Climate change unevenly affects the dependence of multiple climate-related hazards in China

Abstract

Due to the complex natural environment and large regional differentiation in China, the dependence of multiple climate-related hazards on compound events (CEs) and their response to climate change are still unclear. Using daily meteorological observations (1961–2020) and climate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, statistically strong dependences among hot, dry, and high fire risk are revealed in China. The average temperature from 1991 to 2020 was 1 °C higher than that from 1961 to 1990, and the probabilities of CEs exhibiting extreme hot-dry, dry-high fire risk, and extreme hot-dry-high fire risk increased significantly by 74.8%, 60.5%, and 26.8%, respectively. Although most CEs occur more frequently in China at the end of the 21st century, the increase rates in low emissions are lower. These findings have implications for developing climate adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with increased CEs in critical geographical regions.