Multi Hazard Research Articles

Compound and cascading droughts and heatwaves decrease maize yields by nearly half in Sinaloa, Mexico

The impact of droughts and heatwaves on agriculture losses has been exacerbated by the occurrence of compound and cascading events. Here we present a study that evaluates the impact of these events both as singly and as compound and cascading on maize yield in Sinaloa Mexico from 1990 to 2022, using the WOFOST crop model. Drought and heatwave events were identified using the Standardized Precipitation Index and threshold method, respectively. Results show that yield reduction (25%) is found during extreme drought events, emphasizing the vulnerability of maize farming to unfavorable drought conditions. While heatwaves alone did not show a significant impact on maize yields, the compound and cascading droughts and heatwaves amplified the loss of maize yields by up to 44% compared to normal conditions. This study highlights the need for adaptive strategies in agriculture to sustain food security during extreme events, especially in the context of multi hazard framework.

Delineation of Multi hazards vulnerable zone using the Geospatial approach: A micro-region level study in Indian Coastal Sundarban

The Sundarban, a region with a rich history dating back to the emergence of the first civilization, has faced numerous hazards impacting the lives and livelihoods of its inhabitants. Preserving this invaluable ecosystem and ensuring the safety of millions of residents, planners require a thorough risk assessment for this area. This study utilizes a GIS-based weight overlay analysis (WOA) and a statistical fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) alongside a frequency ratio model, considering sixteen factors, to identify a vulnerable zone in the Indian Sundarbans. The resulting risk map, validated with an ROC curve showing over 80% accuracy, categorizes factors into five zones based on their contribution to risk. The analysis at the mouza level reveals that 36.84% of Sundarbans' blocks and 20.28% of resident mouzas are classified as very high risk. Approximately 17.08% of the population in these areas, totalling 350,618 individuals, requires special attention from various levels of government. Notably, Sagar, Namkhana, Patharpratima, Kultali, Basanti, Gosaba, Hingalgang, and Kakdwip exhibit varying degrees of risk, influenced by factors such as effective sea level rise, tidal range, and population density. This study provides crucial insights for decision-makers, government planners, and disaster management, aiding in the identification of high-risk populations and areas that demand immediate preservation efforts. The significance of this research lies in its potential to guide actions that safeguard both the Sundarbans ecosystem and its inhabitants, emphasizing the need for targeted interventions to address the specific challenges faced by this unique region.

An integration of geospatial and fuzzy-logic techniques for multi-hazard mapping

A hazard is a natural occurrence that might harm humans, animals or the environment. It may cause loss of life, illness or other health consequences, property damage, social and economic crisis or environmental degradation. Many places of the world are at risk from one or more disasters. Although many studies have concentrated on single hazards, there is a need for integrated evaluations of multi-hazards for more effective land management. A selection of datasets and methods, such as meteorological data, satellite images, and GIS, were used to create the risk assessment maps. The parameters for multi-hazard assessment are mainly considered as rainfall, slope, elevation, and land use/land cover and create a map in a GIS environment. For a particular region, multi-hazards can be produced by integrating maps of several hazard assessments. The objective of this study is an integration of geospatial and fuzzy-logic techniques for multi-hazard mapping. Extensive parts of Gujarat state (India) experience a wide range of natural hazards: floods, soil erosion, drought, and earthquakes. This research creates and evaluates individual and group multi-hazard maps to visualize the spatial variation of hazards in Gujarat state, India. The calculated four individual hazard maps have been categorised into five classes: very-low, low, moderate, high, and very high. The multi hazard map has been classified into sixteen classes using the GIS unsupervised. This study aims to improve disaster preparedness, enhance land management, or guide decision-making for disaster risk reduction. This study can be helpful in the future to engineers, planners, and local governments in the field of spatial planning and natural disaster management.

A general method for multi–hazard intensity assessment for cultural resources: Implementation in the region of Eastern Macedonia and Thrace, Greece

The protection of cultural resources from natural and human–induced hazards has been an area of intense scientific interest over time. The literature highlights that, despite the intensive research efforts to date, there is a lack of a commonly accepted hazard assessment framework that supports decision–making to limit their negative effects and contribute to the protection of cultural heritage. In this paper a general method for assessing the intensity of multiple hazards on cultural resources is developed and applied. The proposed method utilizes a) the capabilities of Geographic Information Systems (GIS), b) open geospatial hazard data and c) an original 7–step integrated method developed in this research. Key features of the proposed method are its ability to consider and synthesize intensities of both quantitative hazards such as earthquake, flood and hazards expressed on a qualitative scale, such as wildfire and landslide. The proposed method is applied to assess the exposure of 918 cultural resources of the Region of Eastern Macedonia and Thrace, Greece, to earthquake, flood, landslide, sea level rise, wildfire, soil erosion and industrial–technological accident and develop an aggregate multi–hazard intensity index (mhii) for each of the cultural resources in this region. The proposed method can be applied to hazard intensity assessment for resources other than cultural, such as the human capital of a region, infrastructure, environment, and economic facilities. This provides researchers, scientists, and managers of cultural sites with a tool to set priorities for the design of appropriate mitigation strategies to reduce the negative impacts of hazards.

Multi Hazard Analysis of Ponorogo Regency Disaster Based on Geographic Information System

Ponorogo regency has dangers to several types of disasters such as floods, landslides, tornadoes, land fires, and droughts. Based on data from BNPD from the period 2000 - 2020, Ponorogo Regency has experienced 123 landslides, and 39 flood disasters. The approach used in this study is multi-hazard disaster. The purpose of the study is 1.) Analyze the spread of flood hazard levels in Ponorogo Regency. 2.) Analyze the spread of the danger level of landslide disasters in Ponorogo Regency.3.) Analyze the distribution of disaster hazard levels in Ponorogo Regency using a multi hazard index. The research methods conducted in this study are stacking and improvement, while for multi-hazard modeling of disasters using VCA tables. Data processing in this study is divided into 3 stages, namely parameter data processing, disaster hazard data modeling, and multi-hazard disaster modeling. The accuracy test is conducted on the usage data, and the sampling method is a random sampling method. Validation tests were conducted on data from modeling the hazards of floods and landslides. The results of this study are a disaster parameter data map, a flood hazard map, a landslide hazard map, and a multi-hazard disaster map. Based on the results of modeling, multi-hazard disaster has an area that is low hazard class has the widest area of 90,773.55 Ha (65%), The moderate hazard class has an area of 45,438.55 Ha (33%). The high hazard class has an area of 2,957.56 Ha (12%). The multi-hazard class is determined by the result of a combination of landslide and flood hazard classes, for example the combination of low and high hazard classes will produce a moderate hazard class. Therefore, the distribution of areas from the multi-hazard class of disasters is greatly influenced by the distribution of areas of both types of disasters.

Multi Hazards in The Democratic Republic of Congo

Multi Hazards in The Democratic Republic of Congo

An improved MCDM combined with GIS for risk assessment of multi-hazards in Hong Kong

Hong Kong frequently suffers from multi-hazards such as floods, muddy-water flows and landslides induced by rainstorms. This study presents an improved multi criteria decision making (MCDM) approach with integrating the interval numbers into fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) to assess multi-hazard risks. To illustrate the efficiency of the improved MCDM method, the AHP, interval-FAHP and analytical network process (ANP) were incorporated into a geographical information system (GIS, abbreviated as AHP-GIS, interval-FAHP-GIS, and ANP-GIS) to assess the risks of multi-hazards (e.g., floods, muddy-water flows, and landslides) in Hong Kong. The assessed multi-risks indicated that the percentages of areas with a high risk of flood, muddy-water flow, and landslide were more than 15%, 17%, and 18%, respectively. The results demonstrated that MCDM methods considered multi-criteria contributions on multi hazards. Different assessment factors contributed different importance on different multi-hazard risks. The comparison indicates that interval-FAHP-GIS perform better than AHP-GIS and ANP-GIS in capturing high-risk areas. The interval-FAHP-GIS method adopts interval fuzzy numbers instead of crisp numbers in AHP-GIS to reflect the degree of importance of assessment factors, which increases the accuracy of the assessed multi-risks.

Disaster risk reduction and G20: A major step forward

Disaster risks are increasing and changing their nature. The global risk landscape is evolving as new risks – many of them arising from cascading and inter-connected hazards – are arising. While significant achievements have been made to reduce loss of lives, economic and asset damages are still on the increasing trend. G20, which started as the major economic group meeting, has emerged over years as an influential political forum. While there have been several attempts to bring disaster risk reduction agenda to G20, the issue has not been addressed in a comprehensive and sustained manner. A new working group on Disaster Risk Reduction has been established under India's Presidency. This paper analyzes G20 and DRR risk reduction agenda's evolution, provides insights on India's contribution to the thematic area, and suggest future interventions required at G20. While Indian Prime Minister's 10-points agenda sets the future DRR interventions targets, India's leadership in DRR can be seen in terms of local level risk management framework, resilient infrastructure, financing of disaster risk management, social protection, people's engagement, and resource management. In addition to that, response to COVID-19 through the Disaster Management Act has set up a new milestone for multi hazards and all hazards risk management, including complex and cascading risks. Five specific areas that are urgently required are: 1) investment in resilient infrastructure, 2) digital infra and data management protocol, including open data, open governance, 3) use of disruptive and emerging technologies, 4) enhancement of technology transfer and market creation through private sector involvement, and 5) fostering youth innovation and entrepreneurship in DRR. This will help not only the G20 nations, but also contribute to other vulnerable countries and communities.

Influence of sociodemographic variables on psychological impact and resilience among children living in multi hazard Region

Influence of sociodemographic variables on psychological impact and resilience among children living in multi hazard Region

Multi-hazard risk assessment in process industries: State-of-the-Art

Multi-hazard accidents in process industries, which can cause more severe consequences compared to individual accidents, have gained growing attention from administrators and scholars in recent years. With the development of process industries and the expansion of the urban area, high-risk zones may emerge in densely populated areas. Accurate risk assessment of the multi-hazard accidents in process industries is essential for protecting properties, human life, and the environment. This study reviews past studies on the risk assessment of three types of multi-hazard accidents in process industries: Natech events, domino effects, and concurrent hazards. The development trends of risk assessment of multi-hazard accidents are analyzed and the research gasps of past research are identified. Based on the identified gaps in previous research, future perspectives on multi-hazard research in process industries are discussed. To improve the assessment methods for multi-hazard risks, more advanced basic models and applicative risk analysis methods are required. Considering multi-hazard interactions and other factors are also important for process plants against multi hazards. This study can potentially contribute to developing better risk assessment models of multi-hazard accidents and therefore safer and resilient process industries.

Assessment of safety measures against seismic and fire hazards in the University of Buner

Safety in schools and universities is essential to guarantee occupants' protection from natural and human-made hazards. An existing building hazard assessment provides the scope to understand the vulnerability situation and recommend safety measures. This study was conducted on buildings within the University of Buner located in the Buner district of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. Two potential hazards earthquake and fire were considered. UN-Habitat Tools were used for the assessment of safety for multi hazards. To assess the seismic and fire hazards vulnerability, the university structures were assessed for four aspects: planning, architectural, structural and non-structural. It was identified that the building's safety compliance is only 43% as a whole and, in particular, 33% vulnerable to seismic risk and 27% susceptible to fire hazard and requires rehabilitation measures to build the resistance and resilience of the structure to guarantee the safety of the occupants.

A multi-hazard map-based flooding, gully erosion, forest fires, and earthquakes in Iran

We used three state-of-the-art machine learning techniques (boosted regression tree, random forest, and support vector machine) to produce a multi-hazard (MHR) map illustrating areas susceptible to flooding, gully erosion, forest fires, and earthquakes in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, Iran. The earthquake hazard map was derived from a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. The mean decrease Gini (MDG) method was implemented to determine the relative importance of effective factors on the spatial occurrence of each of the four hazards. Area under the curve (AUC) plots, based on a validation dataset, were created for the maps generated using the three algorithms to compare the results. The random forest model had the highest predictive accuracy, with AUC values of 0.994, 0.982, and 0.885 for gully erosion, flooding, and forest fires, respectively. Approximately 41%, 40%, 28%, and 3% of the study area are at risk of forest fires, earthquakes, floods, and gully erosion, respectively.

Multi hazards risk assessment of Indian Sundarbans using GIS based Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

The people of Sundarbans are well experienced with multiple hazards affected their life and livelihood since the incitation of 1st civilization over here. Low lying delta plain and massive population pressure increases the exposure limit of this area. For saving this valuable ecosystem and millions of people living here coastal planners and decision makers require a comprehensive risk assessment of this area. Present study applied a GIS based analytic hierarchy process (AHP) for assessing risk of Indian Sundarbans at a micro regional scale (1 km2). Total 4989 grids have been generated and all calculations were made at a grid level scale. Fourteen factors representing forcing (4), vulnerability (8) and exposure (2) of this area were used for the calculation. All factors were categorized into 5 point risk classes based on their relative contribution to the risk. Risk has been represented at grid level and consequently at mouza (lowest revenue unit) level scale for representing the area and populations under certain risk categories. The results showed that around 26% (11.3 lakh) and 23% (9.9 lakh) populations of Indian Sundarbans are under high to very high risk categories. Major parts of Basanti, Gosaba, Hingalganj, Canning-I, Canning-II, Jaynagar-I, Jaynagar-II, Sandeshkhali-I, Sandeshkhali-II are belongs to the high-very high risk classes. Higher effective sea level rise, lower tidal range, high population densities are associated with higher risk of these areas. The risk map provides essential information for identifying relative risk of an area which can be used for future management and planning.

A multi-hazard risk model with cascading failure pathways for the Dawlish (UK) railway using historical and contemporary data

The failure of the vital economic railway link between London and the southwest of the United Kingdom in the 2014 storm chain incurred up to £1.2bn of economic losses. This incident highlighted the urgent need to understand the cascading nature of multi hazards involved in storm damage. This study focuses on the Dawlish railway where a seawall breach caused two months of railway closure in 2014. We used historical and contemporary data of severe weather damage and used failure analysis to develop a multi-hazard risk model for the railway. Twenty-nine damage events caused significant line closure in the period 1846–2014. For each event, hazards were identified, the sequence of failures were deconstructed, and a flowchart for each event was formulated showing the interrelationship of multiple hazards and their potential to cascade. The most frequent damage mechanisms were identified: (I) landslide, (II) direct ballast washout, and (III) masonry damage. We developed a risk model for the railway which has five layers in the top-down order of: (a) root cause (storm); (b) force generation (debris impact, wave impact, overtopping, excess pore pressure, wind impacts); (c) common cause failure (slope instability, rail flooding, coping and parapet damage, foundation failure and masonry damage); (d) cascading failure (landslide, ballast washout, upper masonry seawall failure, loss of infill material), and (e) network failure forcing service suspension. We identified five separate failure pathways and damage mechanisms by analysing these 29 major events.

Random Multi Hazard Resilience Modeling of Engineered Systems and Critical Infrastructure

The random occurrence of natural and manmade hazards causes significant interruption to normal functionality of engineered systems and critical infrastructures (CIs). Given their ubiquitous nature and the necessity to maintain their performance, there is a global need to quantify these systems’ resilience under multi hazard, particularly when the hazards exhibit random and dynamic frequency and severity. Discussed in this study is the resilience quantification of engineered systems and CIs as a function of their performance during and after the multi hazard; to account for the uncertainty of the hazard and recovery resource availability, stochastic performance metrics such as availability and recovery time are investigated across time and adopted to quantify resilience as a piecewise function. The property of resilience is thoroughly investigated with respect to systems’ reliability metrics. Extensive simulation studies and a numerical example are provided to validate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed resilience models.

Multi-hazard risk mapping for coupling of natural and technological hazards

Technological hazards induced by natural hazards have a significant impact on human life and economy. Their power exceeds the impact of the natural hazards that caused them. However, most of the multi-hazard risk maps failed to incorporate technological hazards when mapping multi hazard risk. To address this problem, we established a hybrid multi-hazard risk assessment methodology that calculates the risk caused by natural and technological hazards in a three-step process. First, the possible natural and technological hazards in a given region are identified by hazard-forming environment analysis and hazard source investigation respectively. A scenario simulation is adopted to analyze the intensity and impact scope of these hazards. Second, the triggered relationships among natural and technological hazards are analyzed by a hazard matrix. Then, the radar graph is adopted to calculate the multi-hazard intensity under the coupling effect of all possible hazards in this region. Third, the multi-hazard risk is calculated by aggregating land use data and multi-hazard intensity together. This methodology was applied in Huairou Science City (HSC), Beijing. The result shows that the joint action of earthquake and liquid ammonia leakage is the main reason for the high risk in the central area of HSC. The methodology developed in this study can clearly show the different impacts of each hazard on a given region under the action of hazard coupling, and the calculated results can better reflect the actual disaster situation.

Community Preparedness for Disasters in Delhi: An Empirical Evaluation

Background: During a disaster, the community remains the primary and the sole line of response for quite long time period and therefore, incorporating local communities in disaster recovery and risk reduction is crucial, critical component. Aim: Evaluating the vulnerability of a selected society on four aspects: Information, Awareness, Training and Preparedness in a multi hazard prone state of Delhi, India, constitutes the central focal point of this study. Methodology: The data primarily was collected through two separate questionnaires administered to the sample of 726 respondents in the age group of 15 – 75 years. Community was sub-divided into two groups – First included professionals, housewives, retired persons (n= 280) and second included students of school (n=160) and college/university level (n= 286). The sampling technique employed was stratified random with methodology as empirical and analytical. Findings: The study affirms, firstly, that there is lack of awareness of the community about disaster plan, its components and agencies entrusted with disaster planning; secondly, there is a vague understanding about their role both during and post disaster; thirdly, significance of participation in training is also underestimated. Recommendations: A roadmap for increasing resilience of communities through effective training and outreach programs for capacity building up for the ‘whole’ community. 
 Keywords: Disaster risk reduction, community preparedness, resilience, participation, disaster management

Multi-Hazard Zonation For Effective Management of Disasters in Tamil Nadu

Natural hazards are a long existing threat to human and their surroundings which may occur throughout the world. Tamil Nadu is one of the Indian States with a number of natural hazard incidences. The occurrence of natural hazards, such as cyclone, storm surge, flood, drought, landslide, forest fire etc., has increased manifold in the recent decades.The multi-hazard zonation is one of the preliminary studies in disaster management scenario, which is used to understand the product of all prominent natural hazards. At the state level, it is imperative for the government to know the regions affected by multiple hazardsto help them prepare the management plans appropriately to protect the local communities and infrastructures. However, such systematic hazard assessment and integration in an administrative unit is largely missing in Tamil Nadu. Further, the utilisation of geoinformatics in the preparation of multi-hazard zonation helps to identify the most endangered areas of the State precisely and offers insights to detailed studies in highly risk zones. This paper attempts on these lines toprepare Multi Hazard Zones (MHZ) based on natural hazards viz. earthquake, landslide, cyclone, storm surge, flood, drought and forest fire of Tamil Nadu. The data for the study were generated from multiple sources, which were all generalised and integrated in a normalised scale. The occurrences, intensities and frequencies of hazards, namely seismic, landslide, and forest fire are the reasons for a very high multi-hazard in hilly tracts of the Nilgiris and parts of Shayadhri hills in Coimbatore and Theni Districts, whereas cyclone, storm surge, and flood caused a very high risk along the coastal stretch of Chennai, Kancheepuram, Cuddalore and Ramanathapuram Districts. The segregation of the results into administrative division’s which was then categorised in an order of high risk zones may providea powerful tool to the State authorities to allocate fund and resources. The output of this study also offers zonation for immediate knowledge, policy briefs, and proper disaster management plan at State level.
 Keywords : Disaster Management Natural Hazards; Geoinformatics; Tamil Nadu
 
 
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The Risk Assessment of Multi Hazard Area: A Case of Mitigation Consider in Spatial Planning of Bukittinggi City

The city of Bukittinggi in West Sumatra Province is geographically prone to multi hazard. The located along the active fault line of Sumatra namely Ngarai Sianok that shifted eleven centimeters per year, which is surrounded by two volcanoes, namely Mount Singgalang and Mount Marapi. Looking at the potential of multihazard disasters, this study aims to analyze the multi-disaster that is the input for development policy. The method used to assess factors with Davidson standardization model and superimpose. To obtain the level of importance of disaster risk factors used weighting by using analytical hierarchy process method by expert judgement. The study results show areas at high risk for earthquake, landslide, fire and flood disasters and disaster mitigation measures to reduce risks to hazard, vulnerability and resilience factors. Contribution in this reseach that spatial multi-hazard consideration should be undertaken as a consideration of development policies in order to reduce disaster risk.

The effect of biliary stent position on short-term and long-term outcomes of patients with low malignant obstructive jaundice after surgical treatment

Objective To explore the effect of the position of the biliary stents on the short-term and long-term effects of the patients with low malignant obstructive jaundice after treatment. Methods Seventy-eight patients with low-grade malignant obstructive jaundice diagnosed in Jiangyin Hospital Affiliated to Medical College of Southeast University who underwent biliary stenting were enrolled as the study object.According to the placement of the biliary stents, the stents were divided into the spanning group and the non-crossing group.The baseline data and related serological indexes were recorded, and the changes of jaundice between the two groups were compared by repeated measurements.All patients were followed up for 48 weeks.Multivariate Cox regression analysis was applied on the risk factors that might affect the prognosis of patients, and the degree of influence of various factors on the prognosis of patients was further evaluated. Results Repeated measures analysis showed that the biochemical indicators of the spanning group and the non-crossing group showed a significant downward trend and the difference was statistically significant (TBil: Fintra-group=9.392, Pintra-group =0.000; DBil: Fintra-group=7.581, Pintra-group=0.001). Among them, the total bilirubin (TBil) (Preoperative: (318.69±101.13) μmol/L, 1 week after surgery: (135.98±63.61) μmol/L, 2 weeks after surgery: (60.21±24.81) μmol/L) was lower than the non-crossing group preoperative: (309.07±109.97) μmol/L, 1 week after surgery: (158.87±66.92) μmol/L, 2 weeks after surgery: (75.91±20.46) μmol/L), and the difference was statistically significant (Finter-group=3.362, Pinter-group=0.041). The direct bilirubin (DBil) (Preoperative: (171.93±73.01) μmol/L, 1 week after surgery: (90.38±57.33) μmol/L, 2 weeks after surgery: (36.64±18.95) μmol/L) was lower than the non-crossing group (Preoperative: (174.53±82.74) μmol/L, 1 week after surgery: (107.85±49.07) μmol/L, 2 weeks after surgery: (37.87±14.55) μmol/L.The difference was statistically significant (Finter-group=6.284, Pinter-group=0.003). There was an interaction between the treatment regimen and treatment time (1 week after surgery and 2 weeks after surgery) (TBil: Finteraction=12.262, Pinteraction=0.000; DBil: Finteraction=10.254, Pinteraction=0.000). The results of the multi factor Cox proportional hazard model of the spanning group and the non-crossing group showed that the ALP, DBil, TBil and lymphatic metastasis of malignant tumor were the two independent risk factors that affect the prognosis.However, the pancreatic cancer, ALT and age in the spanning group across the ampulla also have a certain effect on the prognosis of the patients. Conclusion The effect of the placement of biliary stents across the Vater ampullary was more obvious in the short term on the decline of bilirubin.But in the long term, there was no significant difference in the prognosis of patients with biliary stenting position.ALP, TBil, DBil, and disease classification were all important risk factors affecting the prognosis of two groups of patients Key words: Malignant obstructive jaundice; Biliary stents; Ampullary abdomen; Risk factors