Predation Mortality Research Articles

An eco-epidemiological model with fear effect and hunting cooperation

In this paper, we propose an eco-epidemiological model with disease in the prey population, the model incorporates fear effect of predators on prey and hunting cooperation among predators. We assume that fear can reduce the reproduction rate of the prey population and lower the activity of the prey population, which consequently lowers the disease transmission rate. Mathematical analysis of the model with regard to the non-negativity, boundedness of solutions, stability of equilibria, permanence of the model system are analyzed. The model undergoes backward bifurcation and bistability. We conduct extensive numerical simulations to explore the roles of fear effect, hunting cooperation and other biologically related parameters (e.g. disease transmission rate of prey, death rate of predators), it is found that low levels of fear and hunting cooperation can stabilize the eco-epidemiological system, however, relatively high levels of fear and hunting cooperation can induce limit cycles. Numerical simulations show the occurrence of multiple limit cycles. It is also observed that the system shows limit cycle oscillations for small disease transmission rate/death rate of predators, and the system becomes stable when the disease transmission rate/death rate of predators is high.

The effects of exposure to pyriproxyfen and predation on Zika virus infection and transmission in Aedes aegypti.

Zika virus (ZIKV) is an emerging mosquito-borne pathogen that can cause global public health threats. In the absence of effective antiviral medications, prevention measures rely largely on reducing the number of adult mosquito vectors by targeting juvenile stages. Despite the importance of juvenile mosquito control measures in reducing adult population size, a full understanding of the effects of these measures in determining mosquito phenotypic traits and in mosquito-arbovirus interactions is poorly understood. Pyriproxyfen is a juvenile hormone analog that primarily blocks adult emergence, but does not cause mortality in larvae. This mechanism has the potential to work in combination with other juvenile sources of mortality in nature such as predation to affect mosquito populations. Here, we experimentally evaluated the effects of juvenile exposure to pyriproxyfen and predatory mosquito Toxorhynchites rutilus on Aedes aegypti phenotypes including susceptibility to ZIKV infection and transmission. We discovered that combined effects of pyriproxyfen and Tx. rutilus led to higher inhibition of adult emergence in Ae. aegypti than observed in pyriproxyfen or Tx. rutilus treatments alone. Adult body size was larger in treatments containing Tx. rutilus and in treatments mimicking the daily mortality of predation compared to control or pyriproxyfen treatments. Susceptibility to infection with ZIKV in Ae. aegypti was reduced in predator treatment relative to those exposed to pyriproxyfen. Disseminated infection, transmission, and titers of ZIKV in Ae. aegypti were similar in all treatments relative to controls. Our data suggest that the combination of pyriproxyfen and Tx. rutilus can inhibit adult Ae. aegypti emergence but may confer a fitness advantage in survivors and does not inhibit their vector competence for ZIKV relative to controls. Understanding the ultimate consequences of juvenile mosquito control measures on subsequent adults’ ability to transmit pathogens is critical to fully understand their overall impacts.

A prey–predator system with disease in prey and cooperative hunting strategy in predator

A predator–prey model is proposed in this work where the prey population is infected by a disease. Here, healthy prey species show defence mechanism while they are attacked by the predator. Moreover as the infected prey are already physically weak, so, predator apply cooperative hunting strategy while consume infected prey to get more food. It helps the predator population to grow with a higher rate. But calculation gives that if they start to hunt the infected prey with a larger cooperative hunting rate, then ultimately predator population decrease with time. Boundedness and positivity of the system variables show that the proposed model system is well-posed. Routh–Hurwitz criterion provides the local stability conditions of the equilibrium points. Also, the system becomes permanent under certain parametric restrictions. The numerical results, verified using MATLAB, support the analytical findings. Numerical simulations give that the parameter denoting cooperative hunting rate can change the system dynamics and we can get oscillating behaviour by regulating this parameter. Moreover transcritical and saddle-node bifurcations occur by regulating the death rate of predator around the critical points. Occurrence of Bogdanov–Takens, generalized Hopf and Cusp bifurcations have also been observed here.

Effect of forest stand type on host plant quality and direct and indirect effects on pine sawfly performance

Abstract Observed lower levels of herbivory in mixed compared with monoculture stands have been hypothesized to depend on top‐down forces, through higher predation pressure by natural enemies or through bottom‐up mechanisms through plant quality effects on herbivore performance. In this study, we compared the performance measured as host plant induced mortality, cocoon weight, and predation mortality of the European pine sawfly Neodiprion sertifer (Geoffroy) (Hymenoptera, Diprionidae) in mixed and monoculture forest stands. We did not observe a difference in host plant induced mortality, cocoon weight, or predation mortality between mixed and monoculture forest stands. We did find an effect of local conditions around each experimental tree on pine sawfly performance. For example, the nitrogen content of pine needles is negatively affected by the proportion of pine around the experimental tree, which in turn increases the survival of sawfly larvae. The results suggest that local conditions around individual trees are more important for the performance of the European pine sawfly than stand type, i.e. mixed or monoculture plant stands. We conclude that the ongoing trend for diversification within commercial forestry calls for more research where the effects of both bottom‐up and top‐down effects are studied at several spatial scales.

Within‐population variation in dietary traits: implications for vulnerability and impact of imperiled keystone predators

AbstractWithin a population of apex predators, differences among individuals can influence both their ecological impact and their vulnerability to threatening processes. Our field studies on a large monitor lizard (Varanus panoptes) in the Australian wet–dry tropics show that diets shift seasonally and depend upon a lizard’s sex and body size. Individuals that had previously been recorded to consume frogs were most at risk following biological invasion by toxic cane toads (Rhinella marina), as were individuals with broad diets during the wet season. As a result, mortality of those individual predators likely reduced predation pressure on other taxa (invertebrates and reptiles) that were frequently consumed by the same lizards that ate frogs, but with less benefit for taxa (e.g., rodents) that were consumed by non‐anuran‐eating individuals within the predator population. In particular, individuals killed by cane toads often had consumed agamid lizards, a group whose abundance has been reported to increase due to toad‐induced mortality of V. panoptes. To understand the vulnerability of apex predators, or the ecological consequences of their extirpation, we need to incorporate the role of variation among individuals in critical ecological traits.

Dynamics of a Predator–Prey Model with Distributed Delay to Represent the Conversion Process or Maturation

Distributed delay is included in a simple predator–prey model in the prey-to-predator biomass conversion term. The delayed term includes a delay-dependent “discount” factor that ensures the predators that do not survive the delay interval, do not contribute to growth of the predator population. A simple model was chosen so that without delay all solutions converge to a globally asymptotically stable equilibrium in order to show the possible effects of delay on the dynamics. If the co-existence equilibrium does not exist, the dynamics of the system is identical to its non-delayed analog. However, with delay, there is a delay-dependent threshold for the existence of the co-existence equilibrium. When the co-existence equilibrium exists, unlike the dynamics of the model without delay, a much wider range of dynamics is possible, including a strange attractor and bi-stability, although the system is uniformly persistent. A bifurcation theory approach is taken, using both the mean delay and the predator death rate as bifurcation parameters. We consider the gamma and the uniform distributions as delay kernels and show that the “discounting” term ensures that the Hopf bifurcations occur in pairs, as was observed in the analogous system with discrete delay (i.e., using the Dirac delta distribution). We show that there are certain features common to all distributions, although the model with different kernels can have a significantly different range of dynamics. In particular, the number of bi-stabilities, the sequence of bifurcations, the criticality of the Hopf bifurcations, and the size of the stability regions can differ. Also, the width of the interval over which the delay history is nonzero seems to have a significant effect on the range of dynamics. Thus, ignoring the delay and/or not choosing the right delay kernel might result in inaccurate modelling predictions.

Temperature alters the shape of predator-prey cycles through effects on underlying mechanisms.

BackgroundPredicting the effects of climate warming on the dynamics of ecological systems requires understanding how temperature influences birth rates, death rates and the strength of species interactions. The temperature dependance of these processes—which are the underlying mechanisms of ecological dynamics—is often thought to be exponential or unimodal, generally supported by short-term experiments. However, ecological dynamics unfold over many generations. Our goal was to empirically document shifts in predator–prey cycles over the full range of temperatures that can possibly support a predator–prey system and then to uncover the effect of temperature on the underlying mechanisms driving those changes.MethodsWe measured the population dynamics of the Didinium-Paramecium predator–prey system across a wide range of temperatures to reveal systematic changes in the dynamics of the system. We then used ordinary differential equation fitting to estimate parameters of a model describing the dynamics, and used these estimates to assess the long-term temperature dependance of all the underlying mechanisms.ResultsWe found that predator–prey cycles shrank in state space from colder to hotter temperatures and that both cycle period and amplitude varied with temperature. Model parameters showed mostly unimodal responses to temperature, with one parameter (predator mortality) increasing monotonically with temperature and one parameter (predator conversion efficiency) invariant with temperature. Our results indicate that temperature can have profound, systematic effects on ecological dynamics, and these can arise through diverse and simultaneous changes in multiple underlying mechanisms. Predicting the effects of temperature on ecological dynamics may require additional investigation into how the underlying drivers of population dynamics respond to temperature beyond a short-term, acute response.

Ecological regime shift preserved in the Anthropocene stratigraphic record.

Palaeoecological data are unique historical archives that extend back far beyond the last several decades of ecological observations. However, the fossil record of continental shelves has been perceived as too coarse (with centennial-millennial resolution) and incomplete to detect processes occurring at yearly or decadal scales relevant to ecology and conservation. Here, we show that the youngest (Anthropocene) fossil record on the northern Adriatic continental shelf provides decadal-scale resolution that accurately documents an abrupt ecological change affecting benthic communities during the twentieth century. The magnitude and the duration of the twentieth century shift in body size of the bivalve Corbula gibba is unprecedented given that regional populations of this species were dominated by small-size classes throughout the Holocene. The shift coincided with compositional changes in benthic assemblages, driven by an increase from approximately 25% to approximately 70% in median per-assemblage abundance of C. gibba. This regime shift increase occurred preferentially at sites that experienced at least one hypoxic event per decade in the twentieth century. Larger size and higher abundance of C. gibba probably reflect ecological release as it coincides with an increase in the frequency of seasonal hypoxia that triggered mass mortality of competitors and predators. Higher frequency of hypoxic events is coupled with a decline in the depth of intense sediment mixing by burrowing benthic organisms from several decimetres to less than 20 cm, significantly improving the stratigraphic resolution of the Anthropocene fossil record and making it possible to detect sub-centennial ecological changes on continental shelves.

Combine effects of square root functional response and prey refuge on predator–prey dynamics

ABSTRACT In this paper, a predator–prey interaction mathematical model has been developed incorporating prey refuge and square root functional response. It is considered that the prey species grow logistically in the absence of predator. Then, positivity and boundedness of solutions of our proposed system have been investigated. After that all possible equilibrium points of our proposed system are determined. Also, the local stability of our proposed system around the equilibrium points has been discussed. Global stability of interior equilibrium is also investigated. The Hopf bifurcation analysis has been done with respect to prey refuge rate (c), conservation rate of prey (b) and death rate of predator (d). Finally, some numerical-simulated results have been presented to test the validity of our theoretical findings.

Predation patterns across states of landscape fragmentation can shift with seasonal transitions.

Nested scales of habitat heterogeneity may independently or synergistically influence faunal interactions. Fragmentation effects (i.e., the breaking apart of landscapes) and edge effects (i.e., ecological differences between edges and interiors of patches, nested within landscapes) are distinct yet related ecological concepts, linked mathematically by the habitat edge-to-area ratio. Our study quantified the separate and interactive effects of fragmentation and edge on predation using temperate seagrass. To assess how predation and generalized consumption were influenced by fragmentation state (i.e., continuous, fragmented), and proximity to edge (i.e., edges, interiors), we used tethering assays with two prey-items: juvenile crabs, Callinectes sapidus, and "squidpops" (dried squid mantle). We also investigated whether faunal densities (a proxy for consumption potential) and temperature (a proxy for a broad suite of seasonal changes) correlated with predation across landscapes. Results showed fragmentation state affected predation (i.e., crab) mortality, yet edge effects did not. Moreover, the directionality of fragmentation effects shifted across a temperature/seasonal gradient. Predation mortality more than doubled in continuous landscapes amidst temperature increases, surpassing initially higher mortality in fragmented landscapes, which did not systematically vary with temperature. This mortality magnitude "flip" matched spatiotemporal trends in faunal densities between continuous and fragmented meadows. Consumption rates of both prey-items increased alongside temperature and neither demonstrated edge effects. However, crabs showed fragmentation effects not seen with squidpops, suggesting differing foraging strategies used by consumers of these prey-items. We conclude that fragmentation and edge effects have dynamic influences on temperate predator-prey interactions, as faunal favorability of habitat heterogeneity can "flip" temporally.

Micro- and mesozooplankton at the edges of coastal tropical reefs (Tamandar\xe9, Brazil)

Tropical reef ecosystems are generally considered to be sinks of marine zooplankton, mainly due to the predation by scleractinian corals and other planktivores. The present study aims to evaluate the zooplankton community of a coastal reef in two specific environments: the reef edge and open-water channels between patch reefs. Sampling was carried out at two patch reefs that border the Tamandaré coastal lagoon system (Pernambuco State, Brazil). Two passive stationary nets (64 μm mesh size) were used: the Reef Edge Net (REN) and the Channel Midwater Neuston Net (CMNN). Sampling was performed simultaneously at both reefs during eight nocturnal sampling campaigns, always at new moon ebb tides. Zooplankton was classified by “origin” (estuarine, reef, neritic and neritic/estuarine). During all campaigns and at both sites, a significant buildup of zooplankton at the reefs was observed. Reef edges showed significantly higher abundance (77,579 ± 73,985 ind. m−3) and biomass (48.9 ± 45.5 mg C m−3) of zooplankton compared to open-water channels (9982 ± 11,427 ind. m−3 and 11.4 ± 21.9 mg C m−3, respectively). A total of 65 taxonomic groups were identified. Copepods were the most abundant group with a contribution of 69% for total zooplankton abundance, followed by foraminiferans, gastropod veligers, appendicularians, cirripedians nauplii, and polychaete larvae. Copepods from neritic/estuarine environments dominated the reef edges in both relative abundance and relative biomass (91% and 88%, respectively). The unexpectedly high abundance of copepods and other holoplankton at the reef edges, when compared to Indo-Pacific and Caribbean reefs, is probably due to very low cover of corals and other zooplanktivorous sessile animals (< 0.2%) on these coastal reefs, which leads to a very low predation mortality for zooplankters. Also, we propose that the reduced water column above the reef top leads to a buildup of very high densities in these environments.

Predation mortality from ambush and cruising predators on newly-settled 0-group gadoids

We investigated predation from an ambush predator (shorthorn sculpin) and two cruising predators (Atlantic cod and saithe) on bottom-settled 0-group cod and saithe juveniles in a fjord in northern Norway. Stomach contents of potential fish predators caught by gill net in shallow waters (depth of 3–10 m) during September in 2013–2015 were analysed. The frequency of occurrence (FO) of 0-group gadoid prey was highest for shorthorn sculpin (FO = 10%) and cod (FO = 9%), while it was lower for saithe (FO = 0.8%). Each predatory fish species had different alternative prey to 0-group gadoids: shrimps for cod; sandeels for saithe; and Brachura/Anomura for shorthorn sculpin. Amongst the fish predators, shorthorn sculpin had the highest catch rates in gill nets. The mean number of 0-group cod and saithe in shorthorn sculpin stomachs increased with increasing abundance of prey as measured by beach seine hauls.Predation mortality from shorthorn sculpin was estimated based on abundance of shorthorn sculpins, number of 0-group cod and saithe juveniles in predator stomachs, prey recognition times and abundance of 0-group cod and saithe. The average predation mortality rate from shorthorn sculpin on 0-group gadoid juveniles varied from 0.40 to 1.14 month−1 between years and the pooled estimate from 2013 to 2015 was 0.70 month−1 (95%CI: 0.30, 1.73). This is comparable to mortality rates from other studies on newly-settled 0-group Atlantic cod, other gadoid species and plaice. Based on gill-net catches and stomach data from this study and literature values for gill-net catching area, calculated predation mortalities from the cruising cod and saithe were less than 47% of the sculpin predation mortality rates. This show that predation mortality from the ambush sculpin predator was much higher than from the cruising Atlantic cod and saithe.

Avian Predation on Steelhead is Consistent with Compensatory Mortality

ABSTRACTNumerous factors such as predation, disease, injury, and environmental conditions (e.g., river flows, hydropower operations) can influence survival rates of fish. Although mortality due to predation is commonly assumed to be additive and result in a directly proportional reduction on survival rates, compensatory processes may work to counteract or negate the effects of predation mortality on survival rates. We applied a random effects model to a long‐term, mark‐recapture‐recovery data set on anadromous steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) from the Snake River Basin in the northwestern United States to assess whether avian predation mortality constitutes an additive or compensatory source of mortality. Specifically, our assessment focused on predation mortality due to double‐crested cormorants (Phalacrocorax auritus) and Caspian terns (Hydroprogne caspia) on colonies in the Columbia River estuary. In addition, we evaluated several candidate environmental indices to examine potential interactions between the effects of predation versus environmental conditions on steelhead survival rates. Average predation rates were 3.3% for the double‐crested cormorant colony and 17.0% for the Caspian tern colony. For both colonies, the estimated correlation between the predation rate and survival rate of steelhead was near zero, indicating that mortality due to avian predation is compensatory. Models that included variables for river flow, juvenile migration timing, and an index of forage biomass in the ocean accounted for 56–59% of the variation in steelhead survival, whereas avian predation rates accounted for &lt;1% of the variation. Management efforts to reduce the abundance of the bird colonies are unlikely to improve the survival or conservation status of steelhead; however, results indicate that steelhead survival could be improved by hydropower management decisions that increase river flows and reduce juvenile migration delays. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.

Estimating egg mass–body mass relationships in birds

Abstract The mass of a bird’s egg is a critical attribute of the species’ life history and represents a fundamental component of reproductive effort. Indeed, the tradeoff between the number of eggs in a clutch and clutch mass lies at the heart of understanding how environmental attributes such as nest predation or adult mortality influence reproductive investment. However, egg masses have not been reported for the majority of avian species. We capitalized on the strong allometric relationship between avian body mass and egg mass to produce egg mass estimates for over 5,500 species previously lacking such information. These estimates are accompanied by measures of the robustness of the regressions used to produce them (e.g., sample size, root mean square error [RMSE] of estimation, coefficient of determination, and degree of extrapolation), thus allowing independent evaluation of the suitability of any estimate to address a particular research question relating to avian life history. Most estimates (~5,000) were based on family-level egg mass–body mass regressions, with the remainder derived from other relationships such as ordinal regressions. We compared estimating regressions based on adult vs. female body masses and, after finding little difference between the 2, based our final estimates on adult masses as those were more numerous in the literature. What small differences between adult- and female-based regressions that did occur were not related to sexual size dimorphism across families. These new estimates, coupled with ~5,000 egg masses reported in the literature, provide a foundation of over 10,000 species for wider investigations assessing variation in reproductive effort in birds over a broad array of ecological and evolutionary contexts.

Can contamination by major systemic insecticides affect the voracity of the harlequin ladybird?

Systemic neurotoxic insecticides are widely used to control aphid pests worldwide and their potential non-target effects on aphid predators are often unknown. Behavioral responses linked to biological control services are crucial when assessing the compatibility of chemicals with biocontrol organisms. This is particularly relevant for insecticides at low and sublethal concentrations. We studied the acute toxicity and the sublethal effect on the voracity of the generalist predator Harmonia axyridis (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) caused by the exposure to three systemic insecticides routinely used against aphids. The tested insecticide concentrations were the Lethal Concentration 50% (LC50), 20% (LC20) and 1% (LC1) estimated for the target pest Aphis gossypii (Hemiptera: Aphididae) in a companion study. The survival and the voracity differed among the tested chemicals and concentrations, but only thiamethoxam at LC50 caused a significant predator mortality, and individuals that survived showed a reduced predation rate. The predators showed a density independent functional response after the exposure to most of the insecticide-concentration combinations, while an inverse density dependence of the prey consumption rate was observed for coccinellids exposed to sulfoxaflor and thiamethoxam at their lowest tested concentration. The estimated parameters, i.e., the attack rate and the prey handling time, were affected at higher concentrations by both imidacloprid and sulfoxaflor. These findings stress the importance of carefully evaluating side effects of insecticides at very low concentrations on beneficial arthropods in the risk assessment schemes for sustainable pest control programmes.

Combined thermal and insecticidal stresses on the generalist predator Macrolophus pygmaeus

Ecotoxicological risk assessments of pesticides on non-target arthropods are often carried out under constant and optimal temperature regimes. However, living organisms rarely experience these conditions in real field situations. Understanding the impact of pesticides on non-target beneficial arthropods under temperature stresses is especially important in terms of global warming. We assessed the lethal and sublethal effects of four modern insecticides (chlorantraniliprole, cyantraniliprole, spinetoram, spinosad), on the generalist predator Macrolophus pygmaeus (Hemiptera: Miridae) under a range of temperatures (from 10 to 40°C) frequently experienced in a real field scenario. A reduction coefficient (Ex) was calculated by summarizing the mortality and predator reproductive capacity and, the chemicals were classified according to the International Organization for Biological Control (IOBC) toxicity classes. The insecticides showed a marked synergistic effect with temperature, as the predator mortality and reproductive outputs were significantly correlated with increasing temperatures. Spinosyns interacted significantly with temperature causing the highest mortality and lowest fertility rates. Anthranilic diamides showed a safer ecotoxicological profile compared to spinosyns, with cyantraniliprole being more harmful than chlorantraniliprole. These results suggest that temperature should be taken into account in pesticide ecotoxicology studies within the framework of integrated pest management and the recent climate changes.

A note on a stage-specific predator–prey stochastic model

In this work we analyze a modified version of a stage-specific structure in a predator prey model recently introduced in the literature. We assume that the predator death rate is subject to randomness and we discuss, through both a theoretical and a computational approach, about the influence of this assumption in the behavior of the process.

Density-dependent effects of mortality on the optimal body size to shift habitat: Why smaller is better despite increased mortality risk.

Many animal species across different taxa change their habitat during their development. An ontogenetic habitat shift enables the development of early vulnerable‐to‐predation stages in a safe “nursery” habitat with reduced predation mortality, whereas less vulnerable stages can exploit a more risky, rich feeding habitat. Therefore, the timing of the habitat shift is crucial for individual fitness. We investigate the effect that size selectivity in mortality in the rich feeding habitat has on the optimal body size at which to shift between habitats using a population model that incorporates density dependence. We show that when mortality risk is more size dependent, it is optimal to switch to the risky habitat at a smaller rather than larger body size, despite that individuals can avoid mortality by staying longer in the nursery habitat and growing to safety in size. When size selectivity in mortality is high, large reproducing individuals are abundant and produce numerous offspring that strongly compete in the nursery habitat. A smaller body size at habitat shift is therefore favored because strong competition reduces growth potential. Our results reveal the interdependence among population structure, density dependence, and life history traits, and highlight the need for integrating ecological feedbacks in the study of life history evolution.

Enhanced recruitment of larger predators in the presence of large prey.

Most carnivores undergo diet shift from smaller to larger prey items during ontogeny. The trophic relationship between a growing carnivore and larger prey is representative of a size-structured predator-prey interaction. The strength of this interaction is, in part, determined by the recruitment of individuals from smaller predatory size classes into larger predatory size classes. Therefore, it is interesting to investigate how larger prey alter the recruitment of smaller predator size classes into larger predator size classes, since this can affect their own future predation risk. Past empirical studies have exclusively documented that large prey reduce predator recruitment by decreasing growth and/or survival of the smaller predators. In this study, we provide empirical evidence of the contrasting pattern: large prey enhance the recruitment of smaller predators into larger predators even though they increase cannibalism mortality of the smaller predators. We have done this here by studying the trophic interaction between predatory salamander larvae Hynobius retardatus and the frog tadpoles Rana pirica that represent their large prey. In a field experiment in which salamander hatchlings were exposed to the presence or absence of large frog tadpoles, we found that more giant salamanders emerged in the presence of frog tadpoles than in their absence. Reassignment of frog tadpoles (to both treatments) in the subsequent experimental period showed that the enhanced emergence of giant salamanders in the presence of frog tadpoles leads to the intensification of salamander predation on the frog tadpoles. In an additional laboratory experiment, to better understand the underlying mechanisms, we manipulated both the presence of frog tadpoles and the occurrence of cannibalism between salamander hatchlings. This experiment revealed that frog tadpoles intensify the cannibalism of salamander larvae during their hatchling stage, thus allowing more salamander larvae to become large-sized predators. Our results suggest that frog tadpoles can inadvertently intensify their own future predation risk by intensifying cannibalistic interactions among predatory salamander hatchlings, thereby enhancing the degree of predator recruitment to a larger size class. Hence, large prey can enhance the recruitment of individuals from small predator size classes into larger predator size classes.

A life cycle simulation model for exploring causes of population change in Alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus)

Over the last two decades, major changes in abundance and population characteristics of Alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus), an anadromous herring species, have been observed along the US Atlantic coast. Loss of spawning habitat, bycatch mortality in the directed pelagic fisheries, increased predation mortality by rebounding predators such as Striped Bass, changes in water flow and temperature affecting recruitment success, changes in ocean thermal habitat and direct and indirect effects of changes in zooplankton community have been expounded by different researchers as putative hypotheses for population changes in Alewife. Unfortunately, long-term, concurrently-measured time series of regional factors and direct measures of biological processes needed to elucidate underlying causes are severely lacking for Alewife. Therefore, we developed, calibrated and validated a mechanistic, spatially-explicit, full life-cycle simulation model that can be used to explore population responses of Alewife to various exogeneous drivers. Daily processes such as spawning, recruitment, mortality, exploitation, predation and movements are generated by using empirically-derived deterministic and stochastic relationships and time-series of environmental data linked to specific life stages. We demonstrate the use of the model as an investigative tool by simulating three hypotheses and comparing model results to observed trends in Alewife populations from southern New England.