Multiple Structural Breaks Research Articles

Dynamic association of stock market volatility, foreign portfolio investment and macroeconomic indicators by taking the impact of structural breaks

In an asymmetric information environment, investors diversify their investments to minimize risk and maximize their wealth. Such diversification ranges from one market to another market and from one country to another country. Investors prefer foreign portfolio investment over foreign direct investment because of the economy's turmoil, changes in macroeconomic indicators, and market liberation. This study analyzes the dynamic relationship among stock market volatility, foreign portfolio investment, and macroeconomic indicators (foreign exchange rate, interest rate, and Gross Domestic Product) using the dynamic long-run Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model concerning the Pakistan environment. This study also considers the impact of multiple structural breaks, representing variables' endogenous and exogenous shocks. The secondary data is used from Oct. 01, 2009, to Sept. 30, 2019, with monthly frequency. The results indicate a co-integration between SMV, FPI, FXR, IR, and GDP. In short-run analyses, the error correction term is statistically significant, while in the long run, the SMV, FPI, and FXR are not impacted. As no evidence of volatility has been found between SMV and FPI, unidirectional or bi-directional policies can be devised to further attract the new FPI for strengthening the foreign reserves, the balance of payments, and other macroeconomic variables. Additionally, investors should update their knowledge based on considering the endogenous and exogenous shocks on the SMV.

Towards Sustainable Development: Revisiting the Middle-Income Trap Hypothesis for the Southern Common Market Countries

One of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nations is to promote, sustained, inclusive, and sustainable economic growth. However, it is observed that many countries struggle to move up from the middle-income to high-income level, which refers to the middle-income trap (MIT). In this paper, we test the MIT hypothesis using a novel unit root test of Gómez-Zaldívar et al. (2013) across the Southern Common Market (MECOSUR) countries. To do so, we follow a different path from the existing literature and use a novel unit root testing strategy. We first test the significance of the trend term and then examine the unit root properties of the series by allowing multiple structural breaks according to the existence/non-existence of the trend term. Our results provide evidence of stationarity for Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru, indicating that these four MERCOSUR countries are in MIT.

Tax Reforms, Structural Breaks, and Dynamics of Tax Revenue in Fiji

ABSTRACT: The changing dynamics of tax revenue and its responses to domestic and external shocks play a pivotal role in the discussion of the sustainability of public finance in small developing economies. However, the empirical literature on the response of tax revenue to various shocks in developing economies in the Pacific is sparse. Despite several tax reforms over the last decade, the spending plans of the Fijian government since the 2017/2018 budget announcements have stimulated frequent public discussions regarding the sustainability of public debt. Against this background, the main purpose of this paper is to investigate the response of tax revenue in Fiji - a small developing island economy, to external and domestic shocks using historical annual data covering more than five decades. This study uses unit root tests that account for single and multiple endogenous structural breaks and finds that tax revenue in Fiji is a non-stationary process, I (1) with break dates coinciding with tax reforms, general elections, and political coups. The findings reveal that tax reforms and political developments are possible important sources of shocks to tax revenue and have important policy implications. First, shocks to tax revenue will have persistent effects, with the effects of adverse shocks being transmitted to other related variables and sectors of the Fijian economy. Second, historical values of tax revenue cannot be used to formulate forecasts of tax revenue and policymakers should consider other determinants of tax revenue (for example, the share of the agriculture sector, trade volume, political stability, education, life expectancy, infant mortality rates, age composition of the population, urbanization, inflation rate, and corruption) for forecasting purposes. The evidence of non-stationarity indicates that future studies on tax revenue need to carefully reflect on the modeling technique to avoid spurious regressions. Furthermore, our findings reveal that temporary fiscal measures will not have a permanent effect on tax revenue and sustainable revenue growth requires focusing on long-term (rather than short-sighted) reforms. Thus, our findings underscore the importance of evidence-based policy reforms to improve the resilience, efficiency, and sustainability of the tax system in Fiji to shelter it from future adverse shocks.

Investors’ reactions on the publication of integrated reports. Evidence from European stock markets

The last decades brought to stock market investors’ attention several key issues regarding companies’ activity, besides the financial statements. These issues, such as environmental, social, or corporate governance policies are nowadays included in integrated reports issued by many listed companies worldwide. Although these topics seem to currently attract a high interest in the media, our study’s aim is to determine whether the listed firms’ release of Integrated Reports has any bearing on the issuers’ performance on the capital market as assessed by market value, return, and risk. In this respect, we analysed three different stock market time series’ reactions – daily close prices, daily logarithmic returns, and risk measured by the Expected Shortfall – to the publication of integrated reports, for a sample of 48 companies, listed on various European stock markets. In order to identify any sudden changes in the analysed time series behaviour, immediately after the publication date, we used the Bai-Perron multiple structural breaks test. Our results show that no consistent, significant reactions occur within the analysed time series immediately after the publication of integrated reports, but only isolated, circumstantial reactions seem to appear. Moreover, it seems that the markets show common significant reactions to certain events, marked by major structural breaks, but none of these events could be related to the publication of integrated reports. Within this context, our paper manages to prove that although it currently constitutes a hot topic worldwide, integrated reporting is not a key feature in the investors’ short-term decisionmaking process.

The sustainability of current account in the BRICS countries depends on economic policies’ support to structural adaptation

This study undertakes a descriptively comprehensive and statistically robust assessment of the sustainability of current account (CA) and solvency of intertemporal budget constraint (IBC) in the BRICS countries. The long-run model estimated in one-regime setting with no structural break and in sample-split setting with multiple structural breaks provides dominant support to the sustainability of CA and solvency of IBC. The policy makers in the countries with surpluses in CA, such as China and Russia, need to manage upward pressure on domestic currency, encourage domestic investment, and seek opportunities for outward FDI. The central bank interventions in FOREX market, accompanied by both short-term portfolio and long-term direct investments overseas, would help relieve upward pressure on domestic currency and make productive use of foreign exchange reserves. The policy focus in the countries with deficits in CA, such as Brazil, India and South Africa, should be to accelerate productivity, boost exports, bolster saving, and implement fiscal consolidation to ensure the sustainability of CA and solvency of IBC.

The role of technological innovation in fostering environmental quality in South Africa: Fresh evidence from the novel dynamic ARDL simulations approach

This study revisits the role technological innovation plays in fostering environmental quality in South Africa over the period 1960-2020. Unlike the previous studies, the work employs the novel dynamic autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) simulations framework to assess the positive and negative changes in technological innovation, scale effect, technique effect, for- eign direct investment, energy consumption, urbanization, industrial growth, and trade open- ness on CO2 emissions. Second, the paper uses the Squalli &Wilson (2011)'s innovative meas- ure of trade openness to overcome the limitations associated with the conventional trade in- tensity. Third, the study uses the frequency domain causality (FDC) approach developed by Breitung & Candelon (2006) to robustly capture permanent causality for long, short, and me- dium-term associations among the variables examined. Fourth, the paper employs the second- generation econometric procedures, which take into account the multiple structural breaks considerably overlooked by previous works. For South Africa, our empirical results reveal that: (i) technological innovation contributes to lower CO2 emissions in the short- and long run; (ii) while technique effect improves environmental quality, the scale effect largely con- tributes to escalate CO2 emissions, thus confirming that the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis holds; (iii) urbanization, industrial value-added, foreign direct investment and energy consumption increase CO2 emissions; (iv) trade openness contributes to worsen environmental degradation in the long run; (v) scale effect, technique effect, technological innovation, energy consumption, foreign direct investment, trade openness, urbanization, and industrial growth Granger-cause CO2 emissions in the short, medium and long run showing that these variables are fundamental to determine environmental quality. In light of our em- pirical evidence, this paper suggests that South Africa's government and policymakers could consider the role of technological innovation as a clean source of technology in achieving energy security and fostering environmental quality in the country.

Exploring the tourism markets’ convergence hypothesis in South Korea

This paper examines the tourism markets’ convergence hypothesis across South Korea’s major source markets. In doing so, we use monthly data of visitor arrivals over the period July 1995 to June 2019 and adopt a novel quantile unit root tests that allows for multiple structural breaks via a Fourier expansion series. Our results indicate that seven countries out of 10 show firm convergence tendencies at most of the quantiles, and two countries have weak but significant converging trends at some quantiles.

The Determinants of Forest Products Footprint: A New Fourier Cointegration Approach

This study aims to determine the factors that affect the forest products footprint (FPF) in Brazil during the period 1965–2018 by proposing a new cointegration test which augments the Engle-Granger cointegration test with a Fourier function (Fourier Engle-Granger) and allows multiple structural breaks in the long-run relationship. Since the results of the unit root tests show that all variables are nonstationary, we applied the Fourier Engle-Granger cointegration test and revealed that there was a long-term relationship between the forest products’ footprint, energy consumption, gross domestic product, and trade openness. Although energy consumption was found to have a decreasing effect on FPF, the remaining variables were found to have a healing effect on FPF. Policymakers in Brazil should consider shifting energy consumption to clean energy sources and sustain international trade and economic growth in the current form to consider the FPF.

Testing the Mediating Role of Fiscal Policy in the Environmental Degradation in Portugal: Evidence from Multiple Structural Breaks Co-integration Test

Testing the Mediating Role of Fiscal Policy in the Environmental Degradation in Portugal: Evidence from Multiple Structural Breaks Co-integration Test

Firm-level business uncertainty and the predictability of the aggregate U.S. stock market volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic

In this paper, we analyze the predictive role of firm-level business expectations and uncertainties derived from a panel survey of U.S. 1750 business executives from 50 states for the realized variance (sum of daily squared log-returns over a month) of the S&P500 index over the monthly period of September 2016 to July 2021. Unlike standard models, our predictive framework adopts a time-varying approach due to the existence of multiple structural breaks in the relationship between volatility and the predictors in the model, which in turn leads to statistically insignificant causal effects in a constant parameter set-up. Our time-varying results suggest that the predictive power of firm-level business uncertainty is concentrated during the early part of the sample associated with the U.S.-China trade war and towards the end of our data coverage in the wake of the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Since in-sample predictability does not guarantee the same over an out-sample, we also conducted a full-fledged forecasting exercise to show that subjective expectations and uncertainties associated with sales growth rates and employment produce statistically significant predictability gains over January 2020 to July 2021, given an in-sample of September 2016 to December 2019. Our results suggest that subjective measures of business uncertainty at the firm level indeed capture predictive information regarding aggregate stock market uncertainty, which has important implications for investors and economic projections at the policy level.

Price Transmission: The Case of the UK Dairy Market

The UK milk market has faced major economic difficulties over the last 20 years, seeing the smallest milk producers exit the industry. The key objective of this study is to examine price transmission within the UK milk market to understand the market’s efficiency and influences. An Augmented Dickey–Fuller unit root test identified all the examined series were stationary at the first difference. A modified Dickey–Fuller test allows for levels and trends that differ across a single break date and Bai–Perron test identified multiple structural breaks, including January 2012, July 2015, and November 2017. The Johansen cointegration test identified one cointegrating factor. The Error Correction Model results identified that prices would regain equilibrium at 14%, roughly 7 months after a price shock. Granger Causality identified the producer to granger cause retailer prices. The Threshold Autoregressive model suggests the dataset is symmetric. Econometric research into the UK’s liquid milk market is limited. As such, this study will provide an understanding as to whether current econometric policies are working, alongside the potential to aid the improvement or development of new policies while the UK exits the EU. Additionally, this study includes structural breaks as previous studies have failed to do so, which has led to a mixture of results.

Multiple structural break estimations for linear regression with dependent observations

Multiple structural break estimations for linear regression with dependent observations

Current Account Sustainability of South Africa with Regime Shifts

Purpose This study investigates the sustainability of current account with possible regime shifts in South Africa. Design/methodology/approach The study makes use of an annual data spanning from 1980 to 2021, the data is collected from International monetary fund. To ensure the order of integration of variables, the study used Fourier LM unit root test and Minimum LM unit root test. The study uses maki cointegration test with multiple structural breaks to examine the long run relationship between the variables in the presence of structural breaks. Findings Maki cointegration test confirmed a long run relationship between exports and imports of goods and services. The results indicate that the current account sustainability of South Africa is weakly. Research limitations/implications This study did not consider the effect of nonlinearities in the modelling processes. Another drawback of this study is that it did not use frequency analysis such as wavelet /Fourier transform since the current account can be affected by volatilities in the domestic and global markets. Therefore, for future studies it will be better if they overcome the limitations of this study. Originality/value This study focuses specifically on the issue of current account sustainability, taking into consideration the possible consequences of structural changes brought about by South Africa's prior economic crises. In addition, this study recommends the devaluation of currency for South Africa to ensure that the exports always exceed imports or the improvement in the current account deficit.

Segment regression model average with multiple threshold variables and multiple structural breaks

AbstractWe propose a new model averaging approach to investigate segment regression models with multiple threshold variables and multiple structural breaks. We first fit a series of models, each with a single threshold variable and multiple breaks over its domain, using a two‐stage change point detection method. Then these models are combined together to produce a weighted ensemble through a frequentist model averaging approach. Consequently, our segment regression model averaging (SRMA) method may help identify complicated subgroups in a heterogeneous study population. A crucial step is to determine the optimal weights in the model averaging, and we follow the familiar non‐concave penalty estimation approach. We provide theoretical support for SRMA by establishing the consistency of individual fitted models and estimated weights. Numerical studies are carried out to assess the performance in low‐ and high‐dimensional settings, and comparisons are made between our proposed method and a wide range of existing alternative subgroup estimation methods. Two real economic data examples are analyzed to illustrate our methodology.

Revisiting Immigration - Unemployment Relationship in Europe

Immigration is a controversial and vital issue that has become an acute problem for countries facing cultural and economic difficulties resulting from it, and unemployment is at the forefront of these difficulties. According to theory, migration causes unemployment; thus, the causality relationship between migration and unemployment is empirically ex- amined in our study. For this purpose, we used a new test known as the Panel Fourier Toda-Yamamoto (PFTY) method for the period 1990-2019, which contributes to the existing literature from a methodological standpoint. This test allows investigating multiple structural breaks, cross-section dependence and country heterogeneity. Our first test results show that when we use the Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) test, the causal relationship is confirmed neither for any country nor the entire panel. However, when we employ the PFTY test, we reach causality runs from migration to unemployment for the entire panel and four countries.

Testing Multiple Structural Breaks in the Oil price-Stock Price Nexus during the Russia-Ukraine War in Asian Oil-Importing Countries

Testing Multiple Structural Breaks in the Oil price-Stock Price Nexus during the Russia-Ukraine War in Asian Oil-Importing Countries

Cointegration Analysis of Triple Deficits: An Indicator Saturation Approach

The objective of this study to examine the econometric technique of the triple deficit’s hypothesis in the existence of multiple structural breaks. Triple deficit theory is a put forward by expanding the twin deficit theory, to recognize the private deficit together with the trade deficit and budget deficit and to investigate the relationship among these under the Keynesian approach. The annual time series data has been used from 1975 to 2020. This study has applied econometric techniques that captured the impact of multiple structural breaks in the series. In this study we used the saturation approach (impulse indicator saturation and step indicator saturation) for multiple structural breaks and equilibrium correction model (EqCM) for cointegration analysis. Results concluded that in the static equilibrium correction model there has been a positive relationship between fiscal-deficit, private deficit, and trade-deficit in the existence of multiple breakpoints. In the dynamic equilibrium correction model, there exists a positive relationship both in (short-term and long-term) between budget-deficit, private deficit, and trade deficit in the presence of three-step indicators. Therefore, to control the deficits government should make such type of policies that mitigates the effects of structural breaks, and this will atomically reduce the adverse effects of shocks to the trade sector and financial sector.

Are COVID-19-Related Economic Supports One of the Drivers of Surge in Bitcoin Market? Evidence from Linear and Non-Linear Causality Tests

The aim of this study was to investigate the causal relations between COVID-19 economic supports and Bitcoin markets. For this purpose, we first determined the degree of the integration of variables by implementing Fourier Augmented Dickey–Fuller unit root tests. Then, we carried out both linear (Bootstrap Toda–Yamamoto) and non-linear (Fractional Frequency Flexible Fourier form Toda–Yamamoto) causality tests to consider the nonlinearities in variables, to determine if the effects of multiple structural breaks were temporary or permanent, and to evaluate the unidirectional causality running from COVID-19-related economic supports and the price, volatility, and trading volume of Bitcoin. Our study included 158 countries, and we used daily data over the period from 1 January 2020 and 10 March 2022. The findings of this study provide evidence of unidirectional causalities running from COVID-19-related economic supports to the price, volatility, and trading volume of Bitcoin in most of the countries in the sample. The application of non-linear causality tests helped us obtain more evidence about these causalities. Some of these causalities were found to be permanent, and some of them were found to be temporary. The results of the study indicate that COVID-19-related economic supports can be considered a major driver of the surge in the Bitcoin market during the pandemic.

Empirical Investigation of Real Exchange Rate between Pak Rupee and US Dollar Employing Markov Switching-AR Model

This study empirically investigates real exchange rate between Pak Rupee and US Dollaremploying a two state Markov Switching-AR Model. Bai-Perron test for multiple structural breaks foundthree structural breaks in the series. Estimation results of Markov Switching-AR model reveal that if thereal exchange rate is in state one, its probability of staying in same state in the next period is greaterthan 99 percent whereas switching to second state is 0.7 percent. Whereas, if real exchange rate is instate two, its probability of staying to the same state is 99 percent and its probability of switching to stateone in the next period is less than 0.6 percent.

Smooth structural changes and common factors in nonstationary panel data: an analysis of healthcare expenditures†

This article suggests new panel unit root tests that allow for multiple structural breaks and control for cross-correlations in the panel. Breaks are modeled with a Fourier function, which allows for smooth or gradual change rather than abrupt breaks. Cross-correlations are corrected by using the PANIC procedure. The simulations show that our tests have good size and power properties and perform reasonably well when the nature of breaks or the factor structure is unknown. The new panel unit root tests support fresh evidence on the persistence of healthcare expenditures in OECD countries.