Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network Research Articles

An enhanced non-iterative real-time solver via multilayer perceptron for on-board component-level models

The real-time on-board component-level model (CLM) of gas turbine engines (GTEs) is an important foundation for fault-tolerant control and health management. However, traditional iterative solving algorithms typically rely on the multiple computations of gas-path thermodynamic parameters, which seriously limits their practical application. In this paper, aiming to improve the real-time performance of CLM, an enhanced non-iterative real-time solver (ENRS) method is proposed. It has combined an input selection strategy, an under-sampling supplemental enhancement training (USET) technique, and a multilayer perceptron (MLP) network. Compared with the existing CLM solving methods, its innovations are as follows: (1) a novel framework for directly solving CLM is proposed, which helps get rid of the dilemma of increased time consumption due to multiple iterations. (2) an enhanced training process is designed for the MLP network, which helps improve the adaptivity to the full flight envelope and all engine states, especially to reduce the maximum error. Simulation tests eventually show that the ENRS effectively improves the real-time performance of CLM in practical applications, and maintains solution accuracy and robustness.

Acquisition and recognition of Lycoris spp. fingerprint patterns using artificial intelligence-enhanced electrochemical sensors

This study developed an AI-enhanced electrochemical sensing platform for the acquisition and recognition of fingerprint patterns from 17 Lycoris species. Differential pulse voltammetry (DPV) was employed to record the electrochemical fingerprints of the Lycoris pollen extracts using graphene oxide-modified screen-printed carbon electrodes. Principal component analysis (PCA) revealed distinct clustering and separation of species based on their fingerprints, with the first three PCs explaining 78.6 % of the total variance. A multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network achieved an overall accuracy of 96.2 % in classifying the Lycoris species, while a support vector machine (SVM) model attained an accuracy of 94.8 %. The AI-based classification results showed high congruence with the traditional palynological analysis. This study demonstrates the potential of integrating electrochemical sensors with AI techniques for rapid, cost-effective, and automated plant species identification.

Enhancing Suggestion Detection in Online User Reviews through Integrated Information Retrieval and Deep Learning Approaches

In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, using web platforms as a communication medium and decision-making tool in online commerce has become widely acknowledged. User-generated comments, reflecting positive and negative sentiments towards specific items, serve as invaluable indicators, offering recommendations for product and organizational improvements. Consequently, the extraction of suggestions from mined opinions can enhance the efficacy of companies and organizations in this domain. Prevailing research in suggestion mining predominantly employs rule-based methodologies and statistical classifiers, relying on manually identified features. However, a recent trend has emerged wherein researchers explore solutions grounded in deep learning tools and techniques. This study aims to employ information retrieval techniques for the automated identification of suggestions. To this end, various methodologies, including distance measurement approaches, multilayer perceptron neural networks, support vector machines, regression logistics, convolutional neural networks utilizing TF-IDF, Bag of Words (BOW), and Word2Vec vectors, along with keyword extraction, have been integrated. The proposed approach is assessed using the SemEval2019 dataset to extract suggestions from the textual content of online user reviews. The obtained results demonstrate a notable enhancement in the F1 score, reaching 0.76 compared to prior research. The experiments further suggest that information retrieval-based approaches exhibit promising potential for this specific task.

MvMRL: a multi-view molecular representation learning method for molecular property prediction.

Effective molecular representation learning is very important for Artificial Intelligence-driven Drug Design because it affects the accuracy and efficiency of molecular property prediction and other molecular modeling relevant tasks. However, previous molecular representation learning studies often suffer from limitations, such as over-reliance on a single molecular representation, failure to fully capture both local and global information in molecular structure, and ineffective integration of multiscale features from different molecular representations. These limitations restrict the complete and accurate representation of molecular structure and properties, ultimately impacting the accuracy of predicting molecular properties. To this end, we propose a novel multi-view molecular representation learning method called MvMRL, which can incorporate feature information from multiple molecular representations and capture both local and global information from different views well, thus improving molecular property prediction. Specifically, MvMRL consists of four parts: a multiscale CNN-SE Simplified Molecular Input Line Entry System (SMILES) learning component and a multiscale Graph Neural Network encoder to extract local feature information and global feature information from the SMILES view and the molecular graph view, respectively; a Multi-Layer Perceptron network to capture complex non-linear relationship features from the molecular fingerprint view; and a dual cross-attention component to fuse feature information on the multi-views deeply for predicting molecular properties. We evaluate the performance of MvMRL on 11 benchmark datasets, and experimental results show that MvMRL outperforms state-of-the-art methods, indicating its rationality and effectiveness in molecular property prediction. The source code of MvMRL was released in https://github.com/jedison-github/MvMRL.

Predicting the scouring depth around a rectangular pier with a round nose by artificial intelligence methods

Local scour around bridge piers constitutes a significant phenomenon in river engineering. The development of artificial intelligence models and their capabilities has resulted in the widespread adoption of these models. In the experiments, various factors were considered, encompassing three different pier angles (0, 5, and 10°), six submerged vanes with two angles (20 and 30°) aligned with the flow direction, three vane heights (0, 1.25, and 2.5 cm) on the bed, and a collar. The study evaluated the performance of distinct machine learning models, namely, the multi-linear regression (MLR) model, radial basis function neural network (RBF), multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP), support vector machine (SVM), and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in predicting the scouring depth. Application of these models (RBF, MLP, ANFIS, SVM, and MLR) yielded positive outcomes, with corresponding R2 values of 0.99, 0.98, 0.97, 0.96, and 0.90 for scour depth assessment. The results demonstrated that the RBF artificial neural network model exhibited excellent generalizability in comparison to the other models. It consistently provided accurate predictions with minimal errors across varying training set sizes. Conversely, the ANFIS model exhibited limited generalizability compared to the other models, as reducing the training set size resulted in a significant increase in prediction errors during testing. Furthermore, although the MLR model demonstrated good generalizability, its prediction error was relatively high compared to the alternative models.

Improving wind power forecast accuracy for optimal hybrid system energy management

Abstract Due to its renewable and sustainable features, the wind energy is growing up around the word. However, the wind speed fluctuation induces the intermittent character of the generated wind power. Thus, wind power estimation, through wind speed forecasting, is very inherent to ensure an effective power scheduling. Four wind speed predictors based on deep learning networks and optimization algorithms, were developed. The designed topologies are the multilayer perceptron neural network, the long short-term memory network, the convolutional short-term memory network and the bidirectional short-term neural network coupled with the Bayesian optimization. The models performance was evaluated through evaluation indicators mainly, the root mean squared error, the mean absolute error and the mean absolute percentage. Based on the simulation results, all of them show a considerable prediction results. Moreover, the combination of the the long short-term memory network and the optimization algorithm is more robust on wind speed forecasting with a mean absolute error equal to 0.23 m/s. The estimated wind power was investigated for an optimal Wind/PV/Battery/Diesel energy management. The handling approach lies on the continuity of the load supply through the renewable sources as priority, the batteries on second order and finally the diesels. The proposed management strategy respects the designed criteria with satisfactory contribution percentage of the renewable sources equal to 71%.

Case Study for Predicting Failures in Water Supply Networks Using Neural Networks

This study deals with the prediction of recurring failures in water supply networks, a complex and costly task, but essential for the effective maintenance of these vital infrastructures. Using historical failure data provided by Companhia de Água e Esgotos da Paraíba (CAGEPA), the research focuses on predicting the time until the next failure at specific points in the network. The authors divided the failures into two categories: Occurrences of New Faults (ONFs) and Recurrences of Faults (RFs). To perform the predictions, they used predictive models based on machine learning, more specifically on MLP (Multi-Layer Perceptron) neural networks. The investigation unveiled that through the analysis of historical failure data and the consideration of variables including altitude, number of failures on the same street, and days between failures, it is possible to achieve an accuracy greater than 80% in predicting failures within a 90-day interval. This demonstrates the feasibility of using fault history to predict future water supply outages with significant accuracy. These forecasts allow water utilities to plan and optimize their maintenance, minimizing inconvenience and losses. The article contributes significantly to the field of water infrastructure management by proposing the applicability of a data-driven approach in diverse urban settings and across various types of infrastructure networks, including those pertaining to energy or communication. These conclusions underscore the paramount importance of systematic data collection and analysis in both averting failures and optimizing the allocation of resources within water utilities.

Effectiveness of an ensemble technique based on the distributivity equation in detecting suspicious network activity

With the growing complexity and frequency of cyber threats, there is a pressing need for more effective defense mechanisms. Machine learning offers the potential to analyze vast amounts of data and identify patterns indicative of malicious activity, enabling faster and more accurate threat detection. Ensemble methods, by incorporating diverse models with varying vulnerabilities, can increase resilience against adversarial attacks. This study covers the usage and evaluation of the relevance of an innovative approach of ensemble classification for identifying intrusion threats on a large CICIDS2017 dataset. The approach is based on the distributivity equation that appropriately aggregates the underlying classifiers. It combines various standard supervised classification algorithms, including Multilayer Perceptron Network, k-Nearest Neighbors, and Naive Bayes, to create an ensemble. Experiments were conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed hybrid ensemble method. The performance of the ensemble approach was compared with individual classifiers using measures such as accuracy, precision, recall, F-score, and area under the ROC curve. Additionally, comparisons were made with widely used state-of-the-art ensemble models, including the soft voting method (Weighted Average Probabilities), Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), and Histogram-based Gradient Boosting Classification Tree (HGBC) and with existing methods in the literature using the same dataset, such as Deep Belief Networks (DBN), Deep Feature Learning via Graph (Deep GFL). Based on these experiments, it was found that some ensemble methods, such as AdaBoost and Histogram-based Gradient Classification Tree, do not perform reliably for the specific task of identifying network attacks. This highlights the importance of understanding the context and requirements of the data and problem domain. The results indicate that the proposed hybrid ensemble method outperforms traditional algorithms in terms of classification precision and accuracy, and offers insights for improving the effectiveness of intrusion detection systems.

Enhancing multi-class lung disease classification in chest x-ray images: A hybrid manta-ray foraging volcano eruption algorithm boosted multilayer perceptron neural network approach

ABSTRACT One of the most used diagnostic imaging techniques for identifying a variety of lung and bone-related conditions is the chest X-ray. Recent developments in deep learning have demonstrated several successful cases of illness diagnosis from chest X-rays. However, issues of stability and class imbalance still need to be resolved. Hence in this manuscript, multi-class lung disease classification in chest x-ray images using a hybrid manta-ray foraging volcano eruption algorithm boosted multilayer perceptron neural network approach is proposed (MPNN-Hyb-MRF-VEA). Initially, the input chest X-ray images are taken from the Covid-Chest X-ray dataset. Anisotropic diffusion Kuwahara filtering (ADKF) is used to enhance the quality of these images and lower noise. To capture significant discriminative features, the Term frequency-inverse document frequency (TF-IDF) based feature extraction method is utilized in this case. The Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network (MPNN) serves as the classification model for multi-class lung disorders classification as COVID-19, pneumonia, tuberculosis (TB), and normal. A Hybrid Manta-Ray Foraging and Volcano Eruption Algorithm (Hyb-MRF-VEA) is introduced to further optimize and fine-tune the MPNN’s parameters. The Python platform is used to accurately evaluate the proposed methodology. The performance of the proposed method provides 23.21%, 12.09%, and 5.66% higher accuracy compared with existing methods like NFM, SVM, and CNN respectively.

Rheological behavior of 3D printed concrete: Influential factors and printability prediction scheme

The rheological properties of cementitious materials play a crucial role in determining the printability for extrusion-based 3D concrete printing. This study develops data-driven machine learning (ML) models to predict two key rheological parameters - plastic viscosity (PV) and yield stress (YS) of 3D printable cementitious composites based on the mixture composition and time after water addition. A systematic experimental study is conducted by varying the contents of cement, fly ash, silica fume, sulfoaluminate cement, superplasticizer, and water-to-binder ratio, and time after water addition. The measured rheological data is used to construct a database for training predictive models including linear regression, support vector regression, random forest, extreme gradient boosting, and multi-layer perceptron neural network. The extreme gradient boosting model achieves the highest prediction accuracy with low root mean square error and all coefficients of determination exceeding 0.9 for both plastic viscosity and yield stress. Importance analysis identifies the most influential parameters affecting the rheological properties. A printability classification scheme is proposed using the model predictions by defining a printable zone of PV and YS. The data-driven framework is validated to effectively predict printability of new mixtures without trial-and-error. This study demonstrates the potential of ML models to accelerate the design and optimization of 3D printable cementitious materials.

Measuring volume fractions of a three-phase flow without separation utilizing an approach based on artificial intelligence and capacitive sensors.

Many different kind of fluids in a wide variety of industries exist, such as two-phase and three-phase. Various combinations of them can be expected and gas-oil-water is one of the most common flows. Measuring the volume fraction of phases without separation is vital in many aspects, one of which is financial issues. Many methods are utilized to ascertain the volumetric proportion of each phase. Sensors based on measuring capacity are so popular because this kind of sensor operates seamlessly and autonomously without necessitating any form of segregation or disruption for measuring in the process. Besides, at the present moment, Artificial intelligence (AI) can be nominated as the most useful tool in several fields, and metering is no exception. Also, three main type of regimes can be found which are annular, stratified, and homogeneous. In this paper, volume fractions in a gas-oil-water three-phase homogeneous regime are measured. To accomplish this objective, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and a capacitance-based sensor are utilized. To train the presented network, an optimized sensor was implemented in the COMSOL Multiphysics software and after doing a lot of simulations, 231 different data are produced. Among all obtained results, 70 percent of them (161 data) are awarded to the train data, and the rest of them (70 data) are considered for the test data. This investigation proposes a new intelligent metering system based on the Multilayer Perceptron network (MLP) that can estimate a three-phase water-oil-gas fluid's water volume fraction precisely with a very low error. The obtained Mean Absolute Error (MAE) is equal to 1.66. This dedicates the presented predicting method's considerable accuracy. Moreover, this study was confined to homogeneous regime and cannot measure void fractions of other fluid types and this can be considered for future works. Besides, temperature and pressure changes which highly temper relative permittivity and density of the liquid inside the pipe can be considered for another future idea.

Performance assessment of packed bed systems for humidity control in greenhouse applications: An experimental-based AI modeling approach

Optimal humidity control is essential for enhancing crop yields and ensuring favorable growth conditions in greenhouse agriculture. Packed bed systems have emerged as effective tools for regulating humidity levels, yet accurately assessing their performance remains unexplored, especially for temperate oceanic climates. This paper presents a packed-bed system with water as the working fluid to increase the humidity level during the winter for greenhouse cultivation. Accordingly, an experimental setup is developed, and a detailed parametric study is conducted. Further, an artificial intelligence (AI)-based modeling approach is developed for evaluating the performance of packed bed systems for greenhouse applications under varying environmental conditions with various inlet air flowrates, such as 176 m³/hr, 286 m³/hr, 383 m³/hr, and 428 m³/hr. Operating with water at an average temperature of 15.7 °C and a flow rate of 12.8 kg/min, the system achieves a significant 50% increase in humidity ratio, transitioning from an inlet humidity ratio of 6 g/kgda to an outlet ratio of 9 g/kgda, indicating its efficiency in elevating air humidity levels. The multi-layer perceptron neural network, trained with 112 non-repeated datasets and employing a 2-10-10-1 topology, demonstrates high accuracy and resilience in estimating Δωa values for the packed bed system, with predictions closely aligning with experimental data and exhibiting a maximum discrepancy within ± 2.5%. This research contributes to the advancement of precision agriculture practices by providing a comprehensive framework for assessing and improving humidity control in greenhouse environments.

On the additive artificial intelligence-based discovery of nanoparticle neurodegenerative disease drug delivery systems.

Neurodegenerative diseases are characterized by slowly progressing neuronal cell death. Conventional drug treatment strategies often fail because of poor solubility, low bioavailability, and the inability of the drugs to effectively cross the blood-brain barrier. Therefore, the development of new neurodegenerative disease drugs (NDDs) requires immediate attention. Nanoparticle (NP) systems are of increasing interest for transporting NDDs to the central nervous system. However, discovering effective nanoparticle neuronal disease drug delivery systems (N2D3Ss) is challenging because of the vast number of combinations of NP and NDD compounds, as well as the various assays involved. Artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML) algorithms have the potential to accelerate this process by predicting the most promising NDD and NP candidates for assaying. Nevertheless, the relatively limited amount of reported data on N2D3S activity compared to assayed NDDs makes AI/ML analysis challenging. In this work, the IFPTML technique, which combines information fusion (IF), perturbation theory (PT), and machine learning (ML), was employed to address this challenge. Initially, we conducted the fusion into a unified dataset comprising 4403 NDD assays from ChEMBL and 260 NP cytotoxicity assays from journal articles. Through a resampling process, three new working datasets were generated, each containing 500,000 cases. We utilized linear discriminant analysis (LDA) along with artificial neural network (ANN) algorithms, such as multilayer perceptron (MLP) and deep learning networks (DLN), to construct linear and non-linear IFPTML models. The IFPTML-LDA models exhibited sensitivity (Sn) and specificity (Sp) values in the range of 70% to 73% (>375,000 training cases) and 70% to 80% (>125,000 validation cases), respectively. In contrast, the IFPTML-MLP and IFPTML-DLN achieved Sn and Sp values in the range of 85% to 86% for both training and validation series. Additionally, IFPTML-ANN models showed an area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) of approximately 0.93 to 0.95. These results indicate that the IFPTML models could serve as valuable tools in the design of drug delivery systems for neurosciences.

Machine-learning classifier models for predicting sarcopenia in the elderly based on physical factors.

As the size of the elderly population gradually increases, musculoskeletal disorders, such as sarcopenia, are increasing. Diagnostic techniques such as X-rays, computed tomography, and magnetic resonance imaging are used to predict and diagnose sarcopenia, and methods using machine learning are gradually increasing. This study aimed to create a model that can predict sarcopenia using physical characteristics and activity-related variables without medical diagnostic equipment, such as imaging equipment, for the elderly aged 60 years or older. A sarcopenia prediction model was constructed using public data obtained from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Models were built using Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine (SVM), XGBoost, LightGBM, RandomForest, and Multi-layer Perceptron Neural Network (MLP) algorithms, and the feature importance of the models trained with the algorithms, except for SVM and MLP, was analyzed. The sarcopenia prediction model built with the LightGBM algorithm achieved the highest test accuracy, of 0.848. In constructing the LightGBM model, physical characteristic variables such as body mass index, weight, and waist circumference showed high importance, and activity-related variables were also used in constructing the model. The sarcopenia prediction model, which consisted of only physical characteristics and activity-related factors, showed excellent performance. This model has the potential to assist in the early detection of sarcopenia in the elderly, especially in communities with limited access to medical resources or facilities. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2024; 24: 595-602.

A comparative study of neural network architectures for software vulnerability forecasting

Abstract The frequency of cyberattacks has been rapidly increasing in recent times, which is a significant concern. These attacks exploit vulnerabilities present in the software components that constitute the targeted system. Consequently, the number of vulnerabilities within these software components serves as an indicator of the system’s level of security and trustworthiness. This paper compares the accuracy, trainability and stability to configuration parameters of several neural network architectures, namely Long Short-Term Memory, Multilayer Perceptron and Convolutional Neural Network. These architectures are utilized for forecasting the number of software vulnerabilities within a specified timeframe for a specific software product. By evaluating these neural network models, our aim is to provide insights into their performance and effectiveness in vulnerability forecasting.

NCLDR: Nearest-Neighbor Contrastive Learning with Dual Correlation Loss for Dimensionality Reduction

Dimensionality reduction is an efficient method for alleviating the issue of dimensionality in high-dimensional data. As a popular self-supervised learning method, contrastive learning has recently garnered considerable attention. In this paper, we propose NCLDR: Nearest-Neighbor Contrastive Learning with Dual Correlation Loss for Dimensionality Reduction, a novel dimensionality reduction method that is porting a contrastive learning framework to the specific task of dimensionality reduction. Firstly, NCLDR uses the nearest-neighbor to construct feature pairs from the training set itself. Afterwards, to decorrelate feature variables that produce representations invariant across such pairs, a basic multi-layer perceptron (MLP) network architecture with a dual correlation loss function is designed. Compared to most dimensionality reduction methods, NCLDR bypasses the complexity of optimizing kNN graphs and facilitates the embedding of out-of-sample data. Additionally, it also alleviates the issue of “dimensional collapse” in the low-dimensional representation space. Finally, experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves significant improvements over state-of-the-art dimensionality reduction methods.

Analysing LULC transformations using remote sensing data: insights from a multilayer perceptron neural network approach

ABSTRACT The study examines the complex dynamics of changes in LULC over three decades, focused on the years 1992, 2002, 2012, and 2022. The research highlights the significance of comprehending these alterations within the framework of environmental and socio-economic consequences. The changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have significant and far-reaching effects on ecosystems, biodiversity, and human livelihoods. This study offers useful information for politicians, conservationists, and urban planners by examining historical patterns and forecasting future changes. The study utilized a Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network (MLP-NN), a well-known machine learning technique that excels at collecting intricate patterns. This model’s design had three layers: input, hidden, and output. The model underwent 10,000 iterations during its training process, and a thorough statistical analysis was conducted to assess the impact of each driving component. The MLP-NN model demonstrated impressive performance, with a skill measure of 0.8724 and an accuracy rate of 89.08%. The accuracy of the LULC estimates for 2022 was verified by comparing them with observed data, ensuring the model’s reliability. Moreover, the presence of evidence likely was found to be a significant factor that had a substantial impact on the accuracy of the model. The study highlights the effectiveness of the MLP-NN model in accurately predicting changes in LULC. The model’s exceptional accuracy and proficiency make it a powerful tool for future LULC forecasts. Identifying the primary causes of model performance and understanding their implications may help to enhance land management strategies, encourage spatial planning, guide accurate decision-making, and facilitate the development of policies that align with sustainable growth and development.

Data-driven modeling of the aerodynamic deformation and drag for a freely moving drop in the sub-critical Weber number regime

Accurate prediction of the dynamics and deformation of freely moving drops is crucial for numerous droplet applications. When the Weber number is finite but below a critical value, the drop deviates from its spherical shape and deforms as it is accelerated by the gas stream. Since aerodynamic drag on the drop depends on its shape oscillation, accurately modeling the drop shape evolution is essential for predicting the drop’s velocity and position. In this study, 2D axisymmetric interface-resolved simulations were performed to provide a comprehensive dataset for developing a data-driven model. Parametric simulations were conducted by systematically varying the drop diameter and free-stream velocity, achieving wide ranges of Weber and Reynolds numbers. The instantaneous drop shapes obtained in simulations are characterized by spherical harmonics. Temporal data of the drag and modal coefficients are collected from the simulation data to train a Nonlinear Auto-Regressive models with eXogenous inputs (NARX) neural network model. The overall model consists of two multi-layer perceptron networks, which predict the modal coefficients and the drop drag, respectively. The drop shape can be reconstructed with the predicted modal coefficients. The model predictions are validated against the simulation data in the testing set, showing excellent agreement for the evolutions of both the drop shape and drag.

Advanced fusion of MTM-LSTM and MLP models for time series forecasting: An application for forecasting the solar radiation

Accurate time series forecasting has become increasingly important across various domains such as finance, energy, and medicine. This study introduces an innovative hybrid model that leverages the power of neural networks, precisely Many To Many LSTM (MTM LSTM) and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), to improve time series forecasting accuracy. In this new combination, we trained network MTM LSTM to approximate the target at each step, and finally, we used network MLP to combine these approximations. To perform the evaluation, we made a forecast for the amount of solar energy radiation in the city of Mashhad, Iran. The experiment results concerning MSE and MAE showed that the proposed method with five lags outperforms the standard models.We hypothesize that MTM LSTM can effectively capture solar radiation's intricate temporal dependencies and nonlinearity. At the same time, MLP can enhance function approximation by modeling complex interactions, resulting in improved forecast accuracy. By employing the hybrid MTM LSTM and MLP model, we achieved improved accuracy in predicting solar energy radiation, which has significant implications for the renewable energy sector and its energy management and planning applications. This research advances time series forecasting techniques, highlighting the effectiveness of combining neural networks to address complex and dynamic patterns in time-dependent data.Overall, our findings underscore the potential and efficacy of the proposed hybrid model as a robust tool for accurate time series forecasting in various domains, supporting effective decision-making and planning processes.

A time-frequency-based interval decomposition ensemble method for forecasting gasoil prices under the trend of low-carbon development

Given that gasoil plays a crucial role in carbon emission reduction, in this paper we propose a time-frequency-based interval decomposition ensemble (TFIDE) learning approach to forecast gasoil prices and capture the nonlinear impact of the global trend of low-carbon development on gasoil prices. The proposed method integrates bivariate empirical mode decomposition (BEMD), an interval multilayer perceptron (IMLP) network and a threshold autoregressive interval (TARI) model. First, we use BEMD to decompose interval-valued weekly gasoil prices into a finite number of complex-valued intrinsic mode function (IMF) components and a residual component. Second, we apply the IMLP model to forecast the IMFs and the TARI model to predict the residual part with predictors of carbon reduction technology and carbon emission concerns. After that, we combine all the forecasting results to generate the final gasoil price interval forecasting results. Our empirical results show that our carbon reduction technology variable improves middle-frequency IMF forecasting and that carbon emission concerns have a nonlinear impact on long-term gasoil price intervals. Furthermore, the proposed TFIDE approach outperforms other competing methods under different accuracy measurements.