Mortality In Emergency Department Patients Research Articles

Machine learning-based prediction of acute mortality in emergency department patients using twelve-lead electrocardiogram.

The risk of mortality is relatively high among patients who visit the emergency department (ED), and stratifying patients at high risk can help improve medical care. This study aimed to create a machine-learning model that utilizes the standard 12-lead ECG to forecast acute mortality risk in ED patients. The database included patients who visited the EDs and underwent standard 12-lead ECG between October 2007 and December 2017. A convolutional neural network (CNN) ECG model was developed to classify survival and mortality using 12-lead ECG tracings acquired from 345,593 ED patients. For machine learning model development, the patients were randomly divided into training, validation and testing datasets. The performance of the mortality risk prediction in this model was evaluated for various causes of death. Patients who visited the ED and underwent one or more ECG examinations experienced a high incidence of 30-day mortality [18,734 (5.42%)]. The developed CNN model demonstrated high accuracy in predicting acute mortality (hazard ratio 8.50, 95% confidence interval 8.20-8.80) with areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.84 for the 30-day mortality risk prediction models. This CNN model also demonstrated good performance in predicting one-year mortality (hazard ratio 3.34, 95% confidence interval 3.30-3.39). This model exhibited good predictive performance for 30-day mortality not only for cardiovascular diseases but also across various diseases. The machine learning-based ECG model utilizing CNN screens the risks for 30-day mortality. This model can complement traditional early warning scoring indexes as a useful screening tool for mortality prediction.

Prognostic Value of a New Tool (the 3D/3D+) for Predicting 30-Day Mortality in Emergency Department Patients Aged 75 Years and Older.

The 3D/3D+ multidimensional geriatric assessment tool provides an optimal model of emergency care for patients aged 75 and over who attend the Emergency Department (ED). The baseline, or static, component (3D) stratifies the degree of frailty prior to the acute illness, while the current, or dynamic, component (3D+) assesses the multidimensional impact caused by the acute illness and helps to guide the choice of care facility for patients upon their discharge from the ED. The objective of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of the 3D/3D+ to predict short- and long-term adverse outcomes in ED patients aged 75 years and older. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify the predictors of mortality 30 days after 3D/3D+ assessment. Two hundred and seventy-eight patients (59.7% women) with a median age of 86 years (interquartile range: 83-90) were analyzed. According to the baseline component (3D), 83.1% (95% CI: 78.2-87.3) presented some degree of frailty. The current component (3D+) presented alterations in 60.1% (95% CI: 54.1-65.9). The choice of care facility at ED discharge indicated by the 3D/3D+ was considered appropriate in 96.4% (95% CI: 93.0-98.0). Thirty-day all-cause mortality was 19.4%. Delirium and functional decline were the dimensions on the 3D/3D+ that were independently associated with 30-day mortality. These two dimensions had an area under receiver operating characteristic of 0.80 (95% CI: 0.73-0.86) for predicting 30-day mortality. The 3D/3D+ tool enhances the provision of comprehensive care by ED professionals, guides them in the choice of patients' discharge destination, and has a prognostic validity that serves to establish future therapeutic objectives.

Sex differences in clinical presentation and mortality in emergency department patients with sepsis

Background There is growing awareness that sex differences are associated with different patient outcomes in a variety of diseases. Studies investigating the effect of patient sex on sepsis-related mortality remain inconclusive and mainly focus on patients with severe sepsis and septic shock in the intensive care unit. We therefore investigated the association between patient sex and both clinical presentation and 30-day mortality in patients with the whole spectrum of sepsis severity presenting to the emergency department (ED) who were admitted to the hospital. Materials and methods In our multi-centre cohort study, we retrospectively investigated adult medical patients with sepsis in the ED. Multivariable analysis was used to evaluate the association between patient sex and all-cause 30-day mortality. Results Of 2065 patients included, 47.6% were female. Female patients had significantly less comorbidities, lower Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score and abbreviated Mortality Emergency Department Sepsis score, and presented less frequently with thrombocytopenia and fever, compared to males. For both sexes, respiratory tract infections were predominant while female patients more often had urinary tract infections. Females showed lower 30-day mortality (10.1% vs. 13.6%; p = .016), and in-hospital mortality (8.0% vs. 11.1%; p = .02) compared to males. However, a multivariable logistic regression model showed that patient sex was not an independent predictor of 30-day mortality (OR 0.90; 95% CI 0.67–1.22; p = .51). Conclusions Females with sepsis presenting to the ED had fewer comorbidities, lower disease severity, less often thrombocytopenia and fever and were more likely to have a urinary tract infection. Females had a lower in-hospital and 30-day mortality compared to males, but sex was not an independent predictor of 30-day mortality. The lower mortality in female patients may be explained by differences in comorbidity and clinical presentation compared to male patients. KEY MESSAGES Only limited data exist on sex differences in sepsis patients presenting to the emergency department with the whole spectrum of sepsis severity. Female sepsis patients had a lower incidence of comorbidities, less disease severity and a different source of infection, which explains the lower 30-day mortality we found in female patients compared to male patients. We found that sex was not an independent predictor of 30-day mortality; however, the study was probably underpowered to evaluate this outcome definitively.

Comparison of mortality in emergency department patients with immediate versus delayed hypotension

BackgroundHypotension in the emergency department (ED) is known to be associated with increased mortality, however, the relationship between timing of hypotension and mortality has not been investigated. The objective of the study was to compare the mortality rate of patients presenting with hypotension with those who develop hypotension while in the ED. MethodsThis was a retrospective cohort study in a large academic medical center collected from January 2018–December 2021. Patients were included if they were ≥ 18 years old and had at least one recorded systolic blood pressure (SBP) ≤ 90 in the ED. Patients were separated into medical and trauma presentations by chief compliant. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality, which included any deaths between ED arrival and hospital discharge. Further analysis examined the association of time to the first hypotensive SBP measurement with mortality. ResultsThere were 212,085 adult patients who presented to the ED during the study period, with 4053 (1.9%) patients having at least one hypotensive blood pressure measurement. The mortality rate was 0.8% for all patients and 10.0% for patients with hypotension. There were 676 unique chief complaints, of which 86 (12.7%) were determined to be trauma related. This grouping resulted in 176,947(83.4%) patients classified as medical and 35,138(16.6%) patients as trauma. For patients presenting with medical complaints, there was not a significant difference in mortality for patients who were hypotensive on arrival and those who developed hypotension during their ED stay (RR 1.19 [95% CI:0.97–1.39]). Similarly, there was no difference for patients with trauma (RR 0.6 [95% CI: 0.31–1.24]). However, for all patients, there was a significant trend toward decreased mortality for every hour after arrival until the development of hypotension, and increased mortality with increasing number of hypotensive measurements recorded. ConclusionThis study demonstrated hypotension in the ED was associated with a very significantly increased risk of in-hospital mortality. However, there was no significant increase in mortality between those patients with hypotension on arrival those who develop hypotension while in the ED. These finding underscore the importance of careful hemodynamic monitoring for patients in the ED throughout their stay.

Modified Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score for predicting mortality in emergency department patients with sepsis.

Several scoring systems have been proposed for EDs to identify patients at increased risk of mortality from sepsis. The modified Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (mSOFA) score, proposed in 2019, demonstrated a high negative predictive value. We aimed to validate mSOFA and compare its accuracy for predicting 30-day mortality to the simple bedside score, quick SOFA (qSOFA). Over 1 month in 2018, consecutive patients with suspected sepsis were prospectively identified. A retrospective chart review was conducted to calculate both the mSOFA and qSOFA scores for these patients. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. There were 252 patients with suspected sepsis identified over the study period. Thirty-day mortality was 13/39 (33.3%) for those with a positive mSOFA and 15/211 (7.1%) for those with a negative mSOFA score. Sensitivity was 46.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] 27.5-66.1%), specificity 88.3% (95% CI 83.3-92.2%), positive likelihood ratio 3.96 (95% CI 2.32-6.78), negative likelihood ratio 0.61 (95% CI 0.43-0.86). The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.74 (95% CI 0.64-0.85). qSOFA sensitivity was 39.3% (95% CI 21.5-59.4%), specificity 91.9% (95% CI 87.5-95.1%), positive likelihood ratio 4.85 (95% CI 2.56-9.18) and negative likelihood ratio 0.66 (95% CI 0.49-0.89). The AUC for qSOFA was 0.81 (95% CI 0.73-0.88). The difference in the AUC was -0.07 (95% CI -0.18 to 0.05), P=0.25. In the present study, neither mSOFA nor qSOFA was adequately sensitive for predicting 30-day mortality, although both scores were highly specific and their overall accuracy was similar. The added complexity of the mSOFA without a significant increase in discriminative ability makes it unlikely to replace qSOFA in the ED setting.

Presepsin levels for discriminating sepsis and predicting mortality among organ failure patients stratified by hypercreatinemia

To evaluate the accuracy of presepsin levels in diagnosing sepsis and predicting mortality among organ failure patients with and without hypercreatinemia in the emergency department (ED). This retrospective study was conducted on patients with positive quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA) score and increase in SOFA score of ≥2 points. Hypercreatinemia, indicated by a creatinine level of ≥1.2 mg/dL, was defined as points ≥1 on the renal component of the SOFA score. The patients were divided into group 1 (sepsis with hypercreatinemia), group 2 (sepsis without hypercreatinemia), group 3 (non-sepsis with hypercreatinemia), and group 4 (non-sepsis without hypercreatinemia), and their presepsin levels were compared. Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analyses were performed to determine the accuracy of presepsin in diagnosing sepsis and predicting 30-day mortality. The optimal cutoff values were obtained to determine the presence of sepsis and predict the 30-day mortality. In all, 420 patients were eligible for this study. The presepsin levels in all pairwise comparisons between the groups were different (Group 1; 1311.5 (732.0–2179.5), Group 2; 566.5 (353.0–928.0), Group 3; 400.0 (291.0–579.0), Group 4; 231.0 (154.0–346.0)). Among patients with hypercreatinemia, the presepsin area under the ROC (AUROC) for diagnosing sepsis was 0.884 (optimal cutoff: 706 pg/mL). Among patients without hypercreatinemia, the presepsin AUROC for diagnosing sepsis was 0.854 (optimal cutoff: 352 pg/mL). The optimal cutoff values for predicting the patients’ 30-day mortality with and without hypercreatinemia were 1077 pg/mL and 393 pg/mL, respectively. Different cutoff values of presepsin based on creatinine levels could effectively diagnose sepsis in ED patients with organ failure. Further, presepsin was found to be associated with 30-day mortality in ED patients with organ failure, regardless of hypercreatinemia.

Utility of carotid ultrasound on prediction of 1-year mortality in emergency department patients with neurological deficits: A 10-year population-based cohort study.

This study aimed to investigate the association between the carotid ultrasound results and 1-yr mortality of patients with neurological deficits in the emergency department (ED). This study included patients with neurological symptoms who presented to the ED between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2018, and underwent sonographic imaging of the bilateral carotid bulb, common carotid artery (CCA), internal carotid artery (ICA), and external carotid arteries. A stenosis degree of >50% was defined as significant carotid stenosis. Carotid plaque score (CPS) was calculated by adding the score of stenosis severity of all segments. The association between carotid ultrasound results and 1-yr mortality was investigated using the Cox regression model. The analysis included 7,961 patients (median age: 69 yr; men: 58.7%). Among them, 247 (3.1%) passed away from cardiovascular (CV)-related causes, and 746 (9.4%) died within a year. The mortality group presented with more significant carotid stenosis of the carotid bulb, CCA, or ICA and had a higher median CPS. A higher CPS was associated with a greater 1-yr all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.08; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.03-1.13; p = 0.001; log-rank p < 0.001) and CV-related mortality (aHR = 1.13; 95% CI = 1.04-1.22; p = 0.002, log-rank p < 0.001). Significant stenosis of either carotid artery segment did not result in a higher risk of 1-yr mortality. We comprehensively investigated the utility of carotid ultrasound parameters on predicting mortality in this 10-yr population-based cohort, which included over 7,000 patients with acute neurological deficits presented to the ED. The result showed that CPS could be used as risk stratification tools for 1-yr all-cause and CV mortality.

Abstract 15828: Baseline Hs-ctnt Concentrations Within the Sex-Specific Reference Range and Index Mortality in Emergency Department Patients

Background: High-sensitivity (hs) cardiac troponin (cTn) assays quantifies cTn in most healthy men and women. Whether quantifiable cTn concentrations below the 99 th percentile upper-reference limit have short term prognostic implications in emergency department (ED) patients remains uncertain. Methods: Multicenter (n=22) United States (US) cohort of ED patients undergoing at least one hs-cTnT measurement (CV Data Mart Biomarker cohort). For this assay, the lowest reportable concentration is &lt;6 ng/L. Sex-specific 99 th percentiles of 10 ng/L for women and 15 ng/L for men were used. The primary outcome was index hospitalization mortality. Results: A total of 85610 patients were examined, including 43043 women and 42567 men. A total of 775 index hospitalization deaths (0.91%) occurred, including 361 (0.84%) in women and 414 (0.97%) in men. Among women, baseline hs-cTnT concentrations were non-quantifiable (&lt;LoQ) in 37.5%, quantifiable (LoQ-99 th ) in 21.6%, and increased &gt;99 th percentile in 40.9%. Among men, baseline hs-cTnT concentrations were non-quantifiable (&lt;LoQ) in 20.0%, quantifiable (LoQ-99 th ) in 37.4%, and increased &gt;99 th percentile in 42.6%. Patients with higher concentrations were more likely to be older and had more comorbidities. Continuous baseline hs-cTnT (log) were associated with a higher odds of index hospitalization mortality (OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.24-1.28). Following multivariable analyses, quantifiable hs-cTnT (LoQ-99 th ) also were associated with index hospitalization mortality in all patients (OR 2.07, 95% 1.22-3.53), and in both women (OR 3.13, 95% CI 1.51-6.50) and men (OR 2.17, 95% 1.28-3.69) (Figure). Conclusions: Hs-cTnT concentrations within the reference range are more common in men than in women. Quantifiable hs-cTnT concentrations within the sex-specific reference range are associated with a higher risk of index hospitalization mortality, with a larger prognostic effect in women than in men.

Abstract 14708: Cardiovascular Calcium Scoring by Deep Learning is Predictive of Mortality in Emergency Department Patients

Introduction: Computed tomography (CT) imaging is widely used in the emergency department (ED) setting. Calcifications of the coronary arteries, heart valves, and aorta are common incidental findings that may herald clinical or subclinical cardiovascular disease. Hypothesis: We sought to determine whether the quantitative burden of cardiovascular calcifications, as measured by a CT-based deep learning pipeline, would be predictive of short-term mortality in a diverse population of ED patients. Methods: We conducted a prospective single-center cohort study nested in the Quebec COVID-19 Biobank from March 2020 to September 2021. For the purposes of this study, we enlisted adult patients presenting to the ED with cardiopulmonary symptoms who were tested for COVID-19 and underwent CT imaging of the chest. We used a deep learning model previously developed by our team to automate the quantitative scoring of coronary artery calcification (CAC), aortic valve calcification (AVC), mitral annular calcification (MAC), and thoracic aorta calcification (TAC) from the CT images. These calcium scores were categorized as sex-stratified tertiles plus a zero-score referent category. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality at 30 and 90 days adjusted for age, sex, and COVID-19 status using multivariable logistic regression. Results: The study sample consisted of 731 ED visits among 271 unique patients with a mean age of 66 years and 47% females. COVID-19 illness was the main diagnosis in 29% of ED visits. The prevalence of any quantifiable calcification was 51% for CAC, 33% for AVC, 23% for MAC, and 80% for TAC. The statistically significant adjusted odds ratios for mortality were 2.50 (1.08, 5.81) in the highest AVC tertile at 30 days, 2.73 (1.37 5.47) in the highest CAC tertile at 90 days, and 4.42 (1.01, 19.4) in the highest TAC tertile at 90 days. These odds ratio remained similar after further adjustment for past history of myocardial infarction or heart failure. Conclusions: High calcium scores in the coronary arteries, aortic valve, and thoracic aorta are associated with heightened 30-day mortality in ED patients. Deep learning quantification of calcium scores from clinical CT scans is an opportunistic approach for risk stratification.

PR interval prolongation and 1-year mortality among emergency department patients: a multicentre transnational cohort study

ObjectivesEmerging evidence supports that PR interval prolongation is associated with increased mortality. However, most previous studies have limited confounder control, and clinical impact in a population of acute ill patients...

86 Comparison of Mortality in Emergency Department Patients With Immediate versus Delayed Hypotension

Hypotension is an important indicator of inadequate systemic perfusion associated with a high rate of mortality for patients admitted to the hospital. However, there is limited research regarding hypotension in the emergency department (ED). The objective of this study was to determine the mortality rate of ED patients who are hypotensive on arrival compared to patients who become hypotensive in the ED. It was hypothesized that mortality rate would be higher for patients who were hypotensive on arrival due to concern for a potential delay in treatment.

Development and validation of a scoring system for mortality prediction and application of standardized W statistics to assess the performance of emergency departments

BackgroundIn-hospital mortality and short-term mortality are indicators that are commonly used to evaluate the outcome of emergency department (ED) treatment. Although several scoring systems and machine learning-based approaches have been suggested to grade the severity of the condition of ED patients, methods for comparing severity-adjusted mortality in general ED patients between different systems have yet to be developed. The aim of the present study was to develop a scoring system to predict mortality in ED patients using data collected at the initial evaluation and to validate the usefulness of the scoring system for comparing severity-adjusted mortality between institutions with different severity distributions.MethodsThe study was based on the registry of the National Emergency Department Information System, which is maintained by the National Emergency Medical Center of the Republic of Korea. Data from 2016 were used to construct the prediction model, and data from 2017 were used for validation. Logistic regression was used to build the mortality prediction model. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to evaluate the performance of the prediction model. We calculated the standardized W statistic and its 95% confidence intervals using the newly developed mortality prediction model.ResultsThe area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the developed scoring system for the prediction of mortality was 0.883 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.882–0.884). The Ws score calculated from the 2016 dataset was 0.000 (95% CI: − 0.021 – 0.021). The Ws score calculated from the 2017 dataset was 0.049 (95% CI: 0.030–0.069).ConclusionsThe scoring system developed in the present study utilizing the parameters gathered in initial ED evaluations has acceptable performance for the prediction of in-hospital mortality. Standardized W statistics based on this scoring system can be used to compare the performance of an ED with the reference data or with the performance of other institutions.

Validating the RISE UP score for predicting prognosis in patients with COVID-19 in the emergency department: a retrospective study

ObjectiveTo mitigate the burden of COVID-19 on the healthcare system, information on the prognosis of the disease is needed. The recently developed Risk Stratification in the Emergency Department in Acutely...

Relative Hyperlactatemia in the Emergency Department.

Objective: The clinical interpretation of lactate ≤ 2.00 mmol/L in emergency department (ED) patients is not well-characterized. This study aims to determine the optimal cutoff value for lactate within the reference range that predicts in-hospital mortality among ED patients.Methods: This was a retrospective study of adult patients presenting to a tertiary ED with an initial serum lactate level of <2.00 mmol/L. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Youden's index was utilized to determine the optimal threshold that predicts mortality. Patients above the threshold were labeled as having relative hyperlactatemia.Results: During the study period, 1,638 patients were included. The mean age was 66.9 ± 18.6 years, 47.1% of the population were female, and the most prevalent comorbidity was hypertension (56.7%). The mean lactate level at presentation was 1.5 ± 0.3 mmol/L. In-hospital mortality was 3.8% in the overall population, and 16.2% were admitted to the ICU. A lactate level of 1.33 mmol/L was found to be the optimal cutoff that best discriminates between survivors and non-survivors. Relative hyperlactatemia was an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality (OR 1.78 C1.18–4.03; p = 0.02). Finally, relative hyperlactatemia was associated with increased mortality in patients without hypertension (4.7 vs. 1.1%; p = 0.008), as well as patients without diabetes or COPD.Conclusion: The optimal cutoff of initial serum lactate that discriminates between survivors and non-survivors in the ED is 1.33 mmol/L. Relative hyperlactatemia is associated with increased mortality in emergency department patients, and this interaction seems to be more important in healthy patients.

Selected Hematological Biomarkers to Predict Acute Mortality in Emergency Department Patients. Recent Polish Hospital Statistics.

Background Complete blood count (CBC), red cell distribution width (RDW), mean platelet volume (MPV), mean corpuscular volume (MCV), mean cell hemoglobin (MCH), mean cell hemoglobin concentration (MCHC), or platelet (PLT) count are referred as predictors of adverse clinical outcomes in patients. The aim of the research was to identify potential factors of acute mortality in Polish emergency department (ED) patients by using selected hematological biomarkers and routine statistical tools. Methods The study presents statistical results on patients who were recently discharged from inpatient facilities within one month prior to the index ED visit. In total, the analysis comprised 14,881 patients with the first RDW, MPV, MCV, MCH, MCHC, or PLT biomarkers' measurements recorded in the emergency department within the years 2016–2019 with a subsequent one month of all-cause mortality observation. The patients were classified with the codes of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems after 10th Revision (ICD10). Results Based on the analysis of RDW, MPV, MCV, MCH, MCHC, and PLT on acute deaths in patients, we establish strong linear and quadratic relationships between the risk factors under study and the clinical response (P < 0.05), however, with different mortality courses and threats. In our statistical analysis, (1) gradient linear relationships were found for RDW and MPV along an entire range of the analyzed biomarkers' measurements, (2) following the quadratic modeling, an increasing risk of death above 95 fL was determined for MCV, and (3) no relation to excess death in ED patients was calculated for MCH, MCHC, and PLT. Conclusion The study shows that there are likely relationships between blood counts and expected patient mortality at some time interval from measurements. Up to 1 month of observation since the first measurement of an hematological biomarker, RDW and MPV stand for a strong relationship with acute mortality of patients, whereas MCV, MCH, MCHC, and PLT give the U-shaped association, RDW and MPV can be established as the stronger predictors of early deaths of patients, MCV only in the highest levels (>95 fL), whereas MCH, MCHC, and PLT have no impact on the excess acute mortality in ED patients.

Prognostic performance of peripheral perfusion index and shock index combined with ESI to predict hospital outcome

IntroductionPeripheral perfusion index (PPI) and shock index (SI) are considered valuable predictors of hospital outcome and mortality in various operative and intensive care settings. In the present study, we evaluated the prognostic capabilities of these parameters for performing emergency department (ED) triage, as represented by the emergency severity index (ESI). MethodsThis prospective cross-sectional study included 367 patients aged older than 18 years who visited the ED of a tertiary referral hospital. The ESI triage levels with PPI, SI, and other basic vital sign parameters were recorded for each patient. The hospital outcome of the patients at the end of the ED period, such as discharge, admission to the hospital and death were recorded. ResultsA total of 367 patients (M/F: 178/189) admitted to the ED were categorized according to ESI and included in the study. A decrease in diastolic BP, SpO2 and PPI increased the likelihood of hospitalization and 30-day mortality. Based on univariate analysis, a significant improvement in performance was found by using age, diastolic BP, mean arterial pressure, SpO2, SI and PPI in terms of predicting high acuity level patients (ESI < 3). In the multivariable analysis only SpO2 and PPI were found to predict ESI < 3 patients. ConclusionPeripheral perfusion index and SI as novel triage instruments might provide useful information for predicting hospital admission and mortality in ED patients. The addition of these parameters to existing triage instruments such as ESI could enhance the triage specificity in unselected patients admitted to ED.

NEWS and qSIRS superior to qSOFA in the prediction of 30-day mortality in emergency department patients in Hong Kong

Background We aim to compare the prognostic value of Quick Sepsis-Related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) and the previous Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) criteria, the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) and along with their combinations in the emergency department (ED). Methods This single-centre prospective study recruited a convenience sample of unselected ED patients triaged as category 2 (Emergency) and 3 (Urgent). Receiver Operating Characteristic analyses were performed to determine the Area Under the Curve (AUC), along with sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, positive and negative likelihood ratios for the various scores. Results Of 1253 patients recruited, overall 30-day mortality was 5.7%. The prognostic value for prediction of 30-day mortality, with AUCs for qSOFA ≥2, SIRS ≥2, NEWS ≥5, qSIRS (qSOFA + SIRS) ≥2 and NSIRS (NEWS + SIRS) ≥5 of 0.56 (95%CI 0.53–0.58), 0.61 (95%CI 0.58–0.64), 0.61 (95%CI 0.58–0.64), 0.64 (95%CI 0.62–0.67) and 0.61 (95%CI 0.58–0.63), respectively. Using pairwise comparisons of ROC curves, NEWS ≥5 and qSIRS ≥2 were better than qSOFA ≥2 at predicting 30-day mortality. Conclusions Among unselected emergency and urgent ED patients, the prognostic value for NEWS and qSIRS were greater than qSOFA, Combinations of qSOFA and SIRS could improve the predictive value for 30-day mortality for ED patients. Key messages NEWS ≥5 and qSIRS ≥2 were better than qSOFA ≥2 at predicting 30-day mortality in ED patients. Combinations of qSOFA and SIRS could improve the predictive value for 30-day mortality for ED patients.

The role of illness acuity on the association between frailty and mortality in emergency department patients referred to internal medicine.

Backgroundwe investigated whether two frailty tools predicted mortality among emergency department (ED) patients referred to internal medicine and how the level of illness acuity influenced any association between frailty and mortality.Methodstwo tools, embedded in a Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA), were the clinical frailty scale (CFS) and a 57-item deficit accumulation frailty index (FI-CGA). Illness acuity was assessed using the Canadian Triage and Acuity Scale (CTAS). We examined all-cause 30-day and 6-month mortality and time to death.Resultsin 808 ED patients (mean age ± SD 80.8 ± 8.8, 54.4% female), the mean FI-CGA score was 0.44 ± 0.14, and the CFS was 5.6 ± 1.6. A minority (307; 38%) were classified as having high acuity (CTAS: 1–2). The 30-day mortality rate was 17%; this increased to 34% at 6 months. Compared to well patients with low acuity, the risk of 30-day mortality was 22.5 times (95% CI: 9.35–62.12) higher for severely frail patients with high acuity; 53% of people with very severe frailty (CFS = 8) and high acuity died within 30 days. When acuity was low, the risk for 30-day mortality was significantly higher only among those with very high levels of frailty (CFS 7–9, FI-CGA > 0.5). When acuity was high, even lower levels of frailty (CFS 5–6, FI-CGA 0.4–0.5) were associated with higher 30-day mortality.Conclusionsacross levels of frailty, higher acuity increased mortality risk. When acuity was low, the risk was significant only when the degree of frailty was high, whereas when acuity was high, even lower levels of frailty were associated with greater mortality risk.

Red Blood Cells Mean Corpuscular Volume (MCV) and Red Blood Distribution Width (RDW) Parameters as Potential Indicators of Regenerative Potential in Older Patients and Predictors of Acute Mortality \u2013 Preliminary Report

This study presents the statistical results of patients who had been recently discharged from hospital within one month after their treatment in the emergency department (ED). Using routine (14,881) MCV and RDW measurements and statistical tools, we could predict acute mortality in these patients (N = 1158), adjusted for age. It is likely that an increase in the MCV and RDW parameters may correlate in some of our older patients with a poor prognosis with an increased level of circulating IGF–I, which affects red blood cell parameters. The research presents the prognostic statistics of the analyzed clinical factors as well as speculates on the potential correlation of these parameters with the regenerative potential of stem-cell compartment. Analysis shows that both MCV and RDW are statistically significant (Area Under Curve [AUC], lower CI 95% >50%) predictors of acute mortality in ED patients. The classification of patients based on their MCV threshold (= 92.2 units) indicates a proper clinical prognosis in nearly 6 of 10 subjects (AUC >58%), whereas taking into account RDW (=13.8%) indicates a proper clinical prognosis in no more than 7 of 10 individuals. The report concludes that by employing strongly fitting (95%) quadratic modeling of the ORs against the biomarkers studied, one can notice a similar relationship between MCV and RDW as diagnostic tools to predict regenerative potential and clinical outcomes in older patients. Although RDW alone had a 10% higher diagnostic value in terms of predicting early death in the emergency department in patients that were admitted to the ED and subsequently hospitalized, also taking the MCV measurement improved accuracy in predicting clinical outcomes by 2.5% compared to RDW alone.

Predictors of mortality in emergency department patients with chest pain without cardiovascular emergencies.

Chest pain is one of the most frequent symptoms in patients seeking treatment at emergency departments (ED). These patients differ according to the cause of their reported symptoms and resultant mortality. Evaluation of the influence of hospitalization and biochemical parameters on mortality rates in patients admitted to the ED with chest pain, in whom no cardiovascular emergencies were established. The study group consisted of 243 patients with chest pain admitted to the ED in the Wroclaw Medical University Clinical Hospital, Poland, between January 1 and March 31, 2015, in whom no specific diagnosis was made at discharge. A retrospective analysis was carried out based on medical documentation, and 60-day and 1-year survival was assessed. In the study group, the 60-day mortality rate was 0.8% (2 persons) while the 1-year mortality rate was 6.6% (16 persons). The stepwise multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that 1-year mortality was related to increased level of D-dimer (odds ratio (OR) = 8.5, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) = 21.9-37.5, p < 0.005), age (OR (per year) = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.03-1.18, p < 0.03) and lower than 12 g/dL hemoglobin concentration (OR = 18.5, 95% CI = 4.2-80.4, p < 0.001). Troponin I (TNI) levels and hospitalization were not related independently to mortality when other clinical factors were considered. Hospitalization of patients with chest pain who were not diagnosed with cardiac emergencies is not related with better survival than of those discharged home from the ED. The 60-day mortality is very low and occurs in older patients with numerous comorbidities. In multivariate analysis, survival of the 1-year period depends on the patient's age, hemoglobin levels and D-dimer levels. Risk of death in patients admitted to the ED due to chest pain in whom the cause of the chest pain was not due to cardiovascular emergencies depends on the presence of old age and comorbidities.