The economic movement of countries is not uniform and stable over time and always fluctuates around the long-term growth trend and creates a business cycle meanwhile, the capital market as a backward variable is affected by economic fluctuations therefore, in this research, the issue is looked at from the perspective that¸ can the business cycle of recession be considered as a leading variable in the occurrence and formation of risk and uncertainty in the stock market of countries? To answer this question, first a meta-analysis method and based on the research background, a model of stock market uncertainty was specified In which the growth rate variance of S&P index, which was calculated by GARCH technique, was used as a variable of risk and uncertainty in the stock market of countries, and the HP method was used to calculate business cycles. Balanced data panel technique was used to estimate the model. Which include the fundamental variables of monetary policy (supply of bank credit), fiscal policy (average tax rate), nominal interest rate, capital market size, technical progress variable and stagnant business cycle. The statistical sample of the study includes 14 less developed countries. Less developed countries are defined in terms of their per capita income and in terms of the division of countries in the UN statistical report. The statistics of time series are annual and are related to the time period of 2001-2018. The research findings that were calculated jointly confirmed the effect of the variables in the model ¸it also showed that stagnant cycles as expected have a positive effect on the reduction of risk in the stock market. Classification: JEL E32, G100.
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