Multi-regional Input-output Analysis Research Articles

Development of a multi-region blue/grey water management system -- Application to the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Inequality in water allocation and the shortage of water resources are two of the main critical components of multi-regional water system management. The impact of virtual water flows implied in inter-regional trade on multi-regional water resources issues is often ignored, especially on issues as complicated as water quality-based and water quantity-based issues. Therefore, a multi-region blue/grey water management system is developed in this study with a detailed case study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB). In detail, both blue water footprint (BWF) and grey water footprint (GWF) are considered in the proposed model. And the virtual water flows inherent in inter-provincial trade are quantified using a multi-regional input-output analysis. Based on this, the blue water and grey water metabolic systems are next assessed respectively in terms of system health state, regional resource inequality, and the water scarcity. In particular, the impact of virtual water transfers is also innovatively examined in this context. It shows that water pollution affects most of the YREB provinces (Shanghai (SH), Jiangsu (JS), Anhui, Hubei, Yunnan, Jiangxi). And SH and JS suffer from shortages of available water, with the water availability scarcity index for both provinces being above 0.4 during the study period. The transfer of virtual blue water (BW) exacerbates overall BW inequalities while alleviating water availability shortages in most provinces (except SH, Zhejiang, Chongqing, Sichuan). Differently, the transfer of virtual grey water (GW) has a mitigating effect on overall GW inequalities. And it has the highest impact on SH's water quality shortage, with a virtual grey water transfer impact coefficient of 23.64 in 2007. The findings provide a new pathway for coordinated water management intra- and inter-provinces, as well as a reference for the development of multi-regional water management policies.

Spatial distribution pattern of embodied natural resources use in China and its relationship with socioeconomic development: From an exergetic perspective

China is facing severe resource crisis, especially under the great regional disparities of resource endowment and economic development. Clarifying spatial distribution pattern of natural resources in China is critical for sustainable resource management. However, a unified assessment framework at regional level is still lacking. This study establishes a comprehensive framework by combining exergy accounting and multi-region input-output analysis to investigate embodied natural resources (ENR) utilization at regional level from 2012 to 2017. Tapio analysis and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index are applied to reveal decoupling states and identify driving factors. The results show that the eastern regions required more ENR than the western regions. ENR per unit GDP in the northern regions was larger than that in the southern regions, while ENR per capita in the middle Yellow River and the eastern regions was larger than the western regions. ENR demands in most regions decoupled from economic development during 2012–2017. Fixed investment intensity and economic development were the major contributors of ENR growth, while natural resources intensity and R&D efficiency were the major negative factors. Based on such results, this study provides substantial policy recommendations for different regions to alleviate their resource crises.

Multi-regional input–output analysis of the relationship between environmental footprints and the import dependence of Japanese prefectures

This study examined the proposition that a subnational region with a low dependence on an external supply of goods and services has low environmental impacts based on consumption-based accounting. Thus, we investigated the relationship between the level of economic dependence of Japanese prefectures on domestic and international imports of goods and services and the environmental footprints (EFs) of their households. EFs were calculated for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and use of land, water, and materials using datasets for the year 2015. We estimated the EFs through an environmentally extended input–output analysis using multi-regional input–output datasets, EXIOBASE3. We conducted linear regression analyses of the prefectural household EFs with their socioeconomic, demographic, and geographical factors, including import ratios representing the import dependence of prefectures. The results indicated that the prefectures with a low import ratio, all other factors being equal, had low indirect GHG, land, water, and material footprints. In addition, we found that food and food-related consumptions were dominant contributors to these footprints. When the GHG emissions from household fuel combustion, electricity use and household waste incineration were included in the GHG footprint, the emissions from household energy use were the largest contributor to the footprint. The results indicate that substituting locally sourced foodstuffs and renewable energy for internationally imported food products and non-renewable energy/fuels could reduce multiple environmental impacts of households in the prefectures.

Environmental and socio-economic impacts of new plant breeding technologies: A case study of root chicory for inulin production.

In Europe, root chicory and other plants are cultivated for their prebiotic food fiber, inulin, which boosts the growth of beneficial gut bacteria and stimulates the human immune system. CHIC, a H2020 project, develops new chicory variants which produce more and reported to be healthier inulin as well as medicinal terpenes. This paper presents an environmental and socio-economic assessment of the whole value chain of the new chicory variants and their derived products using a case study based in the Netherlands. Two scenarios based on new chicory variants using new plant breeding technologies (NPBT) are analyzed and impacts thereof are compared to the reference scenario; the current commercial inulin process from conventional chicory. Both scenarios show higher inulin content, but the inulin adsorption process differs. While one aims to optimize inulin yield, the other one explores the potential of a multipurpose use, yielding inulin and health beneficial terpenes. Methodologically, we employ multi-regional input-output (MRIO) analysis to estimate additional economic benefits, added value and job creation, while by means of life cycle assessment (LCA) effects on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and primary energy demand are derived. Both methods, MRIO and LCA, are well suited to analyze the raised issues and draw on the same data. Generally, the results highlight the importance of inulin production at a national and EU-level in the reference scenario. In case of the two scenarios, we find that the related socio-economic impacts are much higher than in the reference scenario and thus highlight their ability to boost economic activity and increase competiveness of the EU, i.e. over 80% of the generated value added stays in the EU. In terms of environmental impacts, the two scenarios show lower GHG emissions and primary energy demand due to the higher efficiencies of the process in the scenarios compared to the reference inulin process. Additionally, regarding the goal of climate neutral production, we find that the majority of GHG emissions stem from the electricity mix and natural gas demand. Replacing these sources of energy with more renewable ones will contribute to this goal.

Revealing the impact of a water-economy nexus-based joint tax management policy on the environ-economic system: An advanced exploration of double dividend strategies and multi-scale response mechanisms

Economic growth is constrained by water scarcity, and a unified policy analysis framework is required to enhance the coordinated development of the environ-economic system from the perspective of wastewater management. Thus, a multi-scale water-economic double dividend mechanism model (MWED) is first developed to (i) derive strategies for simultaneously achieving water scarcity mitigation and economic increase through compounding wastewater tax (WT) policies and reduced value-added tax (RVT) policies; (ii) explore the internal response mechanisms at the sectoral scale in the central region; and (iii) reveal the responses of economic output and multiple water resources in external regions under the cascading effects. This integrated approach of a computable general equilibrium model, an ecological network analysis, and a multi-regional input-output analysis is applied to Shanxi Province, China, a representative water-scarce region. The double dividend strategies of WT_6 yuan/ton*RVT_2%, WT_8 yuan/ton*RVT_2.5%, and WT_10 yuan/ton*RVT_3% were conducive to alleviating water scarcity and stimulating economic growth by adjusting the production structures or upgrading treatment technologies to reduce wastewater discharge, reducing the use of water-intensive energy sources to condense direct water consumption, and enhancing the connection between low water consumption sectors and advantageous economic sectors to optimize the virtual water network structure. Based on complex inter-regional relationships, these cascading effects can stimulate the economic output of other provinces and alleviate prevailing water scarcities by increasing virtual water inflows in economically developed regions and decreasing direct water consumption in economically undeveloped regions. The ability of water-rich regions to reconcile differences in water resource endowments can be further strengthened.

Trade-driven relocation of ground-level SO2 concentrations across Chinese provinces based on satellite observations.

The influence of trade on ground-level SO2 concentrations in China was evaluated based on multiregional input-output (MRIO) analysis, using the ozone monitoring instrument (OMI) SO2 columns and SO2 profiles from an atmospheric chemical and transport model, MOZART-4. The provincial sum of ground-level SO2 concentrations has a good consistency with the provincial SO2 emissions (R = 0.65, p < 0.01). The provincial SO2 concentrations presented strong spatial variations, with a range of 5.1-50.6μg/m3 and an average of 19.7μg/m3 across China. The international trade increased the SO2 concentrations in all of the provinces and increased the national population-weighted SO2 (PWM-SO2) concentration by 2.9μg/m3. Interprovincial trade within China decreased the ambient SO2 concentrations in Beijing, Tianjin, and Chongqing and the provinces in southeast and central China, but increased SO2 in the remaining provinces of China. In general, interprovincial trade decreased the national PWM-SO2 concentration by 5.3μg/m3.

Application of multi-region input-output analysis to examine biosecurity risks associated with the global shipping network

The vast majority of globally traded cargo is transported via maritime shipping. Whilst in port for loading and unloading, these ships can pick up local marine organisms with internal ballast water or as external biofouling assemblages and subsequently move these to destination far beyond their natural ranges. Over the past decades, this mechanism has led to the establishment of hundreds of non-indigenous species (NIS) around global coastlines. Marine NIS cause significant environmental, economic, cultural and human health impacts. Taking effective steps to preventing their dispersal and establishment is an enduring challenge for governments and conservation agencies around the world. Here we use international commodity trade data and a Nobel-Prize-winning economic analysis technique to develop a novel approach for assessing global marine NIS transfer risks. We show that by tracing the origins and destinations of seaborne trade connections, and the nature of the traded commodities, we can predict the strength of shipping vectors and associated marine biosecurity risks. We demonstrate the utility of our approach via a case-study, where we trace the spread of a hypothetical marine NIS from Japan and show the congruence of our model results with documented invasion histories from that region. Our study demonstrates that biosecurity risk can be assessed using established economic modelling frameworks on the basis of monetary transaction data alone, and without the need for detailed itineraries of the many thousand vessels making up the global commercial fleet. Novel, cost-effective tools are needed to mitigate biosecurity risks associated with maritime trade, and to meet conservation goals while enabling economic prosperity. The modelling framework presented here can be expanded to incorporate future risk factors, life-history traits of particular NIS of concern, and even adapted to simulate the dispersal of terrestrial pests or disease agents.

Transfer patterns and driving factors of China’s energy use in trade: Evidence from multiregional input–output analysis and structural decomposition analysis

China consumes a large amount of fossil fuels to support its economic development, making it the world’s largest carbon emitter. To provide a solid basis for relevant policies and measures for energy conservation and emissions reduction, the evolution patterns of China’s energy use in trade were detailed analyzed in this article. The results showed that the ratio of net embodied energy flows to total energy consumption declined during the investigated period. The highly developed areas (such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong) imported embodied energy, while the least developed provinces (e.g., Guizhou and Yunnan) and areas with heavy industries (Hebei, Inner Mongolia and Shanxi) exported embodied energy. In terms of decomposition results, energy coefficients and per capita demand played dominant roles in determining energy consumption changes. Only the changes in the production trade structure represented obvious and continued negative spillover effects on energy decreases. The highly and least developed regions showed a reverse changing process in determining embodied energy flows, which was mainly due to structural factor changes. Moreover, per capita demand continued to boost the net embodied energy outflows of the provinces, with the economic structure relying highly on heavy industries. Finally, we proposed some effective policy suggestions by considering regional heterogeneity. The novelty of this paper is integrating the multi-regional input–output analysis and additive structural decomposition analysis to investigate the trajectory and drivers of China’s energy consumption footprint, respectively. Furthermore, driving factors behind embodied energy transfers were also analyzed.

Rethinking mobility strategies for mega-sporting events: A global multiregional input-output-based hybrid life cycle sustainability assessment of alternative fuel bus technologies

Sustainability has been enshrined in the official claims of mega sporting events, and scholarly debates persist on how to achieve environmental stewardship and a prolonged legacy. Revitalizing the public transportation system with alternative fuel bus technologies has speculated significant environmental and socio-economic benefits to the host nation. This paper thus attempts to quantify and analyze the environmental, social, and economic impacts of alternative fuel buses throughout their entire life cycle stages to support the thought process of sustainable mobility practices in hosting mega-events. A hybrid, multi-regional Input-Output (MRIO) based life cycle sustainability assessment (LCSA) model is developed to assess three bus types: compressed natural gas (CNG), electric buses (EBs), and diesel buses (DBs). The results are investigated in terms of a combination of various manufacturing and end-of-life scenarios by encompassing impacts embedded in the global supply chains. A scenario-based analysis is then conducted to assess the impacts and associated benefits of EB compared to alternative bus technologies in host nations, during and post-event, taking the upcoming FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022™ as a case. The results for the MRIO analysis demonstrate the impacts embedded in the global supply chains and on-site benefits of adopting alternative fuel buses may compromise each other, as impacts might be shifted towards other countries (through manufacturing and end-of-life, in exporting countries) while minimizing the operation phase impacts in the importing country, Qatar. Even though the economic benefits of EBs are higher than the CNG buses, and with almost similar social benefits, the environmental impact of the CNG buses inside the host nation is much less than the DBs. This would thus make CNG buses a more balanced alternative than the DBs and EBs. The outcome of this research stays as an eye-opener to the local organizing committee of mega-events to rethink the current sough alternatives for the use of electric transit with more balanced alternatives as proposed in the study, to achieve the mandated carbon neutrality and environmental footprint mitigation goals.

Unfolding the evolution of carbon inequality embodied in inter-provincial trade of China: Network perspective analysis

The mismatch between carbon transfer and economic benefits embodied in inter-provincial trade generates carbon inequality among provinces. Exacerbating carbon inequality would diminish the effectiveness of carbon policy, thereby challenging the realization of carbon neutrality target in China. Combining the network analysis and multi-regional input-output (MRIO) analysis, this paper depicted the unbalanced relationship between carbon transfer and value-added flow embodied in inter-provincial trade of China during 2012–2017 to shed light on the evolution features of trade-attributed carbon inequality from a multi-dimensional perspective. The research findings reveal that the carbon inequality embodied in inter-provincial trade of China has increased significantly during the study period, as the coefficient of structural equivalence between carbon transfer network and value-added transfer network decreased from 0.772 in 2012 to 0.634 in 2017. Different environmental regulation intensities and economic development levels among provinces are the main factors triggering the trade-attributed carbon inequality. During the surveyed years, some provinces such as Beijing, Tianjin, and Jiangsu have changed their roles from the drivers of carbon inequality to the leaders of green trade. Whilst some provinces located in the Northwest China which include Ningxia, Gansu, and Inner Mongolia are still placed in inferior positions in trade, and remain as the victims suffering from carbon inequality. The detected provincial communities present geographic adhesiveness and they are basically consistent with national urban agglomeration development planning. The research findings urge the need to shift from local carbon reduction to collective governance of carbon reduction, and provide supportive references for Chinese governments to develop integrated solutions and tailor-made policies towards equitable and sustainable development.

Energy-pollutant nexus for wastewater treatment in China based on multi-regional input-output analysis

The heterogeneity of water and energy resource endowments and increasingly closer trade links among regions make it challenging to attain synergy in energy conservation and main pollutant reduction . This paper quantified the provincial energy intensity of COD removal in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs), tracked the sectoral and regional water pollutant (COD) transfers beneath the provincial economic transactions based on the multi-regional input-output analysis, and evaluated the energy saving and loss in different provinces based on an energy-pollutant nexus assessment framework. We found that economic trade could transfer local pollutant reduction pressure to distant regions through the national economic system. The critical VCOD importers (Beijing and Zhejiang) and exporters (Jiangxi and Heilongjiang) highlighted the necessity of emission reduction responsibility assignment from both the demand and the supply side. The VCOD was transferred from higher energy intensity provinces to lower energy intensity provinces, which contributed to a 1.42 × 10 8 kWh energy loss of COD removal nationally. Our results showed that from the energy-pollutant nexus perspective, some of the energy conservation and pollutant reduction goals were not always consistent. This study may help optimize the spatial regulation of national energy conservation and pollution reduction in a more integrated and systematic way.

How sustainable is liquefied natural gas supply chain? An integrated life cycle sustainability assessment model

• LNG exports are expected to continue to expand, with global estimates ranging from 450 to 700 million tons per annum by 2040. • A global, hybrid life cycle sustainability assessment of the LNG supply chain is performed. • MRIO analysis, Aspen HYSYS, and LNG maritime transport tools are integrated for the first time. • LNG loading (export terminal) is found to be responsible for the highest carbon footprint. • Around 73% of human health impact comes from SRU and TGTU units. Integrating sustainability into the distribution network process is a significant problem for any industry hoping to prosper or survive in today's fast-paced environment. Since gas is one of the world's most important fuel sources, sustainability is more important for the gas industry. While such environmental and economic effects have been extensively researched in the literature, there is little emphasis on the full social sustainability of natural gas production and supply chains in terms of the triple bottom line. This research aims to perform the first hybrid life cycle sustainability assessment (LCSA) of liquefied natural gas and evaluate its performance from the natural gas extraction stage to LNG regasification after delivery through maritime transport carriers. LCSA is used for estimating the social, economic, and environmental impacts of processes, and our life cycle model included the multi-region input–output analysis, Aspen HYSYS, and LNG maritime transport operations sustainability assessment tools. The results spot the light on the most contributors of CO 2 -eq emission. It is found that LNG loading (export terminal) is the source that generated the highest carbon footprint, followed by the MDEA sweetening unit with the contribution of 40% and 24%, respectively. Socially, around 73% of human health impact comes from SRU and TGTU units which are the most contributors to the particulate matter emission. Based on the interpretation of life cycle results, the environmental indicators show better performance in the pre-separation unit and LNG receiving terminal representing a sustainability factor equal to 1. In terms of social and economic impacts, the natural gas extraction stage presents the best performance among all other stages, with a sustainability factor equal to 1. Based on this study's findings, an integrated framework model is proposed. Various suggestions for sustainability strategies and policies that consider business sustainability and geopolitics risk are presented.

Carbon footprint and voting preferences of a council

Accounting for carbon should be undertaken at multiple scales to create awareness of the negative environmental impacts of consumption. We undertake a comprehensive consumption-based supply-chain assessment of a community's emissions for a selected council area in the Greater Sydney region of Australia using multi-regional input-output analysis, by constructing a customised input-output table with data from the Australian Household Expenditure Survey on items related to food, beverages, housing, transport, energy, clothing & footwear, household appliances & furniture, medical services, communication, recreation and education. We quantify the Scope-1, -2, and -3 emissions of households in the council area, and put the results in the context of voting preferences of the Council community. Our results suggest that despite left-wing voter preferences, the consumption habits of green voters carry high carbon footprints – the per-capita carbon footprint of Inner West residents is about 1.3 times more than the footprint of residents in the Rest of Greater Sydney. Furthermore, about two-thirds of the footprint is embodied in upstream supply chains for satisfying consumption. This result is significant in that it means that if policy addressed only energy-related direct emissions, it would be missing a majority of the population's CO2e footprint.

Global value chain participation and trade-induced energy inequality

Different ways of participating in global value chain (GVC) result in the disparity of international-trade-induced resource and environmental costs, hence inequality between trading economies. This study delves into the trigger and mechanism towards trade-induced energy inequality. First, we explore the trade-induced energy use and energy inequality using multi-regional input-output analysis and the production decomposition analysis; then we apply econometric analysis to further explore how different ways of participating in GVC affects a country's trade-induced energy use, and illustrate the mechanism of trade-induced energy inequality. Our results uncover that, globally, trade induced-energy use per value-added in developed countries constantly remain the lowest, while that of the developing nations is higher. Our econometric analysis further demonstrates that forward-linkage GVC participation can significantly reduce the domestic energy use per value-added, whilst backward-linkage participation may increase energy use per value-added, indicating different effects through forward- and backward-linkage as a key driving factor for trade-induced energy inequality. Our heterogeneity examination results further reveal that the influencing mechanisms of GVC participation on energy use per added value vary greatly with energy type, trade mode and each nation's resource endowment. Implications of our findings may be that optimizing GVC participation is beneficial to domestic resource conservation and environmental protection, especially for developing countries, for which escalating up their ranks of GVC could be crucial to reduce their trade-induced resources and environmental costs.

Economic Impact of Investment Scenarios in the McClellan-Kerr Arkansas River Navigation System

The McClellan–Kerr Arkansas River Navigation System (MKARNS) is challenged by an aging infrastructure and by limited maintenance budgets, all of which cause transportation delays. In this study, the Maritime Transportation Simulator (MarTranS), which is a hybrid of agent-based modeling, discrete-event simulation, system dynamics, and multiregional input-output analysis, was adopted to model the relationship between the components of the system and economic impact factors. Real-world scenarios were analyzed to explore the economic impacts of various patterns of investment in the MKARNS. These scenarios include a base scenario (in which the system infrastructure remains unchanged and no future investments are made), investment scenarios (e.g., investing in deepening of the navigation channel, port expansion, and lock/dam rehabilitation), and a demand-change scenario focused on the impacts of the Panama Canal expansion. The results reveal that the MKARNS under current circumstances is not sustainable in the long term and that future economic investment is needed if it is to continue operations. In addition, among the different system components, locks/dams are the primary sources of system delays, so these should be targeted for investment and reconstruction to sustain and enhance the beneficial economic impacts of the system.

Production-Based and Consumption-Based Accounting of Global Cropland Soil Erosion.

The effective control of cropland soil erosion is urgent for all countries because of its threat to global food security. Cropland soil erosion is caused by agricultural production and driven indirectly by consumption. Analyzing the causes and preventive strategies from the consumption side is essential for soil erosion control. However, there is not yet sufficient research or practice. In this study, we estimated global cropland soil erosion with the revised universal soil loss equation, allocated it to specific types of crops, and quantified the cropland soil erosion footprint of the economies with a multiregional input-output analysis model. Our results showed that developed economies, usually importing cropland soil erosion from developing or agriculturally developed economies, are the beneficiaries in the current crop trading system. The European Union is the largest net importer, while Brazil is the largest exporter. The indirect and induced sectors are the main contributors, consuming approximately 70.48% of the total cropland soil erosion. Our results revealed the region- and product-specific contributors that could inform the reduction of global cropland soil erosion for sustainable food production and consumption.

Economic Interdependence of Indonesia in Global Value Chain: An Analysis of Multiregional Input-Output

Indonesia’s resilience to economic crises originating from the outside was due to the high domestic consumption as the main support for the economy. On the other hand, Indonesia does not have a significant role in the global value chain because of the low amount of export value and low product competitiveness. Using Multiregional Input-Output (MRIO) analysis, this study aims to map the interdependence and role of Indonesia in trade relations with major partner countries and see the magnitude of the economic influence of other countries on the domestic economy. The data used is the 35 economic sector MRIO tables issued by the Asian Development Bank in 2008 and 2018 consisting of 63 countries. The results indicate that Indonesia has low linkages in international trade with major partners. In addition, most of Indonesia's export commodities are intermediate goods that have low value-added. Furthermore, the simulation conducted in the study outlines that Indonesia is increasingly unaffected by the GDP changes of trading partner countries.

Energy-food nexus scarcity risk and the synergic impact of climate policy: A global production network perspective

Carbon neutrality has been a global consensus to navigate away from catastrophic climate change. In particular, such climate changes also generate inevitable influences on economic securities, such as energy security and food security, through energy structure transformation etc. Energy and food are essential elements for human beings, and they are naturally linked to sustainable development. Usually, emergency events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, may threaten energy security or food security in a region, the risk of which would be amplified due to the energy-food nexus effect. This is no doubt also a challenge and an opportunity for countries to achieve carbon neutrality. To realize the stable pathways to carbon neutrality, it is important to analyze the energy scarcity risk and food scarcity risk of each industry and country as well as the nexus effect between energy and food. In this paper, we combine multi-regional input-output (MRIO) analysis with network control analysis (NCA) to investigate the dependence degree of each country and region on energy and food resources as well as the risk transmission network of the energy-food scarcity nexus. Base on this, the impact of climate policy on energy-food nexus scarcity risk is analyzed. We found some interesting conclusions. First, regarding the risk transmission network of the energy-food scarcity nexus, China, Germany and the US are the main generators, and the main receptors are Taiwan, Mexico and the Netherlands. These results imply that international trade transfers energy/food scarcity to geographically distant regions via the international supply chain. Second, as for the scarcity risk per unit of output, small economies that rely heavily on imported energy or food (such as Cyprus and Luxemburg) have the highest scarcity risk and are among the top receptors of transmitted risks. We suggest collaborative conservation and management of energy and food resources. Third, the analyses that assess the emission intensity and scarcity risk find that implementation of emission control policies could significantly decrease initial energy scarcity risk and energy-food nexus scarcity risk. This implies that besides emission reduction achievement, climate policies bring co-benefits of energy-food nexus security. Moreover, the co-benefit of energy and food nexus security for low income economies associated with climate policy is much higher than that for high income economies.

Implications of the consumption-based accounting for future national emissions budgets

ABSTRACT As a complement of production-based accounting (PBA), consumption-based accounting (CBA) provides an alternative perspective to understand national emissions and responsibilities for global climate change. Existing studies assessed historical national emissions under CBA. However, how CBA might guide future mitigation under the Paris Agreement goals has not been well understood. By combining global multi-region input-output analysis and the equity principle of ‘equal cumulative per capita emissions’ (ECPCE), this study explores potential implications of CBA for future national emissions budgets to limit global warming to below 1.5°C. Historically, consumption-based greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were higher than production-based emissions in most developed countries while lower in many developing countries. When CBA is used instead of PBA to allocate emissions budgets by ECPCE, future GHG mitigation burdens would become more stringent in 70% of Annex I (mostly developed) countries but slightly smaller in 55% of non-Annex I (mostly developing) countries. In particular, more than half of Annex I countries might need to achieve negative GHG budgets under 1.5°C. Our analysis emphasizes that, as net emission importers, developed countries could strive to pay equal attention to achieving consumption-based and production-based emissions reductions, and strengthen technological and financial support to developing countries that undertake production outsourcing. As net emission exporters, with international support and domestic investment, developing countries could pragmatically promote energy structure optimization and technological innovation to accelerate the decarbonization of production. To support the Paris Agreement goals, mitigation contributions initiated from the perspective of CBA could also be welcomed. Key policy insights Developed countries shift emissions to developing countries through international trade. CBA increases historical responsibilities of developed countries for climate warming from the PBA assessments. Compared to PBA, CBA has clear implications on future national emissions budgets under responsibility-based allocations, but does not change the urgency of national mitigation required to achieve the Paris Agreement goals. Allocated by ECPCE, future GHG budgets for over 50% of the world’s countries would be run out before 2040 under 1.5°C at the 2015 emissions rates, using either CBA or PBA. According to different roles in global supply chains, developed countries should step up support to help developing countries improve emissions and energy intensities, which is a key to reducing emissions embodied in trade.

Embodied Carbon in China's Export Trade: A Multi Region Input-Output Analysis.

With the rapid growth of China’s export trade and increasing pressure of domestic carbon emission reduction, the issue of carbon embodied in export trade has attracted increasing attention from academic circles. This paper has constructed a calculation model for embodied carbon in China’s export trade by using the multi-region input-output model and the international input-output data from the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) database in order to calculate the amount of embodied carbon. Our objective is to analyze the main source industry and specific sectors of embodied carbon in China’s export trade, and to provide a quantitative basis for emission reduction under the “carbon neutrality” strategy. The findings reveal that the embodied carbon in China’s export trade mainly comes from the secondary industry, which accounts for more than 90% of the total embodied carbon in export trade, while the proportions of embodied carbon in the primary industry and the tertiary industry are relatively low, about 1% and 5–7%, respectively. In terms of specific sectors, the crop and animal production and hunting sectors have the largest share (over 60%) of embodied carbon in the export trade of the primary industry; in the export trade of the secondary industry, the main sources of embodied carbon are the manufacturing sector and the power, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply sectors, respectively accounting for around 50% and 45% of the total embodied carbon in the export trade of the secondary industry; as for the tertiary industry, the transport and storage sectors have the largest share of embodied carbon in the export trade, which is around 70%. Based on the above research results, this paper has provided relevant policy recommendations, which are optimizing the export structure, improving the energy consumption structure and the carbon emissions trading system.