Moroccan Economy Research Articles

Macroeconomic stability factors of the USD/MAD exchange rate in the context of an open Moroccan economy

Macroeconomic stability factors of the USD/MAD exchange rate in the context of an open Moroccan economy

XOR-analytic network process and assessing the impact of COVID-19 by sector

The consequences of any extreme event can deteriorate any system at all levels: socially, economically, and operationally. The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), provides a good example of the tremendous impact that can be produced by such extreme events. To effectively measure and mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and relaunch the Moroccan economy, policymakers need to determine which sectors have been most impacted. Due to the high level of uncertainty and complexity surrounding this health crisis, this study first develops a new technique for dealing with decision problems under uncertainty using exclusive-or (XOR) logic, called the XOR-analytic network process (XOR-ANP). Then, the proposed technique is adopted to assess the impact of COVID-19 on seven relevant sectors (tourism, transport, industrial, financial, agriculture, education, and healthcare) by considering social, operational, and economic dimensions. The key findings show that COVID-19 has a significant impact on Moroccan’s tourism, healthcare, and transport sectors, with respect to social-economic and operational dimensions by 30.99%, 21.81%, and 17.88%, respectively. These results indicate that most of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals for 2030, such as “Healthy Lives”, “Decent Work” and “Economic Growth” have been severely impacted, thus, assistance and recovery are urgently needed.

Analyzing Morocco’s Electricity Consumption Changes with an LMDI Decomposition Model: A Global and Sectoral Perspective

Over the past decade, Morocco has experienced a surge in electricity demand, driven by economic growth and population expansion. This study aims to delve into the factors influencing electricity consumption in Morocco from 2000 to 2020, examining both the overall national trends and sector-specific dynamics. Indeed, we employ the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) to assess changes in electricity consumption, considering various components like electricity's share, energy intensity, economic structure, economic activity, and population. At the national level, our findings indicate that economic growth has been the primary driver, contributing 66.22% to the total change in electricity consumption, followed by electricity's share effect (39.15%), population scale (29.44%), and the sectorial structure effect (10.85%). Conversely, energy intensity exhibited a declining trend, acting as a restraining factor. Among the analysed sectors, we observed distinct patterns that exhibited some degree of variation. While the agricultural, transport, and residential sectors were primarily affected by the production-per-capita effect, the industrial and commercial sectors were mainly influenced by the intensity effect. The results mentioned above highlight the significance of recent efforts to improve energy efficiency within the Moroccan economy. They also emphasize the necessity of further developing these strategies and introducing novel approaches to rationalize electricity consumption.

Essays on the measurement of pressure on the foreign exchange market in Morocco

This article aims to measure the pressure on the Moroccan foreign exchange market through the EMPI index. It was found that no crisis was signaled by this index during the years 2018 and 2019, which means that the policy of gradual flexibility of the exchange rate regime, which entered into force in January 2018, played a key role in this sense. Consequently, this reform would undoubtedly have reduced the pressure on the exchange rate by making the Moroccan economy more resilient and less vulnerable to exogenous shocks. Thus, 8 periods of crisis were identified with significantly high probabilities. Among these 8 periods, we can distinguish 3 periods which have been planned with more intensity, in particular in the second half of 2008, in the first half of 2012 and 2017.

Analysis of the possibility of moving to a new stage in the process of flexibilization of the exchange rate regime in Morocco

Given the profound structural changes in the national economy and its increasingly increased openness to the outside world, the transition to a more flexible exchange rate regime constitutes a fundamental reform in order to strengthen the competitiveness of the economy. its resilience to exogenous shocks and the level of its potential growth. However, the transition to more flexibility is not without risk, it would be accompanied by massive inflows of foreign capital motivated mainly by expectations of appreciation of the national currency and the interest rate differential, which will result in excess bank liquidity and excessive growth of reserves causing greater inflationary pressures and aggravation of financial fragilities and exchange rate risk. The objective of this article is therefore to question the capacity of the Moroccan economy through its macroeconomic fundamentals, its financial markets and its institutions, to support the transition to a new stage in the process of flexibilization of the exchange rate regime. The results show that this transition still has to wait, the ground needs to be further prepared.

ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF TRADE OPENNESS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: THE CASE OF MOROCCO

The relationship between openness to international trade and economic growth has been a subject of perennial controversy. This has paved the way for various theoretical and empirical investigations which has yielded inconclusive results, particularly in the case of developing countries. As a good case in point, the Moroccan economy has been subjected to a thorough analysis in order to determine and evaluate the impact of trade openness on economic growth covering the period from 1980 to 2019. To this end, the methodology adopted consists of a complementary approach of statistical and econometric tests using the ARDL bounds test of cointegration and the Toda-Yamamoto causality test. The results have shown that Morocco's openness to international trade positively impacts economic growth in the short term. Yet, it produces adverse effects in the long term, especially with the presence of bidirectional causal relationship between the two variables– i.e economic growth and international trade.

A Contribution to the Empirics of Total Factor Productivity’s Theory Based on a CES Production Function-Case of Moroccan Economy

Some propositions related to about growth theory are not valid for all production functions. This is the case for the estimation of total factor productivity based on the growth accounting’s approach which is easily verified with a Cobb-Douglas production function, but difficult to obtain with a CES production function. In this paper, we will try to do that estimation using Moroccan data.

A Contribution to the Empirics of Total Factor Productivity's Theory Based on a CES Production Function-Case of Moroccan Economy

A Contribution to the Empirics of Total Factor Productivity's Theory Based on a CES Production Function-Case of Moroccan Economy

Crisis management in the time of COVID-19: Zoom on its impact on the Moroccan economy and the general government budget (What happened, what was done and what's to be done)

Crisis management in the time of COVID-19: Zoom on its impact on the Moroccan economy and the general government budget (What happened, what was done and what's to be done)

An Attempt of Determining Some Characteristics of the Moroccan Productive System

The purpose of this paper is to determine some characteristics of the production system of the Moroccan economy for a single product (GDP) with annual data from 1999 to 2019. Then, we try to estimate the TFP from a translog production function to compare it with that corresponding to a Cobb-Douglas production function, if possible. The results obtained show the difficulties encountered in these estimations, particularly the multicollinearity between the explanatory variables.

The maritime medicine in Morocco: reality and future prospects

INTRODUCTION: The maritime sector in Morocco constitutes an important economic and social lever of the country, in particular with the two maritime facades of the country. If the fishing sector is classically the dominant part of this system, the change experienced by the Moroccan economy over the past two decades and the development of the port infrastructure of the merchant marine have allowed the latter to regain its importance. This development of the marine sector has repercussions on seamen and calls into question the importance of the social issue in this area, particularly in relation to the medical care of this population.OBJECTIVES: To research the scope of medical care issues related to merchant marine workers.MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study was based on the collection of data: legislative texts on occupational health and safety; statistical data from administrations (the Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Marine Fisheries), the General Medical Council of Morocco, scientific societies and associations for occupational health and marine medicine. The analysis included socio-demographic and professional characteristics, training, evaluation of activities, limitations in its implementation and priority recommendations for improving the situation.RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Morocco’s health system includes two areas: the commercial and fishing sectors. The study showed that there are no specialized medical centers in any of the sectors, and medical care for this population is at a low level. There is no Moroccan telemedicine system. Currently, Morocco has already defined a legal framework for this practice.CONCLUSION: This article sheds light on the health system of seamen in Morocco while highlighting its strengths and weaknesses as well as avenues for reflection for the improvement of existing anomalies.

Effects of Exchange Rate on Unemployment in Morocco Economy

Given the high and persistent unemployment rates in Morocco, this paper investigates the effects of real effective exchange rates and other macroeconomic variables on unemployment in Morocco for the period 1991 to 2016. The ARDL results show that the exchange rate explains the largest proportion of variation in unemployment. Both depreciation in the Moroccan dirham and increase in inflation generate higher unemployment rates in Morocco in the long run. Money growth and GDP have negative relationships with unemployment, in the long run, indicating both variables' important roles in reducing unemployment rates. The study recommends that Morocco design an exchange rate policy and trading reform programs to maintain the strong real value of the Moroccan dirham. Moroccan authority needs to keep inflation under control and adopt policies that promote higher money growth to encourage investment and generate higher GDP growth to reduce unemployment rates in the Moroccan economy.

The Moroccan Economy: In Search of a Development Path

The Moroccan Economy: In Search of a Development Path

Economic growth and challenges in achieving NDC targets: A Moroccan perspective

Ensuring a sustainable economic growth along with minimal environmental impacts is a common challenge to both developing and advanced countries. It is even more challenging for developing countries to achieve such a balance because of social, financial and political pressures. We use Morocco as a case study to, quantitatively, assess the compatibility of the Moroccan future economic growth policies and its commitments, as per the Paris Agreement, to reduce CO2 emissions. Morocco has submitted its updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) to UNFCCC on 22nd June 2021. Meanwhile, the New Development Model (NDM) report published on April 2021, presents an official vision on the Moroccan economy and society by 2035, including different development metrics targets such as the doubling the GDP per capita by 2035. The main purpose of the article is to assess the compatibility of the NDM growth targets with the NDC commitments.

Optimization of equity allocations of institutional investors: study of Moroccan case

Institutional investors normally define the market segments that present more opportunities for profitability based on their commitments, their financial and accounting situations and the regulations that govern the structure of their investments in equities, bonds, real estate and infrastructure. Their investment strategies consist of defining the allocation of their assets after having fixed the proportion to be invested in each segment. We will try through this work to estimate and optimize the parts of assets invested in shares of pension funds, insurance companies and UCITS (Undertakings for Collective Investments in Transferable Securities), according to their degree of integration into the Moroccan economy, weight of their assets in market capitalization and by the heterogeneity that characterizes their investment decisions on the capital market. Panel data are well suited to our analysis in the sense that they allow us to measure the impact of several actions (stimuli), alone or simultaneously, and the synergies (interactions) of data, which are numerous on investors and on market indicators on the financial market. The results obtained illustrate that the weight of equity investments in portfolios under management of institutional investors are impacted by the share of investors' equity portfolio in market capitalization and by the total assets of this category of investors compared to Morocco's GDP (Gross domestic product).

Assessing the Effects of Real Exchange Rate Depreciation on the Moroccan Economy: Evidence based on SVAR Approach with Sign Restrictions

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the dynamic response of a small subset of variables to exchange rate shocks by using a new method based on a set of theory-consistent sign restrictions for the purpose of identifying shocks over time (1995Q1–2019Q1) in the Moroccan economy. It is important to note that the current account presents the so-called “J-curve” phenomenon. Additionally, Morocco entered into a period of deeper and longer recession and higher inflation following the dirham’s depreciation. Following a real depreciation, the output has little effect on improving the current account balance. Our results suggest that the monetary authorities reacted immediately to exchange rate shocks by raising their interest rates to prevent the economy from falling into deflation.

Macroeconomic impacts of fiscal shocks on the Moroccan economy: a disaggregated SVAR analysis

PurposeThe present paper aims to evaluate the structural impact of exogenously induced fiscal shocks on the Moroccan economy. This entails an analysis of the effect on the GDP of COVID-19-induced fiscal shocks manifesting in terms of budgetary revenues and expenditures. A key aspect of this analysis addresses the size of the tax and fiscal multipliers.Design/methodology/approachThe study examines the structural relationship between five variables during the period between Q1 2009 and Q2 2020 using an SVAR approach that allows for a dynamic interaction between ordinary expenditures and revenues on a quarterly basis.FindingsPositive structural shocks on public spending are likely to negatively impact economic growth. Negative economic growth, in turn, will damage price levels and interest rates, mainly over the long term. However, public-revenue-multiplier-associated shocks exceed these price- and interest-rate multiplier-associated shocks. Indeed, a structural shock to ordinary revenues can have a positive but insignificant impact on the GDP stemming from the ensuing decrease in the government budget deficit that proceeds from the increase in government revenues.Originality/valueThis is one of the first studies in the Moroccan context to assess the impact of the current worldwide pandemic on public finances. In addition, this study highlights the importance of boosting economic recovery through public spending.

On Using Artificial Intelligence and the Internet of Things for Crop Disease Detection: A Contemporary Survey

The agricultural sector remains a key contributor to the Moroccan economy, representing about 15% of gross domestic product (GDP). Disease attacks are constant threats to agriculture and cause heavy losses in the country’s economy. Therefore, early detection can mitigate the severity of diseases and protect crops. However, manual disease identification is both time-consuming and error prone, and requires a thorough knowledge of plant pathogens. Instead, automated methods save both time and effort. This paper presents a contemporary overview of research undertaken over the past decade in the field of disease identification of different crops using machine learning, deep learning, image processing techniques, the Internet of Things, and hyperspectral image analysis. Additionally, a comparative study of several techniques applied to crop disease detection was carried out. Furthermore, this paper discusses the different challenges to be overcome and possible solutions. Then, several suggestions to address these challenges are provided. Finally, this research provides a future perspective that promises to be a highly useful and valuable resource for researchers working in the field of crop disease detection.

Exploring the Impact of Inflation and External Debt on Economic Growth in Morocco: An Empirical Investigation with an ARDL Approach

This article seeks to empirically assess the effect of inflation and external debt on economic growth in Morocco. The estimates cover the period from 1985 to 2019. The results from the ARDL model show that external debt negatively influences the country's growth in the short and long terms. Due to its direct effect, inflation slows down economic activity and leads to lower GDP growth. The econometric estimate indicates that the low level of inflation leads to difficulties in repaying debt and, consequently, reduced economic growth. Low inflation also hurts economic competitiveness among small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Although the inflation rate is lower than the interest rates, it reduces the profit margins of companies and leads to lower investment. The negative effect on economic competitiveness leads to decreased sectoral added value, reducing future economic growth rates. Based on the results, two main measures are proposed to mitigate the negative effect of inflation and debt on economic growth. First, we must develop better institutional and governance quality. The latter allows debt funds to be well spent on non-rent-producing sectors capable of reviving the Moroccan economy. Second, we have to look for good inflation, in other words, inflation that stimulates economic activity without creating economic distortions.

The Impact of ERP’s Implementation on Supply Chain Management’s Performance: Case Study of a Moroccan Farm Group

With the digitization of the economy, number of disciplines have witnesses significant evolution, including Enterprise Resource Planning systems and Supply Chain Management. However, prior research mainly focuses on the question of ERP and/or SCM in industrial firms. Therefore, this paper aims to explore the research field linking ERP systems and SCM performance in the agricultural sector, as to answer the following research problem: to what extent does ERP’s implementation affect the performance of SCM within farm businesses? Taking the Moroccan context into account, the importance of studying the case of farm businesses is highlighted. They play a significant role in the revival of the Moroccan economy, despite the various complications to which they are confronted. The article consists of a case study research and presents results from 10 semi-structured interviews carried out within a Moroccan farm group, which implemented an ERP system back in 2018. The variation of SCM performance indicators was analyzed three years post go-live. Findings from this study show that ERP’s implementation has a positive impact on the farm group’s supply chain management. In fact, the examined supply chain metrics: customer service (CS), financial perspective (FP), innovation & learning (IL), internal business (IB) and supplier performance (SP), all achieved medium performance improvement by 2020. Considering the small sample size as well as non-existent literature findings, further research should extend the sample set.