Multi-Hazard Early Warning System Research Articles

HydroPredicT_Extreme: A probabilistic method for the prediction of extremal high-flow hydrological events

Disastrous losses related to high-flow events have increased dramatically over the past decades largely due to an increase in flood-prone regions settlements and shift in hydrological trends largely due to Climate Change. To mitigate the societal impact of hydrological and hydraulic extremes, knowledge of the processes leading to these extreme events is vital. Hydrological modelling is one of the main tools in this quest for knowledge but comes with uncertainties. For that it is necessary to deeply study the impact of hydrological models’ structure on the magnitude and timing of extreme rainfall-runoff events. This paper is mainly aimed to show the development of a method called “HydroPredicT_Extreme” based on Bayesian Causal Modelling (BCM), a technique within Artificial Intelligence (AI). This method may enhance predictive capacity of extreme rainfall-runoff events. “HydroPredicT_Extreme” follows an iterative methodology that comprise 2 main stages. First one comprises a mixed graphical/analytical method from Hydrograph. This stage is conditioned by two initial constraints which are, a) pluviometry station is representative of hydrograph downstream flow behaviour; b) there must be independence of events. This first stage comprises sub-phases such as: 1.1. Calculation of Response Time (RT) through a mixed graphical/analytical approach, 1.2 Subtraction of RT from the flow series to remove the Rainfall-Flow delay; 1.3 Calculation base flow rate; 1.4 Subtraction base-flow from flow series to work on absolute inputs. Second man stage is called Bayesian Causal Modelling Translation (BCMT) that comprises the 2.1 Learning, 2.2 Training, 2.3 Simulation through BCM modelling, 2.4 Sensitivity Analysis-Validation. This whole methodology will become a digital application and software that could be extrapolated to several similar case studies. This may be coupled with posterior devices for the prevention of catastrophic flood consequences in the form of MultiHazard-Early Warning System (MH-EWS) or others.

A Baseline Assessment of the Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems in the Province of Batangas, Philippines

Batangas is a first-class province of the Philippines located on the southwestern part of Luzon in the CALABARZON region. Its capital is Batangas City and the provinces of Cavite and Laguna border it to the north and Quezon to the east. Across the Verde Island Passages to the south is the island of Mindoro and to the west lies the South China Sea. Geographically, Batangas is a combination of plains and mountains, including the world’s smallest volcano, Mt. Taal, with an elevation of 600 meters, located in the middle of the Taal Lake. Other important peaks in Batangas include Mt. Makulot with an elevation of 830 m, Mt. Talamitan with 700 m, Mt. Pico de Loro with 664 m, Mt. Batulao with 811 m, Mt. Manabo with 830 m, and Mt. Daguldol with 672 m. The province has many beaches and is famous for its excellent diving spots. It has the second largest international seaport in the Philippines after Metro Manila. The city's identification as an industrial growth center in the region and the focal point of the CALABARZON program resulted in the increasing number of business establishments in the city’s Central Business District (CBD) and numerous industries operating at the province’s industrial parks. Given the geographical nature of the province and its current development, the present study was envisioned to assess its preparation for any forms of an imminent natural disaster. In particular, the study assessed the usage of multi-hazard early warning systems in the province using survey interviews with various stakeholders. The results of the 30 survey interviews showed that there is a limited multi-hazard early warning system in the province although the majority of the participants have experienced natural disasters in their respective areas.

Evaluating the network of stakeholders in Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems for multiple hazards amidst biological outbreaks: Sri Lanka as a case in point

Synergized impacts of simultaneous hazards amidst COVID-19 have called for the need for highly collaborative multi-sectoral approaches for disaster preparedness planning. In such a context, this study aims at evaluating the network of stakeholders in the National Early Warning System of Sri Lanka during preparedness planning. Social Network Analysis was used to visualise the network of stakeholders for selected hazard scenarios. Furthermore, a series of key informant interviews were conducted focusing on disaster preparedness planning during the recent multiple hazard scenarios. The findings highlight the need for a framework to guide the stakeholder coordination in preparedness planning for multiple hazards.

People-Centred Early Warning System: ‘Last Mile Connectivity’ During Cyclone Titli In Srikakulam, Andhra Pradesh

The paper examines ‘last mile connectivity’ from a multi-hazard Early Warning System (EWS) perspective to situate it within a broader societal context, highlighting the role of continual communication with warned vulnerable populations as a critical requirement. Taking the case study of a very severe tropical cyclonic storm Titli that struck the coastal district of Srikakulam in Andhra Pradesh, India, in October 2018, the paper identifies specific gaps within the conception of ‘last mile connectivity’ and calls for a shifting focus from ‘early warning delivery’ to greater integration with local needs and capabilities. It shows that the effectiveness of EWS depends on several factors, including uncertainties under which people negotiate to receive the warning, inter-departmental coordination, power and communication facilities, and accountability of local authorities.

Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS) Assessment Methodology for Schools

Schools play an important role in any community because children spend most of their time in schools for their education. Unfortunately, schools are exposed to natural hazards such as earthquakes, typhoons, and floods like other structures. However, implementing an effective Early Warning System (EWS) can help school administrators, occupants, and communities prepare against these hazards. EWS is an essential component of a disaster risk reduction management (DRRM) plan. Its purpose is to generate and disseminate timely and meaningful information of possible extreme events to administrators and eventually to the students. However, it is difficult to ascertain the quality of a school’s EWS to address any upcoming hazards. With this, the authors designed a workshop with toolkits to guide school administrators in evaluating their organizational structure within the context of DRR. The toolkits assessed the soft and hard measures of the school, particularly its DRRM and EWS. A method was developed to measure the EWS in schools based on the toolkits. A radar scoring system was used to measure the school’s key elements: Risk Knowledge, Monitoring and Warning Services, Dissemination and Communication, Response Capabilities. Indices for each element and EWS as a whole were obtained. Modes of warning and communication were ranked. In Lipa City’s case, the results showed that the schools have an average of 74.050 EWS index, meaning the EWS is of good quality but can still be improved. This method can be applied to other schools to assess their EWS.

Communication Structures and Decision Making Cues and Criteria to Support Effective Drought Warning in Central Malawi

Early warning systems trigger early action and enable better disaster preparedness. People-centered dissemination and communication are pivotal for the effective uptake of early warnings. Current research predominantly focuses on sudden-onset hazards, such as floods, ignoring considerable differences with slow-onset hazards, such as droughts. We identify the essential factors contributing to effective drought dissemination and communication using the people-centered approach advocated in the WMOs Multi-Hazard Early Warning System Framework (MHEWS). We use semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders and focus group discussions with small-scale farmers in the Mangochi and Salima Districts of Malawi. We show that the timely release of seasonal forecast, the tailoring of the drought warning content (and its timing) to agricultural decision making, and the provision of several dissemination channels enhance trust and improve uptake of drought warning information by farmers. Our analysis demonstrates that farmers seek, prepare, and respond to drought warning information when it is provided as advice on agricultural practices, rather than as weather-related information. The information was found to be useful where it offers advice on the criteria and environmental cues that farmers can use to inform their decisions in a timely manner. Based on our findings, we propose that by focusing on enhancing trust, improving information uptake and financial sustainability as key metrics, the MHEWS can be adapted for use in monitoring the effectiveness of early warning systems.

An evaluation of availability and adequacy of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems in Asian countries: A baseline study

Early warning systems are widely considered as one of the more important aspects to reduce the impacts and consequences that hazardous natural events pose to societies. Similar to the other terms related to disaster risk reduction, this concept has evolved over time to eventually result in a comprehensive framework, that includes features from the upstream phase, such as detection and forecasting tools and models, to the downstream phase that considers a people-centred approach.Based on this holistic conceptual framework, this paper attempts to assess the degree of adequacy and integration of early warning systems with reference to international standards using a multi-hazard perspective. The study is focused on the following Asian countries: the Maldives, Sri Lanka, Myanmar and the Philippines.Results obtained provide an inventory of existing approaches and systems, showing common backgrounds and consistencies in their conceptualisation. In addition, the findings of this study highlight the strengths and weaknesses of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems in each country considering their technical, legal, and socio-economic complexities. These findings are intended to support target countries to improve the availability and effectiveness of their warning systems.

Potential of Pan-European Seasonal Hydrometeorological Drought Forecasts Obtained from a Multihazard Early Warning System

AbstractDrought early warning systems (DEWS) have been developed in several countries in response to high socioeconomic losses caused by droughts. In Europe, the European Drought Observatory (EDO) monitors the ongoing drought and forecasts soil moisture anomalies up to 7 days ahead and meteorological drought up to 3 months ahead. However, end users managing water resources often require hydrological drought warning several months in advance. To answer this challenge, a seasonal pan-European DEWS has been developed and has been running in a preoperational mode since mid-2018 under the EU-funded Enhancing Emergency Management and Response to Extreme Weather and Climate Events (ANYWHERE) project. The ANYWHERE DEWS (AD-EWS) is different than other operational DEWS in the sense that the AD-EWS provides a wide range of seasonal hydrometeorological drought forecasting products in addition to meteorological drought, that is, a broad suite of drought indices that covers all water cycle components (drought in precipitation, soil moisture, runoff, discharge, and groundwater). The ability of the AD-EWS to provide seasonal drought predictions in high spatial resolution (5 km × 5 km) and its diverse products mark the AD-EWS as a preoperational drought forecasting system that can serve a broad range of different users’ needs in Europe. This paper introduces the AD-EWS and shows some examples of different drought forecasting products, the drought forecast score, and some examples of a user-driven assessment of forecast trust levels.

Progress in the early warning system in Aceh province, Indonesia since the 2004 earthquake-tsunami

ABSTRACT Aceh province is vulnerable to multiple hazards. Despite improvements in disaster preparedness efforts including the early warning system (EWS) following the catastrophic 2004 earthquake-tsunami, ineffective disaster responses still occur here. An EWS is essential to provide early disaster information to people in order to respond appropriately. An integrated EWS consists of risk knowledge; monitoring; dissemination and communication; and response capability elements. This study investigates how Aceh’s disaster management and preparedness have evolved since 2004 focusing on its EWS and in particular how the contemporary integrated EWS approach has been incorporated into its development and operation. In-depth interviews, along with review of relevant policy and procedures were conducted to understand current practices and existing governance and structure of EWS design and operation. Findings suggest that a multi-hazard EWS is not well developed and a linear EWS model is prominent. Dissemination and response elements dominate the EWS design and operation with a lack of ongoing risk assessment that incorporates vulnerability concepts and some important governance issues that impact on response and capability. Key recommendations are made for review of policy and practice for Aceh governments at provincial and district levels and other relevant stakeholders to improve the current EWS.

Mapping combined wildfire and heat stress hazards to improve evidence-based decision making

Heat stress and forest fires are often considered highly correlated hazards as extreme temperatures play a key role in both occurrences. This commonality can influence how civil protection and local responders deploy resources on the ground and could lead to an underestimation of potential impacts, as people could be less resilient when exposed to multiple hazards. In this work, we provide a simple methodology to identify areas prone to concurrent hazards, exemplified with, but not limited to, heat stress and fire danger. We use the combined heat and forest fire event that affected Europe in June 2017 to demonstrate that the methodology can be used for analysing past events as well as making predictions, by using reanalysis and medium-range weather forecasts, respectively. We present new spatial layers that map the combined danger and make suggestions on how these could be used in the context of a Multi-Hazard Early Warning System. These products could be particularly valuable in disaster risk reduction and emergency response management, particularly for civil protection, humanitarian agencies and other first responders whose role is to identify priorities during pre-interventions and emergencies.

WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Projects (WMO-TLFDP) —Concept and Progress

ABSTRACT The World Expo 2010 was successfully held in Shanghai from May to October 2010. Activities related to the Expo were spread out in the Eastern China. To provide a better typhoon landfall forecast service for the Expo and to demonstrate the most advanced typhoon forecast techniques in the world, the “WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (WMO-TLFDP)” began in May 2010 and will end in December 2012. It is a component of the Shanghai Multi-Hazard Early Warning System Project. Significant progresses have been made. First, the WMO-TLFDP Training Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Forecasting was held successfully in Shanghai, China during 24-28 May, 2010. Second. a total of 13 typhoon forecast product providers have participated in the project by providing real-time forecast products. Third, typhoon track, intensity and rainfall forecasts are verified in both real time and post season manners. Fourth, products of the project are disseminated through the project’s website ( http://tlfdp.typhoon.gov.cn ) and the operational website of the Shanghai Typhoon Warning Center. Finally, all the data and products of named tropical cyclones since May 2010 are archived by the Regional Meteorological Center of Eastern China, which are available to research, training and capacity-building activities. It is demonstrated that current operational models are valuable in providing guidance to the forecast of not only track, but also intensity and heavy rainfall of tropical cyclones. Consensus techniques and ensemble prediction systems are promising in assisting the forecasters and decision makers to provide better tropical cyclone forecast and warning service. The WMO-TLFDP has supported effectively the forecasters and typhoon-related weather services during the World EXPO 2010, and it will continue to promote the implementation of the most advanced typhoon forecast techniques among the members of ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee, which ultimately will be of benefit to other WMO Members as well.

Evaluation of Community Resilience Aspects of Sri Lankan Coastal Districts

This research is carried out to evaluate important community resilience aspects of coastal districts in Sri Lanka and to provide suitable recommendations to strengthen them. After carrying out an indepth literature survey and interviewing key personnel who are involved in the field of Disaster Management and Disaster Risk Reduction, existing status of the coastal hazards, multi-hazard assessments, early warning mechanisms, national policies, guidelines and efforts and regional cooperation were identified. During the literature survey, it was observed that Sri Lanka has developed a Hazard profile for the country and has an Early Warning Dissemination System which seems to function quite well by the book. What is more, the country is in the process of orienting the existing national policies and guidelines with the post 2015 global standards such as the Sendai framework and Sustainable Development Goals. Sri Lanka being a member of Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System (IOTWMS) and Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia (RIMES) depicts that the country has a good regional cooperation in terms of Early Warning. Even though Sri Lanka lacks efficient and sustainable resilience mechanisms focused on the coastal communities, national efforts are underway to build up the coastal resilience. Training and public awareness campaigns, efficient funds, properly maintained hierarchy and concern to the coastal ecosystems are some of the enablers identified in this study which are associated in building coastal resilience. Developing and updating a multi-hazard map, improving the interagency cooperation and driving towards a people-centred Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS) are some of the recommendations given after the analysis

The role of universities in Indonesia multi-hazard early warning system

Indonesia is a disaster-prone region facing multiple hazards. The impact has cost human casualties, injuries, damages to assets, environment and regional development. In order to protect the people and assets, the government has increased the capacity to face and anticipate disaster which is through a multi-hazard early warning system (MHEWS). The academic sector in Indonesia, especially prominent universities such as Institut Teknologi Bandung and Universitas Gajah Mada has contributed positively to the development of MHEWS and the Land Slide Early Warning System. This research aims to examine the role of universities in Indonesia related to the establishment of an MHEWS in Indonesia by answering what are the roles and the challenges. The research methodology is through a desk study and document review of government and organizations reports using qualitative and descriptive analysis. The findings of the research indicate the role of universities in the MHEWS is in line with the concept of tri dharma of universities which research, higher education and outreach. This means the role of universities to conduct research related to early warning systems, higher education through having program studies related to disaster management and outreach the role to train the community, organizations, and government through professional networks. Unfortunately, the involvement of the eastern part of Indonesian universities still needs to increase capacity, awareness, and access in utilizing the MHEWS at the local level.

Hotels contingency assessment in Padang city against coastal hazard

Padang city has a variety of regions including coastal. The city of Padang is very vulnerable to coastal disaster (Coastal Hazard). In response to these statements, it is necessary to optimize the Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS) for contingencies against coastal hazard referring to the four major components of MHEWS according to UNISDR. Hotels are kind of many public buildings that may be used as shelters. The purpose of this study is to assess the hotel contingencies in Padang city against coastal hazard. To achieve the goal, some near the beach hotels have been selected as the object of research. The selected hotels are five of four-star hotels, one of one-star hotel, and three for two-star hotels. The research results are processed by qualitative and quantitative analytic methods. The assessment then concludes that contingency afford is effected by the level hotel star. The important things that need to be planned for the hotel contingency against the coastal hazard are the evacuation route map and the signs of evacuation direction in the easy place to find.

A capacity analysis framework for multi-hazard early warning in coastal communities

Coastal regions are an important focus of development, are densely populated and are typically exposed to a range of hazards. A critical aspect of disaster risk reduction (DRR) is the efficient functioning of multi-hazard early warning systems (MHEWS) that are owned by States but require a high degree of international and multilateral cooperation. They are designed according to well-defined operational standards which must be uniformly implemented across the broad range of activities and projects.However, progress in early warning (EW) is uneven across Asia, in terms of high-risk and hazard type resulting low-capacity countries falling behind. The Intergovernmental Coordination Group (ICG) of Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System (IOTWMS) has a mandate to enhance awareness and implementation by Member States of the procedures for risk assessment and effective functioning of the “last mile” of the MHEWS within communities. This mandate corresponds to priority aims identified in the Sendai Framework of 2015 on DRR. The ICG has identified the considerable demand amongst Indian Ocean Member States for capacity building that will enhance this foundation of procedural knowledge and promote its take-up on a sustained and sustainable basis, as a step towards the implementation of these DRR aims.This paper describes the results of the first stage of a longer-term study into the capacity of MHEW across Asia. The study is being carried out by fifteen Higher Education Institutes (HEIs) across Europe and Asia, along with several socio-economic actors in the region. The initial study will focus on five countries that include communities highly exposed and vulnerable to the threat posed by multiple coastal hazards: Indonesia; Maldives; Myanmar; Philippines; and Sri Lanka. The first phase of the study involved the development of a regional capacity analysis framework for MHEW. The framework covers a range of dimensions, such as legislative, planning, infrastructure, technical and scientific, and institutional partnerships. The framework was developed through the processes of consultation and needs assessments by the project partners and relevant socio-economic actors. The resultant framework will be used as the basis for detailed capacity analysis studies in the five target countries, as well as a wider regional perspective. The analysis findings will underpin later capacity building activities across the region.

Review of National Multi-Hazard Early Warning System Plan of Pakistan in context with Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction

Abstract Pakistan has undergone multiple geological and climate-related disasters in recent years. This includes the devastating 2005 Kashmir earthquake, and yearly countrywide flooding since 2010 till present. The recurrence of such disasters has led to the establishment of national and provincial disaster management institutions, which worked towards the formulation of national disaster management plan. As a result, Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Plan (NDMP) was approved in 2012. This paper provides a review of Pakistan’s National Multi-Hazard Early Warning System Plan (NMH-EWS-P) that is part of the overall NDMP, approved prior to the introduction of the 2015-2030 Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR). The research identifies various aspects of the national plan, which require amendments in the light of the Sendai Framework. The implementation of the NMH-EWS-P is reviewed by the case study of the province of Punjab, where the Punjab Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) is responsible for the implementation of the national plan at provincial level. With the analysis of Early Warning Systems against natural disasters, as implemented by the PDMA, the gaps and shortcomings of the prevailing practice are identified. Furthermore, this research also aims to propose practical solutions and recommendations for improvement, and better alignment of the prevailing Early Warning System with that of the Sendai Framework.

Reviewing global development of multi-hazard early warning system with the perspective of its development in Indonesia

Never before a catastrophe brought an influence of the world’s attention like the Indian Ocean Tsunami in 2004 (IOT04). Before IOT04, states of the development of Early Warning System technology (EWS) was not as advanced and progressive as it is today. Together with the unavoidable impacts of climate change, disasters - both geologically and hydro-meteorological - are increasingly becoming the mainstream of global concern. Likewise, it’s EWS technology. This paper reviews the global development of EWS technologies, both related with geologically and hydro-meteorologically: before IOT04, current, and future development vision. The discussion of UN Agencies in the series of endeavor undertaken to embody Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2030 leads to a vision of the future development of EWS technology. Three factors become the primary drivers of EWS progress, among others, the growing awareness of the community that alter the form of a requirement of early warning information, the state of development of information technology, and observational instrumentation. The perspective of its application in Indonesia is also discussed.

Scenario-based tsunami risk assessment using a static flooding approach and high-resolution digital elevation data: An example from Muscat in Oman

Knowledge of tsunami risk and vulnerability is essential to establish a well-adapted Multi Hazard Early Warning System, land-use planning and emergency management. As the tsunami risk for the coastline of Oman is still under discussion and remains enigmatic, various scenarios based on historical tsunamis were created. The suggested inundation and run-up heights were projected onto the modern infrastructural setting of the Muscat Capital Area. Furthermore, possible impacts of the worst-case tsunami event for Muscat are discussed.The approved Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment Model was used to model the structural vulnerability of the infrastructure for a 2m tsunami scenario, depicting the 1945 tsunami and a 5m tsunami in Muscat. Considering structural vulnerability, the results suggest a minor tsunami risk for the 2m tsunami scenario as the flooding is mainly confined to beaches and wadis. Especially traditional brick buildings, still predominant in numerous rural suburbs, and a prevalently coast-parallel road network lead to an increased tsunami risk. In contrast, the 5m tsunami scenario reveals extensively inundated areas and with up to 48% of the buildings flooded, and therefore consequently a significantly higher tsunami risk. We expect up to 60000 damaged buildings and up to 380000 residents directly affected in the Muscat Capital Area, accompanied with a significant loss of life and damage to vital infrastructure.The rapid urbanization processes in the Muscat Capital Area, predominantly in areas along the coast, in combination with infrastructural, demographic and economic growth will additionally increase the tsunami risk and therefore emphasizes the importance of tsunami risk assessment in Oman.

Towards an Integrated Information Logistics for Multi Hazard Early Warning Systems

The delivery of user-tailored warning messages for heterogeneous user groups is a challenge rarely covered by hazard monitoring and Early Warning Systems (EWS) even though it is one of the four key elements of early warning systems identified by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR). This article describes the concepts of generic information logistics developed for the distant early warning system (DEWS). It is not limited to specific hazard types, languages or other deployment specifics. Instead, it enables the generation of user-tailored warning messages that account for specific needs, individual requirements, different levels of understanding, distinct perceptions and varying personal abilities and it provides several filter mechanisms to avoid unintentional message flooding in emergency situations. This novel approach is completed by a reusable graphical user interface component, which provides functionality to generate warning messages in compliance with the Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) standard to leverage inter-operability among early warning systems.

Simulations of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nargis over the Bay of Bengal Using RIMES Operational System

The Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (RIMES), an international, intergovernmental organization based in Thailand is engaged in disaster risk reduction over the Asia–Pacific region through early warning information. In this paper, RIMES’ customized Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model has been used to evaluate the simulations of cyclone Nargis which hit Myanmar on 2 May 2008, the most deadly severe weather event in the history of Myanmar. The model covers a domain of 35oE to 145oE in the east—west direction and 12oS to 40oN in the north—south direction in order to cover Asia and east Africa with a resolution of 9 km in the horizontal and 28 vertical levels. The initial and boundary conditions for the simulations were provided by the National Center for Environmental Prediction-Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS) available at 1o lon/lat resolution. An attempt is being made to critically evaluate the simulation of cyclone Nargis by seven set of simulations in terms of track, intensity and landfall time of the cyclone. The seven sets of model simulations were initialized every 12 h starting from 0000 UTC 28 April to 01 May 2008. Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) precipitation (mm) is used to evaluate the performance of the simulations of heavy rainfall associated with the tropical cyclone. The track and intensity of the simulated cyclone are compared by making use of Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) data sets. The results indicate that the landfall time, the distribution and intensity of the rainfall, pressure and wind field are well simulated as compared with the JTWC estimates. The average landfall track error for all seven simulations was 64 km with an average time error of about 5 h. The average intensity error of central pressure in all the simulations were found out to be approximately 6 hPa more than the JTWC estimates and in the case of wind, the simulations under predicted it by an average of 12 m s−1.