Real exchange rate persistence and country characteristics: A global analysis

Abstract

This paper examines the persistence of real exchange rates across 151 countries. We employ univariate time series techniques on a country-by-country basis allowing for deterministic structural breaks and nonlinearities in the adjustment process. Our findings suggest that bilateral exchange rates display higher rates of persistence than multilateral exchange rates, with the latter (former) exhibiting half-lives of less than 1 (2) year(s). Assessing country results by stage of economic development, we find that industrial countries display higher levels of exchange rate inertia than developing countries. We retrieve evidence indicating that higher inflation, nominal exchange rate volatility, trade openness and proximity to reference country are associated with faster rates of real exchange rate convergence. Conversely, international financial integration is found to only play a role at the country group level, with differential effects across cohorts.