Monsoon Research Articles

Hysteresis in seasonal land-atmospheric interactions over India and its characteristics across croplands and forests

Abstract Satellite-derived Vegetation Optical Depth and Soil Moisture (SM) data reveal the critical role of the soil-vegetation continuum in storing rainwater during the Indian Summer Monsoon and supporting evapotranspiration (ET) during the dry non-monsoon season. During the non-monsoon drier period, the climatologically estimated spatial mean of ET exceeds precipitation input, a phenomenon known as the Soil-Vegetation Capacitor (SVC) effect, which is pivotal in maintaining ecosystem productivity. Notably, our analysis reveals significant variations in the capacitor period between croplands and forests, with croplands exhibiting a ~77 days longer due to dual crop seasons influenced by regional precipitation. The well-recognized hysteresis curves, observed in magnetization and soil-water characteristic curves (SWCC), highlight phenomena where a system's state is influenced by its historical inputs or states and are integral to our findings. We report a previously undocumented seasonal hysteresis in the relationship between the evaporative fraction (EVF) and SM for Indian croplands and forests. We further found that the croplands SM-EVF relation exhibits a reversal in hysteresis in the case of root-zone SM. The surface SM-EVF hysteresis is not present in forests with large root depths and reduced soil evaporation due to high canopy shading, and yet it is present for the root-zone SM. With its reversal for croplands, the newly found hysteresis must be addressed in redefining the critical SM threshold to demarcate the energy and water-limiting regimes. It should be incorporated in the land surface modeling parameterization. Additionally, we observed hysteresis in the soil moisture-gross primary productivity (SM-GPP) relationship across both land covers and soil profiles (surface and root-zone), underscoring the need to investigate such processes to consider their dynamics in future ecological and hydrological models.

Maritime Continent salinity as a new predictor for South Asian summer monsoon rainfall

Maritime Continent salinity as a new predictor for South Asian summer monsoon rainfall

Seesaw between the westerlies and Asian monsoon regulates vegetation and climate during the last deglaciation in southern Northeast China

The history and drivers of hydroclimate changes during the last deglaciation in Northeast China remain contentious. We present a high-resolution record of vegetation and climate changes from Lake Buridun in southern Northeast China (SNEC), spanning the last ∼16 kyr. Multi-proxy reconstruction reveals a slight increase in precipitation prior to the end of Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1) and forest development during the middle Bølling warming, indicating that hydrothermal conditions regulated regional vegetation. Significant fluctuations in all millennial-scale climatic events underscore the high sensitivity of SNEC to climate change. Our record aligns with high-resolution data from both SNEC and North China, showing a persistent wetting trend during the Bølling-Allerød period. This trend coincides with changes in East Asian summer monsoon intensity and Indo-Pacific warm pool heat content but contrasts with the Greenland temperature records. During the HS1 and Younger Dryas, records show a cold-dry mode in SNEC, contrasting with the cold-wet pattern in central-eastern China caused by the prolonged Meiyu season, which corresponds to the retreat of the monsoon precipitation belt and an enhanced westerly jet. Our data, along with more comprehensive records from broader regions, suggest that hydroclimate in SNEC was dominated by the low-latitude monsoon and the high-latitude westerlies during the warm and cold phases of the last deglaciation, exhibiting a seesaw-like interaction.

Seasonal variation of coastal currents and residual currents in the CAT BA – HA long coastal area (VIET NAM): Results of coherens model

The COHERENS model is used to investigate the temporal and spatial variation of the coastal currents in 2021 at the Cat Ba - Ha Long, northern Vietnam. The findings indicate that tidal oscillation has a notable impact on the current fields in short-term variations (hours to days). Meanwhile, the wind field and river discharge are the decisive factors affecting the seasonal variation of the current fields in Cat Ba - Ha Long coastal area. Furthermore, the characteristics of residual currents are significantly affected by river discharges and wind patterns, which vary across different months and seasons. During the southwest monsoon season (May to August), the residual currents have a prevailing direction towards the sea, from the west and south-southwest towards the east and north-northeast, reaching maximum speeds of approximately 0.1–0.15 m/s. Conversely, in the transitional and northeast monsoon seasons, the directions of residual currents are from the east-northeast to the west-southwest, with peak speed up to 0.2–0.25 m/s. Notably, the residual currents in the bottom and surface layers in the eastern-southwestern area of Cat Ba Island and the north of Ha Long Bay are in opposite directions.

Microplastic abundance, characteristics, and heavy metal contamination in coastal environments of Western Sri Lanka

This study was conducted to assess the abundance of microplastics and associated metal contamination at selected beaches in the Western Province of Sri Lanka. Beach sand samples were collected from four beaches: Modera, Negombo, Mount Lavinia, and Panadura. Microplastics were extracted from dried sand samples using a saturated NaCl solution, followed by sieving. Particles were identified using Fourier Transform InfraRed Spectrophotometer, and associated heavy metals; Cr, Pb, Cu, Zn, and Ni were subjected to acid digestion for 24 h before analysis using Microwave Plasma Atomic Emission Spectrometry. More than half of the extracted plastics (56.31%) were identified as microplastics. The average microplastic abundance in beach sand samples ranged from 42.0 to 91.3 items/kg. The sand collected at Mount Lavinia exhibited the lowest sbundance, whereas those from Panadura beach revealed the highest. Hydrodynamic factors like ocean currents, wave patterns, associated with Southwest monsoon period, and human activities may have caused the variability in microplastic abundances and metal contamination. The majority of the microplastics (52.29%) were polyethylene, followed by polypropylene (35.18%), resembling the records of the most common plastic waste types in the country. Most of the microplastics were found to be fragments (87.95%), while white being the prominent color (53.49%). The toxic trace element concentration ranged from 5.0 × 10−3 to 1.8 × 102 μg/g in beaches. This study establishes a baseline for the west coastline prior to the X-press Pearl Ship Disaster in 2021. Future studies are encouraged to assess the beach microplastic pollution across the- Sri Lankan coastline.

Evaluation of gridded precipitation datasets in mountainous terrains of Northwestern Mexico

Study regionThe complex mountainous terrains of the Sierra Madre Occidental in northwestern Mexico. Study focusAcquiring high-resolution precipitation data in regions with limited conventional rain gauge coverage poses significant challenges. Gridded precipitation (GP) datasets, including gauge-based, satellite, and reanalysis products, provide a potential solution, but their reliability in areas with complex terrain and intricate precipitation patterns remains uncertain. This study comprehensively evaluates the performance of four GP datasets—AORC, CHIRPS, Daymet, and ERA5—in estimating precipitation. The evaluation was conducted at a daily, monthly, and seasonal timescale, further analyzing extreme precipitation, the influence of elevation, and spatial averaging across hydrologic basins, using as reference the NERN rain gauge data from 2002 to 2004. New hydrological insights for the regionResults indicate that Daymet and AORC are the most accurate GP datasets for daily and monthly timescales, respectively. All datasets improve in accuracy over longer timescales but face challenges during the wet summer monsoon months and extreme events, with Daymet performing relatively better. Terrain elevation had a minimal impact on overall dataset accuracy, though a slight improvement in precipitation detection was noted as elevation increased. This work provides valuable insights into the strengths and limitations of GP datasets in regions with complex terrain and orographically-forced convective precipitation, offering practical outcomes for climate and hydrologic studies in similar regions.

Local and Remote Effects of the Sub‐Grid Turbulent Orographic Form Drag on the Summer Monsoon Precipitation Over Eastern China

AbstractThe sub‐grid turbulent orographic form drag (STOFD) significantly affects the regional circulation and precipitation. This study explores the local and remote effects of the STOFD on the summer monsoon precipitation across Eastern China using the Regional Climate Model Version 4 adopting a STOFD scheme. Results indicate that the local and remote effects of the STOFD primarily influence the improvement of summer precipitation simulation in the Southeastern and Northern China, respectively. The local effects of the STOFD can lead to 37.1% and 10.7% reduction of the absolute error and the root mean square error (RMSE) of simulated summer precipitation in the Southeastern China with complex sub‐grid terrains. The remote effects of the STOFD within the Indochina Peninsula and Yunnan‐Guizhou Plateau result in the absolute error and RMSE of simulated summer precipitation in the Northern China with mild sub‐grid terrain decreased by 90.1% and 32.9%, respectively. Moreover, the remote effects of the STOFD within the Tianshan Mountains and Tibetan Plateau can clearly improve the simulated precipitation in both the Southeastern and Northern China. The disturbances generated by the local effects of the STOFD are more locally concentrated than those produced by the STOFD remote effects, leading to a more significant improvement of precipitation simulation in the Southeastern China. While the disturbances resulted from the remote effects of the STOFD affect the summer precipitation in both the Southeastern and Northern China obviously. This study highlights the significance of the remote effects of the STOFD in improving the summer precipitation simulation in Eastern China.

Interannual Covariation of the North American and African Summer Monsoons

ABSTRACTThe North American summer monsoon (NASM) and the North African summer monsoon (NAFSM) are two vital subsystems of the global monsoon. To date, the potential inter‐monsoon relationship between the NASM and NAFSM has not been fully understood. To fill this gap, we investigate the NASM–NAFSM relationship on the interannual timescale during the period of 1979–2022. Based on statistical methods (including correlation, empirical orthogonal function and cross wavelet analyses), we identify a noteworthy interannual covariation of the NASM and NAFSM. This observed NASM–NAFSM covariation can be explained by atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical central‐eastern Pacific and tropical Atlantic, suggesting the critical roles of tropical Pacific–Atlantic SST anomalies in shaping the NASM–NAFSM covariation. The results of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models indicate that a model's ability to simulate the NASM–NAFSM covariation tends to be related to its ability to reproduce the modulating effects of the tropical Pacific–Atlantic SST anomalies. These results have potential implications for seasonal forecasts of the NASM and NAFSM variations, suggesting that the NASM and NAFSM can be considered simultaneously in climate predictions.

Climate and natural risks of the settlement of Yuzhno-Ussuriysk fortress area

The paleogeographic study of one of the large Medieval settlements of the Jin Empire (1115–1234) in the Primorye was carried out in order to analyze the minor climatic rhythm during the settlement of a large river valley. New data on the chronology of the settlement were obtained using radiocarbon dating of charcoal and tephrostratigraphy. It was established that the territory began to be developed by the Krounovskaya culture (4th century BC to the 3rd century AD) under relatively dry conditions associated with a decrease in the summer monsoon intensity. In the 10th century the humidity increased sharply. The peak of warming occurred in the 11th century. At this time Medieval settlement appeared here, that existed before the construction of the fortress. The layers of this settlement lie under the ramparts. The study of pollen and diatoms in the cultural layers has allowed us to determine the characteristics of the environment during the Jurchen period (12th–13th centuries). Radiocarbon dating of the humus shows that the cultural layers contain redeposited organogenic material, which provides information on the pre-Jurchen environment. It has been established that significant changes in the natural steppe landscapes occurred in the early Middle Ages. Pollen data show signs of agriculture and other economic activities, including the plants’ cultivation, the development of ruderal plants and apophytes, as well as spores of pathogenic fungi. During the development of the territory in the Middle Ages, the main risks were associated with severe floods. Layers of loams found among the cultural layers indicate the repeated flooding of the fortress. Bioindicators of severe floods are allochthonous diatoms, represented by species that lived in the aquatic environment.

Regional differences in cloud characteristics at different depth, intensity and horizontal scale over South Asia during Indian summer monsoon using CloudSat and reanalysis data

Regional differences in cloud characteristics at different depth, intensity and horizontal scale over South Asia during Indian summer monsoon using CloudSat and reanalysis data

Flash Drought Intensification due to Enhanced Land–Atmospheric Coupling in India

Abstract Land–atmospheric feedback influences the occurrence and severity of flash droughts. However, the observed and projected changes in flash droughts and associated land–atmospheric coupling have not been examined over India. Moreover, the causes of the rapid depletion of soil moisture during flash droughts are not well known. We identify major flash droughts and associated soil moisture–vapor pressure deficit (SM–VPD) coupling in India using ERA5 and simulations from global climate models (CMIP6-GCMs). The summer monsoon season (June–September) witnesses more than 60% of the flash drought events and a relatively higher rate of flash drought development. The flash drought frequency has mainly decreased during India’s observed climate (1980–2019), which is projected to decline further in the future warming climate. On the other hand, the flash drought development rate has significantly increased during the observed period, which is projected to enhance further under the warming climate. SM–VPD coupling during the flash drought onset-development phase is considerably higher (threefold to fivefold) than during the normal condition (in the absence of flash drought). The high (low) SM–VPD coupling explains the faster (slower) flash drought development rate in the observed and future warming climate. The strength of SM–VPD coupling has increased in the recent period and is projected to increase further in the future warming climate. The increased SM–VPD coupling can intensify future flash droughts in India, especially during the summer monsoon season, with considerable implications for agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems. Significance Statement This study aims to understand better the role of land–atmospheric coupling in explaining flash drought characteristics (frequency and development rate) in India. Strong land–atmospheric (SM–VPD) feedback might influence the regional weather patterns during flash drought, which often negatively impacts humans and the ecosystem. We explain the causes and drivers of increasing (decreasing) flash drought development rate (frequency) in India. The long-term change in SM–VPD coupling drives the frequency of flash drought, whereas an anomalous instantaneous change in coupling controls the flash drought development rate. More intense flash droughts contributed by the increased land–atmospheric coupling are projected in the future. Predicting the SM–VPD coupling metric can facilitate more time for preparedness, resulting in minimizing the flash drought impacts.

On the present and future changes in Indian summer monsoon precipitation characteristics under different SSP scenarios from CMIP6 models

AbstractMonsoons are a vital part of the agriculture and economy of India which most of its population rely on for their livelihoods. It still is not clear how climate change will impact precipitation events over India due to the complexity of accurately modelling precipitation. Using twelve Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Six (CMIP6) models, we compared their performance to observed data taken from CRU as well as looking at the future changes in precipitation until the end of the twenty first century for the six precipitation homogenous regions over India. The individual models showed varying degrees of wet and dry biases and the ensemble mean of these models showed relatively lesser bias and improved spatial correlation. Out of 12 models, NorESM and MIROC6 models outperform other models in terms of capturing the spatial variability of precipitation over the Indian region. It is also found that due to lesser moisture transport from the adjoining seas represented through vertically integrated moisture transport (VIMT) analysis, there is consistent dry bias across the models. Further a comprehensive analysis of model performance across six homogeneous precipitation regions indicates that NorESM demonstrates better performance in the CNE and HR regions, EC-Earth excels in the PR, WC, and NE regions, while CMCC shows better performance specifically in the NW region compared to other models. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were used for future projections and a slight increase in June, July, August, and September (JJAS) precipitation until the end of the century with SSP5-8.5 showing the largest increase. We found an increase in precipitation of 0.49, 0.74 and 1.4 mm/day under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 in the far future. The northeast region was shown to receive the largest increase in precipitation (2.9 mm/day) compared to other precipitation homogenous regions and northwest will experience largest shift in precipitation. Interestingly, the number of wet days is expected to increase in the northwest region implying more VIMT towards the region. Our results indicate that monsoon precipitation extremes across all the homogenous regions will increase into the future with a higher severity under fossil-fuelled development, although the models still show large biases lowering confidence in our results.

A Regional Paleoclimate Record of the Tropical Aeolian Sands during the Last Deglaciation in Hainan, China

The KLD segment of the Kenweiyuan section in Wenchang, Hainan, China is a set of aeolian sand deposits of the Last Deglaciation. The chemical element and heavy mineral analysis performed in this study reveals the chemical index of alteration (CIA) in the segment to be as high as 93–95, with all the heavy minerals identified as stable and extremely stable making up 38–45% of the total. Furthermore, the zircon, tourmaline, and rutile content (ZTR index) of the segment is determined to range between 48–71. The (Al2O3 + TOFE)/SiO2 ratios display obvious fluctuations from old to new strata in the segment, with the low values corresponding to Heinrich event (H1), Dansgaard-Oeschager (D-O), and Younger Dryas (YD) and the high values corresponding to Bølling and Allerød. Our study suggests that these fluctuations are attributed to the alternation of the East Asian winter and summer monsoons. Hainan Island is also impacted by the surface ocean climate of the South China Sea, and characteristics of the KLD segment may be connected to the climate changes in the North Atlantic related to the winter monsoon season or westerlies. Furthermore, the segment presents a clear response to millennium-scale climate changes during the Last Deglaciation on Hainan Island. Based on the high CIA values in the KLD segment, and particularly due to the observed stable detrital minerals, the ratios can be linked to the overall tropical climate, indicating a relatively warm tropical climate environment in the Last Deglaciation in Hainan. The high CIA values also reveal the cause of aeolian sand formation under the tropical environmental conditions in the low latitude region of China in the Late Quaternary.

Contrasting influence of the 1997 and 2015 El Niño on the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Role of the Southern Hemisphere

This study provides comprehensive analysis on the contrasting effects caused by the 1997 and 2015 historical El Niño events linked with the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall. The presence of strong southeast-northwest oriented cold Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies during 1997, that spatially extended from southwest Pacific to Southeast Indian Ocean (SEIO) in comparison to the 2015 event is the robust feature. Evidently, these anomalies are closely related to interaction between cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation over South Pacific Convergence Zone (south Australia). During 2015, the conjunction of Modoki II and classical El Niño triggered an asymmetrical equatorial circulation throughout the Indo-western Pacific (IWP) and thereby stimulated the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) through troposphere and stratospheric pathway mechanism. In addition, in 2015, SAM impacted the Indian Ocean, which intern affected ISM rainfall. Positive SAM associated with westward shift of anticyclone over south of Australia alters the circulation by inducing westerly winds over the South Indian Ocean, thereby suppressing Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and inducing drought conditions over India during 2015. Moreover, the AUS index, an indicator for IOD strength in boreal summer, is a bridging factor prevalent over mid-latitude regions in the southern hemisphere. Results from this study indicate the complex interaction of southern hemisphere atmospheric flow and its role in modulating the Indian Ocean region thereby ISM rainfall. A better understanding of these underlying mechanism can significantly enhance the predictive skills and projections of monsoon variability and extremes.

Reconstruction of temperature and hydroclimate in Serling Co (Central Tibet) since the last deglaciation

Understanding the past climatic conditions and their possible driving mechanism can contribute to better constrain future climate projection, and to provide potential insights into the disputed Holocene temperature variations. In this study, we quantitatively reconstruct the mean annual air temperature (MAAT) of Serling Co since 17.3 cal kyr BP using a novel terrestrial thermometer (ring index of OH-GDGTs, RI-OH), and reconstructed the hydroclimatic evolutionary history in combination with n-alkanes and their associated proxies. Our temperature records indicate that Serling Co experienced a period of reduced temperatures during the Younger Dryas event, approximately 6 °C cooler than the present conditions. Subsequently, there was a rapid warming phase, leading to peak temperatures in the early Holocene, roughly 5.5 °C warmer than the modern MAAT, followed by a protracted cooling trend during the subsequent middle and late Holocene. The temperature and hydroclimate trends at Serling Co exhibit a synchronized evolutionary pattern since the last deglaciation, featuring an optimal hydrothermal combination in the early Holocene. This period witnessed the peak productivity of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, followed by a gradual decline. Summer insolation emerges as a primary controlling factor for temperature variations, with Indian Summer Monsoon intensity and internal climate system variability exerting dominance over atmospheric moisture and precipitation variations in the region.

Seasonal Surges in Bacterial Diversity along the Coastal Waters of the Eastern Arabian Sea

The upwelling phenomenon plays a vital role within marine ecosystems, transporting essential nutrients from the bottom to the surface and boosting biological productivity. However, the bacterial community structure in upwelling zones along the western coast of India (WCI) is understudied. This research systematically examines bacterial diversity across three seasons—pre-monsoon (PR), monsoon (MN), and post-monsoon (PM)—using next-generation sequencing. Our findings show distinct spatial patterns of bacterial communities in the Arabian Sea and demonstrate that ecological variations influence bacterial distribution in this dynamic environment. During MN, the bacterial community exhibited greater species diversity but lower overall abundance compared to PR and PM. Non-Metric MDS cluster analysis revealed a 78% similarity (at order level) between PR and PM, indicating that MN supports unique bacterial diversity. KEGG analysis showed significant seasonal variations in metabolic functions, with increased functional potential during MN. Additionally, Carbohydrate-Active enZymes (CAZymes) analysis revealed distinct seasonal profiles, among which the GH13 enzymes were the most prevalent glycoside hydrolases during MN, predominantly being sucrose phosphorylase and glucosidase, known for breaking down glucan deposits derived from phytoplankton. The CAZymes profiles supported taxonomic and KEGG pathway findings, reinforcing that microbial communities are seasonally distinct and functionally adapted to changing availability of nutrients.

The collapse of the Ming Dynasty actually began with the Wanli megadrought: Insights from a hydroclimate reconstruction based on tree-ring δ18O over the past 460 years

Climate change has played a pivotal role in shaping Chinese history, especially during the Ming Dynasty. Previous studies have focused primarily on the Chongzhen megadrought, which is widely considered as the primary climatic perturbation behind the demise of the Ming Dynasty. However, relatively little is known about other severe drought events and their potential impact on the dynasty collapse. Additionally, the characteristics of an exceptional climatic anomaly termed the “Late Ming Weak Monsoon Period” are unclear. In this study, we reconstructed the historical variations of Palmer Drought Severity Index for July–September based on tree-ring stable oxygen isotopes (δ18O) from 1556 CE to 2015 CE in southwest Chinese Loess Plateau. Our study reveals a significant weakening of the Asian summer monsoon between 1561 CE and 1661 CE, consistent with the Late Ming Weak Monsoon Period, and unravels its structural characteristics in detail. Our reconstruction also captures a distinct humidification trend over northwest China since the early 2000s. Notably, in addition to the well-known Chongzhen megadrought, our study records the severe Wanli megdrought (1585–1590 CE) during the late Ming Dynasty, an event that rarely featured in earlier studies, exhibiting comparable duration and severity to the Chongzhen megadrought. Further analysis indicates that Wanli megadrought may have served as an early trigger for the collapse of the Ming Dynasty. Furthermore, our analysis implicates the El Niño–Southern Oscillation as a contributing factor in both the Wanli and Chongzhen megadroughts, and thus to the ultimate collapse of the Ming Dynasty by affecting the Asian summer monsoon intensity.

Bycatch discard patterns in a tropical beach seine fishery across different monsoonal periods

ABSTRACT The beach seine fishery at Oruwella, Tangalle, Sri Lanka (6°1'51“N; 80°ˊ47'57”E) was studied for its discarded bycatch over 34 months. Fishes of the benthic family-Cynoglossidae were most frequent (40.5 %) for the whole study period while jellyfish (Aurelia sp) showed the highest catch frequency (77.2 %) during the southwest monsoon. The species composition of the bycatch (per haul) was higher during the northeast monsoon than the other two periods. Thus, monsoonal and incidental jellyfish (Aurelia sp) blooms had significant impacts on the abundance and species composition of the bycatch. The study reported 26 bycatch species where 65 % and 73% of the bycatch organism types were benthic and non-commercial species respectively. As 72.6 % of hauls had less than 20 bycatch individuals, the total bycatch abundance (per haul) was comparatively low. The study also revealed the lowest number of discarding bycatch species among other studies. Cod-end made with relatively large (>0.5cm) mesh and traditional knowledge of fishers to forecast specific commercial fish schools contributed to lowering the abundance and the bycatch species in this fishery. As alive bycatch is thrown back into the beach water, the chances of survival are likely to be increased for some bycatch individuals.

Climatic Oscillations and Dynastic Trends: A Multiproxy analysis of the past two millennia in the Indian Subcontinent

The study examines centennial-scale climatic oscillations over the past two millennia in the monsoon-dominated Indian subcontinent by multiproxy analysis of pollen along with stable carbon isotope, total organic carbon, magnetic susceptibility, and grain size from a 274 cm deep sediment profile in Sarsapukhra Lake, Varanasi, in the Central Ganga Plain (CGP) to portray vegetation changes and their impact on rise and fall of dominant dynasties. Between ∼1800 to 1600 cal yr BP, the coarser silty sand with few Poaceae and Asteraceae pollen with other proxy data, indicate that the region experienced a strong Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). Subsequently, from ∼1600 to 1350 cal yr BP, presence of mixed moist deciduous taxa such as Shorea robusta, Madhuca indica, Rubiaceae, Morus alba, Syzygium, and Moraceae indicate a moderate ISM while between 1350 to 1200 cal yr BP, the dominance of dry deciduous taxa viz. Acacia sp., Bombax ceiba, Holoptelea, Rutaceae, Madhuca indica, Mangifera indica etc. suggested weak ISM conditions. A pulsative ameliorating trend from ∼1200 to 1030 cal yr BP showed the dominance of deciduous taxa such as Holoptelea, Rutaceae, Ziziphus, Rubiaceae, Maytenus and Acanthaceae etc. indicating warm and moist climatic conditions, followed by a weak ISM until ∼900 cal yr BP and improved ISM until 620 cal yr BP. Subsequently, an improving trend in the ISM from ∼620 to 450 cal yr BP was observed, with increased dominance of wetland taxa, followed by acute dry climate beyond ∼450 cal yr BP indicating poor ISM conditions.Additionally, the alternating warm and cold episodes had a direct impact on vegetation, forcing human civilizations to migrate from their original locations and contributing to the downfall of prominent dynasties. Furthermore, this study lays the foundation for future research into issues related to vegetation change, the amount of ISM shift, and human culture−climate relationship.

Opportunities and barriers for skillful sub-seasonal prediction of East Asian summer precipitation

Abstract Accurate sub-seasonal (2-8 weeks) prediction of monsoon precipitation is crucial for mitigating flood and heatwave disasters caused by intra-seasonal variability (ISV). However, current state-of-the-art sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) models have limited prediction skills beyond one week when predicting weekly precipitation. Our findings suggest that predictability primarily arises from strong ISV events, and the prediction skills for ISV events depend on the propagation stability of preceding signals, regardless of models. This allows us to identify opportunities and barriers (OBs) within S2S models, clarifying what the models can and cannot achieve in ISV event prediction. Focusing on the complex East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), we discover that stable propagation of Eurasian and tropical atmospheric wave trains towards East Asia serves as an opportunity. This opportunity offers a one-week leading prediction skill of up to 0.85 and skillful prediction up to 13 days ahead for 43% of all ISV events. However, the Tibetan Plateau barrier highlights the limitation of EASM predictability. Identifying these OBs will help us gain confidence in making more accurate sub-seasonal prediction.