Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations Research Articles

Improved subseasonal prediction of South Asian monsoon rainfall using data-driven forecasts of oscillatory modes

Predicting the temporal and spatial patterns of South Asian monsoon rainfall within a season is of critical importance due to its impact on agriculture, water availability, and flooding. The monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO) is a robust northward-propagating mode that determines the active and break phases of the monsoon and much of the regional distribution of rainfall. However, dynamical atmospheric forecast models predict this mode poorly. Data-driven methods for MISO prediction have shown more skill, but only predict the portion of the rainfall corresponding to MISO rather than the full rainfall signal. Here, we combine state-of-the-art ensemble precipitation forecasts from a high-resolution atmospheric model with data-driven forecasts of MISO. The ensemble members of the detailed atmospheric model are projected onto a lower-dimensional subspace corresponding to the MISO dynamics and are then weighted according to their distance from the data-driven MISO forecast in this subspace. We thereby achieve improvements in rainfall forecasts over India, as well as the broader monsoon region, at 10- to 30-d lead times, an interval that is generally considered to be a predictability gap. The temporal correlation of rainfall forecasts is improved by up to 0.28 in this time range. Our results demonstrate the potential of leveraging the predictability of intraseasonal oscillations to improve extended-range forecasts; more generally, they point toward a future of combining dynamical and data-driven forecasts for Earth system prediction.

Modulations of the South China Sea Ocean Circulation by the Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillation Inferred from Satellite Observations

The South China Sea (SCS) displays remarkable responses and feedback to the summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (ISO). This study investigates how the SCS summer ocean circulation responds to the monsoon ISO based on weekly satellite data. In summer, the largest amplitudes for intraseasonal (30–90 days) sea surface height variations in the SCS occur around the northeastward offshore current off southeast Vietnam between a north–south eddy dipole. Our results show that such strong intraseasonal sea surface height variations are mainly caused by the alternate enhancement of the two eddies of the eddy dipole. Specifically, in response to the intraseasonal intensification of southwesterly winds, the northern cyclonic eddy of the eddy dipole strengthens within 1–2 weeks, and its southern boundary tends to be more southerly. Afterwards, as the wind-driven southern anticyclonic gyre spins up, the southern anticyclonic eddy gradually intensifies and expands its northern boundary northward, while the northern cyclonic eddy weakens and retreats northward. Besides the local wind forcing, westward propagations of the eastern boundary-originated sea surface height anomalies, which exhibit latitude-dependent features that are consistent with the linear Rossby wave theory, play an important role in ocean dynamical adjustments to the monsoon ISO, especially in the southern SCS. Case studies further confirm our findings and indicate that understanding this wind-driven process makes the ocean more predictable on short-term timescales.

Aircraft observations in a tropical supercluster over the equatorial Indian Ocean during MISO-BOB field campaign

The Monsoon Intra-Seasonal Oscillations in the Bay of Bengal (MISO-BOB) field campaign was conducted in the Indian Ocean during the 2018 and 2019 summer monsoon seasons. WC-130J aircraft of the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron of the US Air Force participated in the campaign in June 2018. The dropsonde observations across a tropical supercluster showed zonal wind variations in association with the structure of the convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW). Within the supercluster, easterlies (westerlies) were observed in the upper (lower) troposphere; this transformation occurred just below the 0∘\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$^{\\circ }$$\\end{document} C level. The cold pool had an easterly component throughout, and it was coldest (by 2.5∘\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$^{\\circ }$$\\end{document} C) at the center of the supercluster, deepest (∼\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\sim$$\\end{document}1000m\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$1000\\,\\hbox {m}$$\\end{document}) at its rear/western end, and shallowest (∼\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\sim$$\\end{document} 300 m) at the front/eastern end. The level of free convection (LFC) at the front end was at 897m\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$897\\,\\hbox {m}$$\\end{document} altitude. At the eastern flank of the supercluster, zonal convergence in the lower troposphere occurred between 500-1500 m levels above the surface between the westerlies within the supercluster and opposing ambient easterlies. Thus, the uplifting of conditionally unstable air parcels above LFC to the east of the supercluster was likely to occur due to this convergence rather than the cold pool influence. Conversely, the western flank of the supercluster had low-level zonal divergence. These observations support the notion of ‘self-similarity’ among the mesoscale convective systems and large-scale waves.

Importance of Seasonally Evolving Near‐Surface Salinity Stratification on Mixed Layer Heat Budget During Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillation in the Northern Bay of Bengal in 2019

AbstractThe discharge of freshwater from major rivers into the northern Bay of Bengal (BoB) increases dramatically during the summer monsoon season, reaching a peak in August–September, and there is a corresponding increase in the vertical salinity gradient in the upper ocean. Here we study the impact of seasonally evolving near‐surface salinity stratification on the response of ocean mixed layer temperature (MLT) to Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations (MISO), using accurate surface fluxes and high vertical resolution (∼2 m) hydrographic measurements from a mooring in the northern BoB (17.8°N, 89.5°E) during June–September 2019. Prominent MLT warming and cooling with a range of 1.5°C is observed between suppressed (clear skies, calm winds) and active (cloudy, windy) phases of MISO convection. However, the intraseasonal MLT response to the active phase of a late‐season MISO event is minimal compared to MISO events in early summer. We infer this is primarily due to the much smaller contribution from oceanic vertical processes (∼6 Wm−2) in late summer 2019, compared to their role in early summer (−15 to −55 Wm−2). During the active phase of the MISO event of late summer 2019, the combined effect of reduced entrainment and weak vertical temperature gradients associated with a barrier layer inhibits near‐surface cooling. Conversely, the near‐surface salinity stratification and the barrier layer are weak during MISO events in the early summer of 2019—these hydrographic conditions lead to enhanced MLT cooling in response to MISO, apparently through a freer turbulent exchange of cool thermocline water with the surface layer.

Influence of boreal summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations on the occurrences of Marine Heatwave events over the North Bay of Bengal

Influence of boreal summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations on the occurrences of Marine Heatwave events over the North Bay of Bengal

Improving the subseasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon in a climate model

AbstractMany global climate models, including the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), have a biased representation of subseasonal modes of variability of the Indian summer monsoon. For instance, they simulate a weaker summer mean monsoon low‐pressure systems (LPS) climatology, faster than observed northward propagation of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs), and a systematic dry bias over Indian landmass. The Bay of Bengal (BoB), with its shallow mixed layers and unique thermal stratification, significantly modulates the convective activity in this region at subseasonal‐to‐seasonal timescales through modulation of sea surface temperature. The highly stratified upper ocean in the BoB is due to the enormous freshwater it receives from rains and rivers. A river routing model is coupled to the CFSv2 to account for the riverine freshwater and the improvements in modelling the upper‐ocean structure are analysed. Model simulations indicate that inclusion of temporally varying riverine freshwater improves the upper‐ocean state in the BoB and the observed mixed‐layer temperature gradients in the Bay are simulated reasonably after incorporating the time varying river runoff. This resulted in increased LPS lifetime and track density, and enhanced rainfall over central India. Better representation of the upper‐ocean stratification in the model leads to larger post‐convection shoaling of mixed layers at intraseasonal timescales, thereby forming thick barrier layers. Enhanced air–sea interactions restricted to the shallow mixed layer are associated with stronger vorticity, specific humidity and low‐level convergence to the north of the intraseasonal convection band. This enhanced low‐level moisture convergence north of the convection centre results in realistic northward propagation of MISO and aids LPS activity. It is demonstrated that better simulation of the upper‐ocean structure in coupled climate models can improve the representation of subseasonal modes of monsoon variability. These results bear important implications for operational forecasting.

Strong subsurface meridional current forced by monsoon intraseasonal oscillation in the southern Bay of Bengal during summer 2020

The meridional current in the southern Bay of Bengal (BOB) exhibits prominent intraseasonal variability (ISV), which exerts a critical influence on meridional mass and energy exchange. However, its relationship with the northward propagating monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO), which is the predominant variability in the tropical Indian Ocean during summer, is not well understood. Using a one-year mooring deployed at 5.5 °N, 90 °E, a strong ISV of the meridional current is observed between 150 and 250 m during summer, exhibiting amplitudes exceeding 0.4 ms−1 and periods of 30–70 d. Further analysis shows that the summer ISV is forced by a strong MISO event with the following dynamic processes. The MISO first drives the zonal wind stress at the equator, leading to the equatorial Kelvin wave and the reflected equatorial Rossby wave at 5 °N. Then, the MISO propagates northward and generates local wind stress curl-induced Ekman pumping near the mooring site, leading to the subsequent off-equatorial Rossby wave at 8 °N. As a result, the synergy of the remotely- and locally-forced Rossby wave causes strong subsurface ISV in southern BOB. This study provides a new insight into the dynamic relationship between the MISO and the meridional current in the southern BOB, which has important implications for regional climate research and prediction.

Bay of Bengal upper-ocean stratification and the sub-seasonal variability in convection: Role of rivers in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model

The Bay of Bengal (BoB) receives a large amount of freshwater from rains and rivers, resulting in large upper-ocean stratification due to the freshening effect. This salinity stratification has been theorized to impact sea-surface temperature (SST) and convection on intra-seasonal time scales by affecting the ocean mixed layer and the barrier layer. This article aims to quantify the impact of salinity stratification on the sub-seasonal variability in SST and convection by using in-situ ocean observations and coupled model experiments. It is shown that monsoon intra-seasonal oscillations (MISOs) exhibit varied levels of intra-seasonal variability in SST and rainfall based on the underlying ocean conditions. The largest intra-seasonal variability in SST does not cause the largest convection variability in the north-western BoB. Instead, moderate variability in SST and rainfall associated with MISOs co-occur with deep mixed layer and thick barrier layer conditions. Realistic representation of river freshwater fluxes in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model leads to improved intra-seasonal SST and rainfall variability. Thick barrier layers in the north-western Bay attenuates the entrainment cooling of the mixed layer, and the high mixed layer heat content provides conducive oceanic conditions for the genesis of monsoon low-pressure systems (LPS), thereby affecting rainfall over India. This study has important implications for operation forecasting using coupled models.

Signals of northward propagating monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) in the RegCM4.7 CORDEX-CORE simulation over South Asia domain

Northward propagating summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) in the Indian Ocean region remain poorly understood and difficult to predict. Here we examine a free-running high-resolution regional atmospheric model (RegCM4.7 with 25 km resolution), forced distantly at the boundaries by atmospheric observations (ERA-Interim, 0.75 $$^{\circ }$$ ) and forced locally by observed sea-surface temperature (SST) over the period 1979–2016, to assess its ability to reproduce key aspects of these MISOs. We find that the model MISO exhibits spatial structures and northward propagation characteristics broadly similar to observed MISO when confining the analysis to the 25–90 day period band. The MISO precipitation anomalies are then shown to be consistent with previously known observed relationships to broad-scale sea-level pressure patterns, Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) positioning, and changes in the regional Hadley Cell component. The total simulated seasonal (JJAS) rainfall anomalies over India are not significantly correlated with observations, indicating that intrinsic variations in the regional model atmosphere dominate most of the precipitation variability. However, the bandpass-filtered MISO anomalies surprisingly exhibit a significant correlation (0.61) with observations. This suggests that instabilities in the regional broad-scale atmospheric circulation, e.g., linked to the ITCZ position or strength, may be partly controlled by the large-scale atmospheric flows specified at the domain boundaries and/or that specified local SST anomalies may help to guide some fraction of the developing model MISO to follow observations. This result motivates further research on MISO initiation and development using this type of regional atmospheric model.

Impacts of Sea Surface Temperature Gradient on Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillation

Abstract The northward-propagating monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO) is the most pronounced variability over the tropical Indian Ocean during the Indian summer monsoon (June–September). MISO is accompanied by significant air–sea interactions; however, the mechanism of the oceanic feedback to MISO is still a great scientific challenge. In this study, the role of the intraseasonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient in MISO is diagnosed using reanalysis products and model sensitivity experiments. It is found that the positive meridional gradient of intraseasonal SST induces positive wind convergence in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and leads convection by about 1–2 days. This accounts for approximately half of the total wind convergence in the PBL to the north of convection during MISO. The warm SST anomalies before convection accelerate the intraseasonal northerly wind in the PBL due to the enhanced downward transport of momentum from aloft. By contrast, the cold SST anomalies behind deep convection weaken the downward vertical momentum transport, thereby inducing a deceleration in the intraseasonal northerly. Consequently, changes in the speed of intraseasonal northerly along the meridional direction strengthen the PBL wind convergence ahead of deep convection. It finally results in the intensification of intraseasonal rainfall associated with MISO over the summer monsoon region. In addition, a strong (weak) SST meridional gradient at an intraseasonal time scale amplifies (lessens) the MISO intensity in the model simulation. Thus, this study highlights the role of SST meridional gradient in the feedback to MISO, which differs from the weak contribution of the warm SST itself to the wind convergence mentioned in previous studies. Collectively, these findings indicate that consideration of oceanic feedback is necessary to improve the understanding and simulation of MISO.

On Synergy between Convective Equatorial Signals and Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations in the Bay of Bengal

Abstract The relationship between eastward-propagating convective equatorial signals (CES) along the equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) and the northward-propagating monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) in the Bay of Bengal (BOB) was studied using observational datasets acquired during the 2018 and 2019 MISO-BOB field campaigns. Convective envelopes of MISOs originating from just south of the BOB were associated with both strong and weak eastward CES (average speed ∼6.4 m s−1). Strong CES contributed to ∼20% of the precipitation budget of BOB, and they spurred northward-propagating convective signals that matched the canonical speed of MISOs (1–2 m s−1). In contrast, weak CES contributed to ∼14% of the BOB precipitation budget, and they dissipated without significant northward propagation. Eastward-propagating intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs; period 30–60 days) and convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs; period 4–15 days) accounted for most precipitation variability across the EIO during the 2019 boreal summer as compared with that of 2018. An agreement could be noted between high moisture content in the midtroposphere and the active phases of CCKWs and ISOs for two observational locations in the BOB. Basin-scale thermodynamic conditions prior to the arrival of strong or weak CES revealed warmer or cooler sea surface temperatures, respectively. Flux measurements aboard a research vessel suggest that the evolution of MISOs associated with strong CES are signified by local enhanced air–sea interactions, in particular the supply of local moisture and sensible heat, which could enhance deep convection and further moisten the upper troposphere. Significance Statement Eastward-propagating convective signals along the equatorial Indian Ocean and their relationship to the northward-propagating spells of rainfall that lead to moisture variability in the Bay of Bengal are studied for the 2018 and 2019 southwest monsoon seasons using observational datasets acquired during field campaigns. Strong convective equatorial signals spurred northward-propagating convection, as compared with weak signals that dissipated without significant northward propagation. Wave spectral analysis showed CCKWs (period 4–15 days), and eastward ISOs (period 30–60 days) accounted for most of the precipitation variability, with the former dominating during the 2018 boreal summer. High moisture periods observed from radiosonde measurements show agreement with the active phases of CCKWs and ISOs.

Multi‐Scale Temporal Variability of Turbulent Mixing During a Monsoon Intra‐Seasonal Oscillation in the Bay of Bengal: An LES Study

AbstractA process study using large‐eddy simulations is carried out to explore the dominant 1‐D processes that affect mixed layer (ML) properties during an event of summer Monsoon Intra‐seasonal Oscillations (MISO) in the Bay of Bengal (BOB). These simulations use realistic air‐sea fluxes and initial conditions that were collected during the summer 2018 MISO‐BOB field experiment to explore the roles of thermal inversion layer (TIL) and Langmuir turbulence (LT) in modulating ML properties. The simulations span an active period with heavy rain and strong winds and a break period with strong solar heat flux and little rain. The mixed layer depth (MLD), sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) are most affected by the presence of near‐inertial oscillations, solar heating and precipitation, all of which occur at different timescales. The subsurface warming induced by the TIL reduces the SST variability at the MISO timescale when compared with the simulation without TIL. Comparison of simulations with and without LT indicates that LT enhances subsurface warming during the active phase and reduces diurnal SST modulation during the break phase. Simulations with 1‐D mixing models show a wide disparity in the evolution of MLD, SST, and SSS.

Persistent Wet and Dry Spells of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: A Reexamination of Definitions of “Active” and “Break” Events

Abstract Persisting wet events (PWEs) and persisting dry events (PDEs) over central India (CI), defined by rain spells lasting for 5 days or more above and below climatology, respectively, represent an important component of the Indian summer monsoon’s intraseasonal variability. However, half of such PREs and PDEs that do not overlap with conventionally defined “active” and “break” spells over CI while contributing about 20% to the seasonal mean remained poorly studied. Here we find that, in contrast to more abundant longer (>5 days) wet and dry spells over the CI, the intraseasonal rainfall variability over northeast India (NEI) is characterized by higher abundance of intense shorter spells (<5 days). Physically, the difference is linked to the fact that monsoon intraseasonal oscillations with a 30–60-day time scale dominate subseasonal variability over the CI, whereas the 10–20-day quasi-biweekly mode dominates subseasonal variability over NEI. While non-overlapping PDEs are associated with large-scale but lower-intensity breaks, non-overlapping PWEs are associated with synoptic events with relatively smaller spatial scales rather than large-scale active events. Here, a percentile-based definition of active and break spells as daily rainfall in excess of the 90th percentile and below the 30th percentile, respectively, persisting for more than 3 days is proposed; this encompasses almost all non-overlapping PWEs and PDEs and is expected to be more useful to the users. Contributions of the subseasonal fluctuations to the seasonal mean and their association with predictable drivers indicate that the seasonal mean rainfall over the NEI is significantly less predictable than that over the CI. Significance Statement Farmers eagerly await the extended range projections of “wet” and “dry” phases of Indian monsoon intraseasonal variability for planting, harvesting, and water resource management. The prevailing definitions for “active” and “break” spells, however, ignored the less intense persisting wet or dry events that contribute roughly equally to the seasonal mean rainfall. To facilitate the process, a new percentile-based definition of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall’s intraseasonal spells is proposed that includes nearly all non-overlapping PWEs and PDEs. The subseasonal fluctuations’ contributions to the seasonal mean and its association with predictable drivers suggest that the seasonal mean rainfall over the NEI is much less predictable than that over the CI, and thus illustrates the contrasting features of spells within these two regions.

Intraseasonal Variability of Surface Circulation in the Indo‐Pacific Warm Pool Induced by Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations

AbstractThe Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO) is the most influential mode of tropical atmospheric intraseasonal variability in boreal summer (May–October). This study investigates how the MISO drives the intraseasonal variability (ISV) of zonal currents (U) in the Indo‐Pacific warm pool (IPWP) region. An analysis of satellite observations confirms a close association between U ISV and the MISO, with MISO‐induced surface U anomalies reaching 16–19 cm s−1 near the equator and 4–5 cm s−1 in the Northern Hemisphere portion of the IPWP. These ISVs account for 15%–35% of the intensity changes in the major zonal currents. The spatial distribution of U ISV shows coherent enhancement and suppression of MISO convections with a lag of approximately 7 days as a delayed response to the tropical wind forcing. ISV anomalies show northward emanation following propagation of the MISO. Ocean model experiments confirm that large‐scale ISV in surface U is primarily caused by the wind forcing of the MISO. Owing to the convergence/divergence of MISO‐induced U ISV, significant warm water volume anomalies occur in the western‐to‐central equatorial Pacific.

Comparison of coupled and uncoupled models in simulating Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillation from CMIP6

Comparison of coupled and uncoupled models in simulating Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillation from CMIP6

Data for manuscript entitled "Strong subsurface meridional current forced by monsoon intraseasonal oscillation in southern Bay of Bengal during summer 2020"

Data for manuscript entitled "Strong subsurface meridional current forced by monsoon intraseasonal oscillation in southern Bay of Bengal during summer 2020"

Intraseasonal Air–Sea Interaction Over the Southeastern Indian Ocean and its Impact on Indian Summer Monsoon

The weak monsoon rainfall simulation in the CMIP6 models calls for further process understanding about the Indian summer monsoon (ISM), especially the intraseasonal variabilities. Here, the remote forcing from the Southern Hemisphere on the Indian summer monsoon is examined. Over the southeastern Indian Ocean (SEIO), intraseasonal warm SST anomalies can induce low-level southeasterly wind anomalies and accelerate the background southeasterly wind. According to the mechanism of Wind-Evaporation-SST (WES) feedback, the wind acceleration gives rise to the positive anomalies of surface latent heat flux (LHF). The intraseasonal wind anomalies propagate equatorward along with the background southeasterlies; the positive LHF increases the moist static energy over the equator. As a result, deep convections are reinforced over tropics, which strengthen the northward-propagating monsoon intraseasonal oscillations. During boreal summer, the northward intraseasonal oscillation prompts enhanced rainfall events over the monsoon region. Current results indicate the inter-hemispheric impacts as an inevitable contributor to the heavy precipitation during ISM in the Northern Hemisphere. In CMIP6, the models with better SST simulations over SEIO can have stronger equatorial rainfall and more realistic northward propagation. The unsatisfactory simulations of CMIP6 are associated with the defective ocean–atmosphere interaction over SEIO, and one clue is the feeble variances of intraseasonal oceanic signals over SEIO, which is far from the observation. This research offers a new perspective on the chronic dry monsoon bias in the Northern Hemisphere; the cross-equatorial process and the bias of intraseasonal oceanic variation over SEIO deserve further attention in the coupled models.

Monsoon depressions and air-sea interactions during different phases of monsoon intraseasonal oscillation

Monsoon depressions and air-sea interactions during different phases of monsoon intraseasonal oscillation

Prediction of the Central Indian Ocean Mode in S2S Models

Prediction of precipitation during the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is a persistent scientific challenge. The central Indian Ocean (CIO) mode was proposed as a subseasonal climate mode over the tropical Indian Ocean, and it has a close relation with monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) during the ISM both in observations and simulations. In this study, the prediction skill of the CIO mode in the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) air–sea coupled models is examined. The ECMWF and UKMO models display significantly higher skills for up to about 2 and 3 weeks, respectively, which are longer than other S2S models. The decline of the CIO mode prediction skill is due to the reduced signal of subseasonal zonal winds at 850 hPa over the tropical central Indian Ocean (especially along the equator; 5°S–5°N, 70°E–85°E). Therefore, a better simulation of tropical subseasonal zonal winds is required to improve the CIO mode prediction in models, and the improvement will benefit a better MISO simulation and a higher prediction skill during the ISM.

Maintenance of Cyclonic Vortex During Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillation: A View From Kinetic Energy Budget

AbstractThe Monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO) is the predominant variability over the tropical Indian Ocean during the Indian summer monsoon. A cyclonic vortex plays a critical role in the northward propagation of MISO. Here, we find that the pronounced intraseasonal kinetic energy accompanying the vortex is attributable to the barotropic energy gain from the background circulation. In particular, due to the phase shift between vortex and low‐level horizontal wind convergence, the covariance of the intraseasonal easterly and downdraft reinforces the intraseasonal kinetic energy before vortex. In contrast, the interaction between westerly and updraft nourishes the kinetic energy after vortex. Overall, the nonlinear processes across different scales are vital for the energy exchange during MISO, and this is dynamically different from that of Madden‐Julian oscillations. It implies that although these two major intraseasonal oscillations share the same spatiotemporal scales over the Indian Ocean, they are controlled by fundamentally different dynamical processes.