Multiple Spells Research Articles

Career breaks, broken pensions? Long-run effects of early and late-career unemployment spells on pension entitlements

AbstractUnemployment periods and other career breaks have long-term scarring effects on future labour market possibilities, permanently affecting workers' retirement income and standard of living as pensioners. Previous literature has focused on the impact of job loss on working careers with little attention to its impact on pension wealth, particularly the extent to which longevity heterogeneity amplifies unemployment scars. This paper investigates the effect of single and multiple unemployment spells on the lifetime pension entitlements of earnings-related contributory pension schemes, considering the timing and duration of breaks, alternative lifecycle labour earnings profiles, scarring and restoration effects on labour market re-entry, the existence of pension credits and pension accruals for periods spent outside the labour market, longevity heterogeneity, and the accumulation and decumulation redistributive features of the pension scheme. Pension entitlements are estimated using a backward-looking simulation approach based on the actual Portuguese public pension system rules and stylized labour market profiles identified in the SHARE Job Episodes Panel data using a sequence analysis. Longevity heterogeneity is modelled using a stochastic mortality model with a frailty model. Our results show that the timing and duration of unemployment periods is critical, that scarring effects amplify pension wealth losses, that minimum pension provisions, pension credits and pension scheme redistributive features can partially mitigate the impact of unemployment periods on future entitlements, and that the presence of positive correlation between lifetime income and longevity career breaks can amplify the asymmetry in the distribution of pension entitlements across income groups.

A Review and Morphological Study of Lobetus Kiesenwetter, 1852 (Coleoptera: Cantharidae)

The genus LobetusKiesenwetter, 1852 (Coleoptera: Cantharidae) is currently weakly defined and distinguished from PseudolobetusChampion, 1915 by various combinations of secondary sexual characters of males, like modifications on antennae and forelegs, in such a way that there is no distinctive feature for Lobetus. In this paper, Lobetus is reviewed, seven new species are described (L. angustapicalis, L. bilamellatus, L. bilobatus, L. constantini, L. impressicornis, L. platycornis and L. violaceipennis) and a new identification key for males is presented. A new set of features is introduced and the conflicting morphological traits are compared among members of Lobetus and Pseudolobetus. As a result, Lobetus is synonymized with Pseudolobetussyn. nov. and its diagnosis is expanded to include the new circumscribed species. New combinations are proposed for Lobetus championi (Gorham, 1881) comb. nov., L. major (Gorham, 1881) comb. nov., and L. tibialis (Brancucci, 1981) comb. nov., and a lectotype is designated for L. lemoulti Pic, 1913. The case of the multiple original spellings Lobetus torticornis and L. torticollis is addressed, and the validity of the former name is reaffirmed. New distributional records are presented for species previously known only from their type series, representing new country records and greatly extending the distribution of the genus. The distribution of all the 23 currently valid species is summarised in a map. The validity of the characters assigned to Lobetus, the internal relationships of the species and the comparison with closely related genera are discussed based on comparative morphology, aiming to provide insights for a future systematic reassessment of Lobetus.

Neural spelling correction: translating incorrect sentences to correct sentences for multimedia

The aim of a spelling correction task is to detect spelling errors and automatically correct them. In this paper we aim to perform the Korean spelling correction task from a machine translation perspective, allowing it to overcome the limitations of cost, time and data. Based on a sequence to sequence model, the model aligns its source sentence with an ‘error filled sentence’ and its target sentence aligned to the correct counter part. Thus, ‘translating’ the error sentence to a correct sentence. For this research, we have also proposed three new data generation methods allowing the creation of multiple spelling correction parallel corpora from just a single monolingual corpus. Additionally, we discovered that applying the Copy Mechanism not only resolves the problem of overcorrection but even improves it. For this paper, we evaluated our model upon these aspects: Performance comparisons to other models and evaluation on overcorrection. The results show the proposed model to even out-perform other systems currently in commercial use.

Survival of Formula One Drivers

ObjectivesTo examine the determinants of the duration time of drivers in the Formula One (F1) competition, which is an industry with high physical capital investment and requires labor with very high human capital.MethodsSince estimates may be biased when the whole F1 history, starting with the 1950 season, is considered, unlike prior studies in the literature, this article limits its data set to racing seasons from 1981 to 2017. In addition, since the failure times are correlated within the drivers with multiple spells, single‐spell methods used in prior studies underestimate true standard errors and produce inflated test statistics. Hence, the most appropriate approach for the duration analysis of F1 drivers would be the survival analysis for recurrent events, which is employed in this study.ResultsOnce a driver exits F1, he survives for a shorter period of time if he returns. In order to survive longer, a driver has to perform better than his teammate. Each year of age decreases the probability of exit while drivers can increase their duration time in F1 by switching teams. Completing a race does not make any difference to survival but finishing a race on the podium lowers the probability of exit.ConclusionTeam owners and managers should be cautious when they consider hiring a driver who exited F1 before. A driver should be at least better than his teammate in order to survive in F1. Drivers can also increase their chances of survival substantially by changing teams.

SUN-929 An Unusual Presentation of Insulinomas-Profound Hypophosphatemia

BACKGROUND: Insulin induces intracellular shift of phosphorus, causing hypophosphatemia. This is mild, transient and quiescent in normal persons. Persistent hyperinsulinemia in patients with depleted phosphorus stores can cause profound symptomatic hypophosphatemia. Clinical Case: A 36yr old man with MEN 1 presented in follow-up. His original manifestation of MEN 1 was familial primary hyperparathyroidism (pHPT) for which he had parathyroidectomy in 2009. At one of his endocrine clinic visits, he was noted to have asymptomatic hypophosphatemia with serum phosphorus of 2.4 (2.7–4.5 mg/dL) and mildly elevated PTH of 89 (9–77 pg/mL). This was presumed to be due to mild persistent/recurrent pHPT, and he was advised to increase dietary phosphorus intake. About a year later, he presented to the emergency room (ER) with palpitations and marked asthenia. Serum phosphorus was 1.0. He was treated with intravenous phosphorus and discharged on oral phosphorus replacement with advice to increase his dietary phosphate intake. Despite this, he continued to have recurrent spells of dizziness, weakness, palpitations, and marked hypophosphatemia several requiring repeat ER visits. His degree of mild pHPT remained stable and imaging studies to identify a possible cause for tumor induced osteomalacia with phosphate wasting was unrevealing. He volunteered at a follow up visit that he had a long history of low blood sugar spells (confirmed by fingerstick) that he had learnt to manage with frequent carbohydrate rich snacks. This prompted the consideration of a possible insulinoma as the cause for his persistent hypophosphatemia. Despite significant hypoglycemia on an abbreviated supervised fast, an OGTT and mixed meal test showed profound severe insulin mediated hypoglycemia. CGMS also showed multiple extended early morning severe hypoglycemic spells <50mg/dl over a 2 wk period. Multiple imaging tests were negative but a Gallium Dotatate scan revealed multiple areas of uptake in his pancreas. Endoscopic ultrasound of the pancreas demonstrated multiple masses in the pancreas: one 7 x 5 cm mass in the body and one 4 x 4 cm mass near the neck of the pancreas. Fine needle aspiration biopsy revealed well-differentiated neuroendocrine tumors. He had distal pancreatectomy and tumor enucleation of 5 tumors identified on intraoperative sonography. Histopathology confirmed multiple neuroendocrine tumors, with immunostaining for insulin. He has had no further episodes of hypophosphatemia since despite being off oral phosphate supplements. Conclusion: Profound hypophosphatemia can be the dominant presentation of persistent hyperinsulinemia seen in patients with insulinoma. Insulinomas and other causes of persistent hyperinsulinemia need to be considered in the differential diagnosis of persistent/recurrent hypophosphatemia.

A nested copula duration model for competing risks with multiple spells

A copula graphic estimator for the competing risks duration model with multiple spells is presented. By adopting a nested copula structure the dependencies between risks and spells are modelled separately. This breaks up an implicit restriction of popular duration models such as multivariate mixed proportional hazards. It is shown that the dependence structure between spells is identifiable and can be estimated, in contrast to the dependence structure between competing risks. Thus, by allowing these two components to differ, the model is not identifiable. This is an important finding related to the general identifiability of competing risks models. Various features of the model are investigated by simulations and its practicality is illustrated by an application to unemployment duration data.

Joint Modeling of Multivariate Survival Data With an Application to Retirement

The Cox proportional hazards model has been pervasively used in many social science areas to examine the effects of covariates on timing to an event. The standard Cox model is intended to study univariate survival data where there is a singular event of interest, which can only be experienced once. However, we may additionally wish to explore a number of other complexities that are prevalent in survival data. For example, an individual may experience events of the same type more than once or may experience multiple types of events. This study introduces innovations in recurrent (repeatable) event analysis, jointly modeling several endogenous survival processes. As an example and an application, we simultaneously model two types of recurrent events in the presence of a dependent terminal event. This model not only correctly handles different types of recurrent events but also explicitly estimates the direction and magnitude of relationships between recurrences and survival. This article concludes with an example of the model to examine how the timing of retirement is associated with the risks of multiple spells of employment and childbearing. The theoretical discussions and empirical analyses suggest that the multivariate joint models have much to offer to a wide variety of substantive research areas.

Uncovering Multidimensional Poverty Experiences in Shaping Children’s Socioemotional Trajectories during the First 6 Years of Schooling

The extant literature has attested to the importance of poverty on child well-being generally using a unidimensional approach. Researchers have yet to establish solid evidence on how multiple dimensions of poverty (e.g., depth, volatility, and spells of exposure) might be associated with children's socioemotional well-being during their early school years. Building upon Bronfenbrenner's bioecological systems theory, this study used latent class analysis to identify poverty patterns by incorporating multiple dimensions of poverty and investigated the relationship between multidimensional poverty patterns and children's socioemotional trajectories from kindergarten through fifth grade. Using the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 1998-1999 (ECLS-K), a longitudinal dataset featuring a nationally representative cohort of children in the United States (N≈20,090), the analysis identified seven poverty groups. Each group exhibited a unique poverty or economic pattern that incorporates the three poverty dimensions. Growth-curve results indicate that multidimensional poverty patterns were significantly associated with externalizing and internalizing behaviors both at kindergarten and over time by fifth grade. Children with the acutest form of economic deprivation-extreme poverty, volatile income, and multiple spells of poverty exposure-were reported to have the worst outcomes. The significant variations in children's socioemotional trajectories due to different poverty patterns highlight the importance of poverty reduction and prevention strategies corresponding to those patterns for optimal effect. This study suggests a focus not just on helping families exit poverty temporarily, but on improving their economic security as a way to nurture children's socioemotional well-being.

Epilepsy in spinocerebellar ataxia type 8: a\xa0case report

BackgroundSpinocerebellar ataxia type 8 is an uncommon genetic condition and presents with gait disturbances, ataxia, dysarthria, nystagmus, and cognitive and psychiatric abnormalities. Seizures are extremely uncommon in the spinocerebellar ataxias and have been reported only once before in a patient with spinocerebellar ataxia type 8. This case report highlights the need to evaluate spells in patients with a known neurodegenerative or genetic disease to exclude seizures, and it stresses the importance of timely diagnosis and therapy.Case presentationThe patient was a 22-year-old Caucasian woman with known spinocerebellar ataxia 8 since age 10 years. She was admitted to our hospital with new-onset left hemiparesis and encephalopathy in addition to chronic occurrence of multiple spells of confusion and oromanual automatisms with postictal lethargy. Testing confirmed that she was having recurrent seizures with episodes of nonconvulsive status epilepticus. Urgent treatment with antiepileptic therapy was initiated; her seizures resolved shortly thereafter, and her mental status improved. Her left hemiparesis has improved; she remains seizure-free; and she has returned to her baseline antiepileptic medications following physical therapy.ConclusionsSeizures have been reported extremely rarely in association with spinocerebellar ataxia 8, but they must be considered in the differential diagnosis of patients with spells of altered awareness, especially in those with a known neurodegenerative or genetic condition. Clinicoradiological correlation with symptoms can help expedite diagnosis and treatment. Expert consultation with epileptologists at the earliest signs can help establish the diagnosis quickly, minimize morbidity, and enhance recovery.

Roman-Urdu News Headline Classification with IR Models using Machine Learning Algorithms

Objectives: Roman-Urdu consider as a non-standard language used frequently on the Internet. To classify text from article tagging on Roman-Urdu is such difficult task because of many irregularities in spellings, for example, the word khubsurat (beautiful) in Roman-Urdu has multiple spellings. It can also be written as khoobsurat, khubsoorat, and khobsorat. Methods/Statistical Analysis: In this study, we scrap Roman-Urdu language news headline from various online newspapers. Our corpus contains 12319 news headlines which contain seven categories i.e. Accident, Sports, Weather, Arrest, Conference, Operation and Violence. We also use different preprocessing approaches like Roman-Urdu Stop words and apply IR models i.e. TF-IDF and Count Vector for feature extraction before applying classifier algorithms. Findings: We also compare results between different Machine Learning algorithm such as RF, LSVC, MNB, LR, RC, PAC, Perceptron, NC, SGDC and NC. Our model predicts best result to identify desire class on SGD classifier which gives 93.50% accuracy. Application/ Improvements: It is recommended that SGD Classifiers should be used in roman-Urdu news headline text classification. Keywords: Linear SVC, Multinomial Naïve Bays (MNB), Ridge Classifier (RC), Random Forest, Roman-Urdu, Supervised Machine Learning, Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD), Text Classification, Tf-Idf

Does participation in global value chains extend export duration?

AbstractThis paper investigates the relationship between participation in global value chains (GVCs) and export duration based on a model of discrete‐time proportional hazards. The econometric analysis relies on the merged data of Chinese Annual Survey of Industrial Firms (CASIF) database and Chinese Customs Trade Statistics (CCTS) database over the period from 2000 to 2013. Empirical results suggest that participation in GVCs could positively extend export duration and is robust to various specifications, including the samples with multiple spells, measurement error, and the alternative measure of participation in GVCs. Further studies based on heterogeneous variables demonstrate that the improvement of product quality, asset‐specific investment, and product diversity for enterprises participating in GVCs could positively extend export duration. This paper contributes to our understanding of how participation in GVCs affects export duration based on firm heterogeneity. Our results may have important implications for enterprises wishing to avoid export risks.

Nomenclatural studies toward a World List of Diptera genus-group names.Part VI: Daniel William Coquillett.

The Diptera genus-group names of Daniel William Coquillett are reviewed and annotated. A total of 136 available genus-group names in 53 families of Diptera are listed alphabetically, and for each name giving author, year and page of original publication, originally included species, type species and method of fixation, current status of the name, family placement, and a list of any emendations of it that have been found in the literature. Remarks are given to clarify nomenclatural or taxonomic information. In addition, an index to all the species-group names of Diptera proposed by Coquillett (1,218, of which 1,214 are available names) is given with bibliographic reference (year and page) to each original citation. Appended to this study is a full bibliography of Coquillett's published works. Name found to be unavailable: Philhelius Coquillett, 1910. Name found not to be preoccupied: Petia Coquillett, 1910 [Tachinidae]. Corrections to and clarifications of type species designations are made for the following: Isostomyia Coquillett, 1906 [Culicidae]; Micraedes Coquillett, 1906 [Culicidae]; Roederiodes Coquillett, 1901 [Empididae]; Stilbometopa Coquillett, 1899 [Hippoboscidae]; Tinolestes Coquillett, 1906 [Culicidae]. Previous First Reviser actions for multiple original spellings missed by previous workers include: Ateloglossa Coquillett, 1899 [Tachinidae]; Boreodromia Coquillett, 1903 [Brachystomatidae]; Mythicomyia Coquillett, 1893 [Mythicomyiidae]. The following are new synonymies of their respective senior synonyms: Acemyia Coquillett, 1897b under Acemya Robineau-Desvoidy, 1830, n. syn. [Tachinidae]; Clytiomyia Coquillett, 1897b under Clytiomya Rondani, 1861, n. syn. [Tachinidae]; Linnaemyia Coquillett, 1897b under Linnaemya Robineau-Desvoidy, 1830, n. syn. [Tachinidae]; Xanthogramma Schiner, 1860 under Philhelius Stephens, 1841, n. syn. [Syrphidae]. Using Reversal of Precedence (ICZN Code Art. 23.9), Scriptotricha Cockerell, 1889 [Tephritidae] is declared a nomen oblitum and Paracantha Coquillett, 1899f [Tephritidae] is declared a nomen protectum.

Spell-out, Chains, and Long Distance Wh-movement in Seereer

Author(s): Baier, Nicholas | Abstract: In this paper, I examine novel data from long distance wh-dependencies in Seereer, an Atlantic language of Senegal. Seereer long distance wh-questions are characterized by (a) the presence of an obligatory pronoun at the edge of each embedded clause and (b) the presence of special morphology on each verb along the path of the extraction. Thus, Seereer provides striking evidence that long distance wh-movement proceeds successive cyclically through the edge of each clause. I argue that this verbal morphology spells out a valued wh-probe on C, which triggers the movement of a wh-phrase to its Spec. I show that the pronouns present at the edge of each embedded clause have the properties of copies and not of resumptive pronouns, and argue that they are in fact spelled out intermediate copies of the moved wh-phrase. I propose that such multiple copy spell out is possible precisely because they enter into a feature valuation relationship with C. Specifically, I propose that valuation of an wh-probe defines a copy as the head of an A’-chain. Thus, the application of successive cyclic movement does not result in one long chain, but instead in a series of smaller chains. This view of the structure of long A’-chains, when combined with the independently motivated principle of spelling out the heads of chains, results in the pattern of multiple copy spell out that occurs in Seereer.

A study of heavy snowfall in Kashmir, India in January 2017

Kashmir valley witnessed multiple heavy snowfall spells in January 2017 that triggered an avalanche, killing 24 people, including 20 Indian Army Personnel, whose camp was struck by the avalanche. This study aims to present an analysis of the heavy snowfall events that occurred the majority of districts in Kashmir during January 2017 using station data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Results show that there were three episodes of intense snowfall over different parts of Kashmir. Maximum daily accumulated snowfall measurements of about 11.5 and 9.2cm were recorded at Pahalgam and Banihall stations, respectively, on 26 January 2017. Gulmarg also recorded a maximum daily accumulated snowfall of 8.8cm on 25 January 2017. The snowfall anomaly data show that Gulmarg, Srinagar, Kupwara, Banihall, Quazigund and Pahalgam witnessed the highest snowfall of recent decades. Gulmarg and Pahalgam recorded cumulative snowfall measurements of about 38.4 and 30cm, respectively, during January. Data from the region reveal that the accumulated snow from three episodes of intense snowfall during 6–8, 15–17 and 25–27 January 2017 resulted in an avalanche over Kashmir.

Morpho-phonemic analysis boosts word reading for adult struggling readers

A randomized control trial compared the effects of two kinds of vocabulary instruction on component reading skills of adult struggling readers. Participants seeking alternative high school diplomas received 8 h of scripted tutoring to learn forty academic vocabulary words embedded within a civics curriculum. They were matched for language background and reading levels, then randomly assigned to either morpho-phonemic analysis teaching word origins, morpheme and syllable structures, or traditional whole word study teaching multiple sentence contexts, meaningful connections, and spellings. Both groups made comparable gains in learning the target words, but the morpho-phonemic group showed greater gains in reading unfamiliar words on standardized tests of word reading, including word attack and word recognition. Findings support theories of word learning and literacy that promote explicit instruction in word analysis to increase poor readers’ linguistic awareness by revealing connections between morphological, phonological, and orthographic structures within words.

Effect of Health on Retirement of Older Americans: a Competing Risks Study

Retirement is an important event in the life of an individual. The decision to retire or exit from full-time employment may be motivated by several factors, including health. This paper explores the effect of both subjective and relatively more objective physical and mental health conditions on the probability of exit from full-time employment. Using longitudinal data on older Americans from ten waves of the Health and Retirement Study (1992–2010), eight health indices are created from a wide range of health measures by principal component analysis. The effect of these health indices on the time until exit from full-time employment is empirically examined in a proportional hazard model. Single and competing risk specifications are estimated that allow for multiple spells of full-time employment and control for unobserved heterogeneity. The main results suggest that better self-reported health decreases the likelihood of exit from full- time employment, while poor physical health (functional limitations factor) increases the likelihood of exit from full-time employment via complete retirement and disability. For mental health, I find that depression increases the likelihood of exit via complete retirement, part-time work and unemployment while cognitive disorders lead to an increase in likelihood of exit via the disability exit route. Hence, physical and mental health problems are both impediments to continued work. These results have implications for public policies targeted towards retaining older workers within the labor market.

Micro‐level dynamics of social assistance receipt: Evidence from four European countries

This study investigated the monthly dynamics of social assistance benefit receipt – in particular the incidence of long‐term benefit receipt – in four European countries: Luxembourg, The Netherlands, Norway and Sweden. The analysis is based on four separate administrative panel data sets, each covering the 96‐month period from January 2001 to December 2008. Benefit dynamics were found to vary considerably across countries. In the two Nordic countries, long‐term benefit receipt was found to be a rare exception. Most recipients, however, had multiple spells and the majority of benefit leavers returned to benefits within a few months of leaving. In Luxembourg and The Netherlands, long‐term benefit receipt was frequent, but benefit leavers were much less likely to return to benefit receipt after exit. The total duration of benefit receipt per individual across spells was two to three times as high in The Netherlands and Luxembourg as in Norway and Sweden.

Path dependent and heterogeneity effects in investment risk ratings: A cross-country evidence

Countries that have endured similar levels of financial or economic crisis and responded with corresponding levels of effort often do not recover or attract investment at the same rate. I examine a panel of monthly observations on investment risk ratings for 145 countries between 1984 and 2015 to determine what causes the differences in durations before an upgrading or a downgrading of a country’s investment risk ratings. Using duration models with random effects, which take into account the multiple spells and ranked exits, allows estimations of the stepwise exit rates from each rating category. After controlling for key time-varying indicators such as GDP growth, political and financial ratings, and trade openness, I find that each of the following contributes to the differences in the duration and exit in investment risk ratings across countries and rating categories: (i) path-dependent effects specific to each level of rating; (ii) country- characteristics based on education attainment, geography, history and culture, and (iii) remaining heterogeneity effects that include the graders’ subjective assessments.

Impact of Community College Student Debt Levels on Credit Accumulation

Most community college students do not borrow to pay for their education. However, in recent years more students are borrowing and, when they borrow, accumulating large amounts of debt. To help clarify whether increased debt burdens are aiding community college students or harming them, we explore the impact of borrowing on academic credit hour accumulation. Using data from the Education Longitudinal Study 2002–2012, we provide multiple estimates of the impact of borrowing on credit hour attainment among community college students. Standard estimates suggest that community college students who borrow complete fewer credit hours than students who do not borrow, although the influence is relatively small (about two credits two years after enrollment). Instrumental variables estimates suggest that the impact of borrowing on credits attained is not significant two years after enrollment but is substantial eight years after enrollment (allowing students multiple enrollment spells).

How Do Unemployed Workers Behave Prior to Retirement? A Multi-State Multiple-Spell Approach

We examine the behaviour of unemployed older workers up to five years prior to the point at which they can transition out of unemployment because they become eligible to receive pension benefits. We use a unique dataset covering the unemployment histories (longitudinal data) of individuals born between 1940 and 1965 who were registered with any of the public employment offices in Poland. Thus, we study a whole population of individuals who experienced this type of transition over the time period 1996-2015. We examine the transition from unemployment to retirement as a multi-year process. We analyse multiple unemployment spells, identify transition pathways, and look for patterns in these transitions. Moreover, we estimate a conditional risk set model (a stratified Cox model). Our research proves that being close to the point at which they are eligible to receive pension benefits leads individuals 'wait' to fulfil these eligibility criteria.