Monitoring The Future Research Articles

Survey Design Elements as Influences on Estimates of Self-Reported Illicit Substance Use and Other Illegal Activities

National surveys of self-reported substance use and other problem behavior frequently produce different prevalence estimates for substance use and other problem behaviors. There is research indicating different aspects of survey methodology may artificially inflate or deflate prevalence rates, and while some research has been done on specific influences, taken separately, little has been done to estimate the cumulative impact of these methodological variations, taken together, on survey estimates. The present study compares methodologies of three studies, Monitoring the Future (MTF), National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), and National Youth Survey Family Study (NYSFS), on how differences in methodology may influence estimated rates of problem behavior, and the extent to which knowledge of the differences, taken in combination, allow prediction of differences in those rates. Differences in survey methodology are predictive of differences in prevalence. Implications for the use of the surveys are considered.

Drug use down or level among teens: Good news from NIDA

The current Monitoring the Future (MTF) survey from the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA) is full of mainly good news: continued decreases in teen use of cigarettes, alcohol, prescription opioids, and synthetic cannabinoids. The level of marijuana use has not gone down, however, with 6% of 12th graders using it on a daily basis — the same figure for 2015 as for 2014.

Drug use down or level among teens: Good news from MTF

The current Monitoring the Future (MTF) survey from the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA) is full of mainly good news: continued decreases in teen use of cigarettes, alcohol, prescription opioids, and synthetic cannabinoids. The level of marijuana use has not gone down, however, with 6% of 12th graders using it on a daily basis — the same figure for 2015 as for 2014.

Internet use and adolescent binge drinking: Findings from the Monitoring the Future study

ObjectiveTo investigate the relation between Internet use and binge drinking during early and middle adolescence. MethodsThis is a cross-sectional study of a sub-sample of 8th and 10th graders from the Monitoring the Future (MtF) study, which annually surveys a nationally representative sample of U.S. youth on their attitudes, behaviors, and values. This study includes data from 21,170 8th and 24,362 10th graders who participated between 2007 and 2012 and were asked questions about Internet use and binge drinking. ResultsIn fully adjusted models, we found a dose response relation between hours of recreational Internet use (i.e. outside work or school) and binge drinking which was stronger for 8th than 10th graders. Compared to <1h of Internet use per week, odds ratios estimates for 1–5h/week, 6–19h/week, and 20 or more h/week were 1.24 (99% CI: 0.85, 1.82), 1.83 (1.28, 2.61), and 2.78 (1.99, 3.87) for 8th graders, respectively. For 10th graders, this same association was attenuated [estimated OR=1.06 (99% CI: 0.96, 1.16); 1.20 (1.03, 1.40); and 1.30 (1.07, 1.58), respectively]. ConclusionsDrawing on a nationally representative sample of U.S. youth, we find a significant, dose–response relation between Internet use and binge drinking. This relation was stronger in 8th graders versus 10th graders. Given that alcohol is the most abused substance among adolescents and binge drinking confers many health risks, longitudinal studies designed to examine the mediators of this relation are necessary to inform binge drinking prevention strategies, which may have greater impact if targeted at younger adolescents.

Effects of parental monitoring on aggressive behavior among youth in the United States and South Korea: A cross-national study

ObjectiveThis cross-national study examined the direct and indirect effects of parental monitoring on aggressive behavior among separate samples of 10th grade youth in the US (N=3784) and South Korea (N=3079). MethodsData from two national probability studies—Monitoring the Future (MTF) for US youth and Korea Youth Panel Study (KYPS) for South Korean youth—were used. Both studies incorporated school-based, multi-stage, stratified, and randomized clustered sampling methods. ResultsPath analyses results indicated that while parental monitoring was directly and negatively related to aggressive behavior among US youth, it had no direct effect among South Korean youth. We also found significant indirect effects of parental monitoring on youth aggression through cigarette use, alcohol use, and self-esteem among both groups. Both US and South Korean youth who perceived increased monitoring from their parents reported less cigarette and alcohol use and higher self-esteem, which in turn reduced the likelihood of aggressive behavior. ConclusionsThis study serves as an example of conducting cross-national research using existing data to investigate significant issues related to youth well-being. Although there are cultural differences between US and South Korean youth, parental monitoring is still important in deterring both groups of youth from engaging in aggressive behavior.

NIDA survey of HS students: Marijuana use level, e‐cigarettes a concern

Even though teens were less likely to think frequent marijuana use was risky, there was no increase in use, according to the results from the current Monitoring the Future (MTF) survey, released every year by the federal government. “We haven't seen increases, which we were afraid of,” said Nora Volkow, M.D., director of the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA), which sponsors the study.

MTF survey: Marijuana use level, e‐cigarettes a concern

Even though teens were less likely to think frequent marijuana use was risky, there was no increase in use, according to the federal government's Monitoring the Future (MTF) survey released in December. “We haven't seen increases, which we were afraid of,” said Nora Volkow, M.D., director of the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA), which sponsors the study.

Examining Rural-Urban Obesity Trends among Youth in the U.S.: Testing the Socioeconomic Gradient Hypothesis

Adolescent obesity has increased three-fold in the U.S. during the last three decades. While this trend is well-known, relatively little is known about differences in obesity across the rural-urban continuum. This research addresses that gap by testing for such a relationship across time while accounting for variations in familial socioeconomic status. Using 1986-2004 Monitoring the Future (MTF) survey data, we estimate recent trends in rural-urban body weight, also testing for potential differences among the rural, small town, and urban high school seniors along socioeconomic gradients. Statistically significant differences disfavoring rural high school seniors in their BMI, their risk for the onset of obesity, and obesity itself over the past decade are identified, with significant interactions between demographics and parental education levels driving the largest disparities. These findings are rich and speak directly to the allocation of public health resources aimed at addressing issues associated with the adolescent obesity epidemic.

Rates of Substance Use of American Indian Students in 8th, 10th, and 12th Grades Living on or near Reservations: Update, 2009–2012

Understanding the similarities and differences between substance use rates for American Indian (AI) young people and young people nationally can better inform prevention and treatment efforts. We compared substance use rates for a large sample of AI students living on or near reservations for the years 2009-2012 with national prevalence rates from Monitoring the Future (MTF). We identified and sampled schools on or near AI reservations by region; 1,399 students in sampled schools were administered the American Drug and Alcohol Survey. We computed lifetime, annual, and last-month prevalence measures by grade and compared them with MTF results for the same time period. Prevalence rates for AI students were significantly higher than national rates for nearly all substances, especially for 8th graders. Rates of marijuana use were very high, with lifetime use higher than 50% for all grade groups. Other findings of interest included higher binge drinking rates and OxyContin(®) use for AI students. The results from this study demonstrate that adolescent substance use is still a major problem among reservation-based AI adolescent students, especially 8th graders, where prevalence rates were sometimes dramatically higher than MTF rates. Given the high rates of substance use-related problems on reservations, such as academic failure, delinquency, violent criminal behavior, suicidality, and alcohol-related mortality, the costs to members of this population and to society will continue to be much too high until a comprehensive understanding of the root causes of substance use are established.

O’Malley and Johnston Respond

We appreciate Acheampong et al.’s interest in and commendation of our article. The sample size for the data presented in Table 1 is provided in a note that says the number of respondents was approximately 2000 per year. Although this does not provide a precise number, it seems to us sufficiently informative for readers and reviewers. Tables 2 and 3 provide the precise numbers of cases involved in the four logistic regressions (n = 6161, 6155, 6111, 6107). The only exclusion criterion used for study respondents was that they had to provide data for the variables used. Although not stated explicitly, this seems obvious, given that we did not mention any imputation. We did not include participants from 10th grade because Monitoring the Future (MTF) does not ask 10th graders about driving after alcohol or drug use. It is certainly true that variables other than those included in Tables 2 and 3 may be associated with driving or riding after alcohol or drug use. We included those that we considered most relevant to the purposes of the article among the very large number of measures available in the MTF study. Parental alcohol consumption is not one of those, but peer consumption of alcohol is, along with peer consumption of a variety of other substances. Also available are measures of age, academic program, delinquency, vandalism, risk-taking, self-esteem, personal disapproval of substance use, public versus private school, and many others. We believe that the set of predictors we chose to include provided a very reasonable selection. We could have explored interactions, including those by race/ethnicity. Indeed, we have shown that race/ethnicity interacts with parental education and with religious commitment in associations with substance use.1–3 It is likely that race/ethnicity would interact with other variables as well, such as urbanicity. Other variables such as gender or hours worked per week might have interactions in associations with driving or riding. A thorough investigation of all possible or even likely interactions among the 12 independent variables in the logistic models would be beyond the scope of the article. (The article is at the Journal’s word count limit.) Use of a school-based sample clearly limits the sample to school students only (both public and private schools were included); home-schooled 12th graders and high school dropouts are not eligible and therefore the findings cannot be assumed to hold for those populations. The relevant population is high school seniors, and we were careful to make that clear throughout the article, including in the title.

News Is Mixed on Teenagers and Substance Use

News Is Mixed on Teenagers and Substance Use

Discrepancies in prevalence estimates in two national surveys for nonmedical use of a specific opioid product versus any prescription pain reliever

BackgroundThere is a growing need to understand trends in nonmedical use of prescription pain relievers as a class, as well as specific opioid products. Surveys such as monitoring the future (MTF) and the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) are important tools for understanding trends in abuse of prescription and illegal drugs. This report compares discrepancies in prevalence between these surveys for a specific opioid product (oxycodone) relative to other drugs. MethodsTrends in past-year use of marijuana, cocaine, and nonmedical use of oxycodone and any prescription pain reliever were estimated for each survey for a five year period (2005–2010) for adolescents in 12th grade. The proportion of nonmedical pain reliever users who abused oxycodone was estimated for each survey. ResultsPrevalence of past-year oxycodone nonmedical use was steady over time for both surveys, but 2.5–3 times higher in the MTF compared to the NSDUH. Trends in prevalence of marijuana and cocaine use were similar across surveys, although prevalence estimates for each were on average 18% higher in the MTF. In contrast, prevalence estimates for any nonmedical prescription pain reliever use were on average 15% lower in MTF. The proportion of nonmedical prescription pain reliever users who used oxycodone was 42% in the MTF versus 19% in the NSDUH. ConclusionThe discrepancy between surveys in prevalence estimates for nonmedical use of oxycodone exceed those for other drugs, pointing to the importance of visual aids and items used to measure the nonmedical use of specific products.

Leftover Prescription Opioids and Nonmedical Use Among High School Seniors: A Multi-Cohort National Study

To (1) estimate the proportion of nonmedical users of prescription opioids (i.e., used prescription opioids in the past year without a doctor's orders) who used leftover medications from their own previous prescriptions; (2) assess substance use behaviors as a function of diversion source; and (3) identify the sources for these prescribed opioids. We analyzed data collected via self-administered questionnaires from nationally representative samples of high school seniors (modal age, 18 years) as a part of the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study. The sample consisted of four cohorts (senior years of 2007-2010, n= 8,888), including 647 high school seniors who reported past-year nonmedical use of prescription opioids, of whom 53% were estimated to be women. An estimated 36.9% of past-year nonmedical users of prescription opioids obtained these opioid medications from their own previous prescriptions. Logistic regression analyses indicated that nonmedical users who used leftover medications from their previous prescriptions were primarily motivated to relieve physical pain, whereas nonmedical users who obtained medications from other sources had significantly higher odds of prescription opioid abuse and other substance use behaviors. Based on a subanalysis of nonmedical users who obtained prescription opioids from their previous prescriptions in 2010 (n= 51), approximately 27.1% obtained them from a dentist, 45.0% obtained them from an emergency room physician, and 38.3% obtained them from another physician. Leftover prescription opioids from previous prescriptions represent a major source of nonmedical use of prescription opioids among high school seniors. These findings indicate that enhanced vigilance is needed when prescribing and monitoring prescription opioids among adolescents, to reduce leftover medications and nonmedical use.

HIV/AIDS Risk Behaviors and Substance Use by Young Adults in the United States

The current research assessed the extent to which substance use behaviors (i.e., heavy episodic drinking, marijuana use, and use of illicit drugs other than marijuana) were associated with behaviors that confer risk for HIV infection (i.e., sex with multiple partners, inconsistent condom use, and injection drug use) in a nationally representative sample of young adults. Generalized estimating equations (GEEs) examined patterns in the data from U.S. young adults (N = 7,595), ages 21 to 30, who participated in the Monitoring the Future (MTF) panel study between 2004 and 2009. Fifty-two percent of the participants were female and 70% were White. Time-varying effects indicated that more frequent heavy episodic drinking, marijuana use, and other illicit drug use were associated with a greater number of sex partners. Frequency of marijuana and other illicit drug use was associated with less frequent condom use, and marijuana use was associated with use of injection drugs. Younger individuals (i.e., 21-24 years old versus 25-30 years old) had fewer sexual partners, more frequent condom use, and a stronger association between heavy episodic drinking and number of sexual partners than did older individuals. These effects did not vary across gender. Findings highlight the covariation of substance use with HIV-related risk factors among recent cohorts of young adults in the U. S. and the particularly strong link between heavy episodic drinking and number of sexual partners among individuals aged 21 to 24. Prevention programs should acknowledge the co-occurring risks of substance use and HIV risk behaviors, especially among young adults in their early twenties.

Co-ingestion of prescription opioids and other drugs among high school seniors: Results from a national study

BackgroundThe objective of this study was to determine the past-year prevalence rates and behavioral correlates of co-ingestion of prescription opioids and other drugs among high school seniors in the United States. MethodsNationally representative probability samples of high school seniors in the United States were surveyed as a part of the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study. Data were collected in schools via self-administered paper-and-pencil questionnaires during the spring of each cohort's senior year. The sample consisted of five cohorts (senior years of 2002–2006) made up of 12,441 high school seniors (modal age 18), of which 53% were women. ResultsThe estimated prevalence of any past-year co-ingestion of prescription opioids and other drugs for these cohorts was 4.4%, and 69.8% among nonmedical users of prescription opioids. The substances most commonly co-ingested with prescription opioids included marijuana (58.5%), alcohol (52.1%), cocaine (10.6%), tranquilizers (10.3%), and amphetamines (9.5%). Nonmedical users who co-ingested prescription opioids with other drugs were more likely to report intranasal administration, recreational motives, oxycodone use, and greater subjective high when using prescription opioids than nonmedical users who did not co-ingest prescription opioids and other drugs. ConclusionsNearly 7 out of every 10 nonmedical users of prescription opioids reported co-ingestion of prescription opioids and other drugs in the past year. The findings indicate that the co-ingestion of prescription opioids and other drugs by high school seniors in the United States serves as a marker for substance abuse and represents a significant public health concern.

No Pass No Drive: Education and Allocation of Time

Since the late 1980s, several states in the US have introduced No Pass No Drive (NPND) laws that set minimum academic requirements for teenagers under 18 to obtain a driving license. Using data from the U.S. Census and Monitoring the Future (MTF) survey, we exploit cross-state, cross-cohort and cross-time variation in NPND laws to study their effect on educational outcomes and allocation of time among teenagers.Estimates using the Census show that NPND laws have a positive and significant effect on both years of completed schooling and the probability of high school completion among boys and blacks, but not girls. Our results are robust with respect to several internal validity checks. Using the MTF, we show that NPND laws were effective in reducing truancy. We also find evidence of increased time allocated to school-work at the expense of leisure and employment activities.

Prescription drugs purchased through the internet: Who are the end users?

Although prescription drugs are readily available on the Internet, little is known about the prevalence of Internet use for the purchase of medications without a legitimate prescription, and the characteristics of those that obtain non-prescribed drugs through online sources. The scientific literature on this topic is limited to anecdotal reports or studies plagued by small sample sizes. Within this context, the focus of this paper is an examination of five national data sets from the U.S. with the purpose of estimating: (1) how common obtaining prescription medications from the Internet actually is, (2) who are the typical populations of “end users” of these non-prescribed medications, and (3) which drugs are being purchased without a prescription. Three of the data sets are drawn from the RADARS ® (Researched Abuse Diversion and Addiction-Related Surveillance) System, a comprehensive series of studies designed to collect timely and geographically specific data on the abuse and diversion of a number of prescription stimulants and opioid analgesics. The remaining data sets include the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) and the Monitoring the Future (MTF) survey. Our analysis yielded uniformly low rates of prescription drug acquisition from online sources across all five data systems we examined. The consistency of this finding across very diverse populations suggests that the Internet is a relatively minor source for illicit purchases of prescription medications by the individual end-users of these drugs.

Millennials and the World of Work: Experiences in Paid Work During Adolescence.

PURPOSE: This article considers some important questions faced by youth as they enter and adapt to paid work. We focus on two key questions: (1) how many hours should teenagers work during the school year and (2) what available jobs are desirable? DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: To help answer these questions, we review studies that have examined the effects of early work experiences on academic achievement, positive youth development, and health-risk behaviors. We also draw upon nationally representative data from the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study to illustrate some new findings on youth employment. FINDINGS: Moderate work hours, especially in jobs of higher-quality, are associated with a broad range of positive developmental outcomes. IMPLICATIONS: These questions are not only important to teenagers and their parents, they also reflect key debates among scholars in sociology, developmental psychology, and economics regarding the potential short- and long-term consequences of early work experiences for social development and socioeconomic achievement. ORIGINALITY/VALUE: Although work intensity is an important dimension of adolescent work experience, it is clearly not the only one and we argue that it may not even be the most important one. By focusing on types and qualities of jobs, more can be gained in terms of understanding for whom and under what conditions teenage work does provide benefits for and detriments to youth development.

Birth Cohort Differences in the Monitoring the Future Dataset and Elsewhere: Further Evidence for Generation Me—Commentary on Trzesniewski & Donnellan (2010)

A substantial majority of published studies have reported increases of individualism and materialism and declines in mental health and interpersonal trust over generations. The data Trzesniewski and Donnellan (2010, this issue) present from the Monitoring the Future (MTF) survey of high-school students is almost entirely consistent with these previous findings, showing decreases in civic interest and trust and increases in high expectations, materialism, and self-satisfaction. Problems with measurement and variable labeling explain the few seeming discrepancies. They analyze only 15% of the variables in MTF, ignoring many others that also demonstrate increases in individualistic traits. Ecological correlations are not an issue in previous studies as the individual-level standard deviation is used to compute effect sizes. Increases in narcissism are clear when important moderator variables (e.g., campus) are controlled. The real puzzle is why these authors’ conclusions fall so far from the data.

Table of Contents

AbstractNew York Advocates See Task Force Report as Call for Treating Troubled YouthsInsurance Companies Still Control Access to Treatment Via Medical ManagementNew Directions for SAMHSA Under Health Reform and HydeHow to Use the Monitoring the Future (MTF) Survey for 2009Highlights from the MTF Survey, 2009Briefly NotedState NewsCall for PresentationsComing up