Monitoring The Future Research Articles

Nicotine use among reservation-area American Indian adolescents compared with a national sample

BackgroundPast research has found significant nicotine use disparities for reservation-area American Indian adolescents when compared to national levels. However, adolescent nicotine use has changed markedly, with reduced smoking and rapid increases in nicotine vaping. This study presents 2021–2022 prevalence estimates of tobacco product use, perceived harm and availability for reservation-area American Indian youth, with comparisons to the Monitoring the Future (MTF) national study. MethodsParticipants were 8th, 10th and 12th grade students. American Indian data were 33 reservation-area schools in 2021–2022 (n=2420); MTF data were 308 schools in Spring 2022 (n=31,438). Measures were lifetime, 30-day cigarette smoking, smokeless tobacco use, and nicotine vaping; past-year nicotine vaping; daily smoking; perceived harmfulness and availability of these tobacco products. Prevalence and 95% confidence intervals were computed by grade. ResultsEstimated prevalence of lifetime, monthly and daily cigarette smoking among American Indian 8th and 10th graders was higher than national levels. Nicotine vaping prevalence was similar between samples. American Indian students were less likely to report tobacco product use poses great risk, but also less likely to report tobacco products are easily available. ConclusionsAlthough estimated smoking prevalence among American Indian 8th and 10th graders was higher than national levels, prevalence appears lower than reported in earlier studies, suggesting declining disparities. Prevalence of nicotine vaping among reservation-area American Indian adolescents generally mirrors the national population; however, a lower percentage reported regular nicotine vaping poses a serious risk. This discrepancy suggests a need for prevention and intervention efforts culturally tailored for this population.

Further Exploring the Relationship Between Virtual Socializing and Adolescent Vaping Activity

Previous research suggests that virtual socializing is associated with adolescent substance use and vaping activity. However, at present, very little research has explored the functional form of this relationship. This study extends the current research by testing for nonlinearity in the relationship between virtual socializing and adolescent vaping activity using data from the 2018 eighth and tenth grade cohorts of Monitoring the Future (MTF). Our findings indicate that virtual socializing appears to demonstrate a nonlinear relationship with the likelihood and frequency of adolescent vaping activities. Specifically, our findings reveal a nonlinear relationship wherein virtual socializing is initially associated with increased vaping activity, however after reaching a point, additional virtual socializing is no longer associated with increases in vaping activity.

Gone with the weed: incidents of adolescent marijuana use in the United States, 1976–2021

This study sought to examine grouped and right-censored (GRC) counts of adolescent marijuana useand estimate its temporal trajectories and sociodemographic disparities over almost half a century. After compiling 46 waves of nationally representative data from the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study from 1976 to 2021 (sample size=491,348), we utilized an innovative modified Poisson (mixture) approach to analyze past-year marijuana use quantified by GRC counts. The overall reduction in incidence rates of marijuana use was attributable to an almost 40% reduction in the risk of marijuana use (with the proportion of at-risk adolescents at 51.36% in 1979 and 31.53% in 2021). Despite substantial changes over the study period, the recent incidence rates for at-risk individuals were similar to those in the early 1980s. Living in an intact family was a protective factor against adolescent marijuana use over time. The incidence rates of marijuana use among at-risk students, especially those from disadvantaged families, remained high over the study period. The modified Poisson (mixture) approach serves as the preferred tool for modeling GRC responses. It is essential to distinguish among risk, at-risk incidence, and overall incidence when assessing substance use and other risky behaviors.

What Substances Are Adolescents Vaping? Estimating Nicotine-Specific and Cannabis-Specific Vaping from US National Youth Surveys

Background Youth use of electronic cigarettes (“e-cigarettes”) is an ongoing concern. Vaping is usually assumed to be of nicotine, but survey responses may also include vaping of non-nicotine substances (particularly cannabis), which can impose different risks. The current study quantifies the proportions of nicotine-specific and cannabis-specific vaping among adolescents. Methods Data from the Monitoring the Future (MTF) 2021 survey were analyzed with respect to the substance vaped: nicotine, cannabis, or flavoring only. Past-30-day (P30D) nicotine-specific vaping (exclusively, or also having vaped other substances) and cannabis-specific vaping were calculated. Results were also broken down by grade level, cigarette smoking history (current, former, or never), and frequency of e-cigarette use (<20 vs. 20+ days in P30D). Results Among 4706 P30D e-cigarette users, 84.2% vaped nicotine; the remaining 15.8% reported not vaping any nicotine in P30D. Cannabis vaping was reported by 48.4% of P30D vapers. Vaping both nicotine and cannabis in P30D was more common in current and former smokers than in never-smokers, and in frequent vapers (of any substance). Conversely, never-smokers were more commonly vaping cannabis but not nicotine, compared to current and former smokers. Supplementary NYTS 2022 analyses were consistent with these findings. Conclusions A notable proportion of self-reported P30D vapers reported not vaping nicotine; nearly half vaped cannabis. Capturing the variety of substances used in vaping devices is imperative for accurate public health surveillance of both nicotine and cannabis vaping among US adolescents, considering their different respective harms and regulatory frameworks.

Dramatic Reductions in Cigarette Smoking Prevalence among High School Youth from 1991 to 2022 Unlikely to Have Been Undermined by E-Cigarettes.

There is concern that youth e-cigarette use could lead youth to initiate cigarette smoking. This study identifies epochs of cigarette smoking among U.S. high school students in three commonly utilized national school-based surveys over three decades without a priori assumptions. We examined trends in ever and current cigarette smoking among high school youth from 1991 to 2022 in three datasets: Monitoring the Future (MTF), the National Youth Risk Behavior Survey (NYRBS) and the National Youth Tobacco Survey (NYTS) via Joinpoint regression. High stable rates of ever smoking were noted from 1991 to 1999 (NYRBS and MTF) and then significantly declined from 1999 to 2013; declines accelerated through to 2022. In the NYTS, ever cigarette smoking significantly declined from 1999 to 2018 and then declines accelerated to 2022. Current cigarette smoking reached its peak in 1997, and then significantly declined from 1997 to 2013 in the NYRBS and MTF and similarly in the NYTS from 1999 to 2018. Declines in current smoking then accelerated in all surveys through to 2022. These findings suggest dramatic successes in reducing youth smoking since the late 1990s, with more rapid declines in prevalence in the past decade.

Theory, Measurement, and Psychometric Properties of Risk and Protective Factors for Drug Misuse Among Adolescents Living on or near the Cherokee Nation Reservation

A team of tribe-based behavioral health specialists and university-based researchers partnered to implement a cluster randomized trial for the prevention of drug misuse among adolescents attending public high schools on or near the Cherokee Nation Reservation in northeastern Oklahoma. The conceptual framework, which guided intervention and measurement design for the trial, incorporates indigenous knowledge and worldviews with empirically-based frameworks and evidence-based practices. Our goal is to serve multicultural youth, families, and schools and to provide a model of effective strategies for wide dissemination. This paper presents the conceptual model, survey design, and psychometric properties of scales to measure risk and protective factors for substance misuse. The survey includes common measures drawn from the PhenX Toolkit on substance use patterns—adolescent module, measured with standard items from the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study and items harmonized across ten NIH-funded research projects with diverse samples of youth. In our trial, brief (20-minute) self-report questionnaires were administered to 10th grade students in fall 2021 (n = 919, 87% response rate) and spring 2022 (n = 929, 89% response rate) in 20 participating high schools on or near the Cherokee Nation Reservation. The sample primarily fell into the following three categories of race/ethnicity identification: only American Indian (AI-only, 29%), AI and another race/ethnicity (AI+, 27%), and only White (35%). Results indicate that risk and protective factor scales were reliably and validly measured with 10 scales and 10 subscales. There were minimal differences between youth who identified as AI only, AI+, and White only, especially for the main scales, which provide confidence in the interpretation of trial outcomes across demographic groups. Study results may not be generalizable to AI/AN youth who live and attend school in more homogenous reservation lands, or alternatively, live in large diverse metropolitan areas.

High-intensity drinking and hours spent drinking.

High-intensity drinking (HID) is associated with negative consequences, but it remains unclear whether a time qualifier (i.e., time spent drinking) is needed to identify individuals at highest risk. To improve the measurement and conceptualization of HID, we examined the utility of adding a time qualifier to define what constitutes an occasion of HID using repeated daily surveys in a sample of young adults. Participants were selected from a nationally representative sample of 12th-grade students in the United States who participated in the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study in Spring 2018. In 2019 and 2020, young adults (at modal ages 19-20) responded to annual and daily (14 consecutive days per year) online surveys about their alcohol use. When we compared moderate drinking days (less than 4/5 drinks for women/men), binge drinking days (4-7/5-9 drinks), and HID days (8+/10+ drinks), HID days had the longest duration of drinking (5.2 h), highest peak estimated blood alcohol concentration (eBAC, 0.30%), and greatest drinking pace (2.58 drinks/h). HID was associated with a greater number of negative consequences than either moderate or binge drinking; adjusting for time spent drinking did not impact this interpretation. HID was reported on 10.9% of days; when defined as 8/10+ drinks in 4 h or 2 h, HID was reported on 4.8% and 1.0% of days, respectively. Nearly all differences in eBAC and negative consequences persisted across drinking intensity despite the introduction of time constraints. HID days were characterized by both a longer time spent drinking and a more rapid pace of drinking. Adding a time qualifier to the definition of HID would restrict variability by only describing the minority of days and does not improve the distinctions among levels of risk.

Engagement in types of activities and frequency of alcohol use in a national sample of United States adolescents.

Adolescents with fewer sources of environmental reinforcement may be at risk for alcohol use. Behavioral economic theories posit that engagement in some activities may facilitate alcohol use, whereas other activities may be incompatible with use and reduce likelihood of alcohol use. It is unclear which types of activities may facilitate or may be incompatible with alcohol use in adolescence. Using a national sample of adolescents, the current study examined differences in engagement with types of activities that may be incompatible with alcohol use, compared among adolescents who endorsed alcohol use, and adolescents who did not. Data from the 2019 Monitoring the Future (MTF) study (N = 4626) were analyzed. Potentially incompatible and facilitating activities, and alcohol-involved activities were identified from pre-existing survey measures. Confirmatory factor analysis, measurement invariance, and structural equation modeling were used to examine patterns in activity engagement among those who endorsed alcohol use and those who did not. Participants who did not endorse alcohol use reported higher engagement in activities that may be incompatible with alcohol use, including enjoyment from school and going to the mall (p < .001). Participants who endorsed alcohol use reported higher engagement in activities that may facilitate alcohol use (p < .001), such as spending time with friends and attending parties. Facilitating activities (β = 0.15, p < .001) and alcohol-involved activities (β = 0.70, p < .001) were positively associated with alcohol use frequency. Observed effect sizes were small in magnitude for all findings. The findings support the premise of behavioral economic theory, suggesting some activities may serve as protective factors against alcohol use frequency while other activities may facilitate alcohol use among adolescents. National surveys may consider adding specific measure of activity engagement to identify activities that may be incompatible with alcohol use among adolescents.

Not just teens, big drug problems in young adults

The Monitoring the Future (MTF) panel study released this month shows that adults ages 35–50 have a big problem with binge drinking and marijuana. This panel study focuses on post‐high school participants; the basic MTF survey is of high school students only. So, epidemiologists can now find out about trends as these young people get older. And it is a good thing to know too, because the most recent survey has found that among adults ages 35–50, there are historic highs for.

Translating the nuanced risk for substance use among adolescents treated for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) into clinical practice: a commentary on McCabe etal. (2023).

In their recent examination of the Monitoring the Future (MTF) data, McCabe etal. (Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry, 2023) address the complex, longstanding, and clinically valuable questions of whether and how stimulant medication treatment for adolescents with ADHD relates to their risk for substance use. Here, we expand on the authors' interpretations of their nuanced findings of increased risk for illicit stimulant use and non-prescribed stimulant medication use for youth with later age of medication treatment initiation and shorter treatment duration. We particularly focus on highlighting tangible clinical implications, and we recommend ways future research can build on the authors' findings to further clarify this important issue.

Trends in coping reasons for marijuana use among U.S. adolescents from 2016 to 2022

ObjectiveThis study examines historical trends in coping reasons for marijuana use among adolescents (1976–2022) and explores sociodemographic variations in recent years (2016–2022). MethodData from U.S. national samples of 12th grade adolescents in the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study were used to examine long-term trends (1976–2022, N = 43,237) and recent differences by sociodemographic characteristics (2016–2022, N = 3,816). Measures included marijuana use, coping reasons for use, and sociodemographic characteristics. ResultsThe most prevalent coping reason across time was “relax,” endorsed by 52.9% of past 12-month users. Coping reasons mostly exhibited significant increases over time. Sociodemographic factors were associated with coping reasons. Females had higher odds of using marijuana to escape problems and get through the day (vs. males). Black respondents were more likely to use marijuana to get through the day, and Hispanic respondents were more likely to use to relax (vs. White respondents). Those with lower (vs. higher) parental education were more likely to use due to anger/frustration and to escape problems. Adolescents who used marijuana frequently (vs. less often) had higher odds of endorsing all coping reasons. There was no robust evidence of interactions between sociodemographic characteristics and year. ConclusionsResults indicate a consistent increase in coping reasons for adolescent marijuana use over time, with variations based on sociodemographic characteristics. The findings highlight the importance of understanding subpopulations of adolescents who have higher risk of coping-related marijuana use.

Frequency of Adequate Sleep and Different Forms of Delinquency Across Adolescence: Evidence From Nationally Representative Samples of Youth

An emerging body of research documents a relationship between sleep quantity and delinquency during adolescence. Absent from this line of research, however, is an evaluation of whether the associations between sleep duration and different forms of delinquency vary across periods of adolescence and sex. The current study aimed to address this gap in the body of literature by analyzing data from nationally representative samples of 8th, 10th, and 12th graders from the 2010 to 2019 Monitoring the Future (MTF) surveys. Multivariate regression models reveal that relations between getting less than 7 hours of sleep and violent and non-violent delinquent behavior vary across grade level. Specifically, associations between less sleep and forms of delinquency are stronger for males in grades 8 and 10 compared to males in grade 12 or females. Implications of the results for future research and policies designed to increase sleep quantity during adolescent development are discussed.

The big drug population in the US is now adults ages 35–50

The Monitoring the Future (MTF) panel study released this month shows that adults ages 35–50 have a big problem with binge drinking and marijuana. This panel study focuses on post–high school participants; the basic MTF survey is of high school students only. So, epidemiologists can now find out about trends as these young people get older. And it is a good thing to know, too, because the most recent survey has found that among adults ages 35–50, there are historic highs for.

The moderating role of mental health on the association between COVID-related stress, isolation, and economic hardship and using substances to cope

Since young adulthood is a vulnerable period for adverse mental health experiences and high-risk substance use, it is critical to understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on young adult mental health and substance use behaviors. Therefore, we determined whether the relationship between COVID-related stressors and using substances to cope with COVID-related social distancing and isolation was moderated by depression and anxiety among young adults. Data were from the Monitoring the Future (MTF) Vaping Supplement (total N = 1244). Logistic regressions assessed the relations between COVID-related stressors, depression, anxiety, demographic characteristics, and interactions between depression/anxiety and COVID-related stressors with vaping more, drinking more, and using marijuana to cope with COVID-related social distancing and isolation. Greater COVID-related stress due to social distancing was associated with vaping more to cope among those with more depression symptoms and drinking more to cope among those with more symptoms of anxiety. Similarly, COVID-related economic hardships were associated with using marijuana to cope among those with more symptoms of depression. However, feeling less COVID-related isolation and social distancing stress was linked to vaping and drinking more to cope, respectively, among those with more symptoms of depression. These findings suggest that the most vulnerable young adults are seeking substances to cope with the pandemic, while potentially experiencing co-occurring depression and anxiety along with COVID-related stressors. Therefore, intervention programs to support young adults who are struggling with their mental health in the aftermath of the pandemic as they transition into adulthood are critical.

Comparing National College Health Assessment with other surveys of cannabis use and binge drinking among young adult college students 2008–2018

Objective: We considered the utility of National College Health Assessment (NCHA) data relative to other national data for studying college students’ cannabis use and binge drinking, and drug policy effects. Participants: Survey data on 18–22-year old college students were drawn from the 2008–2018 NCHA, National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), Monitoring the Future (MTF), and Healthy Minds Study (HMS). Methods: Prevalence estimates were compared across data sources in terms of level and change from 2008–2018 using linear regressions, separately for men and women. Results: Mean prevalence estimates for 30-day cannabis use and 2-week binge drinking, and linear time trends did not differ significantly among NCHA, NSDUH, and MTF. Conclusions: NCHA prevalence estimates are similar to those from NSDUH and MTF, NCHA has unique strengths, and some weaknesses can be offset. Findings support the value of NCHA for studying college students’ substance use and effects of drug policy.

Feasibility of mailed biomarker data collection among U.S. young adults: Saliva-based cotinine and self-reported nicotine use

BackgroundNationally representative self-report studies are the standard for data on the prevalence of substance use. Newly emerging biomarker assessments can add objective measurements of exposure. However, biomarker assessment has typically depended on in-person sample collection. The current study examined whether young adults in a national sample would be willing and able to provide a saliva sample via mail, and the correspondence of cotinine in the saliva sample with self-reported vaping and smoking. MethodsData collection for the Monitoring the Future (MTF) Vaping Supplement was from September to November 2020. Eligible participants (N = 4358) were selected from a nationally-representative sample of US 12th-grade students in MTF in spring 2019. The MTF Vaping Supplement surveyed individuals nationally about one year after the 12th grade MTF survey (in 2020, mean age = 19.6 years; N = 1244). Survey weights accounted for design and attrition. ResultsOf those surveyed, 66.2% consented to provide a saliva sample and, of those, 73.8% mailed a sample. There were no significant differences in providing a saliva sample across any demographic characteristic, but those who reported nicotine use were less likely to provide a sample. Cotinine cut-off measures of > 3 ng/mL and > 10 ng/mL had good correspondence with self-reported measures. ConclusionsResults support the feasibility of collecting saliva via the mail in a national sample and the validity of data collected in this way. These findings support future research innovations to expand existing survey research protocols to include biomarker data collection in representative samples of young adults.

Cannabis vaping among high school seniors in adult-use, medical, and prohibited legal contexts

BackgroundVaping cannabis among adolescents has been increasing. Monitoring the Future (MTF) indicated in 2019 that past-month cannabis vaping among 12th graders underwent the second-highest single-year jump ever tracked by MTF for any substance in its 45-year history. These increases in adolescents who vape cannabis do not parallel declining general adolescent cannabis use trends. Nevertheless, research on cannabis consumption via vaping, especially among adolescents, has been substantially limited. MethodWe examined associations between legal contexts (prohibited, medical, and adult use) and vaping cannabis in the past year among high school seniors. In addition, associations between vaping cannabis and factors such as availability and acceptability were examined using secondary data from MTF (2020), with a sub-sample size of 556 participants (overall sample size: n = 3,770), using multivariate logistic regression models. ResultsWe found that high school seniors in medical states had higher odds of past-year vaping cannabis, but 12th graders in adult-use states were not significantly more likely to vape cannabis than those in prohibited states. Increased availability of vaping products and decreased risk perceptions in medical states may explain this relationship. Adolescents who perceived high risks associated with regular cannabis use had decreased odds of vaping cannabis. High school seniors reporting very easy access to cannabis cartridges had increased odds of vaping cannabis, regardless of legal context. ConclusionThese results contribute knowledge about contextual factors related to adolescent cannabis vaping, a relatively new technique of cannabis consumption for which there is growing societal concern.

Increase in marijuana use, binge drinking by young adults

Marijuana use has reached historic highs among young adults ages 19 to 30 years old, with 29% using marijuana in the past 30 days, and 43% using it in the past year; 10.8% used it on a daily or near daily basis (more than 20 days in the past 30 days). The data is based on the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study conducted for the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA). The study uses self‐reports; most recent data is from 2021.

MTF: Cannabis use with vaping goes up, cannabis smoking down

More and more high schoolers are using marijuana by vaping, and fewer are using it by smoking, according to a recent study of the Monitoring the Future (MTF) survey conducted by the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA). So the next time you hear someone say that marijuana use in teens is going down, ask them about the route of administration.

Marijuana and 10‐drink binges on the increase among young adults

The Monitoring the Future (MTF) study released in August by the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA) found that marijuana use has reached historic highs among young adults ages 19 to 30 years old, with 29% using marijuana in the past 30 days, and 43% using it in the past year; 10.8% used it on a daily or near daily basis (more than 20 days in the past 30 days). The study uses self‐reports; most recent data is from 2021.