Delineation of Multi hazards vulnerable zone using the Geospatial approach: A micro-region level study in Indian Coastal Sundarban

Abstract

The Sundarban, a region with a rich history dating back to the emergence of the first civilization, has faced numerous hazards impacting the lives and livelihoods of its inhabitants. Preserving this invaluable ecosystem and ensuring the safety of millions of residents, planners require a thorough risk assessment for this area. This study utilizes a GIS-based weight overlay analysis (WOA) and a statistical fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) alongside a frequency ratio model, considering sixteen factors, to identify a vulnerable zone in the Indian Sundarbans. The resulting risk map, validated with an ROC curve showing over 80% accuracy, categorizes factors into five zones based on their contribution to risk. The analysis at the mouza level reveals that 36.84% of Sundarbans' blocks and 20.28% of resident mouzas are classified as very high risk. Approximately 17.08% of the population in these areas, totalling 350,618 individuals, requires special attention from various levels of government. Notably, Sagar, Namkhana, Patharpratima, Kultali, Basanti, Gosaba, Hingalgang, and Kakdwip exhibit varying degrees of risk, influenced by factors such as effective sea level rise, tidal range, and population density. This study provides crucial insights for decision-makers, government planners, and disaster management, aiding in the identification of high-risk populations and areas that demand immediate preservation efforts. The significance of this research lies in its potential to guide actions that safeguard both the Sundarbans ecosystem and its inhabitants, emphasizing the need for targeted interventions to address the specific challenges faced by this unique region.