Multiple Spells Research Articles

Empirical Monte Carlo evidence on estimation of timing-of-events models

This article builds on the Empirical Monte Carlo simulation approach to study the estimation of Timing-of-Events (ToE) models. We exploit rich Swedish data of unemployed job seekers with information on participation in a training program to simulate placebo treatment durations. We first use these simulations to examine which covariates are key confounders to be included in dynamic selection models for training participation. The joint inclusion of specific short-term employment history indicators (notably, the share of time spent in employment), together with baseline socio-economic characteristics, regional and inflow timing information, is important to deal with selection bias. Next, we omit subsets of explanatory variables and estimate ToE models with discrete distributions for the ensuing systematic unobserved heterogeneity. In many cases, the ToE approach provides accurate effect estimates, especially if time-varying variation in the unemployment rate of the local labor market is taken into account. However, assuming too many or too few support points for unobserved heterogeneity may lead to large biases. Information criteria, in particular those penalizing parameter abundance, are useful to select the number of support points. A comparison with other duration models shows that a Stratified Cox model performs well with abundant multiple spells but less well when multiple spells are uncommon. The standard Cox regression model performs poorly in all configurations as it is unable to account for unobserved heterogeneity.

Persistency of catastrophic out-of-pocket health expenditures: Measurement with evidence from three African countries - Malawi, Tanzania, and Uganda

Catastrophic out-of-pocket health expenditure (CHE) remain high in Sub-Saharan Africa and may not conform to the sporadic random pattern of acute illnesses that shapes insurance arrangements intended to avoid the risk of financial loss. The persistency of CHE remains a largely unexplored issue due to the lack of relevant methods and scarcity of panel data. This paper addresses the first shortcoming by presenting three different approaches to incorporating the timeframes into the analysis, considering dynamics between two periods, average over time and the recurrence of CHE incidence. Through the application of the complementary approaches, we identify (i) those at risk of persistent CHE in the short-term; (ii) those facing transient versus persistent CHE in the long-term; and (iii) those facing multiple CHE spells. The methods are applied to different definitions of CHE using panel data from three sub-Saharan countries: Malawi (3 waves: 2010, 2013, and 2016) with 4983 observations; Tanzania (3 waves: 2008, 2010, and 2012) with 8715 observations; and Uganda (5 waves: 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013, and 2015) with 6475 observations. All datasets are balanced panels. Additionally, we employ empirical strategies to identify the underlying factors contributing to these persistent and relatively high OOP. Across the three countries, we find that at least 27% of the people facing CHE in one period, because they spent more than 5% of their household budget on health out-of-pocket, will face it again in the next period. The lower-bound risk for those spending more than 10% of their household budget is 9% and for those spending more than 25% of their household capacity to pay is 13%. Between 11% and 45% of the population incurred CHE at least twice during the observation period when using the 5% budget definition of CHE. The double recurrence rate ranges between 7% and 13% when using the 25% capacity-to-pay definition and between 3% and 20% when using the 10% budgetshare definition. Between 22% and 32% of the population experienced chronic CHE at the 5% of the budgetshare definition (6%–10% at the 10% of the budgetshare definition of CHE; 2%–11% at 25% of capacity-to-pay). Our panel regression analysis consistently highlights the susceptibility of certain groups to face persistence CHE, notably those residing in rural areas, individuals with lower levels of education, the elderly, and those who have undergone hospitalizations.

Do temporary help agencies help? Employment transitions for low-skilled workers

We investigate the impact of working for a temporary help agency (THA) compared to being directly hired on the employment transitions of low-skilled male temporary workers aged 20 to 45. Using data from Spanish administrative records, we employ competing risk discrete-time duration models to analyze multiple temporary employment spells. Our analysis reveals the importance of accounting for short-duration dependence and workers’ unobserved heterogeneity. We find that, across all durations, agency workers are more likely to transition either to unemployment or to a new THA contract than their direct-hire counterparts. Transitions to permanent positions, although infrequent in our sample, are also more likely for agency workers. Our qualitative findings hold when unobserved heterogeneity is not controlled for. However, this model underestimates the effect of agency contracts on the risk of entering unemployment and overestimates the impact on the probability of re-entering THA. This suggests that positive self-selection plays a relevant role in explaining the higher persistence of THA employment, but not the associated higher risk of unemployment.

Exploring extreme flood events of a western state of India during monsoon season of 2019 from space

Maharashtra experienced a series of calamitous flood events during July and September months of monsoon season of 2019 affecting millions of people. Mumbai, Palghar, Thane, Raigad, Satara, Sangli, Pune and Kolhapaur were most affected districts of Maharashtra. Near real time satellite observations from space have been used in this study to monitor these events. Availability of accurate precipitation information at very fine resolution of 5 km (half hourly) from a rainfall model that integrates observations from multi-spectral satellite sensors offers an excellent opportunity to monitor flood events effectively. Utility of this model was tested by investigating flood events of Kedarnath in 2013, Jammu and Kashmir in 2014 and Tamil Nadu in 2015. This model was also used to explore recent flood events of Kerala and Assam in 2019.
 Mumbai, Palghar, Thane, Raigad, Satara, Sangli, Pune and Kolhapaur districts received very heavy rainfall from multiple rain episodes during first, third and last week of July, and second and last week of September that resulted in heavy flooding over these districts. Results reveal that few of these districts received cumulative rainfall in excess of 2000 mm from multiple heavy rainy events during July to September. Mumbai, Palghar, Thane and Raigad received a cumulative rainfall in excess of 1700 mm during July and September. Sangali district received an excess of about 200% rainfall than average monthly rain during July 2019. Heavy cumulative rainfall from multiple rain spells resulted in heavy flooding over various districts of Maharashtra. Results reported in this study highlight the importance of mitigation and adaptation strategies against flood disasters. 

Sikujua’s Writing of Muyaka’s Poetry in Arabic Script

Abstract Muyaka’s poetry as it is known today was first recorded in the 1890s, mainly written down by Mwalimu Sikujua who used Arabic script as well as an adapted Swahili-Arabic writing system to document the language. Sikujua’s versatility when using the Arabic script as well as his use of variant spellings suggest a writing practice that embraces rather than avoids orthographic variation. His use of diacritics including the shadda and hamza is particularly noteworthy. Muyaka’s poems with their frequent repetitions as well as the writing of the poet’s name feature multiple spellings by Sikujua even when applying the adapted Swahili-Arabic script. Sikujua invented solutions that best approach a Swahili pronunciation but he also displays a detailed understanding and creative use of a wide range of Arabic signs and diacritics. The complexities of writing Swahili with Arabic script benefit from Sikujua’s creativity. It is this versatility and creativity that has been largely ignored and misinterpreted as merely inconsistent in studies where standardization is considered preferable.

Effects of floods on the mental health of Pakistanis: a commentary.

Over the years, worsening climate change has led to multiple spells of heavy rain and floods in Pakistan, with the 2022 floods ranked as the deadliest in world history. To top it off, decades of political instability, mental health stigma, and lack of psychological support have tipped the after-effects over the edge. These floods have taken a toll on more than 13000 people, with inaccessibility to vital necessities leading to further deaths every week. Local and international support is imminent for better handling of the crisis and reducing the incidence of post-traumatic stress disorders and other mental health-related issues.

Epilepsy diagnosis using a clinical decision tool and artificially intelligent electroencephalography

ObjectiveTo construct a tool for non-experts to calculate the probability of epilepsy based on easily obtained clinical information combined with an artificial intelligence readout of the electroencephalogram (AI-EEG). Materials and MethodsWe performed a chart review of 205 consecutive patients aged 18 years or older who underwent routine EEG. We created a point system to calculate the pre-EEG probability of epilepsy in a pilot study cohort. We also computed a post-test probability based on AI-EEG results. ResultsOne hundred and four (50.7%) patients were female, the mean age was 46 years, and 110 (53.7%) were diagnosed with epilepsy. Findings favoring epilepsy included developmental delay (12.6% vs 1.1%), prior neurological injury (51.4% vs 30.9%), childhood febrile seizures (4.6% vs 0.0%), postictal confusion (43.6% vs 20.0%), and witnessed convulsions (63.6% vs 21.1%); findings favoring alternative diagnoses were lightheadedness (3.6% vs 15.8%) or onset after prolonged sitting or standing (0.9% vs 7.4%). The final point system included 6 predictors: Presyncope (−3 points), cardiac history (−1), convulsion or forced head turn (+3), neurological disease history (+2), multiple prior spells (+1), postictal confusion (+2). Total scores of ≤1 point predicted <5% probability of epilepsy, while cumulative scores ≥7 predicted >95%. The model showed excellent discrimination (AUROC: 0.86). A positive AI-EEG substantially increases the probability of epilepsy. The impact is greatest when the pre-EEG probability is near 30%. SignificanceA decision tool using a small number of historical clinical features accurately predicts the probability of epilepsy. In indeterminate cases, AI-assisted EEG helps resolve uncertainty. This tool holds promise for use by healthcare workers without specialty epilepsy training if validated in an independent cohort.

Déjà-lu: When Orthographic Representations are Generated in the Absence of Orthography.

When acquiring novel spoken words, English-speaking children generate preliminary orthographic representations even before seeing the words' spellings (Wegener et al., 2018). Interestingly, these orthographic skeletons are generated even when novel words' spellings are uncertain, at least in transparent languages like Spanish (Jevtović et al., 2022). Here we investigate whether this process depends on the orthographic rules of the language, and specifically, whether orthographic skeletons for words with uncertain spellings are generated even when the probability of generating an incorrect representation is high. Forty-six French adults first acquired novel words via aural instruction and were then presented with words' spellings in a self-paced reading task. Importantly, novel words were presented in their unique (consistent words) or one of their two possible spellings (preferred and unpreferred inconsistent words). A significant reading advantage observed for aurally acquired words indicates that participants indeed generated orthographic representations before encountering novel words' spellings. However, while no differences in reading times were found for aurally acquired words with unique and those presented in their preferred spellings, unpreferred spellings yielded significantly longer reading times. This shows that orthographic skeletons for words with multiple spellings were generated even in a language in which the risk of generating an incorrect representation is high. This finding raises a possibility that generating orthographic skeletons during spoken word learning may be beneficial. In line with this conclusion is the finding showing that - in interaction with good phonological short-term memory capacity - generating orthographic skeletons is linked to better word recall.

Name2Vec: Name Matching using Character-based with Deep Learning

Name matching plays a crucial role in big data and various integration applications, being indispensable when consolidating information from diverse sources. This encompasses tasks such as deduplication, data linkage systems, search engines, text and web mining, information extraction, and more. Discrepancies and anomalies in names, including syntax variations like abbreviations, typographical errors, occasional whitespace omissions, word insertions, deletions, and even multiple spellings for the same name, can lead to missed matches. In previous methodologies, a predefined penalty scheme was often employed for each differing character or multi-character token between two strings. This research introduces Name2Vec, an algorithm that addresses name matching using a neural network model to capture name semantics. This approach advances by suggesting a suitable feature set through the fusion of Name2Vec and character-based name representations. The empirical findings of this research confirm that this performance enhancement improves matching efficiency while simultaneously reducing misclassifications compared to state-of-the-art methods.

An investigation of white matter properties as they relate to spelling behaviour in skilled and impaired readers

ABSTRACT We examined the extent to which white matter is related to spelling behaviour in adults with skilled vs. impaired literacy skills. Adults (N = 30; 17 skilled) completed a battery of spelling tasks and underwent a brain scan to measure diffusion properties of white matter tracts, namely the arcuate fasciculus, inferior longitudinal fasciculus, inferior frontal occipital fasciculus and uncinate fasciculus. Regression analyses and between groups tests of correlation strength were run. Results While the inferior longitudinal fasciculus was more strongly related to spelling behaviour in skilled adults, the uncinate fasciculus was more strongly related to spelling behaviour in impaired adults. We found strong left lateralization of the arcuate fasciculus and inferior longitudinal fasciculus in both groups. However, lateralization of the inferior frontal occipital fasciculus was more strongly related to spelling response time behaviour in skilled adults, whereas lateralization of the uncinate fasciculus was more strongly related to spelling accuracy behaviour in the impaired adults. Conclusion This study provides some useful information for understanding the underlying white matter pathways that support spelling in skilled and impaired adults and underscore the advantage of adopting multiple spelling tasks and outcomes (i.e., response time and accuracy) to better characterize brain-behaviour relationships in skilled and impaired adults.

Analyzing Dynamic Multiple Spell Durations Using Counting Processes

Analyzing Dynamic Multiple Spell Durations Using Counting Processes

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BackgroundSubacute sclerosing panencephalitis (SSPE) is a progressive neurological disorder of children and young adults that affects the central nervous system (CNS). It is a slow, but persistent, viral infection caused by defective measles virus. Dissociation in a case of SSPE is rare, so is very difficult to diagnose as the symptoms mimics neurobehavioural changes often seen in SSPE.Case PresentationThe child, 11yrs old girl, student, brought with complaints of pain in lower limbs from last 4 months and 3 episodes of unconsciousness & abnormal behaviour from last 3 months. Semiology- pain in lower limbs→ pricking sensation in LL→whole body→loss of consciousness→tightening of all 4 limbs. All episodes were precipitated by some stress at home. Also she had become irritable and there were multiple spells of anger outburst from last 3 months. There is a past h/o measles at 4 yrs. of age and fever f/b 1 episode of fits at 5 yrs. of age. EEG showed rademaker complexes & Antinuclear antibody IIF was positive both s/o SSPE.ResultsChild has been prescribed Tab Sodium Valproate 400mg and Tab. Aripiprazole 5mg along with JPMR exercises and coping skill training. Parents were taught contingency management principles after which she showed good improvement.DiscussionWill be done at the time of presentation.

Успешный исход беременности и родов после хирургического лечения аденомы гипофиза в I триместре (клиническое наблюдение)

The authors present a clinical case of partial hypopituitarism developed in a 31-year-old patient during the first trimester of pregnancy after the surgical treatment of hemorrhagic pituitary adenoma. The onset of the diseases was recorded on the 12th week of pregnancy and was characterized by such specific clinical manifestations as severe headache, multiple spells of vomiting, diplopia and right-sided ptosis. The contrast-enhanced MRI revealed a pituitary adenoma with a "fresh" hemorrhage and the destruction of anterior wall and floor of the sella turcica, and the invasion into the sphenoid and right cavernous sinuses. The patient underwent emergency surgery – the endoscopic endonasal approach for total resection of pituitary adenoma. Hypopituitarism manifestations identified in the postoperative period were relieved by hormone replacement therapy. A timely diagnosis and prompt decision on the surgical treatment of pituitary adenoma, as well as a multidisciplinary team approach to patient care ensured the appropriate management of the underlying disease, successful pregnancy, childbirth outcome and high maternal quality of life. KEYWORDS: pituitary adenoma, pregnancy, management practices, hemorrhage, pituitary apoplexy, hypopituitarism, surgical treatment. FOR CITATION: Barakina O.V., Markova T.N., Ismailova S.G. et al. Successful pregnancy and delivery outcome after the surgical treatment of pituitary adenoma in the first trimester of pregnancy (a clinical case). Russian Journal of Woman and Child Health. 2022;5(4):326–331 (in Russ.). DOI: 10.32364/2618-8430-2022-5-4-326-331.

The incidence of dysgraphia in Arabic language in children with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder

BackgroundAttention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a brain disorder marked by an ongoing pattern of inattention and/or hyperactivity-impulsivity that interferes with functioning or development. Although children with ADHD made much more spelling errors, they had a distinct pattern of letter insertions, replacements, transpositions, and omissions. This mistake type is sometimes referred to as graphemic buffer errors, and it is caused by a lack of attention required for motor planning. The aim of study was to assess the incidence of dysgraphia in Arabic language in children with ADHD for better helping, diagnosis and management of those children.ResultsTen percent of ADHD children had normal handwriting with no disability, 40% had excellent handwriting with a minimum of disability and 50% of ADHD children showed mild to moderate disability. There were significant differences between ADHD children and control children regarding results of each item on the subtest of handwriting of dysgraphia disability scale (DDS), respecting lines, spacing between words, letter direction, spelling a sentence, and punctuation. Drawing affected in ADHD children. The finger tapping speed was affected in almost ADHD children.ConclusionsDysgraphia highly presents in our sample of ADHD children with poor fine motor skills in ADHD children than normal children. ADHD children have illegible handwriting, not respecting lines, insufficient space between and within words, multiple spelling errors, and omissions of letters or words. Graphesthesia and stereognosis are affected more in ADHD children than in control children drawing and finger tapping speed affected in ADHD children.

The Interplay Between the Early Work and Family Trajectories of Young Adult Women Born in West Germany: Differences by Parental Origins

Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), this paper employs sequence analysis to identify “typical” early (observation window limited to ages 15 to 30) employment and family formation trajectories among female second-generation migrants in Germany. For the employment domain of the life course, four types of employment trajectories were identified according to their modal states: “long education,” “full-time employment,” “part-time employment,” and “non-employment.” For the family domain of the life course, three types of family trajectories were identified: “postponement of family formation,” “early family formation,” and “early single motherhood.” For the analysis on cluster affiliation, a multinomial logistic regression was used to investigate how parental origin relates to jointly determined employment and family trajectories. As expected, the descriptive results showed that trajectories of low labor market participation are highly related to trajectories of early family formation. The categorization by parental origins shows that there were few differences in the trajectories of most native and G2 women groups. One pattern that stood out was that compared to other origin groups, G2 women of Turkish parental origin were more likely to be on an early family formation path, and they were more likely to be on a path with multiple non-employment spells. In the modeling strategy, the remaining differences in the women’s patterns were partially explained by the differences in their socioeconomic backgrounds (compulsory school track and the father’s professional degree) and their maternal employment role models (the mother’s employment when the woman was age 15).

Analysis of temporal spatial distribution characteristics of PM2.5 pollution and the influential meteorological factors using Big Data in Harbin, China

ABSTRACT Based on the monitoring data of atmospheric pollutants and the meteorological data in Harbin in 2017, the temporal spatial distribution characteristics of PM2.5 pollution and the relationships between PM2.5 concentration and meteorological factors in this region were analyzed. The PM2.5 concentration data and the meteorological data in 2017 were comprehensively analyzed by using ArcGIS and R. The results show that spatially, the PM2.5 concentration in the central districts of Harbin are high in the southeast and low in the northwest; temporally, PM2.5 pollution is most serious in autumn and winter, with multiple spells of heavy pollution and an obvious “weekend effect”, while the air quality is better in spring and summer; overall, relative humidity is positively correlated to PM2.5 concentration, while temperature, wind direction, and wind speed are negatively correlated to PM2.5 mass concentration, and low wind speed and high relative humidity are major contributors to increase of PM2.5 concentration. Implications: Highlight: The use of big data to deal with the data of air pollution and meteorology. Key points: The air pollution data of Harbin in autumn and winter is more serious than that in spring and summer, and is closely related to meteorological factors. Attraction: Big data is used to process air pollution data and meteorological data, and R language is used to describe the relationship between them.

Working to get fired? Unemployment benefits and employment duration

In many countries, jobseekers are entitled to unemployment benefits (UBs) only if they have previously worked a minimum period of time. This institutional feature creates a sharp change in the disutility from unemployment at UB eligibility and may distort the duration of jobs. In this paper, we evaluate this eligibility effect using a regression discontinuity approach. Our evidence is based on longitudinal social security data from Portugal, where jobseekers are required to work a relatively long period to collect UBs. We find that monthly transitions from employment to unemployment increase by 10% as soon as the eligibility condition is met. This result is driven entirely by transitions to subsidised unemployment, which increase by 20%, as non-subsidised unemployment is not affected. The effects are even larger for the unemployed with high UB replacement ratios or those who meet the eligibility condition from multiple short employment spells. These transitions deserve greater attention from UB agencies and public employment services.

Competing risks regression with dependent multiple spells: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to maternity leave

Competing risks regression with dependent multiple spells: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to maternity leave

New Horizons? Comparisons and Frames of Reference of Polish Multiple Migrants Worldwide

Building on the literature on transnational social fields (Levitt &amp;amp; Glick Schiller, 2004) and the research agenda on pluri-local transnational studies (Pries, 2001), in this article we examine the processes of Polish migrants’ social positioning. Nowadays many migrant trajectories are more complex than moving just from one place to another, involving repeated migration spells, returns, and onward mobility. In particular, multiple migration routes involving more than one destination expand the horizons lived by migrants and hence the frames in which they can position themselves. We adopt an actor-centred approach to better understand how highly mobile individuals negotiate social comparisons concerning the contexts they have engaged in during their multiple migration spells. This article draws on qualitative data from the MULTIMIG project that examines Polish migration worldwide. The analysis is based on a qualitative panel study with 70 Poles living abroad, who have the experience of multiple migration (who have lived in two countries outside of Poland for at least three months in each). The interviews shed light on how Polish migrants make social comparisons, and in particular, which frames of reference they adopt.

Observing a severe flooding over southern part of India in monsoon season of 2019

Kerala is one of the most flood prone states of India due to its geographical location and topography. In recent decades, the frequency and intensity of flood has significantly increased in Kerala. Floods that occurred in the year 2007, 2009, 2014 and 2018 resulted in heavy damage in the form of lives and properties. This research focuses on exploring a recent flood event of Kerala in July–August 2019 using observations from space. Enhanced convective activities over Kerala were resulted due to movement of a low-pressure system westwards from Bay of Bengal towards coastal Arabian Sea under favourable conditions. Results report that excess cumulative rainfall resulting from multi-day extreme precipitation events due to enhanced convection during July and August resulted in catastrophic flood events over various parts of Kerala. Kannur, Wayanad, Kozhikode and Palakkad districts of north Kerala were affected more as compared to other region. Kannur district received a cumulative rainfall of about 1300 mm from multiple rainy spells during July and August of 2019. Peak rainfall was recorded on August 08, 2019. A peak hourly rainfall of about 60 mm/h was recorded at 1230 UTC on August 08 over Kannur district. These multiple heavy to very heavy rainfall episodes led to severe flooding over Kerala resulting in huge damage. Present research emphasizes on the importance of space-borne satellite remote sensing in monitoring of flood events in order to envisage preparedness and mitigation in flood scenarios.