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Abstract
ABSTRACT Managing a to-date insufficient transition to low carbon development has proved problematic, with energy crises creating tensions between energy security and economic growth and the avoidance of climate disaster. Drastic reductions in carbon emissions imply creative destruction affecting an existing carbon-intensive model of development, but accelerated obsolescence of existing capital stock reduces energy supply and may adversely affect energy security. This double-sided problem is called an energy dilemma: the existence of a tension between providing secure, reliable and affordable energy, while reducing negative environmental impacts of the use of fossil fuels. A solution requires a major compensating investment push and adoption of new development paths that adequately address the quantity and stability of energy supply, while respecting climate constraints and the development needs of less developed countries. This challenge is interpreted in the light of a succession of industrial revolutions and geoeconomic and geopolitical circumstances. A case is made for an approach that rests not on a market-rational, liberal state but rather on a developmental, or plan-rational, state employing a range of planning, regulatory and market instruments, new modernization paths (“ecological civilization”), “establishing the new before breaking the old,” and cooperation among sovereign states in a new multipolar order.
Published Version
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