Potential of Pan-European Seasonal Hydrometeorological Drought Forecasts Obtained from a Multihazard Early Warning System

Samuel Jonson Sutanto,Xavier Llort,Fredrik Wetterhall,Henny A J Van Lanen

doi:10.1175/bams-d-18-0196.1

Abstract

AbstractDrought early warning systems (DEWS) have been developed in several countries in response to high socioeconomic losses caused by droughts. In Europe, the European Drought Observatory (EDO) monitors the ongoing drought and forecasts soil moisture anomalies up to 7 days ahead and meteorological drought up to 3 months ahead. However, end users managing water resources often require hydrological drought warning several months in advance. To answer this challenge, a seasonal pan-European DEWS has been developed and has been running in a preoperational mode since mid-2018 under the EU-funded Enhancing Emergency Management and Response to Extreme Weather and Climate Events (ANYWHERE) project. The ANYWHERE DEWS (AD-EWS) is different than other operational DEWS in the sense that the AD-EWS provides a wide range of seasonal hydrometeorological drought forecasting products in addition to meteorological drought, that is, a broad suite of drought indices that covers all water cycle components (drought in precipitation, soil moisture, runoff, discharge, and groundwater). The ability of the AD-EWS to provide seasonal drought predictions in high spatial resolution (5 km × 5 km) and its diverse products mark the AD-EWS as a preoperational drought forecasting system that can serve a broad range of different users’ needs in Europe. This paper introduces the AD-EWS and shows some examples of different drought forecasting products, the drought forecast score, and some examples of a user-driven assessment of forecast trust levels.

Highlights

Drought early warning systems (DEWS) have been developed in several countries in response to high socioeconomic losses caused by droughts
This framework has the overall objective of reducing disaster risks and losses, and highlights the needs of multihazard early warning systems (MH-EWS) as one of the important Sendai’s global targets
A probabilistic seasonal pan-European hydrometeorological drought forecasting system (AD-EWS) has been developed with the aim to reduce drought impacts in Europe and to answer the challenge of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–30. This system has been in preoperational mode since mid-2018 as part of the ANYWHERE multihazard platform

Summary

Introduction

Drought early warning systems (DEWS) have been developed in several countries in response to high socioeconomic losses caused by droughts. A new drought EWS, which can provide the forecasted drought at longer time scales from months to seasons and including more hydrometeorological variables than soil moisture is potentially a useful tool to reduce the impact of drought events in Europe.

Results

Conclusion