Multiple Hazards Research Articles

A framework for multi-risk assessment in a historical area of Lisbon

Historic areas have faced escalating risks due to population growth, urbanization, climate change, and increasing public awareness. Existing risk assessment methods often focus on individual hazards, necessitating a more integrated approach. This research introduces a comprehensive multi-risk model to assess the potential impacts of rainfall and earthquakes on Lisbon's historic city centre. The model considers key risk components – hazard, exposure, and vulnerability – providing a detailed evaluation. Pluvial flood hazards for different return periods were analysed using a proper hydrological model, and seismic hazards were estimated based on PGA values (0.035g–0.25g) with a 10 % exceedance probability over 50 years. Concerning the exposure, the paper integrates spatial distribution data acquired through satellite remote sensing and GIS tools, along with census data. Vulnerability assessments for ordinary unreinforced masonry buildings (URM) used the Risk-UE method and flood stage-damage curves. The results obtained through a multi-exposure and multi-vulnerability framework provide insight into the expected building losses: for a 475/500-year return period, the estimated losses are approximately 1150 M€ for earthquakes and 22 M€ for floods. The higher losses for earthquakes are attributed to structural damage, whereas flood losses are predominantly associated with indirect impacts and loss of contents. This study marks a novelty in the application of risk assessment methodologies in Portugal addressing multiple hazards and highlights the protection of the built environment to mitigate economic and human losses. The paper serves as a starting point for further assessments, offering an overview of the influence of multiple risks on urban settings.

Referrals for proliferative diabetic retinopathy from two UK diabetic retinopathy screening services: a 10-year analysis of visual outcomes, requirement for vitrectomy, and mortality

Background/objectivesTo determine long-term outcomes of patients referred with proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) from diabetic eye screening programmes (DESP) to tertiary care centres in the United Kingdom (UK).MethodsRetrospective multicentre study of patients referred from two DESPs in the UK over a 36-month period (2007–9) and followed-up for 10 years. Critical outcomes included severe vision loss (SVL) and the need for vitrectomy. Other outcomes assessed included moderate vision loss (MVL), and patient survival time. Univariate and multiple variable Cox proportional hazards regressions were used to analyse survival outcomes.Results212 eyes of 150 patients were referred with a diagnosis of PDR. 109 eyes of 72 patients were confirmed to have active PDR and included in the study. 61% of patients had low-risk PDR, while 39% exhibited high-risk features in at least one eye. Eight (7.3%) eyes developed SVL and 16 (14.7%) MVL during follow up. Vitrectomy was required in 24% (95% CI: 15 to 31%) of all PDR eyes and was most commonly performed for vitreous haemorrhage (65%). The 10-year survival in all PDR patients was 76% (95% CI: 63 to 85%) with the mean time to death for all deceased patients being 5.4 ± 3.6 years.On multivariable analysis, only age was found to have a significant association with the survival of patients with PDR.ConclusionsDuring the 10 year follow up SVL was uncommon, but MVL occurred in almost one-fifth of the eyes. Approximately 1 in 4 eyes required vitrectomy, highlighting its significance in patient management.

Multi-hazard could exacerbate in coastal Bangladesh in the context of climate change

Floods and landslides have cascading effects on coastal areas of Bangladesh. This study aims to develop multi-hazard maps (e.g., floods and landslides) for the coastal region, by integrating a genetic algorithm optimizer with Long Short-Term Memory deep learning algorithm (GA-LSTM-DLA), global climate model, and geospatial data. It assesses vulnerabilities to multiple hazards and projects future risks considering the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator Earth System Model 1.5 (ACCESS-ESM1-5) under three climate scenarios, i.e., Shared Socioeconomic Pathways1-2.6, 2–4.5, and 5–8.5 (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve is used to assess the performance of GA-LSTM-DLA model. According to important feature obtained by random forest (RF) algorithm, most important features for flash, riverine, tidal floods, and landslides are drainage density, rainfall, and geology, respectively. The baseline susceptibility maps for flash, riverine, tidal floods, and landslides are initially recorded as 0.11%, 7.99%, 3.46%, and 0.03%. Projections for the year 2100, under different SSPs, show significant increase, i.e., SSP1-2.6—flash 1.31%, riverine 23.74%, tidal 26.97%, landslides 2.05%; SSP2-4.5—flash 0.12%, riverine 30.97%, tidal 10.23%, landslides 0.18%; SSP5-8.5—flash 0.02%, riverine 17.42%, tidal 6.19%, landslides 0.14%. These projections highlight urgent need for mitigation and adaptation measures against hazards susceptibility, particularly under more extreme socioeconomic scenarios. Overall, the findings of this work are critical for policymakers to develop informed strategies for climate resilience, sustainable development, and disaster risk reduction in the coastal region of Bangladesh.

Cumulative Exposure to Natural Hazards and Mental Health in China: Are Older People More Vulnerable or More Resilient Than Younger and Middle-Aged Adults?

AbstractDespite the well-documented impacts of single natural hazards like earthquakes, less is known about the psychological adaptation to multiple natural hazards, particularly in rural areas. This study investigated the associations of multiple natural hazards with depression among Chinese adults. Data were retrieved from the China Family Panel Studies conducted during 2010–2018. With a sample of 11,633 Chinese adults, multilevel logistic regression was employed to examine the relationships between natural hazard exposure and depression in the total sample and different age groups. Overall, experiencing four or more natural hazards was associated with a higher risk of being depressed. Regarding hazard type, the number of hydrometeorological and biological hazards was associated with a higher likelihood of depression, whereas the number of geologic and other hazards was related to a lower risk of depression. Middle-aged adults from villages were more likely to be affected by natural hazard exposure than older and younger adults. The findings of this study show that cumulative exposure to natural hazards can generate lasting effects on depressive symptoms, particularly in middle adulthood. The findings also suggest that older adults from rural areas may have accumulated more resilience to mitigate the adverse well-being effects of hazard events. Policies and interventions should enhance disaster awareness and preparation for aging residents from multi-hazard communities.

Damping dissipation analysis of damped outrigger tall buildings with inerter and negative stiffness considering soil-structure-interaction

This paper analyzes the damping dissipation of damped outrigger tall buildings with inerter and negative stiffness considering soil-structure-interaction (SSI). A unified characteristic equation is established concerning different soil conditions and outrigger systems. By solving the unified characteristic equation, the multi-mode damping effect are parametrically investigated to evaluate the influence of SSI on tall buildings installing conventional outrigger (CO), conventional damped outrigger (CDO), negative stiffness damped outrigger (NSDO), and inerter damped outrigger (IDO). Then, the vibration performances of damped outrigger systems considering SSI are evaluated under both wind and earthquake loadings. Two key points are highlighted: (i) the interaction between the soil rocking behavior and the outrigger rotation in tall buildings; (ii) the influence of frequency variation caused by SSI on the damping effect of IDO and NSDO with frequency-dependent/independent features. Analyzing results indicate that a stronger CO would increase the damping effect of the foundation soil as long as the CO is not installed at lower stories. The SSI effect will render CDO itself undergo more dissipation for the first mode but limit CDO's damping effect on higher modes. IDO can be effective for the target mode, but is very sensitive to SSI effect due to its frequency-dependent feature; a re-optimization of IDO to proper vibration mode is always needed in resisting wind and earthquake. In contrast, NSDO's damping effect is less sensitive to the SSI effect and can be effective to multiple modes due to its frequency-independent feature. For example, the majority of the input energy from winds (over 90%) and earthquake (over 70 %) will be dissipated by NSDO, and such high values change little under SSI conditions, validating NSDO can provide effective and robust control to multiple hazards.

An Assessment of Geological Hazard Management using Dynamically Stabilized Recurrent Neural Network and Beluga Whale Optimization Algorithm

Mountainous region geological hazards are a leading cause of natural disasters, resulting in significant human and economic losses. Regional topography, landforms, lithology, plant life, geological circumstances, and meteorology all have a significant impact on their creation. Gansu, situated in the interior of Northwestern China, features Lanzhou as its capital and primary urban center, positioned in the southeast of the province. Geological risks, particularly landslides, mudslides, and avalanches, present significant challenges to Gansu Province. Consequently, local authorities are actively devising customized strategies to mitigate these hazards and foster sustainable development. In this research work, an Assessment of Geological Hazard Management using Dynamically Stabilized Recurrent Neural Network and Beluga Whale Optimization Algorithm (AGL-HM-DSRNN-BWOA) is proposed. Initially, the input raster data are gathered from the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) dataset. The input raster data is then pre-processed using Adaptive Actor-Critic Bilateral Filter (A2CBF) to reduce noises and increase the overall quality of the raster data. To classify the geological hazards, the pre-processed raster data are fed into a neural network named DSRNN. The geological hazard is accurately categorized as low risk, medium-low risk, medium-high risk, high risk using proposed DSRNN. In general, DSRNN does not express some adaption of optimization strategies for determining optimal parameters to promise exact classification for managing geological hazard by assessment. Therefore, Beluga Whale Optimization Algorithm (BWOA) is proposed to enhance weight parameter of DSRNN classifier, which precisely assess for managing the geological hazards. The efficiency of the proposed AGL-HM-DSRNN-BWOA approach is evaluated using a number of performance criteria, including accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, ROC, mean square error, root mean square error, mean absolute error. The proposed AGL-HM-DSRNN-BWOA method attains 22.36%, 25.42% and 18.17% higher accuracy, 21.26%, 15.42% and 19.27% higher sensitivity, 28.36%, 25.32% and 28.27% higher F-measure compared with existing methods, such as the Risk assessment and its influencing factors examination of geological hazards in typical mountain environment (RA-IFA-GH-TME), Feasibility study of land cover categorization under normalized difference vegetation index for landslide risk assessment(LCC-NDVI-LRA), and Multiple hazard exposure mapping under machine learning for Salzburg, Austria (MH-EM-SSA-ML) respectively.

Multi-hazard assessment of climate-related hazards for European coastal cities

The assessment of risk posed by climate change in coastal cities encompasses multiple climate-related hazards. Sea-level rise, coastal flooding and coastal erosion are important hazards, but they are not the only ones. The varying availability and quality of data across cities hinders the ability to conduct holistic and standardized multi-hazard assessments. Indeed, there are far fewer studies on multiple hazards than on single hazards. Also, the comparability of existing methodologies becomes challenging, making it difficult to establish a cohesive understanding of the overall vulnerability and resilience of coastal cities. The use of indicators allows for a standardized and systematic evaluation of baseline hazards across different cities. The methodology developed in this work establishes a framework to assess a wide variety of climate-related hazards across diverse coastal cities, including sea-level rise, coastal flooding, coastal erosion, heavy rainfall, land flooding, droughts, extreme temperatures, heatwaves, cold spells, strong winds and landslides. Indicators are produced and results are compared and mapped for ten European coastal cities. The indicators are meticulously designed to be applicable across different geographical contexts in Europe. In this manner, the proposed approach allows interventions to be prioritized based on the severity and urgency of the specific risks faced by each city.

Influence of Ductility on the Performance of Lunar Habitat Structures Under Recurrent Disturbances

This research examines how ductility affects the durability of lunar surface structures against recurring disturbances like moonquakes, micrometeorite impacts, and thermal cycles over an extended period. The structural performance at various levels of ductility was determined by adjusting material parameters and the thickness of a reference multilayered dome structure. Moonquake and micrometeorite impact-induced lateral displacements were estimated using a reduced-order model under a control-oriented dynamic computational modeling framework. The study considered the degradation of the metallic dome’s strength properties over time due to thermal cycles. Fragility curves were generated by assessing the likelihood of reaching three predefined damage levels as a result of multiple hazards. Additionally, a discounted cash flow analysis was conducted to incorporate a financial aspect into the performance comparison. The findings revealed that structures with sufficient ductility capacity have a lower probability of sustaining severe damage or collapsing within a shorter time frame. Hence, having ductile structures in lunar environments is advantageous as it allows the postponement of maintenance and repair actions, thereby conserving scarce resources for more urgent tasks. Moreover, the financial analysis demonstrated that lunar habitats with higher ductile capacities result in larger net present values, offering a higher return on the initial investment.

Coastal vulnerability assessment to multi hazards in the exposed coast of Southeastern Coastal Region of Bangladesh

Bangladesh is a maritime nation situated on the northern side of the Bay of Bengal (BoB), blessed with substantial natural resources and opportunities. However, natural disasters and climate-induced hazards are threatening these opportunities as well as destroying the recourses. Coastal vulnerability assessment aids in the prevention of loss of life and resource devastation since it provides forewarning of impending calamitous consequences and facilitates taking mitigative measures. The study has endeavored to make a composite coastal vulnerability index (CVI) for the exposed coast of the southeastern coastal region of Bangladesh, combining physical and social vulnerability indexes using several physical and social parameters. The CVI was developed by using nine physical parameters, namely (a) Coastal Elevation, (b) Coastal Slope, (c) Annual Average Rainfall, (d) Storm Surge Height, (e) Soil Salinity, (f) Average Wind Speed, (g) Rate of SLR, (h) Soil Permeability, (i) Mean Tidal Range and six social parameters namely (a) Literacy rate, (b) Household Structure, (c) Land Use Land Cover (LULC), (d) Population Density (e) Number of Disabled People and (f) Number of Population (Age: <5 & >65). With the aid of field and secondary data, thematic layers of each physical and social parameter were prepared by defining five distinct vulnerability classes (i.e., very high, high, moderate, low, and very low) and assigning vulnerability ranks. The final CVI was estimated using geospatial techniques such as GIS and remote sensing, coupled with Physical Vulnerability Index (PVI) and Social Vulnerability Index (SVI), and relevant values were categorized into five distinct groups as before. The findings show that 25.9% of the exposed coast in the southeast coastal region, which comprises Banshkhali, Chakaria, Maheshkhali, and Cox's Bazar Sadar is high to very high vulnerable to multiple hazards. Comparatively, 28.29% have been classified as moderately vulnerable, and the remaining 45.8% in the areas of Hathazari, Mirsharai, Sitakunda, Sandwip, and Chittagong City (Kotwali), Kutubdia show that they are very low to low vulnerable to such multi-hazards. Based on this vulnerability assessment result, sustainable coastal management policy-making and development planning can be taken to mitigate the risk and loss of the southeastern coastal region due to climatic hazards and natural disasters such as floods and storm surges. The outcome information will also help to make an Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) plan for the proper and sustainable utilization of the coastal resources. Additionally, it will assist as ground information to establish a framework for prioritizing community resilience-building initiatives or developing appropriate adaptation strategies to lower catastrophe risk.

Semi-Active Groundhook Control of Offshore Tension Leg Platforms Using Tuned Mass Damper With Optimized Parameters and Magneto-Rheological Damper Under Multiple Hazards

Abstract The purpose of the current study is to recommend an offshore tension leg platform (TLP) semi-active control system to lessen vibrations caused by various risks, such as the wind load and regular and irregular waves. State-of-the-art indicates that there has not been much study on semi-active management of offshore TLPs exposed to numerous hazards while taking into account system nonlinearities and employing a control method that is resilient to uncertainty. An augmented velocity–displacement-based groundhook (AVDB-GH) semi-active control scheme using magneto-rheological (MR) dampers, which is an improvement over the displacement-based groundhook (DB-GH) control algorithm, is proposed. The proposed controller uses a semi-active tuned mass damper (SATMD) consisting of a passive tuned mass damper (TMD) and two semi-active MR dampers as the control devices. Constrained nonlinear optimization is used to determine the SATMD's optimized parameters in order to produce the best control performance. A significant reduction in surge response of TLP is observed both in the time domain and the frequency domain. Compared to the SATMD using the usual DB-GH algorithm, the suggested control strategy more successfully decreases the key response variables—deck displacement, power spectral density, and acceleration. The effectiveness of the controller is better for regular waves than for irregular waves and wind forces. Because the performance of the controller is unaffected by changes in the mass and stiffness of the TLP, the controller can be regarded as robust.

Climate change unevenly affects the dependence of multiple climate-related hazards in China

Due to the complex natural environment and large regional differentiation in China, the dependence of multiple climate-related hazards on compound events (CEs) and their response to climate change are still unclear. Using daily meteorological observations (1961–2020) and climate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, statistically strong dependences among hot, dry, and high fire risk are revealed in China. The average temperature from 1991 to 2020 was 1 °C higher than that from 1961 to 1990, and the probabilities of CEs exhibiting extreme hot-dry, dry-high fire risk, and extreme hot-dry-high fire risk increased significantly by 74.8%, 60.5%, and 26.8%, respectively. Although most CEs occur more frequently in China at the end of the 21st century, the increase rates in low emissions are lower. These findings have implications for developing climate adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with increased CEs in critical geographical regions.

A Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment Model for a Road Network Based on Neural Networks and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

The frequency of extreme weather events has increased worldwide, leading to more intense natural disasters, which pose significant threats to human life and property safety. The main form of disaster occurrence is multi-hazard coupling and multi-hazard chaining. This paper constructs a road natural disaster risk assessment model using a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and neural network to quantitatively analyze road disasters with multiple hazards, and provides valuable insights for the predication of road natural disaster risk. Here, ten factors, including temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, elevation, slope, slope orientation, vegetation cover, geologic lithology, historical impact factors, and road density, were selected as input variables, and risk grade was selected as the output value (the evaluation results). The remaining hidden layers use the fully connected neural network. This model was first trained using historical data (from 2011 to 2021) obtained from road networks and natural disasters in Guangxi, China. Then, taking Lingchuan County as an example, the model was used to predict the risk of natural disasters on its roads, and, finally, the prediction accuracy of the model was determined by comparing the results with actual disaster situations. This study can provide theoretical support and technical operations for the development of subsequent early warning systems.

The John Mitchell Lecture 2023: road asset, socio-economic and fatality risk from debris flow

Fast-moving, rainfall-induced debris-flow events are relatively common in the mountainous areas of the UK. The mechanisms of such debris flows are considered as they bridge between slow mass movements and flood phenomena. A series of case studies of debris-flow impacts from Scotland and overseas is described. The assessment of landslide hazards and risks are essential precursors to landslide risk reduction. This is particularly the case when an authority is responsible for an infrastructure or building portfolio that may be affected by multiple hazards. A framework for risk acceptance is used to set the context, and the use of a semi-quantitative assessment to determine the sites of highest risk is described. These highest risk sites are subject to quantitative risk assessments for road-user fatalities as a result of debris flows. A novel approach is taken to assess the socio-economic risks and the use of fragility curves to articulate the vulnerability of road infrastructure, including the newly developed approach involving systems of assets, is also described. The effects of climate change are considered alongside likely social and/or demographic change. A strategic approach to landslide risk reduction is used to illustrate how a clear focus on the overall goal of risk reduction can be beneficial in developing an effective strategy before homing in on the desired outcomes and the generic approach to achieving those outcomes.

Sex differences in the relationship between serum total bilirubin and risk of incident metabolic syndrome in community-dwelling adults: Propensity score analysis using longitudinal cohort data over 16 years

BackgroundResearch on identifiable risks for metabolic syndrome (MetS) is ongoing, and growing evidence suggests that bilirubin is a potent antioxidant and cytoprotective agent against MetS. However, there have been conflicting results on the association between bilirubin and MetS. Our study aimed to validate the association by separately stratifying data for men and women in a longitudinal prospective study.MethodsData were derived from the Korean Genome Epidemiology Study provided by the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Data from 5,185 adults aged 40–69 years (3,089 men and 2,096 women) without MetS were analyzed. The participants were divided according to sex-specific quartiles of serum total bilirubin levels and followed up biennially for 16 years (until 2018). The log-rank test was used for obtaining the Kaplan-Meier curves of cumulative incidence of MetS according to sex-specific serum total bilirubin quartiles, and the hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for incident metabolic syndrome were analyzed with a multiple Cox proportional hazard regression analysis model, after propensity score matching for removing differences at baseline.ResultsWith increasing serum total bilirubin quartiles, the incidence rate per 1000 person-years proportionally decreased in both men and women. After propensity score matching and adjusting for confounding variables, the HRs (95% CIs) for MetS of the highest quartile in reference to the lowest quartile were 1.00 (0.80–1.24) for men and 0.80 (0.65–0.99) for women. Higher quartiles of serum total bilirubin showed significantly lower cumulative incidence of MetS in women (log-rank test p = 0.009), but not in men (log-rank test p = 0.285).ConclusionSerum total bilirubin levels were significantly inversely associated with MetS in women, but there was no significant association observed in men. Sex differences in the effects of serum total bilirubin should be noted when predicting incident MetS by sex in clinical settings.

Determinants of Mortality and Mid-Term Outcomes After Transcarotid Artery Revascularization and Transfemoral Carotid Artery Stenting.

The potential benefit of transcarotid artery revascularization (TCAR) over transfemoral carotid artery stenting (tfCAS) has been studied in the perioperative period with lower rates of stroke and death; however, data on mid-term outcomes are limited. We aimed to evaluate 3-year outcomes after TCAR and tfCAS and determine the primary predictors of 30-day and 1-year mortality following TCAR. Data from the Vascular Quality Initiative for patients undergoing TCAR or tfCAS from January 2016 to December 2022 were analyzed. 1:1 propensity score matching using the nearest-neighbor method was used to adjust baseline demographics and clinical characteristics. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox Proportional Hazard Regression were used to evaluate long-term outcomes. Iterative stepwise multiple logistic regression analysis and Cox Proportional Hazard Regression were used to identify predictors of 30-day and 1-year mortality, respectively, based upon preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative factors. A total of 70 237 patients were included in analysis (TCAR=58.7%, tfCAS=41.3%). Transcarotid artery revascularization patients were older and had higher rates of comorbid conditions and high-risk medical and anatomic features than tfCAS patients. Propensity score matching yielded 22 322 pairs with no major differences between groups except that TCAR patients were older (71.6 years vs 70.8 years). At 3 years, TCAR was associated with a 24% reduction in hazard of death compared with tfCAS (hazard ratio [HR]=0.76, 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.71-0.82, p<0.001), for both symptomatic and asymptomatic patients. This survival advantage was established in the first 6 months (HR=0.59, 95% CI=0.53-0.62, p<0.001), with no difference in mortality risk from 6 months to 36 months (HR=0.95, 95% CI=0.86-1.05, p=0.31). Transcarotid artery revascularization was also associated with decreased hazard for 3-year stroke (HR=0.81, 95% CI=0.66-0.99, p=0.04) and stroke or death (HR=0.81, 95% CI=0.76-0.87, p<0.001) compared with tfCAS. The top predictors for 30-day and 1-year mortality were postoperative complications. The primary independent predictor was the occurrence of postoperative stroke. Transcarotid artery revascularization had a sustained mid-term survival advantage associated over tfCAS, with the benefit being established primarily within the first 6 months. Notably, our findings highlight the importance of postoperative stroke as the primary independent predictor for 30-day and 1-year mortal. The ongoing debate over the superiority of TCAR compared to tfCAS and CEA has been limited by a lack of comparative studies examining the impact of pre-operative symptoms on outcomes. Furthermore, data are scarce on mid-term outcomes for TCAR beyond the perioperative period. As a result, it remains uncertain whether the initial benefits of stroke and death reduction observed with TCAR over tfCAS persist beyond one year. Our study addresses these gaps in the literature, offering evidence to enable clinicians to assess the efficacy of TCAR for up to three years. Additionally, our study seeks to identify risk factors for postoperative mortality following TCAR, facilitating optimal patient stratification.

Assessment of coastal and mangrove vulnerability in the Andaman Island, Indian Ocean

Coastal regions are highly susceptible to the effects of global warming, including rising atmospheric and sea surface temperatures, increased cyclone frequency, and sea level rise. Thus, it is imperative to examine coastal vulnerability to minimize the impact of multiple hazards and protect coastal resources, such as mangroves. Particularly in India studying the vulnerability of coastal zones of Andaman and Nicobar Islands which fall in seismic zone V is critical for conservation efforts. We conducted a vulnerability analysis of coastal zones impacted by the 2004 earthquake, causing varying degrees of ground upliftment and subsidence. We compared coastal vulnerability among sites that experienced uplift, no change, and subsidence (the southern portion). Our analysis utilized the Coastal and Mangrove Vulnerability Index (CVI and MVI) to measure and compare vulnerability in six zones distributed along uplift and subsidence gradient. High-resolution satellite imagery including WorldView-2, 3, and GeoEye-1 from year 2022 are utilized on this study. The CVI and MVI offers a good way to measure and compare vulnerabilities across sites and offer insights for better management. The CVI and MVI results indicate that approximately 34% of coastal grids and over 23% of mangrove grids across all zones are highly to extremely highly vulnerable. Subsided zones were found to be more vulnerable than uplifted zones. These findings suggest that large-scale natural disturbances such as tectonic displacement have the potential to impact coastal vegetation and mangrove cover can become even more vulnerable. In conclusion, our study emphasizes the importance of vulnerability analyses in coastal regions, especially in areas prone to seismic activity. Our findings have direct implications for conservation and restoration efforts and underscore the need for continued monitoring and mitigation efforts to safeguard coastal resources for long-term sustainability.

Risk of uveitis in autoimmune diseases patients treated with hydroxychloroquine: A population-based retrospective cohort study.

Uveitis is a common manifestation of various autoimmune diseases and can lead to severe visual impairment. Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) is an antimalarial drug that is also used to treat autoimmune diseases. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between HCQ use and the incidence of uveitis in patients with autoimmune diseases, as well as to identify potential risk factors for the development of uveitis in this study. We conducted a population-based cohort study using a nationwide database to investigate the incidence of uveitis in patients with autoimmune diseases who received HCQ treatment. We selected non-HCQ comparison cohort at a 1:1 ratio by propensity score matching on age, sex, index date, urbanization, income, comorbidities, and medications. The data were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards models, and propensity score matching (PSM) was used to reduce selection bias. Our study included 15 822 patients with autoimmune diseases. After 1:1 PSM, there were 4555 individuals in both the HCQ group (n = 4555) and the non-HCQ group (n = 4555). The multiple Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was used for the estimation of adjusted hazard ratios on uveitis. After PSM, the adjusted hazard ratio for the HCQ group was 0.74 (95% CI = 0.58-0.95). These findings suggest that HCQ may play a protective role in reducing the risk of uveitis in patients with autoimmune diseases, including rheumatoid arthritis, Sjogren's syndrome, and systemic lupus erythematosus groups. The Kaplan-Meier survival curves also showed a significantly lower incidence of uveitis in the HCQ group (log-rank = 0.0229) after PSM. HCQ use is associated with a lower incidence of uveitis in patients with autoimmune diseases. Further studies are needed to confirm this association and to investigate the underlying mechanisms.

Occupation-specific risk estimates for suicide and non-fatal self-harm from a Swedish cohort of male construction workers followed 1987–2018

ObjectivesWhile suicidal behaviour has become less prevalent in non-manual workers in recent decades, rates have increased in manual workers. We aimed to identify occupations within the construction industry with excess...

Mapping of Multiple Hazards in the Cilongkrang Sub-Watershed, Majalengka, Indonesia

The intensive agricultural activities in the Cilongkrang Sub-Watershed are causing environmental changes that can lead to various disasters. This study aims to map the spatial distribution of multiple hazards, including flash floods, erosion, and landslides. Three hazards selected because the critical condition of Cilongkrang Sub-Watershed as an upstream area caused the area to be prone to those hazards. The flash flood hazard model was created using the Flash Flood Potential Index (FFPI) method, which uses land use, slope, vegetation cover, and soil texture. The erosion hazard model was created using the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) method with parameters such as erosivity, erodibility, slope length factor, crop management index, and soil conservation index. The landslide hazard model was created using the Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation (SMCE) method, which uses slope, landform, land use, and soil texture. The results showed that the dominant flash flood-prone areas were in the medium class of 1.556 hectares, the erosion tended to be very low, which was 2.699,5 tons/ha/year, and The Argapura Sub-District encompasses multiple regions that are highly susceptible to landslides.

Assessing the relative threats from Canadian volcanoes

We assessed 28 Canadian volcanoes in terms of their relative threats to people, aviation, and infrastructure. The methodology we used was developed by the United States Geological Survey for the 2005 National Volcano Early Warning System. Each volcano is scored on multiple hazard and exposure factors, producing an overall threat score. The scored volcanoes are assigned to five threat categories, ranging from Very Low to Very High. We developed a knowledge uncertainty score to provide additional information about assessed threat levels; this does not affect the threat scoring. Two Canadian volcanoes are in the Very High threat category (Mt. Garibaldi and Mt. Meager). Three Canadian volcanoes are in the High threat category (Mt. Cayley, Mt. Price, and Mt. Edziza) and one volcano is in the Moderate threat category (Mt. Silverthrone). We compare the ranked Canadian volcanoes to volcanoes in the USA and assess current levels of monitoring against internationally recognized monitoring strategies. We find that even one of the best-studied volcanoes in Canada (Mt. Meager) falls significantly short of the recommended monitoring level and is currently monitored at a level commensurate with a Very Low threat edifice. All other Canadian volcanoes are unmonitored (apart from falling within a regional seismic network). This threat ranking has been used to prioritize hazard and risk assessment targets and to help select monitoring activities that will most effectively address the undermonitoring of Canadian volcanoes.