Multiple Prediction Models Research Articles

Earthquake Prediction and Alert System Using IoT Infrastructure and Cloud-Based Environmental Data Analysis

Earthquakes are one of the most life-threatening natural phenomena, and their prediction is of constant concern among scientists. The study proposes that abrupt weather parameter value fluctuations may influence the occurrence of shallow seismic events by focusing on developing an innovative concept that combines historical meteorological and seismic data collection to predict potential earthquakes. A machine learning (ML) model utilizing the ML.NET framework was designed and implemented. An analysis was undertaken to identify which modeling approach, value prediction, or data classification performs better in forecasting seismic events. The model was trained on a dataset of 8766 records corresponding to the period from 1 January 2001 to 5 October 2024. The achieved accuracy of the model was 95.65% for earthquake prediction based on weather conditions in the Vrancea region, Romania. The authors proposed a unique alerting algorithm and conducted a case study that evaluates multiple predictive models, varying parameters, and methods to identify the most effective model for seismic event prediction in specific meteorological conditions. The findings demonstrate the potential of combining Internet of Things (IoT)-based environmental monitoring with AI to improve earthquake prediction accuracy and preparedness. An IoT-based application was developed using C# with ASP.NET framework to enhance earthquake prediction and public warning capabilities, leveraging Azure cloud infrastructure. The authors also created a hardware prototype for real-time earthquake alerting, integrating the M5Stack platform with ESP32 and MPU-6050 sensors for validation. The testing phase and results describe the proposed methodology and various scenarios.

Evaluation of forecasted wind speed at turbine hub height and wind ramps by five NWP models with observations from 262 wind farms over China

AbstractAccurate wind speed forecasts are essential for optimizing the efficiency of wind energy operations. Currently, there is limited research on nationwide assessment of predictive performance in multiple numerical weather prediction (NWP) models for wind speed at turbine hub height over China, especially concerning wind ramp events. Utilizing observed measurements from 262 wind farms, this study evaluated the performance of five NWP models in forecasting the mean state and spatiotemporal variations of wind speed as well as wind ramps. The results indicated that the European Center for Medium‐Range Weather Forecast Integrated Forecasting System (ECMWF–IFS) performed the best in forecasting climatological wind speed with a temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) of 0.74 and root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.34 m s−1. Although not widely utilized in China, the model from Meteo‐France (MF–ARPEGE) showed promising potential for wind energy forecasting with a TCC of 0.72 and RMSE of 2.45 m s−1. In terms of temporal variations of wind speed, all the models could reasonably predict the seasonal variations of wind speed, whereas only three NWP models were able to capture the characteristics of the observed diurnal variation. An error decomposition analysis further revealed that the primary source of predicted error for wind speed was the sequence error component (SEQU), indicating the model errors were mainly attributed from the temporal inconsistency between forecasts and observations. Furthermore, the occurrences of wind ramps were generally underestimated by NWP models, while this shortcoming can be partly overcome by improving the time resolution of NWP models.

A Multi-Model Output Fusion Strategy Based on Various Machine Learning Techniques for Product Price Prediction

In the digital era, precise product price prediction becomes crucial for enhancing competitiveness in the online marketplace. This paper presents a hybrid model framework that enhances the accuracy of online product price predictions by integrating several machine learning algorithms, including Linear Regression, Decision Trees, and Gradient Boosting. The objective of this approach is to leverage the distinct advantages of each model to address their individual limitations and create a robust unified predictive model. This integration allows for improved handling of complex data relationships and diverse market dynamics that are typical in online sales environments. The results demonstrate that the hybrid model achieves superior prediction accuracy, as reflected in reduced Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) metrics, and an exceptionally high R ² value compared to single-model approaches. These outcomes underscore the efficacy of combining multiple predictive models to enhance the precision of price forecasts in the highly competitive online marketplace. This model fusion strategy not only provides more accurate pricing predictions but also offers strategic insights into the optimal pricing strategies for businesses looking to enhance their market position.

First-Trimester Prediction Models Based on Maternal Characteristics for Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Early risk stratification can facilitate timely interventions for adverse pregnancy outcomes, including preeclampsia (PE), small-for-gestational-age neonates (SGA), spontaneous preterm birth (sPTB) and gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). To perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of first-trimester prediction models for adverse pregnancy outcomes. The PubMed database was searched until 6 June 2024. First-trimester prediction models based on maternal characteristics were included. Articles reporting on prediction models that comprised biochemical or ultrasound markers were excluded. Two authors identified articles, extracted data and assessed risk of bias and applicability using PROBAST. A total of 77 articles were included, comprising 30 developed models for PE, 15 for SGA, 11 for sPTB and 35 for GDM. Discriminatory performance in terms of median area under the curve (AUC) of these models was 0.75 [IQR 0.69-0.78] for PE models, 0.62 [0.60-0.71] for SGA models of nulliparous women, 0.74 [0.72-0.74] for SGA models of multiparous women, 0.65 [0.61-0.67] for sPTB models of nulliparous women, 0.71 [0.68-0.74] for sPTB models of multiparous women and 0.71 [0.67-0.76] for GDM models. Internal validation was performed in 40/91 (43.9%) of the models. Model calibration was reported in 21/91 (23.1%) models. External validation was performed a total of 96 times in 45/91 (49.5%) of the models. High risk of bias was observed in 94.5% of the developed models and in 58.3% of the external validations. Multiple first-trimester prediction models are available, but almost all suffer from high risk of bias, and internal and external validations were often not performed. Hence, methodological quality improvement and assessment of the clinical utility are needed.

Machine Learning Applications in Stock Price Prediction

With economic fluctuations, investors focus on the stock market where scientific investment strategies become increasingly crucial. This article utilizes linear regression to predict stock price trends, achieving an R value close to 1, indicating high accuracy in the model's predictions. Additionally, logistic regression and random forest classification models were employed to predict stock price movements, revealing a superior performance with the random forest model achieving an AUC value of 0.64. By employing a combination of regression and classification algorithms, this study offers a diverse perspective on stock price prediction, highlighting the importance of scientific forecasting in financial markets. The findings demonstrate that integrating multiple predictive models enhances the accuracy and reliability of stock price predictions, providing investors with precise market information to facilitate rational investment decisions. Furthermore, this research contributes valuable insights for future studies in stock market prediction, promoting continuous innovation and development in the theoretical and methodological aspects of this field. The results underscore the potential of advanced machine learning techniques in financial forecasting, offering a robust framework for understanding market dynamics and improving investment strategies. This study serves as a reference point for both academic research and practical applications, driving forward the evolution of predictive modeling in finance.

An integrative predictive model for orthokeratology lens decentration based on diverse metrics.

To develop a predictive model for orthokeratology (Ortho-K) lens decentration 1 month after wear. This study included myopic children who were fitted with Ortho-K lenses at Fujian Provincial Hospital between December 2022 and May 2024. Corneal topography parameters and other relevant metrics were collected pre- and post-treatment. Feature selection was conducted using univariate logistic regression and Lasso regression analysis. A machine learning approach was used to develop multiple predictive models, including Decision Tree, Logistic Regression, Multilayer Perceptron, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine. Model performance was evaluated using accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, ROC curves, DCA curves, and calibration curves. SHAP values were employed to interpret the models. The Logistic Regression model demonstrated the best predictive performance, with an AUC of 0.82 (95% CI: 0.69-0.95), accuracy of 77.59%, sensitivity of 85%, and specificity of 61.11%. The most significant predictors identified were age, 8 mm sag height difference, 5 mm Kx1, and 7 mm Kx2. SHAP analysis confirmed the importance of these features, particularly the 8 mm sag height difference. The Logistic Regression model successfully predicted the risk of Ortho-K lens decentration using key corneal morphological metrics and age. This model provides valuable support for clinicians in optimizing Ortho-K lens fitting strategies, potentially reducing the risk of adverse outcomes and improving the quality of vision for patients. Further validation in clinical settings is recommended.

Contribution of the large-scale population cohort in disease risk prediction model study: taking United Kingdom Biobank as an example

The disease risk prediction model is the basis of precision prevention and an essential reference for clinical treatment decisions. The development of risk prediction models requires the support of a large amount of high-quality data. A large population cohort study is an important basis for this study. The United Kingdom Biobank (UKB), as a mega-population cohort and biobank, has played an essential role in the exploration of disease etiology and research related to disease prevention and control, with its rich baseline and follow-up data and concepts and mechanisms shared globally. This study followed PRISMA guidelines and included 210 articles with corresponding authors from 18 countries, of which 58 (27.62%) were from the UKB. A total of 491 disease risk prediction models were extracted for cancer, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, endocrine and metabolic diseases, respiratory diseases, and other diseases and their subgroups, of which 132 were developed by UKB without validation, 183 were developed by UKB with internal validation, 17 were developed by UKB with external validation, and 159 were developed by external development with UKB validation. A total of 188 models used only macro variables (38.29%), and 303 models combined macro and micro variables (61.71%). Model construction methods included survival outcome models, logistic regression, and machine learning. Survival outcome models were dominated by Cox proportional risk regression models and a few models considering competitive risk, accelerated failure models, or different baseline risk functions. Machine learning models included random forest, XGBoost, CatBoost, support vector machine, convolutional neural network, and other methods. The UKB is an essential resource for multiple disease risk prediction modeling studies.

Prediction of soil heavy metal content around mine tailings using multiple methods combined with transformed hyperspectral reflectance data

The extensive accumulation of tailings can potentially cause heavy metal contamination in the surrounding farmland soil. Accurately predicting the spatial distribution of heavy metals in farmland soil is crucial for assessing the potential environmental hazards of tailings.This study focuses on the spatial distribution and the quantitative prediction of heavy metals (chromium (Cr), vanadium (V), and copper (Cu)) in soils surrounding mine tailings using advanced spectral data analysis and multiple prediction models. The original hyperspectral reflectance data were processed using first-order differential (FD), second-order differential (SD), reciprocal logarithmic (LR), and continuum removal (CR) transformations to highlight the positions of characteristic bands. Multiple linear regression (MLR), stepwise linear regression (SLR), partial least squares regression (PLSR), random forest (RF), and back propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN) models were used to establish inversion models for Cr, V, and Cu based on bands with high correlation coefficients. The performance of the inversion models was evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and residual predictive deviation (RPD). The results indicate that the raw hyperspectral data from the measured soil exhibit a weak response to heavy metal content in the study area. However, applying FD, SD, and CR transformations significantly enhances the sensitivity of soil spectral data to heavy metal concentrations, facilitating subsequent modeling. Among these, the SD transformation is particularly beneficial for modeling the Cr and Cu elements in the soil. For the V element, the FD transformation yields data that are more suitable for modeling. Regarding the inversion models based on the measured spectral data, the BP-ANN model exhibited the best predictive performance. Specifically, when combined with SD spectral data, the BP-ANN achieved the highest predictive accuracy for Cu content (R² = 0.85, RPD = 2.12). The RF model demonstrated the next best performance, with its optimal inversion model also utilizing SD spectral data for predicting Cu content (R² = 0.76, RPD = 1.90). On the other hand, the MLR model exhibited the poorest performance and is unsuitable for predicting heavy metal content in the region using the measured spectral data. This study highlights the potential of spectral data in environmental monitoring and provides a technical reference for the inversion assessment and regulation of heavy metals in farmlands surrounding tailing sites.

Interpretable Machine Learning-Based Influence Factor Identification for 3D Printing Process-Structure Linkages.

Three-dimensional printing technology is a rapid prototyping technology that has been widely used in manufacturing. However, the printing parameters in the 3D printing process have an important impact on the printing effect, so these parameters need to be optimized to obtain the best printing effect. In order to further understand the impact of 3D printing parameters on the printing effect, make theoretical explanations from the dimensions of mathematical models, and clarify the rationality of certain important parameters in previous experience, the purpose of this study is to predict the impact of 3D printing parameters on the printing effect by using machine learning methods. Specifically, we used four machine learning algorithms: SVR (support vector regression): A regression method that uses the principle of structural risk minimization to find a hyperplane in a high-dimensional space that best fits the data, with the goal of minimizing the generalization error bound. Random forest: An ensemble learning method that constructs a multitude of decision trees and outputs the class that is the mode of the classes (classification) or mean prediction (regression) of the individual trees. GBDT (gradient boosting decision tree): An iterative ensemble technique that combines multiple weak prediction models (decision trees) into a strong one by sequentially minimizing the loss function. Each subsequent tree is built to correct the errors of the previous tree. XGB (extreme gradient boosting): An optimized and efficient implementation of gradient boosting that incorporates various techniques to improve the performance of gradient boosting frameworks, such as regularization and sparsity-aware splitting algorithms. The influence of the print parameters on the results under the feature importance and SHAP (Shapley additive explanation) values is compared to determine which parameters have the greatest impact on the print effect. We also used feature importance and SHAP values to compare the importance impact of print parameters on results. In the experiment, we used a dataset with multiple parameters and divided it into a training set and a test set. Through Bayesian optimization and grid search, we determined the best hyperparameters for each algorithm and used the best model to make predictions for the test set. We compare the predictive performance of each model and confirm that the extrusion expansion ratio, elastic modulus, and elongation at break have the greatest influence on the printing effect, which is consistent with the experience. In future, we will continue to delve into methods for optimizing 3D printing parameters and explore how interpretive machine learning can be applied to the 3D printing process to achieve more efficient and reliable printing results.

Analysis of high temperature and strain amplitude effects on low cycle fatigue behavior of pitting corroded killed E350 BR structural steel

High-tension structural steels are prone to accelerated fatigue damage from pitting corrosion and high-temperature. Despite adverse effects, research on their low cycle fatigue (LCF) behavior is limited. Specifically, studies analyzing temperature-dependent pit sensitivity effects, considering pit-related material’s susceptibility to surface topographic features variation and stress concentration are lacking. This study conducts LCF tests on pitting corroded killed E350 BR structural steel at multiple strain amplitudes and high temperatures. It develops temperature-dependent parameters, such as the cyclic softening pit sensitivity factor, suitable for integration into existing approaches like total cyclic plastic strain energy density (CPSED), power-law, average strain energy density (SED), Coffin-Manson, and pit stress intensity factor (pit-SIF). Further, it proposes multiple linear regression-based prediction models relating total CPSED and average SED with strain amplitude and temperature. Corroded specimens show higher plastic deformation and reduced peak stress, fatigue life, and total CPSED compared to uncorroded ones. The developed parameters, integrated with average SED approach, predicts LCF life within an error band of ±1.5, while power-law relationship reduces it to ±1.2. Moreover, pit-SIF approach estimates fatigue life within an error band of ±1.5. The findings provide critical knowledge for enhanced component design, leading to structural safety, performance, and fire resilience.

RNAseqCovarImpute: a multiple imputation procedure that outperforms complete case and single imputation differential expression analysis

Missing covariate data is a common problem that has not been addressed in observational studies of gene expression. Here, we present a multiple imputation method that accommodates high dimensional gene expression data by incorporating principal component analysis of the transcriptome into the multiple imputation prediction models to avoid bias. Simulation studies using three datasets show that this method outperforms complete case and single imputation analyses at uncovering true positive differentially expressed genes, limiting false discovery rates, and minimizing bias. This method is easily implemented via an R Bioconductor package, RNAseqCovarImpute that integrates with the limma-voom pipeline for differential expression analysis.

Single-center external validation and reconstruction of multiple predictive models for skip lateral lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid carcinoma.

The unique metastatic pattern of skip lateral lymph node metastasis (SLLNM) in PTC patients may lead to missed diagnosis of lateral cervical metastatic lymph nodes. Therefore, many different SLLNM prediction models were constructed. In this study, partially eligible models (Hu 2020, Wang 2020, and Zhao 2023 nomograms) were selected for external validation, and then new variables were incorporated for model reconstruction to extend clinical applicability. 576 PTC patients from our center were selected to evaluate the performance of the three nomograms using the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), calibration curves, and decision curve analyses (DCA). Three new variables were added to calibrate the model, including assessment of LN status on ultrasound (US-SLLNM), the distance from the tumor to the capsule (Capsular distance), and the number of central lymph node dissections (CLND number). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to screen independent predictors to reconstruct the model, and 1000 Bootstrap internal validations were performed. SLLNM were present in 69/576 patients (12.0%). In external validation, the area under the ROC curves (AUCs) for Hu 2020, Wang 2020, and Zhao 2023 nomograms were 0.695 (95% CI:0.633-0.766), 0.792 (95% CI=0.73-0.845), and 0.769 (95% CI:0.713-0.824), respectively. The calibration curves for the three models were overall poorly fitted; DCA showed some net clinical benefit. Model differentiation and net clinical benefit improved by adding three new variables. Based on multivariate analysis, female, age, and maximum tumor diameter ≤ 10 mm, located at the upper pole, Capsular distance < 0mm, US-SLLNM, CLND number ≤ 5 were identified as independent predictors of SLLNM and were used to construct the new model. After 1000 Bootstrap internal validations, the mean AUC of the model was 0.870 (95% CI:0.839-0.901), the calibration curve was close to the ideal curve, and the net clinical benefit was significant. Overall, these nomograms were well differentiated and provided some net clinical benefit, but with varying degrees of underestimation or overestimation of the actual risk and high false-negative rates. New dynamic nomogram was constructed based on the addition of new variables and larger samples, showing better performance.

Sediment organic matter predicts polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon distribution in port sediments

We evaluated the influence of organic matter in polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in port sediments using multiple linear regression (MLR) and prediction models. Total sediment PAHs ranged between 45 and 3230 ng/g dw (average: 557 ± 962 ng/g dw), with PAHs primarily originating from river inputs, confined to areas near the estuaries. Coal/biomaterial combustion and petroleum mainly contribute to the presence of PAHs along estuaries, with medium-high to high ecological risks. MLR TPAHs prediction model included variables, namely, the marine-derived total organic carbon (TOCmar), terrestrial fraction of organic matter (Fterr), and carbon-to‑nitrogen ratio (CNR). Results indicate that mainly marine- followed by terrestrially-derived organic matter influenced sediment PAH distribution. Total organic nitrogen and CNR were variables in the toxic equivalent (TEQ) prediction model, demonstrating that terrestrial pollution sources primarily influenced TEQ. The study analyzes and predicts the impact of organic matter and its sources on the fate and transport of PAHs in port sediments.

Numerical and machine learning modeling of GFRP confined concrete-steel hollow elliptical columns

This article investigates the behavior of hybrid FRP Concrete-Steel columns with an elliptical cross section. The investigation was carried out by gathering information through literature and conducting a parametric study, which resulted in 116 data points. Moreover, multiple machine learning predictive models were developed to accurately estimate the confined ultimate strain and the ultimate load of confined concrete at the rupture of FRP tube. Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), Adaptive Boosting (ADAB), Categorical Boosting (CATB), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) machine learning techniques were utilized for the proposed models. Finally, these models were visually and quantitatively verified and evaluated. It was concluded that the CATB and XGB are standout models, offering high accuracy and strong generalization capabilities. The CATB model is slightly superior due to its consistently lower error rates during testing, indicating it is the best model for this dataset when considering both accuracy and robustness against overfitting.

Predictive Modeling of Medical and Orthopaedic-Related 90-Day-Readmissions Following Primary Total Knee Arthroplasty

BackgroundAs the demand for total knee arthroplasty (TKA) escalates, 90-day readmissions have emerged as a pressing clinical and economic concern for the current value-based health care system. Consequently, health care providers have focused on estimating the risk levels of readmitted patients; however, it is unknown if specific factors are associated with different types of complications (ie, medical or orthopaedic-related) that lead to readmissions. Therefore, this study aimed to (1) determine the overall, medical-related, and orthopaedic-related 90-day readmission rate and (2) develop a predictive model for risk factors affecting overall, medical-related, and orthopaedic-related 90-day readmissions following TKA. MethodsA prospective cohort of primary unilateral TKAs performed at a large tertiary academic center in the United States from 2016 to 2020 was included (n = 10,521 patients). Unplanned readmissions were reviewed individually to determine their primary cause, either medical or orthopaedic-related. Orthopaedic-related readmissions were specific complications affecting the joint, prosthesis, or surgical wound. Medical readmissions were due to any other cause requiring medical management. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to investigate associations between prespecified risk factors and 90-day readmissions, as well as medical and orthopaedic-related readmissions independently. ResultsOverall, the rate of 90-day readmissions was 6.7% (n = 704). Over 82% of these readmissions were due to medical-related causes (n = 580), with the remaining 18% being orthopaedic-related (n = 124) readmissions. The area under the curve for the 90-day readmission model was 0.68 (95% confidence interval: 0.67 to 0.70). Sex, smoking, length of stay, and discharge disposition were associated with orthopaedic readmission, while age, sex, race, the Charlson Comorbidity Index, insurance, surgery day, opioid overdose risk score, length of stay, and discharge disposition were associated with medical-related 90-day readmissions. ConclusionsMedical-related readmissions after TKA are more prevalent than orthopaedic-related readmissions. Through successfully constructing and validating multiple 90-day readmission predictive models, we highlight the distinct risk profiles for medical and orthopaedic-related readmissions. This emphasizes the necessity for nuanced, patient-specific risk stratification and preventive measures.

Multiple AI predictive models for compressive strength of recycled aggregate concrete

Multiple AI predictive models for compressive strength of recycled aggregate concrete

Machine Learning-Assisted Analysis of Sublingual Microcirculatory Dysfunction for Early Cardiovascular Risk Evaluation and Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic Syndrome Stage in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus.

To examine whether sublingual microcirculation can be used as an effective and noninvasive method for assessing cardiovascular, kidney, and metabolic risks in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). This cross-sectional observational study enrolled 186 patients with T2DM. All patients were evaluated using the Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Score (FGCRS) and cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) syndrome stage. Side-stream dark-field microscopy was used for sublingual microcirculation, including total and perfused vessel density (TVD and PVD). Multiple machine-learning prediction models have been developed for CKM risk and stage assessment in T2DM patients. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were generated to determine cutoff points. Compared to patients with T2DM, diabetic patients with subclinical atherosclerosis (SA) had a greater CV risk, as measured by the FGCRS, accompanied by markedly decreased microcirculation perfusion. Microcirculatory parameters (TVD and PVD), including carotid intima-media thickness (IMT), brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (ba-PWV), and FGCRS, were closely associated with SA incidence. Microcirculatory parameters, Index (DMSA screen), and cut-off points were used to screen for SA in patients with T2DM. Furthermore, a new set of four factors identified through machine learning showed optimal sensitivity and specificity for detecting CKM risk in patients with T2DM. Decreased microcirculatory perfusion served as a useful early marker for CKM syndrome risk stratification in patients with T2DM without SA. Sublingual microcirculatory dysfunction is closely correlated with the risk of SA and CKM risk in T2DM patients. Sublingual microcirculation could be a novel tool for assessing the CKM syndrome stage in patients with T2DM.

Transport characteristics of heavy metals in the soil-atmosphere-wheat system in farming areas and development of multiple linear regression predictive model

Heavy metal accumulation in agricultural products has become a major concern. Previous studies have focused on the transport of heavy metals from the soil and their accumulation in crops. However, recent studies revealed that wheat leaves, ears, and awns can also transport and accumulate heavy metals. Wheat grains can be influenced by two sources of heavy metals: soil contamination and atmospheric deposition. To comprehend the transport characteristics of heavy metals in soil, atmospheric deposition, and wheat, 37 samples each for wheat rhizosphere soil, wheat roots, stems, leaves, and grains were collected. Fifteen samples of atmospheric dry deposition and atmospheric wet deposition were collected from Linshu County (northern area), China. Based on the test data, the characteristics of heavy metals and their distribution in the study area were analyzed. Migration patterns of heavy metals in crops from different sources were investigated using Pearson correlation and redundancy analysis. Finally, a predictive model for heavy metals in wheat grains was developed using multiple linear regression analysis. Significant disparities in the distribution of heavy metals existed among wheat roots, stems, leaves, and grains. The coefficient of variation of heavy metals in atmospheric deposition was relatively high, indicating discernible spatial patterns influenced by human activities. Notably, a positive correlation was observed between the concentration of heavy metals in wheat grains and atmospheric deposition of Hg, Cd, and Pb. Conversely, Zn and Ni levels in wheat grains were significantly negatively associated with soil Zn, Ni, pH, and OM content. The contribution of heavy metal elements from different sources varied in their impact on the grain's heavy metal content. Specifically, atmospheric deposition was the primary source of Hg and Pb in wheat grains, while Cd, Ni, Cu, and Zn were predominantly derived from soil. Using a multiple linear regression model, we could accurately predict Hg, Pb, Cd, Ni, Zn, and As concentrations in crop grains. This model can facilitate quantitative evaluation of ecological risk of heavy metals accumulation in crops in the study area.

Development and application of data-driven CHF model in system analysis code

In nuclear reactor systems, when the fuel rods reach the critical heat flux (CHF), a sharp increase in fuel temperature occurs due to a drastic reduction in heat transfer capacity, thus posing a considerable risk to the reactor’s safety. Consequently, accurate CHF prediction holds paramount importance in accurately simulating accident scenarios and enhancing the overall safety of reactor systems. To tackle the challenge of limited prediction accuracy in existing CHF models, this study initially established a comprehensive database by utilizing available experimental data and lookup tables. Subsequently, various methodologies, including the Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN), Random Forest (RF), and Physics-Informed Machine Learning (PIML), were employed to develop multiple CHF prediction models, and their performance was thoroughly evaluated. Furthermore, the optimal CHF model was integrated into the self-developed analysis code ARSAC, which was then validated using the ORNL-THTF experiment. The results indicated that the BPNN-based model not only demonstrated exceptional prediction accuracy but also exhibited rapid calculation speeds. Notably, the average relative error between the experimental data points and the calculation results of the modified code is 3.64%, while for the original code, it is 22.84%. This study effectively leverages the strengths of data-driven approaches, providing a robust technical solution for high-precision, efficient, and adaptive numerical prediction and analysis of reactor accidents.

Advancements in Incident Heart Failure Risk Prediction and Screening Tools

Heart Failure (HF) is a major cause of mortality and morbidity in the United States that carries substantial healthcare costs. Multiple risk prediction models and strategies have been developed over the past 30-years with the aim to identify those at high risk of developing HF and implement preventive therapies effectively. This review highlights recent developments in HF risk prediction tools including emerging risk factors, innovative risk prediction models, and novel screening strategies from AI to biomarkers. These developments allow for more accurate prediction but their impact on clinical outcomes remain to be investigated. Implementation of these risk models into clinical practice is a considerable challenge, but HF risk prediction tools offer a promising opportunity to improve outcomes while maintaining value.