Monetary Conditions Index Research Articles

The effect of fragmentation risk on monetary conditions in the euro area

This paper measures the output effects of financial fragmentation in the euro area by estimating an extended IS curve. Using a panel approach, we find that two fragmentation measures are significantly related to the output gap: sovereign spreads and spreads in the long-term cost of borrowing of the private sector. We use these output effects to construct a Monetary Conditions Index (MCI) for euro area countries. This index summarizes the combined effect of the monetary policy stance and financial fragmentation. We show that the MCI approach is well-suited to capture cross-country differences in a fragmentation-enhanced measure of the monetary policy stance. Using this metric, we find that during the sovereign debt crisis, the cross-country dispersion of MCI's based on sovereign spreads was much larger than that based on the private cost of borrowing. We also show that convergence is slower for MCI's based on sovereign spreads. We conclude that the causes of fragmentation in monetary conditions may change over time, and that this has implications for the appropriate policy response.

Monetary Condition Index: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

The study focuses on assessing the Monetary Condition Index (MCI) in Pakistan, which measures the tightness or easiness of the country's monetary policy. It analyzes the impacts of interest rates and exchange rates on inflation and GDP growth, using time series data from 1975 to 2020. Monetary Condition Index is calculated by using time series data, employing annual data set from 1975 to 2020. Two different methods are applied to find the weights of interest rate and exchange rate, the one is the Principal Component Analysis and the other is co-integration method employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model. The research aims to provide valuable insights for policymakers, planners, and economists to optimize monetary policies and understand the transmission mechanism in the economy. The study also explores the historical impacts of interest rates and exchange rates, with potential implications for other economies. The Monetary Condition Index is introduced as a useful policy locator and an indicator of the monetary policy stance. Additionally, the research seeks to validate the MCI's reliability as a policy indicator and address certain research gaps related to its effectiveness, dynamics, and generalizability. The study concluded that the MCI is sensitive to variations, and its calculation and methodology are essential. The monetary stance in Pakistan remained tight from 2017 to 2020, representing the highest trend in history. However, the effectiveness of using interest rate tools to control inflation in Pakistan was questioned, suggesting that changes in monetary policy tools might be necessary to achieve the objectives of the State Bank of Pakistan in line with Islamic economics principles.

New tourism financial condition index: extended with terrorist attacks

Purpose- In this study, a composite indicator that can be followed in the financial markets has been developed. The tourism financial conditions index has been developed in the literature for tourism based on MCI (Monetary Conditions Index) and FCI (Financial Conditions Index). The index is called the Tourism Financial Conditions Index in their studies. This study ensures that the calculation of the tourism index by adding the terror variable to the index can better reflect the expectations. Methodology- While constructing the composite indicator Z-score is used for standardization. With this standardization terrorist attacks variable is added to the composite indicator. The relationship between New Tourism Financial Composite Indicator and Tourism Stock Market Index Return is analyzed with the Threshold VAR method. This method is used because of the nonlinearity of variables. Findings: Monthly data for the period 2009:07 – 2017:12 were used in the study. The countries examined are Australia, Denmark, France, Italy, Spain, Türkiye and the UK. It is aimed to examine the relationship between the calculated NTFCI and the Tourism Stock Exchange data of each country. T-VAR results show the relationship between these variables. Conclusion - In this study, the new version of the TFCI index with terrorist incidents is presented. Chang (2015) developed the TFCI index for the tourism sector. We think that the countries should also consider the effect of terrorism in their economic and financial research in tourism area. Based on this idea, the index was expanded by adding the terror variable to the previously developed TFCI composite indicator and its relationship with the tourism stock market index as a financial indicator was examined. The TVAR model is applied which shows the short-term dynamic relationship. Models for different countries were estimated and similar results were obtained for different countries. Keywords: Tourism financial conditions index, tourism sector, monetary conditions index, financial conditions index JEL Codes: E44, E47, G32

An indicator of monetary bias for emerging and partially dollarized economies: The case of Uruguay

The instability of the relationships between interest rates, amount of money, and exchange rate, and the transmission problems between different interest rates hinder the measurement of monetary policy through a single variable. This difficulty is particularly relevant in emerging and partially dollarized economies. This paper proposes a multivariate indicator of monetary bias for these economies in which the monetary and financial variables are considered according to the impact they have on inflation. We use a Factor Augmented Vector AutoRegressive Moving Average model with eXogenous variables (FAVARMAX) to estimate these effects in the case of Uruguay. Using the evolution of Monetary Conditions Index (MCI) proposed, we characterize the policy adopted by the Central Bank of Uruguay between 2010–2019, a period of inflation targeting.

The Taylor Rule in Finance and Showing How the Monetary Conditions Index Is Used as a Guide for the Central Bank Policies

The Taylor Rule in Finance and Showing How the Monetary Conditions Index Is Used as a Guide for the Central Bank Policies

Monetary Conditions Index: A Composite Measure of Monetary Policy in Pakistan

Accurate measures of the size and direction of changes in monetary policy are very important. A number of variables/indicators have been used as a measure of the stance of monetary policy the world over. These include growth rates of monetary aggregates and credit aggregates, short-term interest rate as used by Sims (1992), index of minutes of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), as suggested by Friedman and Schwartz (1963) and reintroduced by Romer and Romer (1989), monetary policy index constructed by employing Vector Autoregression (VAR) estimation technique with prior information from Central Bank such as Bernanke and Blinder (1992) and Bernanke and Mihov (1998), and Monetary Conditions Index (MCI)—which is the focus of this paper—constructed by and used by Bank of Canada [Freedman (1995)], taking into consideration the interest rate and exchange rate channel of monetary policy transmission mechanism in a small open economy. In case of open economy it is assumed that the monetary policy affects the economy and the prime objective of monetary policy, rate of inflation, through two important transmission mechanisms. These transmission channels are; interest rate channel and exchange rate channel. The working of the first channel is that the interest rate influences the level of expenditures, investment and subsequently domestic demand. The change in official interest rate effects the market rates of interest both short term as well as long term interest rates. This change in market rates of interest is transmitted to the bank lending rates and saving rates. The change in saving rate effects the spending behaviour of individuals (consumption) whereas the change in bank lending rate effects the investment behaviour of firms (investment). The change in aggregate consumption and investment has direct link to the gross domestic product (GDP).

Monetary Conditions Index and Economic Activity in Dollarized Zimbabwe

Purpose: Zimbabwe has experienced a chronic inflationary crisis whose roots can be traced back to 1997. Various macroeconomic instruments have been suggested to stabilize the country’s prices and foster economic growth but evidence on how they interplay to influence policy is lacking. This study developed a monetary conditions index (MCI) for Zimbabwe during the 10-year dollarization period, 2009 to 2018, and measured its correlation with economic activity. The aim of the MCI is to inform monetary policy making in Zimbabwe. Design/methodology/approach: Using monthly time series data, the MCI series from 2009 to 2018 was calculated using real interest rates and exchange rates. The relationship between the MCI, GDP, inflation, money supply and private sector credit was analysed using the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model for the long-term relationship and Granger causality for the short term. Findings: Results showed MCI weights of 1:1.54 implying that exchange rates dominate the interest rate in Zimbabwe’s monetary policy. A long run relationship between the MCI and economic variables was statistically significant while short term relationships were established for private sector credit, GDP, and foreign interest rates. Research implications: The study concludes that the MCI is a useful indicator of the central bank’s monetary policy positionfor economic analysts while the central bank can also adopt it for inflation and growth targeting. Originality/value: Unlike previous research which has proffered monetary solutions based on specific variables, this study took into consideration the interplay between interest rates and exchange rates in determining economic activity in Zimbabwe. The constructed MCI captured the interplay between these two key variables and the study established its relationship with economic activity. On this basis, the study recommends the adoption of the MCI in guiding monetary policy in Zimbabwe.

Measuring Monetary Policy in Emerging Economy: The Role of Monetary Condition Index

Measuring Monetary Policy in Emerging Economy: The Role of Monetary Condition Index

Estimating Natural Rate of Interest and Equilibrium Exchange Rate: A Case of the Czech Republic

Abstract Article deals with estimating real natural interest rate and exchange rate to construct monetary conditions index suitable for the Czech open economy. Despite unobservable characteristics of underlying interest rates and exchange rate, the importance of reference indicators for monetary policy is crucial. Proposed monetary condition index in gap form examines monetary impulse on economic and credit cycle in inflation targeting model.

Koordynacja polityki fiskalnej i monetarnej w strefie euro przed kryzysem i po kryzysie

Znaczenie koordynacji polityki fiskalnej i monetarnej istotnie wzrosło po kryzysie z końca pierwszej dekady XXI w. Osiągnięcie skoordynowanych działań, zarówno w aspekcie koordynacji narodowych polityk fiskalnych, jak i w zakresie fiskalno-monetarnym, miał wspomóc szereg wprowadzonych reform od 2011 r. Celem niniejszego artykułu jest analiza koordynacji polityk fiskalnych państw członkowskich strefy euro oraz ich zagregowanego nastawienia z polityką pieniężną Europejskiego Banku Centralnego w dwóch okresach badawczych rozdzielonych najważniejszymi reformami. Analiza obejmuje lata 1999–2018. Ten przedział czasowy został podzielony na dwa podokresy: 1999–2010 i 2011–2018. Do analizy koordynacji nastawienia fiskalnego krajów strefy euro posłużono się indeksem restrykcyjności fiskalnej (FCI) i współczynnikiem korelacji. Zagregowane nastawienie polityk fiskalnych oraz polityki monetarnej, oszacowane za pomocą indeksu warunków pieniężnych (MCI), przedstawiono na mapie restrykcyjności (policy mix). Ponadto oszacowano związek indeksu policy mix (PMI) z luką produktową. Koordynacja narodowych polityk fiskalnych okazała się silniejsza w drugim analizowanym okresie. Niemniej jednak analiza koordynacji fiskalno-monetarnej nie pozwala na wyciągnięcie jednoznacznych wniosków. Policy mix w pierwszym analizowanym okresie miała charakter antycykliczny, natomiast w drugim – procykliczny. Wciąż istnieje pilna potrzeba dalszej poprawy zarządzania gospodarczego w strefie euro.

Conditions Monetaires Et Croissance Economique En Zone Cemac

The objective of this study is to track the monetary policy stance in CEMAC zone with GDP as target variable using a real size. The construction of reel monetary condition index use heterogeneous macropanels VAR approach with individual specification proposed par Fabio and al (2013). The inter-individual cointégration test confirm the long term relationship between GDP, real short run interest rate, real effective exchange rate and credit to economy making possible the combination of those instruments to forecast growth. But the result of intraindividual cointegration remains lukewarm compromising the possibility to combine the instruments above-mentioned in a single synthetic indicator for each country in CEMAC zone. The estimation of model parameters has been done through pooled mean group in Blackburn and Fran (2007) way. The construction of real ICM uses Canada Bank approach. One finds that real ICM is determined mainly by real effective exchange rate, then credit to economy and lastly the real short run interest rate. The construction of ICM must be included among the large range of indicators used by central bank to forecast growth in CEMAC zone.

Inflation Dynamics In A Small Developing Economy: An Empirical Analysis for Ghana

Monetary policy over the data period is aimed at sustaining the growth in the money supply achieved through a tight monetary policy stance, thereby ensuring price and exchange rate stability. This paper aims to empirically examine the share of exchange rate pass-through and local monetary targets in explaining inflation dynamics in Ghana. Annual data is obtained from International Financial Statistics, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and Bank of Ghana’s Annual Reports. The aggregate time series used in the estimation are money (broad money supply, M2, defined as currency plus demand, time and savings deposits held by the public), real income per capita, and the real effective exchange rate. The UK consumer Price index is used as a proxy for the foreign price level since the UK has been Ghana’s largest trading partner over much of the data period. The Treasury bill rate is used as the domestic nominal rate of interest. The Consumer Price Index measures the domestic price level. Using Pesaran, Shin and Smith’s bounds testing approach to cointegration and an error correction model, the paper finds empirical evidence for both short and long run inflationary consequences from changes in monetary factors. The results indicate that changes in money supply, real effective exchange rate, nominal interest rate, real income per capita and foreign prices have a significant influence on the behavior and path of inflation in the long run. However, the short-run dynamics based on an error correction model shows that money supply has no significant impact on the rate of inflation. While real effective exchange rate and nominal interest rate have significant effects, the main driving force behind domestic inflation in the short-run appears to be import prices and real income per capita. The findings highlight the need for an alternative operational target such as the monetary conditions index or an explicit inflation-targeting framework to improve policy credibility.

Monetary condition index and its changing transmission on macro-economic variables

It has been known with time that no single transmission mechanism is enough to understand the monetary policy stance of that country. The objective of this paper is combine two transmission channel, interest rate and exchange rate so as to construct monetary condition index (MCI) for the gulf countries, namely Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, so as to forecast its impact on CPI and GDP and to suggest policymakers regarding the monetary policy of the gulf countries. For this purpose, the paper applies Principal Component Analysis and Vector Auto-Regression method to construct MCI and to analyze its impulse response on CPI and GDP. This paper concludes that MCI can be used as an indicator to predict CPI and GDP of Bahrain and Qatar in long run and as an indicator to predict the GDP of Oman in medium and long run but it cannot be used as an indicator to predict CPI and GDP of Kuwait and KSA. Furthermore, this paper also concludes that strong monetary policy is needed to strengthen their economic condition.

Index of Monetary Conditions in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Abstract The main goal of the research was measuring of the monetary conditions in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH). By using multiple linear regression, Monetary Conditions Index (MCI) is constructed for the first time for BH. Monetary conditions are measured in relation to the industrial production. Monetary conditions in BH compared to the period before the beginning of the global economic crisis have been improved. Both MCIs show significant improvement in the monetary conditions measured by the movement of interest rates, real effective exchange rate and credit growth. The highest interdependence in the movement with the growth rate of industrial production shows MCI constructed on the basis of the implicit active interest rate (as an approximation for the domestic reference interest rate, i.e. a channel of interest rates) and the rate of credit growth. The interest rate channel in BH is not dominant in relation to the exchange rate channel. The reason is the lack of the central bank loan and therefore the absence of the reference interest rates. MCI ratio (ratio between coefficient with implicit active interest rate and coefficient with REER) is 1.09. By this research the benchmark values of MCI for BH are set. Established MCI is starting point for further measurement of monetary conditions in BH. .

A UK financial conditions index using targeted data reduction: Forecasting and structural identification

A financial conditions index (FCI) is designed to summarise the state of financial markets. Two are constructed with UK data. The first is the first principal component of a set of financial indicators. The second comes from a new approach taking information from a large set of macroeconomic variables weighted by the joint covariance with a subset of the financial indicators (a set of spreads), using multivariate partial least squares, again using the first factor. The resulting FCIs are broadly similar. They both have some forecasting power for monthly GDP in a quasi-real-time recursive evaluation from 2011 to 2014 and outperform an FCI produced by Goldman Sachs. A second factor, that may be interpreted as a monetary conditions index, adds further forecast power, while third factors have a mixed effect on performance. The FCIs are used to improve identification of credit supply shocks in an SVAR. The main effects relative to an SVAR excluding an FCI of the (adverse) credit shock IRFs are to make the positive impact on inflation more precise and to reveal an increased positive impact on spreads.

A Monetary Conditions Index and its Application on Tunisian Economic Forecasting

Abstract. The purpose of this paper is to find out the extent of the influence of internal and external monetary conditions on Tunisian macroeconomic aggregates by constructing a synthetic index. We seek to contribute to the empirical literature in the following ways. First, we calculate the weights assigned to domestic interest rate and the exchange rate based on the estimated coefficients respectively for these two dimensions over the period 1965-2015. Second, by employing a VAR model approach, we confirm the long-run dynamic between the considered variables. The analysis of shocks indicates that monetary conditions have a particular importance through their effects on economic activity and inflation. The latter is characterized by its significant negative influence on economic growth and by its contribution in linking between internal and external interest rates. Third, we use a SVAR model approach for analyzing the short-run structural dynamics between the variables. Our findings reveal that the Tunisian economy is significantly influenced by external monetary conditions. This extensive influence is confirmed through the dynamics of structural monetary policy shocks and exchange rate. Overall, our study finds that the exchange rate plays an increasing role in transmitting the monetary policy effect to the inflation rate and thus the real economy. Keywords. Monetary conditions index, SVAR approach, Structural monetary shocks. JEL. E43, E51, E52.

Dollar’s Rials Injected into Iran’s Economy

Nowadays awareness about monetary conditions is really important for economic agents. Monetary conditions index is a significant indicator in regards of central bank’s monetary policies so that it shows the expansion and contraction of monetary policies. In order to investigate the Dollar’s Rials injected into Iran economy we have applied the MCI. Actually change in real interest rate and real exchange rate to the base year are considered while positive changes in MCI indicate a contraction monetary policy and negative changes indicate an expansion monetary policy. According to our findings, application of monetary policy in Iran is severely affected by changes in foreign exchange incomes as a result of increase in oil price. Therefore, the government’s expenditures should be adjusted based on inflation and stagnation gap. Considering the lack of real data, in this study it is tried to calculate the monetary conditions index for Iran’s economy using annual time series data and Johansen-Juselius convergence method over the period 2008-1987. In fact the expansion and contraction monetary policy implemented by central bank are separated and results show that the government’s monetary policy was contractile in the years 1987, 1989, 1991, 1992, 1995, 1999, 2000, 2003, 2005. It means that there was no Dollar’s Rials injection into economy. About the other years monetary policy was expansionary and Dollar’s Rials has been injected into economy for twenty years.

Does Monetary Policy Action Have Significant Impact on the Real Economy? A Critical Look at the Aggregate Demand Function for Ghana

This paper examines the impact of monetary policy on real economic activities using a modified open-economy New Keynesian aggregate demand function for Ghana over the period 2000Q1-2016Q4. Our analysis shows that all the determinants of aggregate demand have the expected theoretical signs. We observed that tighter monetary policy dampens economic activities in Ghana, as the elasticity of domestic output gap to changes in real monetary condition index – which is a combination of real exchange rate and interest rate gaps - were all negative and significant. The results also show that lag and lead domestic output gap, foreign output gap and structural fiscal gap have positive impact on current output gap. In particular, the weight of real exchange rate in the output gap equation appears to outweigh that of real interest rate and lagged output gap in the case of Ghana. This accentuates the relevance of real exchange rate in Ghana's monetary policy transmission mechanism.

Exploring Performance of Monetary Condition Index (MCI) In Post-Liberalization Period of Indian Economy

Exploring Performance of Monetary Condition Index (MCI) In Post-Liberalization Period of Indian Economy

Broad Money Supply and Financial Condition Index for Indian Economy

In the context of recent global financial crisis, the impact of exogenous shock to the financial sector on the real sector of the economy has come to the notice of the economists all over the world. The traditional dichotomy between financial and real sector is found to be inadequate for either managing or predicting the economy's overall behavior. In view of this recent development, this paper makes an attempt to construct a Financial Condition Index (FCI) in the context of Indian economy, to explore the possibility of how such an index would be an improvement over the traditional Monetary Condition Index (MCI), which has been the central bank's main instrument. The FCI is constructed by incorporating broad money supply along with real interest rate and official exchange rate. Following a weighted sum approach, the index is constructed by taking into consideration macroeconomic data over two decades of time period. The FCI, thus constructed, shows a significant co-relationship with the variability economy's inflation rate, revealing its usefulness as an indicator for early warning system for Indian economy.