Multilateral Exchange Research Articles

The neglected importance of managing biological invasions for sustainable development

Abstract Biological invasions have substantial and rising social‐ecological impacts threatening human livelihoods and communities and hampering progress towards a just and equitable world. Currently, biological invasions are not adequately recognised and included in the UN Agenda 2030. Using a literature review conducted in Web of Science, we highlight the bias in available literature of biological invasions related to the UN Agenda 2030 and its Sustainable Development Goals. We find abundant scientific literature towards environmental and biodiversity related sustainability targets while other especially provisioning targets are less well represented. Subsequently, we discuss the risks of neglecting biological invasions within sustainable development and how invasive alien species can have changing and adverse effects through time counteracting the intended benefits at the time of introduction. Finally, we provide key recommendations for action at the international scale to ensure that biological invasions are adequately considered in sustainable development. Those recommendations include (1) acknowledgement of biological invasions as a key threat to sustainable development, (2) a call for stronger multilateral exchange under the umbrella of an adequately financed coordinating body and (3) appropriate implementation and resource provisioning for international monitoring, data infrastructure, data exchange and use of adequate indicators of biological invasions to streamline decision making based on a solid evidence base. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

A stable aggregate currency revisited: Highlighting some fundamental issues

A multicurrency numéraire is a weighted basket of currencies, where the weights sum to zero and all weights are positive. A stable aggregate currency is an optimal multicurrency numéraire, which is estimated using a minimum-variance portfolio optimisation. The variables of the portfolio optimisation are invariant currency indexes, which are multilateral exchange rates and are priced in terms of an equally-weighted basket of the currencies. This paper shows that there are some fundamental issues with the concept of a stable aggregate currency. Once these issues have been resolved, it is shown that the portfolio optimisation problem is infeasible.

Multilateral exchange rates: A multivariate regression framework

Currencies must be priced in terms of a numéraire when they are included in a regression model. The numéraire can be either a single-currency numéraire or a multicurrency numéraire: a weighted basket of numéraire currencies. Pricing currencies in terms of a multicurrency numéraire results in a system of multilateral exchange rates. A no-arbitrage condition enforces the movements in the system of multilateral exchange rates associated with the numéraire currencies to be a singular system, where the covariance matrix is singular and its ordinary inverse does not exist. Singular systems pose a methodological challenge in a multivariate regression model. This paper provides a solution to overcome this methodological challenge by imposing implicit restrictions on both the explanatory variables and the regression coefficients. In addition, the generalized least squares estimator is modified by replacing the ordinary inverse with the generalized inverse. The proposed solution provides a consistent multivariate regression model to explain the observed heterogeneity in the relative currency market.

Currency attribution for bilateral exchange rates: A decomposition of the moments

A bilateral exchange rate is the price of a base currency in terms of a quote currency. In this situation, how do international investors decide the contributions of both the base currency and the quote currency to the mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis of the movements in each bilateral exchange rate? For a group of currencies, each bilateral exchange rate can be decomposed into a difference between two multilateral exchange rates: a base-currency multilateral exchange rate minus a quote-currency multilateral exchange rate. In this paper, the decomposition of bilateral exchange rates is used to decompose the moments of the movements in bilateral exchange rates. The result is a quantitative methodology to perform currency attribution, where the mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis of the movements in each bilateral exchange rate can be attributed to the base currency and the quote currency.

Pollution in strategic multilateral exchange: Taxing emissions or trading on permit markets?

AbstractWe introduce polluting emissions in a sequential noncooperative oligopoly model of bilateral exchange. In one sector, a leader and a follower use polluting technologies which create negative externalities on the payoffs of strategic traders who belong to the other sector. By modeling emissions as a negative externality, we show that the leader pollutes more (less) than the follower when strategies are substitutes (complements). Then, we consider the implementation of public policies to control the levels of emissions, namely, two taxation mechanisms and a permit market. We study the effects of these public policies. Moreover, we determine the conditions under which these public policies can implement a Pareto‐improving allocation.

Synthetic money: Addressing the budget‐constraint issue

AbstractA synthetic currency attempts to mimic a target currency with an optimal portfolio of other currencies, without having a position in the target currency. The original construction methodology of a synthetic currency imposed a budget constraint such that the portfolio weights sum to a non‐zero value, say. However, a synthetic currency is a portfolio of invariant currency indexes, rather than a portfolio of currency positions. In this article, we show that invariant currency indexes are tradable multilateral exchange rates. Consequently, the sum‐to‐x budget constraint unintentionally creates a non‐zero position in the target currency. We address this budget‐constraint issue by replacing the sum‐to‐x budget constraint with a sum‐to‐zero budget constraint, which correctly enforces a zero position in the target currency. Once the budget‐constraint issue is addressed, investors are faced with the fact that synthetic money is unable to mimic significant currency‐specific movements in target currencies.

Impact of Belt and Road Initiative on India-south Asia Regional Trade Integration

Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a standout amongst the latest and remarkable regional economic integration strategies of Chinese government. This initiative incorporates South Asia which is a piece of Asian territory. From past researches we came to know that regional trade intensity among south Asian nations is low. The majority of the analysts finished up by computing the general list at beneath 0.5. Notwithstanding various multilateral and reciprocal Free Trade Agreements (FTA) exchange coordination did not increment attractively. India has reciprocal FTAs with every south Asian nation. Also this sub region is among the significant exchange accomplices of India. There are double suppositions of India about Chinese BRI initiative. In this research we found an answer of an inquiry that, regardless of whether BRI has sway on trade coordination among India and south Asian nations. We utilized a blended gravity model equation from Hayakawa et.al (2015) and Weerehewa (2009) inquire about papers to assess the aftereffects of variables.

Efecto del tipo de cambio real multilateral en las exportaciones e importaciones del Perú en el periodo 1991 – 2019

El presente trabajo de investigación busca determinar el efecto del tipo de cambio real multilateral sobre las exportaciones e importaciones del Perú en el periodo 1991 - 2019. Los datos empleados para realizar el análisis correspondiente son reales mensuales bajo el Test de raíz unitaria (Dickey Fuller) y Test de Cointegración de Johansen, con la finalidad de identificar la existencia de cointegración entre las variables. Los resultados indican que el efecto del tipo de cambio real multilateral en las exportaciones fue de 1.00 y muestran un efecto negativo comparado con las importaciones que fue de -1.11. Finalmente, entre los mecanismos que se pueden sugerir está mantener políticas macroeconómicas estables y buscar la diversificación del comercio exterior del Perú con otros países para aumentar las exportaciones de bienes nacionales.

Factors affecting Vietnam’s trade balance in the context of the global value chain

Trade balance is one of the important macro balances and has a strong impact on the balance of payments and the overall national economy. A country with a large trade deficit may experience lowered competitiveness of goods, export growth, and economic growth. This paper focuses on analyzing the core factors affecting Vietnam's trade balance in the context of global value chain accession. The author uses Bound-Testing method and ARDL model with data from 1990 to 2018 to identify factors affecting Vietnam's trade balance. The results show that, in the long term, Vietnam’s trade balance is affected by factors – ranked from the highest to the lowest – as follows: real GDP of trading partners; Vietnam’s real GDP; multilateral effective exchange rate; foreign added value in Vietnam's exported goods and FDI capital into Vietnam. From these important findings, the author proposes some implications for policymakers so as to improve the trade balance in the context of deeper participation in the global value chain.

The Relationship Structure of Global Exchange Rate Based on Network Analysis

The optimal threshold strategy is put forward for establishing a suitable network for analyzing the correlation among the different exchange rates. The 33 currencies of the world’s major countries and regions are analyzed by the method of network analysis, and the multilateral exchange rate correlation network is established based on the optimal threshold. Combining with geographical features and the exchange rate regime, it is found that the international currency has obvious community structure, which is composed of three levels: the core currency area, the arbitrage currency area and the shadow currency area. The conclusion reveals the structural characteristics of the Jamaica international monetary system.

Real exchange rate persistence and country characteristics: A global analysis

This paper examines the persistence of real exchange rates across 151 countries. We employ univariate time series techniques on a country-by-country basis allowing for deterministic structural breaks and nonlinearities in the adjustment process. Our findings suggest that bilateral exchange rates display higher rates of persistence than multilateral exchange rates, with the latter (former) exhibiting half-lives of less than 1 (2) year(s). Assessing country results by stage of economic development, we find that industrial countries display higher levels of exchange rate inertia than developing countries. We retrieve evidence indicating that higher inflation, nominal exchange rate volatility, trade openness and proximity to reference country are associated with faster rates of real exchange rate convergence. Conversely, international financial integration is found to only play a role at the country group level, with differential effects across cohorts.

Endogenous Market Formation and Monetary Trade: An Experiment

Abstract The theory of money assumes decentralized bilateral exchange and excludes centralized multilateral exchange. However, endogenizing the exchange process is critical for understanding the conditions that support the use of money. We develop a “traveling game” to study the emergence of decentralized and centralized exchange, theoretically and experimentally. Players located on separate islands can either trade locally, or pay a cost to trade elsewhere, so decentralized and centralized markets can both emerge in equilibrium. The former minimize trade costs through monetary exchange; the latter maximizes overall surplus through nonmonetary exchange. Monetary trade emerges when coordination is problematic, whereas centralized trade emerges otherwise. This shows that to understand the emergence of money it is important to amend standard theory such that the market structure is endogenized.

A Network Model of Multilateral Equilibrium Exchange Rates

The objective of the paper is to propose a new network model of multilateral equilibrium exchange rates based on network theory. The model introduces a topological component into the exchange rate analysis, consistently taking into account simultaneous higher-order interactions among all currencies. The article argues that the evolution of nominal exchange rates can be modeled on a network, where the nodes represent individual currencies and the links among them represent weighted returns on a hypothetical investment in each currency. For the purposes of this article, a multilateral exchange rate network is represented by multilateral dependent changes in bilateral exchange rates. The currency demand indicator (CDI), an elementary cell of the network model, is defined as weighted log-returns on each currency. The CDI provides a useful proxy for demand for each currency from other currencies and reflects all underlying balance of payments flows. The model identifies the stationary position of the exchange rate network, i.e. the episodes of minimal temporal variety of the CDI, when weighted returns on the links are close to zero. The stationary position of the exchange rate network points to the equilibrium levels of bilateral exchange rates for each currency pair. The model applies mainly to currencies with floating exchange rate regimes, although useful information can also be obtained for currencies with pegged exchange rates. For illustration, the model is applied to bilateral daily 1995-2016 exchange rates among130 currencies sourced from the Thomson Reuters Datastream.

BioModelKit - An Integrative Framework for Multi-Scale Biomodel-Engineering.

While high-throughput technology, advanced techniques in biochemistry and molecular biology have become increasingly powerful, the coherent interpretation of experimental results in an integrative context is still a challenge. BioModelKit (BMK) approaches this challenge by offering an integrative and versatile framework for biomodel-engineering based on a modular modelling concept with the purpose: (i) to represent knowledge about molecular mechanisms by consistent executable sub-models (modules) given as Petri nets equipped with defined interfaces facilitating their reuse and recombination; (ii) to compose complex and integrative models from an ad hoc chosen set of modules including different omic and abstraction levels with the option to integrate spatial aspects; (iii) to promote the construction of alternative models by either the exchange of competing module versions or the algorithmic mutation of the composed model; and (iv) to offer concepts for (omic) data integration and integration of existing resources, and thus facilitate their reuse. BMK is accessible through a public web interface (www.biomodelkit.org), where users can interact with the modules stored in a database, and make use of the model composition features. BMK facilitates and encourages multi-scale model-driven predictions and hypotheses supporting experimental research in a multilateral exchange.

Development of a Novel Global Surgery Course for Medical Schools

We endeavored to create a comprehensive course in global surgery involving multinational exchange. The course involved 2 weeks of didactics, 2 weeks of clinical rotations in a low-resource setting and 1 week for a capstone project. We evaluated our success through knowledge tests, surveys of the students, and surveys of our Zimbabwean hosts. The didactic portions were held in Sweden, and the clinical portion was primarily in Harare with hospitals affiliated with the University of Zimbabwe. Final year medical students from Lund University in Sweden, Harvard Medical School in the USA and the University of Zimbabwe all participated in didactics in Sweden. The Swedish and American students then traveled to Zimbabwe for clinical work. The Zimbabwean students remained in Sweden for a clinical experience. The course has been taught for 3 consecutive years and is an established part of the curriculum at Lund University, with regular participation from Harvard Medical School and the University of Zimbabwe. Participants report significant improvements in their physical exam skills and their appreciation of the needs of underserved populations, as well as confidence with global surgical concepts. Our Zimbabwean hosts thought the visitors integrated well into the clinical teams, added value to their own students' experience and believe that the exchange should continue despite the burden associated with hosting visiting students. Here we detail the development of a course in global surgery for medical students that integrates didactic as well as clinical experiences in a low-resource setting. The course includes a true multilateral exchange with students from Sweden, the United States and Zimbabwe participating regularly. We hope that this course might serve as a model for other medical schools looking to establish courses in this burgeoning field.

The Impact of Exchange Rate Movements on Trade Balance between Vietnam and Japan: J Curve Effect Test

The Impact of Exchange Rate Movements on Trade Balance between Vietnam and Japan: J Curve Effect Test

Intertemporal Competitive Equilibrium: A Computational Model of Intermediacy in Speculative Markets

Simultaneous research efforts made in 1962 by Gary Becker and Vernon Smith proved that neither rationality nor complete information are necessary market conditions to reach a competitive equilibrium. Although behavioral extensions to this framework have shown significant progress towards a coherent model of competitive price formation, economics continues to lack a generally valid model of decentralized price formation. I present a multilateral exchange model with individual adaptive learning and intermediation in speculative markets. Findings made show that boundedly rational intermediaries are able to reach competitive intertemporal outcomes without perfect foreknowledge of a market with acyclical random shifts in supply and demand. In other words, neither rationality nor complete information are necessary conditions to reach intertemporal allocative efficiency in a speculative market.

Exchange Rate Exposure : International Evidence from Daily Firm-Level Data

This paper examines impact of changes in the foreign exchange rate on firms’ stock returns in global markets. Using daily firm-level data for 14 international markets from January 2000 to December 2011, we find evidence that changes in the trade-weighted multilateral exchange rate systematically impact individual firms’ stock returns for all seven emerging markets and some advanced economies. Controlling for price factors such as market risk premium, Fama-French factors, the momentum, and the liquidity factor, we correct the upward bias of the estimation. Stocks in export-oriented economies are shown to considerably benefit from local currency depreciation. Further, in emerging markets, exchange rate movements affect larger firms with more intense global connections, but in advanced markets, they affect smaller firms with limited access to hedging to a larger extent. Long-run equilibrium relationships between stock markets and foreign exchange markets become stronger since the global financial crisis of 2008~2009.

От Гоа до Сямэня. О некоторых аспектах политического сотрудничества в рамках БРИКС

International relations system under contemporary conditions does not presuppose existence of a universal, generally accepted world order model. Concepts of the modern global order can stand in marked contrast to each other: the idea of a unipolar world led by the U.S. and the North Atlantic Community is opposed to the notion of a multipolar world with several equatable force poles. One of the phenomena illustrating the polycentrical world narrative is the emergence of BRIC group in the 2000s and its further evolution as BRICS in the 2010s. This explains the relevance of the chosen problem. The article considers major tracks of political cooperation within BRICS. The author analyses final documents of the latest BRICS summits, namely, in Fortaleza (2014), Ufa (2015) and Goa (2016) in terms of extension of the political agenda, also defining its reasons. Points of view expressed by both leading Russian and foreign experts, civic leaders and policymakers are taken into account. The work touches upon the problem of potential enlargement of BRICS, its functioning in the outreach format, as well as possibilities of institutionalisation of the grouping. At the same time, we also bear in mind the difference in approaches of the BRICS countries towards the inclusion of political issues to the agenda. In this piece, we utilise holistic approach to the chosen topic: various fields of activity within BRICS are scrutinised in their inextricable connection, as they determine one another. Thanks to the application of content analysis as a scientific method and the results obtained, it became possible to define the correlation between the attitude of the summit host country to the issues of political cooperation and reflection of the political agenda in the final declaration of the event. As for the conclusions of the research paper, the author presumes that common ideologemes and principles defining BRICS performance (such as supremacy of international law, pursuance of multipolar world, adherence to equal and mutually beneficial cooperation etc.) served as a prerequisite for actual work of the group: creation of the financial institutions, holding multiple meetings at different levels, expansion of bilateral and multilateral exchange. Along with that, not only is the economic vector compatible with the political track but it also becomes the catalyst for the expansion of the agenda. This can be confirmed through consistent increase of the number of political aspects of interaction among the BRICS countries in recent years.

Endogenous Market Formation and Monetary Trade: An Experiment

The theory of money assumes decentralized bilateral exchange and excludes centralized multilateral exchange. However, endogenizing the exchange process is critical for understanding the conditions that support the use of money. We develop a “travelling game” to study the spontaneous emergence of decentralized and centralized exchange, theoretically and experimentally. Players located on separate “islands” can either trade locally, or pay a cost to trade elsewhere, so decentralized and centralized markets can both emerge in equilibrium. The latter maximize trade meetings and are socially efficient; the former minimize trade costs through the use of money. In the laboratory, centralized exchange more frequently emerges when subjects perform diversified economic tasks, but also when they interact in large groups. This shows that to understand the emergence of money it is important to amend the theory of money such that the market structure is endogenized.