategic position in the Middle East, while Iran is striving to create a "Shiite crescent" that would balance out its Sunni competitors. It shows how proxy warfare has evolved to become a kind of war, combining state-level resources with asymmetrical tactics that shift the balance of the battlefield. The multipolar world order, as can be seen in the case of global geopolitics, reflects wider implications of such cooperation and also gives a reason for reflection regarding whether such hybrid alliances are sustainable and may serve as a model for future proxy conflicts. The two have been working to defend the Assad regime against attempts from the West to reform the region that has been thwarting American hegemony and recasting the contours of modern war.

Prethermalization in aperiodically driven classical spin systems.

Periodically driven classical many-body systems can host a rich zoo of prethermal dynamical phases. In this work, we extend the paradigm of classical prethermalization to aperiodically driven systems. We establish the existence of a long-lived prethermal regime in spin systems subjected to random multipolar drives. We demonstrate that the thermalization time scales as (1/T)^{2n+2}, where n is the multipolar order and T is the intrinsic time-scale associated with the drive. In the n→∞ limit, the drive becomes quasiperiodic and the thermalization time becomes exponentially long [∼exp(β/T)]. We further establish the robustness of prethermalization by demonstrating that these thermalization time scaling laws hold for a wide range of initial state energy densities. Intriguingly, the thermalization process in these classical systems is parametrically slower than their quantum counterparts, thereby highlighting important differences between classical and quantum prethermalization. Finally, we propose a protocol to harness this classical prethermalization to realize time rondeau crystals.

China’s Energy Trade with the Middle East: Clean Energy versus Fossil Energy

In the 21st century, China, with its substantial production capacity, has established itself as the “world’s factory,” becoming the world’s second-largest economy and leading exporter. It also needs a large amount of energy to continue its significant production and supplies almost half of the oil it uses from the Middle East. With its rising influence in economy, technology and military, China’s race with the United States has turned into a geopolitical rivalry. The US and the Western world have been imposing trade tariffs to China in several industries in order to limit its development in new technologies and military fields. On the other hand, in a period when the US’s global leadership has been questioned in recent years and discussions on a multipolar world order have been on the rise, China wants to fill the gap of the US in order to advance its global influence. In such a geopolitical and trade climate, China is developing its relations with the Middle East both to secure its energy resources and as new markets where it can sell new technology products such as electric vehicles and solar energy materials. This study examines China’s dependence on Middle Eastern energy resources and, in return, its investments in clean energy products.

How population aging impacts the perception of national security and military spending

In a multipolar world order, the demographic shift resulting from rapid population aging is affecting the fundamental unit of national power—the population—which, in turn, can influence a state’s perception of national security. This article examines the relationship between population aging and national security within the framework of “geriatric peace” by Haas (Int Secur 32(1):112–147, 2007). Utilizing panel data from 150 countries between 1992 and 2021, this study reveals two key findings. First, population aging leads to a relative increase in the priority given to social security over national security, resulting in a crowding-out effect on military spending. Second, the crowding-out effect of population aging on military spending is more pronounced in older countries compared to younger ones. To address potential endogeneity, this study employs instrumental variables (IV) estimation, treating population aging as an independent variable rather than a conditional one.

Shaping the Global Future: The Strategic Influence of the Emerging Global South in the New International Order (2022)

The reconfiguration of the international order in 2022 signifies a pronounced shift in global power dynamics, with the ascendant Global South increasingly asserting itself as a transformative force in redefining governance structures and economic paradigms. This study interrogates the pivotal role of emerging economies across Africa, Asia, and Latin America in contesting the entrenched hegemony of the Global North. It foregrounds the expanding influence of multilateral coalitions such as BRICS, the G20, and various regional alignments, which collectively champion a more equitable and multipolar global order. Central to this inquiry is an examination of how these states strategically deploy economic cooperation, South-South trade, and alternative financial architectures to assert their geopolitical agency on the international stage. Furthermore, the analysis delves into the nuanced geopolitical manoeuvres these nations employ to navigate an increasingly complex global landscape marked by intensified great power rivalry, economic volatility, and emergent security challenges. Through a rigorous examination of case studies, this research posits that the Global South is transitioning from a reactive posture to a proactive role in forging a new international paradigm centred on inclusivity, sustainability, and diversified leadership. The findings suggest that the collective ascendancy of these nations heralds a pivotal transformation in global relations, with far-reaching consequences for the trajectory of global governance. Received: 21 August 2024 / Accepted: 5 November 2024 / Published: 20 November 2024

The return of nuclear great power politics (or why we stopped worrying about terrorists and the bomb)

Abstract With the decline of the Western framing of the war on terror (WoT) in security discourse, it has become commonplace to note the ‘return’ of great power politics. But under-analysed so far have been the nuclear dimensions of this trend. This is important because we are on the cusp of a multipolar order where the ‘poles of power’ are nuclear-armed. We outline the ways in which almost 30 years of perceptions of unipolarity, and particularly the focus on ‘rogue’ and non-state (nuclear) terrorism post 9/11 on the part of Western policy practitioners, analysts, and scholars, allowed for the previous focus on the threat of nuclear war to be supplanted by a wider ‘nuclear security’ agenda. We unpack the return of nuclear threats and risk-taking in the Euro-Atlantic, the nuclear deterrence balance in the Western Pacific, and the emergence of a non-aligned nuclear great power in the Global South. While we argue that managing the dangers of the return of nuclear great power politics will require a dual approach drawing lessons from both from the Cold War ‘balance of terror’ and from an earlier era of a multipolar ‘balance of power’, many key dynamics from the WoT years remain.

Reconceptualising Security-development Paradigm: A Critical Analysis of Chinese ‘Development Peace Model’ in the Middle East

In recent years, China has emerged as a significant player in the intersection of international security and development in the Middle East. This development coincides with a decline in the enduring dominance of the US in the region’s security and development affairs. In contrast, China has pursued a cautious, impartial and novel concept of zero enemy policy with regional states. While existing research has explored Chinese economic engagement in the Middle East, literature focusing on the ‘Development Peace Model’ in relation to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) remains limited. This article aims to provide a critical analysis of how China’s pursuit of a multi-polar world order, based on principles of neutrality and partnership for promoting stability through the ‘Development Peace Model’, offers an alternative approach to ‘Liberal Democratic Peace’ in the Middle East. Furthermore, the article examines why Middle Eastern states are receptive to China’s ‘Development Peace Model’ as they seek to address their economic crises.

Minilateralism and global governance: effectiveness of hybrid models

ABSTRACT The liberal world order is showing signs of disarray: two recent catastrophes in adjoining parts of the world (the Middle East and South Caucasus) have opened the fissures of the international governance gap; and the continuing ramifications of COVID-19 have already paralysed the world. On top of this post-pandemic disquietude, multiple conflicts this year are either in danger of precipitating or wars have already re-ignited over long-standing continuing conflicts, highlighting the failure of international governance institutions, including the UN system. In recent years, one of the central responses to the multilateral failures at multiple levels has been for states to form ‘narrower’ and ‘more flexible’ frameworks called ‘minilaterals’. Thus minilateralism has been contrasted through the lens of receding multilateralism, which has been a long-standing hallmark of the American-led liberal international order. This paper examines how far global governance would be dependent on minilateralism by exploring this growing trend in the Indo-Pacific and explores how minilateralism models can enhance international governance structures. This paper also attempts to analyse whether minilateralism is a product of regional fragmentation, or whether it can reinvigorate the comatose multilateralism. Then this paper posits that minilateralism helps rejig the chaotic multipolar order and thus re-invent global governance.

Resilience of DBI screened objects and their ladder symmetries

Scalar field theories with a shift symmetry come equipped with the K-mouflage (or kinetic screening) mechanism that suppresses the scalar interaction between massive objects below a certain distance, the screening radius. In this work, we study the linear response of the scalar field distribution around a screened (point-like) object subject to a long range external scalar field perturbation for the Dirac-Born-Infeld theory. We find that, for regular boundary conditions at the position of the particle, some multipoles have vanishing response for a lacunar series of the multipole order ℓ for any dimension. Some multipoles also exhibit a logarithmic running when the number of spatial dimensions is even. We construct a ladder operator structure, with its associated ladder symmetries, formed by two sets of ladders that are related to the properties of the linear response and the existence of conserved charges. Our results exhibit a remarkable resemblance with the Love numbers properties of black holes in General Relativity, although some intriguing differences subsist.

BRICS Expansion: A Geopolitical Triumph of Partner Countries

The BRICS organization is making significant and consistent progress in its development. The 15th BRICS Summit was held in Johannesburg from 22 to 24 August 2023. This summit is a global event that sets the trends and guiding principles for future economic policies. Four of the five BRICS member countries are among the ten largest countries in the world in terms of GDP, territory and population. According to open sources, the total area of the BRICS countries is 39.7 million square kilometers (26.7% of the world’s land surface), and the population is estimated at3.2 billion people (41.5% of the world’s population). The economic potential of BRICS, as the leading economic organization in the world, is more than significant. These competitive advantages in the economy and financial sphere represent an enormous resource of industrial, human and technological potential that can serve as the locomotive of the global economy. Following the conclusion of the above summit, the leaders of the BRICS countries adopted the final “Johannesburg-2” declaration, which noted the advisability of using their countries’ respective national currencies in international trade and collectively resolving problems related to international debt. In addition, decisions were made to expand BRICS and admit new member states to the organization. BRICS has established itself as a prominent entity on the global stage, whose influence in world affairs is consistently strengthening. The strategic course of their unification is aimed at planning for the future and meets the interests of the leading nations of the international community, the so-called world majority. By acting cohesively on the principles of equality, partnership support and mutual consideration, the BRICS member countries are effectively addressing the most pressing issues on the global and regional agenda. The BRICS member states are strongly in favor of the establishment of a multipolar world order that is based on international law and is fair. At the same time, they are committed to adhering to the fundamental principles of the United Nations Charter. BRICS is the most important guarantor of the legal foundations of international relations and a fair world order in general. The recent expansion of the BRICS group is a significant event that enables the group to have an even greater influence in international affairs. The presented article analyzes the features of the recent expansion of BRICS and its impact on world geopolitics, taking into account the admission of new states to the organization. The distinctive features of the BRICS group activities and its role in relation to the G7 and G20 are revealed. The trends in the transition to a multipolar world are discussed. Furthermore, issues of political and economic cooperation between the different BRICS member countries are analyzed.

PROMISING DIRECTIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RUSSIAN-MONGOLIAN RELATIONS FROM THE POINT OF VIEW OF CIVILIZATIONAL POLITICAL SCIENCE

Russia’s current confrontation with the collective West forces us to pay attention to the countries of the East, in whose fate Russia once played a key role and which, unfortunately, it has decided one day to leave. One such power is Mongolia. The history of Russian-Mongolian relations is a clear illustration of the influence of the civilizational factor on the course of political processes. In order to take into account this factor for more effective development of bilateral relations at the current stage, it is necessary to identify the main directions of bilateral cooperation development, resorting both to the analysis of key bilateral political and legal regulatory documents and the provisions of the civilizational approach, which is the purpose of this article.Using the methodology of civilizational political science, the article examines and defines the main and possible directions for the development of RussianMongolian relations in the near future, identifies the main problems and suggests ways to solve them. Special emphasis is placed on those areas of cooperation that can be considered «civilizational». Interaction through public diplomacy is considered. It establishes the need to involve representatives of business, a number of government departments, as well as the public in order to achieve significant results. The inertia and inconsistency in the attitude of the Mongolian side towards bilateral projects are stated, the contours of the problem of Mongolia’s benevolent neutrality towards the countries of the Third Neighbor, and above all the United States, are determined. Based on the results of the study, the prospects of using the civilizational factor in the development of bilateral relations between Russia and Mongolia and the role it can play in the formation of a multipolar world order are assessed. The conclusion is made about how effective Russia’s return to Mongolia and strengthening of the Russian presence can be when giving bilateral relations a new civilizational dimension. It is specified that the fundamental acts of the two countries, which determine the main directions of foreign policy and build the contours of national security, can serve as a basis for this.

Dynamic Jahn-Teller effect in the strong spin-orbit coupling regime

Exotic quantum phases, arising from a complex interplay of charge, spin, lattice and orbital degrees of freedom, are of immense interest to a wide research community. A well-known example of such an entangled behavior is the Jahn-Teller effect, where the lifting of orbital degeneracy proceeds through lattice distortions. Here we demonstrate that a highly-symmetrical 5d1 double perovskite Ba2MgReO6, comprising a 3D array of isolated ReO6 octahedra, represents a rare example of a dynamic Jahn-Teller system in the strong spin-orbit coupling regime. Thermodynamic and resonant inelastic x-ray scattering experiments, supported by quantum chemistry calculations, undoubtedly show that the Jahn-Teller instability leads to a ground-state doublet, resolving a long-standing puzzle in this family of compounds. The dynamic state of ReO6 octahedra persists down to the lowest temperatures, where a multipolar order sets in, allowing for investigations of the interplay between a dynamic JT effect and strongly correlated electron behavior.

Evaluating the Impact of the Stride Model on India's Economic Development and Global Competitiveness by 2047

The study analyses the prospective influence of India's STRIDE model on its economic advancement and international competitiveness by 2047. The approach, concentrating on Startups, Technology and Innovation, Research and Development, Infrastructure, Deployment and Adoption, and Skill Enhancement and Capacity Building, seeks to propel India's global leadership, innovation, and economic resilience within a competitive and multipolar international order. Harmonising STRIDE's pillars with national and global objectives would bolster domestic economic expansion and establish India as a significant participant in the international sphere, fostering a balanced and inclusive global economy by 2047.