Modern Climate Research Articles

The impact of climate change on morphological patterns of river floodplains in cryolithozone

Fluvial processes are highly variable and their dynamics under the influence of modern climate change are of both scientific and practical interest. The present work is an attempt to assess the impact of the modern climate change on the morphological pattern development in cryolithozone flood plains using modelling based on the methods of mathematical morphology of landscapes. The flood plains are territories of free channel meandering with topography formed by fluvial processes at different stages of development; so they represent a complex “patchwork” landscape morphological pattern occurring in the dynamic balance state. Our research involves fragments of the flood plains, for which there were two survey dates with a fairly large interval between them (about 50 years). As a climate change characteristic, the trends of surface air temperature anomalies for the same period (1956—2019) were calculated. An analysis of the calculated trends in surface temperature anomalies showed their heterogeneity both by seasons and by location, with a steady increase in surface temperature in general over the studied period. For all key sites, the mathematical model of the landscape morphological pattern of alluvial plains was tested. The analysis shows the correspondence of empirical data to theoretical ones, which allows us to obtain the model parameters to assess the change in the morphological pattern under the influence of climate change. It was suggested that climate change may lead to a change of the parameters of the corresponding distribution for the model variables due to the violation of dynamic balance. This statement was tested using the Smirnov test for two independent samples. The study of the relationship between distribution parameters and temperature trends includes assessing the correlation between them. Our analysis showed that the influence of modern temperature changes on the development of the morphological pattern of the flood plains over the past 40–50 years is manifested in a change of the distribution parameters for the forming flood plain segments, but it is not significant enough to change greatly the statistical distributions in the mathematical model of the morphological pattern of floodplains in general.

Pigments in Cores of Bottom Sediment as Indicators of the Trophic Status Dynamics in the Benthal of a Large Reservoir

New data on the dynamics of pigment characteristics for different silts in the basin-valley Rybinsk Reservoir, the largest source of fresh water on the Upper Volga, are presented. The concept of eutrophication of the reservoir under modern climate warming is supplemented. The content of pigments in bottom sediment cores taken after 10 years (in 2009 and 2019) was compared. According to the latest survey, the average content of chlorophyll a with pheopigments in cores at the stations is characterized by higher values, and the carotenoid/chlorophyll ratio (index Е 480 /Е 665 ) is lower than according to the first survey. The relationship between the index Е 480 /Е 665 and the total content of chlorophyll a and pheopigments in cores from most stations is negative, as in phytoplankton. In the total array of studied sediment samples, the contribution of pigment concentrations (chlorophyll a + pheopigments) belonging to the hypertrophic category is increased. The average content of sedimentary pigments in lake-like areas increased compared to riverine areas. The dynamics of pigments is clearly expressed in cores of gray clayey silt and smoothed in peat–originated silt. Over the period from 2009 to 2019, the average contribution of autochthonous organic carbon, estimated from the sum of chlorophyll and pheopigments, increased from 7.7% to 12.3% of total organic carbon in cores. The trends of the pigment concentrations in cores indicate an increase in the trophic state of benthal to date. The significance of the pigment characteristics of bottom sediments for monitoring the benthal productivity over the entire period of reservoir operation is discussed.

Classifying Climate‐Suitable Lands in California for Coffee Cultivation

ABSTRACTIncreased market for specialty coffee and climate volatility in traditional coffee‐growing regions of the world has prompted interest in cultivating coffee outside of the tropics, including in California. While several small coffee farms have established in California over the past couple decade, no studies have identified and quantified climatically suitable regions for growing coffee. We developed a model of Coffea arabica suitability based on agronomic studies of thermal constraints to coffee cultivation, combining heat and cold intolerance with energy requirements for maturation. This model was applied to agricultural lands across California using high‐resolution climate datasets for both modern (1991–2020) and projected near‐term (2021–2050) conditions. We explored the potential for farm thermal management approaches—such as using agroforestry shade trees—to buffer temperature extremes and augment thermal suitability. Results indicate that, in the absence of thermal management approaches, nearly all agricultural lands in the state experience temperature extremes detrimental to coffee cultivation in modern climate. By contrast, we found that over 230 km2 of agricultural land in coastal southern and central California is thermally suitable for coffee with management efforts. These suitable areas include most of the state's avocado cultivation—which may serve as a thermal buffer for coffee and favour the environmental and economic agricultural sustainability of this coupled crop system. We additionally show that projected near‐term climate coupled with management efforts leads to moderate increases in thermally suitable agricultural lands for coffee cultivation. Despite numerous economic and logistical challenges, that impede the growth of a burgeoning coffee region in coastal, southern and central California, we demonstrate that climate conditions in both today and in the future, combined with agronomic management efforts such as shading, provide an opportunity for a viable coffee production in California.

A global Data Assimilation of Moisture Patterns from 21 000–0 BP (DAMP-21ka) using lake level proxy records

Abstract. Global hydroclimate significantly differed from modern climate during the mid-Holocene (6 ka) and Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka). Consequently, both periods have been described as either a partial or reverse analogue for current climate change. To reconstruct past hydroclimate, an offline paleoclimate data assimilation methodology is applied to a dataset of 216 lake status records which provide relative estimates of water level change. The proxy observations are integrated with the climate dynamics of two transient simulations (TraCE-21ka and HadCM3) using a multivariate proxy system model (PSM) which estimates relative lake status from available climate simulation variables. The resulting DAMP-21ka (Data Assimilation of Moisture Patterns 21 000–0 BP) reanalysis reconstructs annual lake status and precipitation values at 500-year resolution and represents the first application of the methodology to global hydroclimate on timescales spanning the Holocene and longer. Validation using Pearson's correlation coefficients indicates that the reconstruction (0.24) is more skillful, on average, than model simulations (0.09), particularly in portions of North America and east Africa, where data density is high and proxy–model disagreement is prominent during the Holocene. Results of the PSM and assimilation are used to evaluate climatic controls on lake status, spatiotemporal patterns of moisture variability, and proxy–model disagreement. During the mid-Holocene, wetter conditions are reconstructed for northern and eastern Africa, Asia, and southern Australia, but in contrast to the model prior, negative anomalies are observed in North America, resulting in drier-than-modern conditions throughout the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. Proxy–model disagreement in western North America may reflect a bias in model simulations to stronger sea level pressure gradients in the North Pacific during the mid-Holocene. The data assimilation framework is able to reconcile these differences by integrating the constraints of proxy observations with the dynamics of the model prior to produce a more robust estimation of hydroclimate variability during the past 21 000 years.

The Role of Sea Ice Insulation Effects on the Probability of AMOC Transitions

Abstract Recent simulations performed with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) have suggested a crucial role of sea ice processes in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) hysteresis behavior under varying surface freshwater forcing. Here, we further investigate this issue using additional CESM simulations and a novel conceptual ocean–sea ice box model. The CESM simulations suggest that the presence of sea ice gives rise to the existence of statistical equilibria with a weak AMOC strength. This is confirmed in the conceptual model, which captures similar AMOC hysteresis behavior as in the CESM simulation and where steady states are computed versus freshwater forcing parameters. In the conceptual model, transition probabilities between the different equilibrium states are determined using rare event techniques. The transition probabilities from a strong AMOC state to a weak AMOC state increase when considering sea ice insulation effects and indicate that sea ice promotes these transitions. On the other hand, sea ice insulation effects strongly reduce the probabilities of the reverse transition from a weak AMOC state to a strong AMOC state and this implies that sea ice also limits AMOC recovery. The results here indicate that sea ice effects play a dominant role in AMOC hysteresis width and influence transition probabilities between the different equilibrium states. Significance Statement We develop a novel conceptual ocean–sea ice box model to explain AMOC hysteresis behavior recently found in a modern complex climate model (the Community Earth System Model) and determine how sea ice insulation effects influence the hysteresis width and the probability of AMOC transitions.

Resolving the Ubiquitous Small-Scale Semipermanent Features of the General Ocean Circulation: A Multiplatform Observational Approach

Abstract Based on 20 years of Argo and ship/animal-borne/glider hydrographic profile data, we derive a new high-resolution hydrographic Atlas and associated circulation field for the oceans above 2000 dbar. Satellite altimetric observations are used to explicitly regress out eddy noise in the fit, greatly reducing one of the major sources of noise. Geostrophic shears are found from the fitted geopotential anomaly fields. Ekman velocities are estimated using satellite wind stresses. Both Argo trajectory observations at 1000 dbar and surface drifter observations are used to reference geostrophic shears derived from the Atlas hydrography. Surface drifter velocities are analyzed with an additional wind friction term to remove the wind-related flow. Agreement between the surface geostrophic (referenced to Argo trajectories) and drifter-based surface velocity is high at both large scales and mesoscales, lending confidence to the derived geostrophic circulation fields. The Atlas reveals standing mesoscale eddies and meanders in western boundary systems and the braided jet structure of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. In the interior, the upper-ocean flow consists of a highly baroclinic large-scale Sverdrup flow and smaller-scale (∼200-km width) semizonal jets, which are more barotropic (low vertical shear) and have an average zonal width of around 5000 km. These semizonal jets are globally ubiquitous—found in all basins pole to pole. The many permanent mesoscale features of the mean general circulation contrast with that predicted by theories of the large-scale flow in simplified flat-bottomed domains. The Atlas presents a new opportunity to benchmark modern high-resolution ocean and climate models. Significance Statement This study exploits the radical increase in the number of observations of the ocean vertical structure in the past 20 years due to the use of robotic profilers. Combined with satellite observations, this much larger data coverage allows us to uncover the structure of the mean (or time average) ocean and its flow at much smaller horizontal length scales than in the past, like going from a blurry view to a clear one. In this new view, we find small permanent eddies and meanders of major ocean flows and jets around islands and through bathymetric constrictions. We also find ubiquitous semizonal striations throughout the global ocean interior. In the past, these were only seen at the surface, but we now show they reach down to at least 2000 m and comprise a significant part of the ocean’s mean flow field. These features are likely important to how the ocean mixes heat and other important quantities such as oxygen and carbon around Earth.

Duration of Climate Cycles during the Last Millions of Years and Hundreds of Thousands of Years and Modern Climate Anomalies

Duration of Climate Cycles during the Last Millions of Years and Hundreds of Thousands of Years and Modern Climate Anomalies

Simulation of modern and future climate by INM-CM6M

Abstract The paper considers the results of climate change modelling for 1850–2100 using the INM-CM6M climate model of the Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The calculations were performed according to the CMIP6 protocol for modelling the present-day climate for the period from 1850 to 2014 and the IPCC scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 of anthropogenic forcing changes in 2015–2100. We analyse changes in such characteristics of the climate system as global mean near-surface temperature, spatial distributions of near-surface temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure, and radiative forcing characteristics in comparison with observational data and results obtained with the previous (INM-CM5) version of the model. We conclude that the new version of the model is superior to the previous one in terms of the quality of simulation of the observed climate and its changes in 1960–2022. The amplitude of global warming predicted by the INM-CM6M for moderate IPCC scenarios is close to the average value of the CMIP6 model ensemble, and for severe scenarios it is closer to the upper limit of its range. For the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, INM-CM6M predicts a complete loss of Arctic sea ice in summer. As the rate of global warming increases, so does the amplitude and duration of extreme weather and climate events.

Modern Climate Changes in the Selenga Mid-mountain Region and their Reflection in Rivers Runnow and Tree Ring Chronologies

Based on data from 7 meteorological stations, the main parameters (surface air temperature, precipitation, aridity and humidification indices) characterizing climate trends for 1950–2021 were considered on the territory of the Selenga midlands (The Republic of Buryatia), and their influence on river flow and radial growth of Scots pine. A significant increase in surface air temperature is shown, occurring with a high degree of consistency at different weather stations. The average value of the linear trend for the territory for the general period was 2.1°C. The most intense increase in temperature and increase in the frequency of above-zero anomalies has been observed in the last 11 years (2011–2021). In the precipitation regime during the study period, two complete moistening cycles were identified (1961–1981 and 1982–2018) lasting 21 and 37 years. Currently, there is a humid phase, which began in 2019. An increase in temperature leads to increased aridity of the region, which is especially noticeable during the arid phases. The cyclicity characteristic of the precipitation regime is also manifested in long-term changes in river flow. The river’s water flows are most dependent on precipitation. Selenga. However, the synchronicity of their changes is not observed throughout the entire time series. In the precipitation regime, the phase of reduced moisture at the beginning of the 21st century is not as clearly expressed as in the runoff regime. The same differences were revealed in the flow regime of different rivers, which is due to the location of their catchment areas. The watersheds of only two rivers — Dzhida and Orongoy — are located entirely in the Selenga midlands. Most of the catchments of the Selenga and Chikoy rivers are located outside the study area. This circumstance determines to a large extent the good consistency of long-term changes in the water flows of these rivers and the differences from the river flow regime. Orongoya and especially r. Jids. The dynamics of the width of the annual rings of Scots pine trees growing in the Selenga midlands reflects changes in its hydrothermal regime during the current and previous growing seasons. The influence of atmospheric precipitation is pronounced, so the amount of precipitation for May–June explains about 40% of the increase for the residual (without autocorrelation component) tree-ring chronology.

Political economy analysis of the dissemination and use of seasonal weather forecasts and services in Zimbabwe

Weather and climate services are essential tools that help farmers make informed choices, such as choosing appropriate crop varieties. These services depend considerably on the availability of adequate investments in infrastructure related to weather forecasting, which are often provided by the State in most countries. Zimbabwean farmers generally have limited access to modern weather and climate services. While extensive attempts have been made to investigate farmers’ socioeconomic factors that influence access to and use of weather and climate services, comparative political economy analysis of weather and climate service production and use is limited. To address this knowledge gap, this study examines the production, dissemination, and usage of modern seasonal weather services through a political economy analysis perspective. The findings of this study highlight considerable discrepancies in access and use of seasonal weather forecasts between male and female farmers, those who practise African Traditional Religions versus Christians, and the minority group (Ndau tribe) and the majority group (Manyika tribe). This result suggested the presence of social marginalization. For example, minority Ndau members living in remote areas with limited radio signals and a weak mobile network have limited access to modern seasonal weather forecasts, forcing them to rely much more on indigenous weather forecasts. Further, due to unequal power relations, a greater proportion of male farmers participated in agricultural policy formation processes than their female counterparts. To promote inclusive development and implementation, deliberate efforts need to be made by State authorities to incorporate adherents of African traditional religions, members of minority tribes and female farmers in agricultural policymaking processes, including seasonal weather forecast delivery policies. Further, the study suggests the relaxation or elimination of international sanctions on Zimbabwe by the European Union, United Kingdom and the United States of America, given that they are considerably affecting marginalized groups of farmers in their climate change adaptation practices, including the use of modern weather and climate services. The vast majority of these marginalized farmers never benefitted from the land reform programme and were also not responsible for the design and implementation of this programme which triggered these sanctions.

The Indo–Pacific Pollen Database – a Neotoma constituent database

Abstract. The Indo–Pacific Pollen Database (IPPD) is the brainchild of the late professor Geoffrey Hope, who gathered pollen records from across the region to ensure their preservation for future generations of palaeoecologists. This noble aim is now being fulfilled by integrating the IPPD into the online Neotoma Paleoecology Database, making this compilation available for public use. Here we explore the database in depth and suggest directions for future research. The IPPD comprises 226 fossil pollen records, most postdating 20 ka but with some extending as far back as 50 ka or further. Over 80 % of the records are Australian, with a fairly even distribution between the different Australian geographical regions, with the notable exception being Western Australia, which is only represented by three records. The records are also well distributed in the modern climate space, with the largest gap being in drier regions due to preservation issues. However, many of the records contain few samples or have fewer than five chronology control points, such as radiocarbon, luminescence or Pb-210, for the younger sequences. Average deposition time for the whole database, counted as years per centimetre, is 64.8 yr cm−1, with 61 % of the records having a deposition time shorter than 50 yr cm−1. The slowest deposition time by geographical region occurs on Australia's east coast, while the fastest times are from the western Pacific. Overall, Australia has a slower deposition time than the rest of the Indo–Pacific region. The IPPD offers many exciting research opportunities to investigate past regional vegetation changes and associated drivers, including contrasting the impact of the first human arrival and European colonisation on vegetation. Examining spatiotemporal patterns of diversity and compositional turnover/rate of change, land cover reconstructions, and plant functional or trait diversity are other avenues of potential research, amongst many others. Merging the IPPD into Neotoma also facilitates inclusion of data from the Indo–Pacific region into global syntheses.

A protocol for model intercomparison of impacts of marine cloud brightening climate intervention

Abstract. A modeling protocol (defined by a series of climate model simulations with specified model output) is introduced. Studies using these simulations are designed to improve the understanding of climate impacts using a strategy for climate intervention (CI) known as marine cloud brightening (MCB) in specific regions; therefore, the protocol is called MCB-REG (where REG stands for region). The model simulations are not intended to assess consequences of a realistic MCB deployment intended to achieve specific climate targets but instead to expose responses to interventions in six regions with pervasive cloud systems that are often considered candidates for such a deployment. A calibration step involving simulations with fixed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is first used to identify a common forcing, and then coupled simulations with forcing in individual regions and combinations of regions are used to examine climate impacts. Synthetic estimates constructed by superposing responses from simulations with forcing in individual regions are considered a means of approximating the climate impacts produced when MCB interventions are introduced in multiple regions. A few results comparing simulations from three modern climate models (CESM2, E3SMv2, and UKESM1) are used to illustrate the similarities and differences between model behavior and the utility of estimates of MCB climate responses that were synthesized by summing responses introduced in individual regions. Cloud responses to aerosol injections differ substantially between models (CESM2 clouds appear much more susceptible to aerosol emissions than the other models), but patterns in precipitation and surface temperature responses were similar when forcing is imposed with similar amplitudes in the same regions. A previously identified La Niña-like response to forcing introduced in the Southeast Pacific is evident in this study, but the amplitude of the response was shown to markedly differ across the three models. Other common response patterns were also found and are discussed. Forcing in the Southeast Atlantic consistently (across all three models) produces weaker global cooling than that in other regions, and the Southeast Pacific and South Pacific show the strongest cooling. This indicates that the efficiency of a given intervention depends on not only the susceptibility of the clouds to aerosol perturbations, but also the strength of the underlying radiative feedbacks and ocean responses operating within each region. These responses were generally robust across models, but more studies and an examination of responses with ensembles would be beneficial.

Rainmaking: Observed with social systems theory

AbstractThis article examines contemporary efforts to control climate change through the lens of social systems theory, particularly by drawing comparisons to rain dances and shamanic rituals. It argues that modern climate control strategies bear functional similarities to archaic rituals aimed at influencing weather patterns, despite the absence of direct causality. Using Niklas Luhmann's concepts of autopoietic systems and functional equivalence, the article demonstrates that both historical and contemporary approaches to climate influence rely on blame‐shifting mechanisms and the social production of scapegoats, with failure often attributed not to the rituals or solutions themselves but to noncompliance or impurity among participants. The originality of this article lies in its application of social systems theory to link contemporary climate control strategies with ancient rituals, positioning them as functionally equivalent social phenomena. By drawing comparisons between shamanistic practices, corporate consulting, and global climate governance, the article provides a unique lens for understanding that the primary function of modern climate efforts may be to regulate social behaviour rather than achieving concrete natural environmental outcomes.

Changes in duration and intensity of waves of heat and cold on the territory of Belarus over the period from 1955 to 2021

The impact of modern climate warming on the characteristics of heat and cold waves on the territory of Belarus has been analysed. Since 1988, the number of heat waves and strong thaws has significantly increased (less than 15% of all registered heat waves and strong thaws occurred in the pre-warming period of 1955–1987), while the number of frost and summer cold waves has decreased. The average duration of frost and summer cold waves has decreased by 0.5–1.5 days, the average duration of strong thaws has increased by 1 day, while the changes in the duration of heat waves have been less significant. The greatest changes in temperature have been observed for strong thaws and frost waves (increase of up to 0.8°C). Heat waves are characterized by a decrease in the average duration by 1 day and the smallest temperature changes, because due to increase in average values, summer temperatures got closer to thresholds for a heat wave. Despite the effect of modern warming, frost waves remain the most intense type of extreme temperature episodes in Belarus. The spatial distribution of temperatures during heat and cold waves is either uniform or determined by seasonal temperature gradients.

The Micropaleoecology Framework: Evaluating Biotic Responses to Global Change Through Paleoproxy, Microfossil, and Ecological Data Integration.

The microfossil record contains abundant, diverse, and well-preserved fossils spanning multiple trophic levels from primary producers to apex predators. In addition, microfossils often constitute and are preserved in high abundances alongside continuous high-resolution geochemical proxy records. These characteristics mean that microfossils can provide valuable context for understanding the modern climate and biodiversity crises by allowing for the interrogation of spatiotemporal scales well beyond what is available in neo-ecological research. Here, we formalize a research framework of "micropaleoecology," which builds on a holistic understanding of global change from the environment to ecosystem level. Location: Global. Time period: Neoproterozoic-Phanerozoic. Taxa studied: Fossilizing organisms/molecules. Our framework seeks to integrate geochemical proxy records with microfossil records and metrics, and draws on mechanistic models and systems-level statistical analyses to integrate disparate records. Using multiple proxies and mechanistic mathematical frameworks extends analysis beyond traditional correlation-based studies of paleoecological associations and builds a greater understanding of past ecosystem dynamics. The goal of micropaleoecology is to investigate how environmental changes impact the component and emergent properties of ecosystems through the integration of multi-trophic level body fossil records (primarily using microfossils, and incorporating additional macrofossil data where possible) with contemporaneous environmental (biogeochemical, geochemical, and sedimentological) records. Micropaleoecology, with its focus on integrating ecological metrics within the context of paleontological records, facilitates a deeper understanding of the response of ecosystems across time and space to better prepare for a future Earth under threat from anthropogenic climate change.

The VII International Field Symposium was held in Yugra “West Siberian peatlands and the carbon cycle: past and present”

The article covers the results of the VII International Field Symposium "West Siberian Peatlands and the Carbon Cycle: Past and Present", which was held in the Khanty-Mansiysk autonomous okrug – Yugra (Khanty-Mansiysk, Beloyarsky) in August 16–26, 2024. The Symposium brought together over 180 scientists specializing in bog science, ecology and carbon balance. The main topics of the plenary and sectional sessions were: the role of bogs in the global carbon cycle, environmental modeling, biodiversity and ecology of bogs, biogeochemical cycles of natural andanthropogenically disturbed bog ecosystems, biogeochemistry of peat and bog waters, paleoecology and history of bog ecosystems development, the impact of modern climate change on forest-bog ecosystems. At the roundtable meetings, the participants discussed the possibilities of using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the study and mapping of bog ecosystems, and shared their experience in implementation of forest-climate projects.

Variations of Planetary Wave Activity in the Lower Stratosphere in February as a Predictor of Ozone Depletion in the Arctic in March

This study is dedicated to the investigation of the relationship between the wave activity in February and temperature variations in the Arctic lower stratosphere in March. To study this relationship, the correlation coefficients (CCs) between the minimum temperature of the Arctic lower stratosphere in March (Tmin) and the amplitude of the planetary wave with zonal number 1 (PW1) in February were calculated. Tmin determines the conditions for the formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) following the chemical destruction of the ozone layer. The NCEP and ERA5 reanalysis data and the modern and future climate simulations of the Earth system models INM CM5 and SOCOLv4 were employed. It is shown that the maximum significant CC value between Tmin at 70 hPa in the polar region in March and the amplitude of the PW1 in February in the reanalysis data in the lower stratosphere is 0.67 at the pressure level of 200 hPa. The CCs calculated using the model data are characterized by maximum values of ~0.5, also near the same pressure level. Thus, it is demonstrated that the change in the planetary wave activity in the lower extratropical stratosphere in February can be one of the predictors of the Tmin. For further analysis of the dynamic structure in the lower stratosphere, composites of 10 seasons with the lowest and highest Tmin of the Arctic lower stratosphere in March were assembled. For these composites, differences in the vertical distribution and total ozone content, surface temperature, and residual meridional circulation (RMC) were considered, and features of the spatial distribution of wave activity fluxes were investigated. The obtained results may be useful for the development of forecasting of the Arctic winter stratosphere circulation, especially for the late winter season, when substantial ozone depletion occurs in some years.

Dynamics of extreme climatic variables for viticulture in the main zones of ampelocenosis of the Krasnodar region

Modern climate changes affect all branches of agriculture. Everywhere there is an increase in air temperature, changes in precipitation, an increase in extreme weather events. Since the productive lifespan of a grape plant is 30-40 years, it is necessary to assess climatic changes in order to create a variety adapted to changes. The purpose of the research is to assess changes in extreme heat supply and relative humidity in the main viticultural areas of the Krasnodar region. The average values of extreme heat supply and relative humidity variables of two climatological periods of 1961–1990 and 1991–2020, their changes over time and the course of variable’s anomalies of 1991–2020 compared with the average values of 1961–1990 are calculated. An increase in the absolute maximum air temperature by 0.2–1.6 °C for the period 1991–2020 was noted compared to the previous period, with the exception of Novorossiysk (decrease by 1.4 °C); an increase in the average absolute maximum air temperature by 1.5–2.5 °C, an increase in the number of days with a maximum air temperature above +35 °C by 1.0–2.3 days; a decrease in the average relative humidity of April–October by 0.7–2.7 % and an increase in the number of days with a minimum relative humidity of less than 30 % over the summer by 0.8–5.4 days. The variability of these variables over time for the period 1991–2020 is consistent with the change in the average. An increase in the absolute maximum was established (by 0.65–0.9 °C/10 years), the number of days with a maximum air temperature above +35 °C (by 0.8–1.1 days/10 years), the number of days with a minimum relative humidity of less than 30% over the summer (by 1.2–7.2 days/10 years); decrease in the average relative humidity of April–October (by 0.5–6.5 %/10 years). These changes indicate an increase in climate extremes and the frequency of unfavorable conditions for grapes in the summer, which requires an adjustment of the assortment.

DEVELOPMENT OF AN ENERGY-SAVING TECHNOLOGY FOR THE PRODUCTION OF SYNTHETIC METHANE FROM CARBON DIOXIDE. 1. RESEARCH OF KINETICS AND MACRO-KINETICS OF THE SABATIER REACTION ON MODIFICATIONS OF THE SERIAL NI/Α-AL2O3 CATALYST GIAP-3-6N

This study presents the results of laboratory research of kinetics and mechanisms of heterogeneous catalytic reactions of hydrogenation of carbon dioxide to carbon monoxide and methane through the Sabatier reaction on modifications of the serial Ni/α-Al2O3 catalyst GIAP-3-6N manufactured in Ukraine. The research was carried out on a laboratory bench using a classic glass gradientless reactor with internal piston stirring, which provides kinetic equations at the level of physicochemical constants of the reactions under consideration. A detailed analysis and review of the literature in the areas of kinetic research of our interest was carried out. A detailed comparison of the kinetic parameters obtained by us for the powder (kinetic) form of contact with a nickel content of 7.5 % (NiO = 7.5 %) with a similar and one of the best foreign analogs containing nickel, Katalco 57-4 (NiO = 15−18 %), produced by the British chemical and metallurgical company Johnson Matthey, was performed. The results of the research confirmed almost equal parameters of the kinetic activity of the compared catalysts in the reactions of hydrogenation of carbon dioxide with hydrogen, including the «Sabatier» reaction, which made it possible to propose a similar mechanism of the processes, calculate the reaction rate constants and their activation energy, propose (determine) kinetic equations for design of reactors and processes, both with the loading of a domestic catalyst and its replacement with a foreign analog. Kinetic equations will be used in the development of multi-ton synthesis gas plants for the production of methanol, ammonia, and synthetic methane, as well as carbon-free e-fuel for internal combustion engines that meet modern climate requirements. Bibl. 28, Fig. 4, Tab. 6.

Resolution dependence of southern Atlantic Ocean stratocumulus decks

AbstractOceanic stratocumulus decks of clouds are among the largest contributors to the Earth's radiation budget, covering around a fifth of the planet's surface and reflecting a large part of the incoming solar radiation. Unfortunately, these clouds are not well represented in modern climate models, resulting in one of the leading causes of uncertainty in climate change projections. This contribution analyses this issue from a novel perspective and sheds light on the mechanisms behind the misrepresentation and resolution dependence of these large clouds. The analysis is based on realistic week‐long simulations performed over a km oceanic domain. Four horizontal resolutions, between 4.4 and 0.55 km, are employed, resulting in a timely investigation, especially in light of the high resolutions employed by present and near‐future climate projections. Results show that the liquid cloud water, the main contributor to the simulated grid‐scale clouds, decreases with a power‐law decay as the resolution increases, whereas the water vapour, responsible for subgrid‐scale clouds, is much less affected by the grid spacing. The leading cause is identified as an imbalance between the rates of change of the advection and turbulence parametrisation terms. In order to verify this observation and provide a possible mitigation to the issue, a second set of simulations is performed where the turbulence parametrisation is tuned. The strategy proves to be successful, confirming the hypotheses and resulting not only in a resolution‐independent radiation budget but also cloud coverage.