Time Series Prediction Model Research Articles

Integrating Multi-Source Remote Sensing Data for Forest Fire Risk Assessment

Forest fires are a frequent and destructive phenomenon in Southwestern China, posing significant threats to ecological systems and human lives and property. In response to the growing need for effective forest fire prevention, this study introduces an innovative method for predicting and assessing forest fire risk. By integrating multi-source data, including optical and microwave remote sensing, meteorological, topographic, and human activity data, the approach enhances the sensitivity of risk models to vegetation water content and other critical factors. The vegetation water content is derived from both Vegetation Optical Depth and optical remote sensing data, allowing for a more accurate assessment of changes in vegetation moisture that influence fire risk. A time series prediction model, incorporating attention mechanisms, is used to assess the probability of fire occurrence. Additionally, the method includes fire spread simulations based on Cellular Automaton and Monte Carlo approaches to evaluate potential burn areas. This combined approach can provide a comprehensive fire risk assessment using the probability of both fire occurrence and potential fire spread. Experimental results show that the integration of microwave data and attention mechanisms improves prediction accuracy by 2.8%. This method offers valuable insights for forest fire management, aiding in targeted prevention strategies and resource allocation.

Predicting alfalfa leaf area index by non-linear models and deep learning models

Leaf area index (LAI) of alfalfa is a crucial indicator of its growth status and a predictor of yield. The LAI of alfalfa is influenced by environmental factors, and the limitations of non-linear models in integrating these factors affect the accuracy of LAI predictions. This study explores the potential of classical non-linear models and deep learning for predicting alfalfa LAI. Initially, Logistic, Gompertz, and Richards models were developed based on growth days to assess the applicability of nonlinear models for LAI prediction of alfalfa. In contrast, this study combines environmental factors such as temperature and soil moisture, and proposes a time series prediction model based on mutation point detection method and encoder-attention-decoder BiLSTM network (TMEAD-BiLSTM). The model’s performance was analyzed and evaluated against LAI data from different years and cuts. The results indicate that the TMEAD-BiLSTM model achieved the highest prediction accuracy (R² > 0.99), while the non-linear models exhibited lower accuracy (R² > 0.78). The TMEAD-BiLSTM model overcomes the limitations of nonlinear models in integrating environmental factors, enabling rapid and accurate predictions of alfalfa LAI, which can provide valuable references for alfalfa growth monitoring and the establishment of field management practices.

Machine Learning-Based Financial Big Data Analysis and Forecasting: From Preprocessing to Deep Learning Models

Abstract: Machine learning technology has revolutionized the financial sector by allowing faster and more accurate analysis and forecasting of large-scale financial data. This paper focuses on how machine learning ( ML ), especially deep learning models, can help to deal with high dimensional, noisy, and non-stationary financial data. Essential methodologies such as data preprocessing, feature engineering, and dimensionality reduction are imperative for preparing the raw financial data to ML algorithms. Methods such as outlier detection, normalisation for preprocessing, and feature (variable) selection for dimensionality reduction improve the models accuracy and efficiency. The paper also examines how deep learning models, such as Recurrent Neural Networks ( RNN ) and Long Short-Term Memory ( LSTM ) networks, can overcome the issues of autoregressive integrated moving average ( ARIMA ) models for financial time series prediction. An in-depth comparison of the machine learning models, ranging from supervised to unsupervised methods, is also provided to discuss their pros and cons in the financial domain, including popular applications such as credit scoring, fraud detection, and market risk prediction. The study finally concludes by discussing how optimisation methods such as hyperparameter tuning and cross-validation are imperative for ML models in complex financial scenarios to ensure their generalisation capability and avoid overfitting.

Developing a clinical decision support framework for integrating predictive models into routine nursing practices in home health care for patients with heart failure.

The healthcare industry increasingly values high-quality and personalized care. Patients with heart failure (HF) receiving home health care (HHC) often experience hospitalizations due to worsening symptoms and comorbidities. Therefore, close symptom monitoring and timely intervention based on risk prediction could help HHC clinicians prevent emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations. This study aims to (1) describe important variables associated with a higher risk of ED visits and hospitalizations in HF patients receiving HHC; (2) map data requirements of a clinical decision support (CDS) tool to the exchangeable data standard for integrating a CDS tool into the care of patients with HF; (3) outline a pipeline for developing a real-time artificial intelligence (AI)-based CDS tool. We used patient data from a large HHC organization in the Northeastern US to determine the factors that can predict ED visits and hospitalizations among patients with HF in HHC (9362 patients in 12,223 care episodes). We examined vital signs, HHC visit details (e.g., the purpose of the visit), and clinical note-derived variables. The study identified critical factors that can predict ED visits and hospitalizations and used these findings to suggest a practical CDS tool for nurses. The tool's proposed design includes a system that can analyze data quickly to offer timely advice to healthcare clinicians. Our research showed that the length of time since a patient was admitted to HHC and how recently they have shown symptoms of HF were significant factors predicting an adverse event. Additionally, we found this information from the last few HHC visits before the occurrence of an ED visit or hospitalization were particularly important in the prediction. One hundred percent of clinical demographic profiles from the Outcome and Assessment Information Set variables were mapped to the exchangeable data standard, while natural language processing-driven variables couldn't be mapped due to their nature, as they are generated from unstructured data. The suggested CDS tool alerts nurses about newly emerging or rising risks, helping them make informed decisions. This study discusses the creation of a time-series risk prediction model and its potential CDS applications within HHC, aiming to enhance patient outcomes, streamline resource utilization, and improve the quality of care for individuals with HF. This study provides a detailed plan for a CDS tool that uses the latest AI technology designed to aid nurses in their day-to-day HHC service. Our proposed CDS tool includes an alert system that serves as a guard rail to prevent ED visits and hospitalizations. This tool can potentially improve how nurses make decisions and improve patient outcomes by providing early warnings about ED visits and hospitalizations.

Data-driven multivariate time series prediction of in-vehicle equipment failure rates

Effectively predicting the failure rate of train-controlled on-board equipment is of great significance for rationally allocating equipment spares, drawing up maintenance plans, and reducing the occurrence of failures. In order to tackle the problem of the intricate attributes and limited predictive precision of the sample data pertaining to the failure rate of on-board equipment, in this paper, a multivariate time series prediction model for the failure rate of train-controlled on-board equipment is based on the combination of multivariate variational modal decomposition (MVMD) graph neural network (GNN) and transformer. First, the original failure rate time series, air temperature, humidity and sand and dust time series are modally decomposed using MVMD, and the intrinsic modal functions (IMFs) of each series are obtained; then, the dynamic graph of the GNN network is defined according to the IMFs, and Transformer’s self-attention mechanism is utilised to capture the dynamic graph’s temporal and spatial dependencies. Finally, the failure rate is output through the feed-forward neural network prediction value. Experiments using the historical fault data of CTCS3-300T train-controlled on-board equipment are carried out to confirm the efficacy of the suggested method, and it is contrasted with other conventional machine learning techniques. The outcomes of the experiment show that compared with other train-controlled on-board equipment failure prediction models, the proposed method has a very good superiority, as evidenced by its mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.0489 and root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.0510, which is of certain reference value for equipment operation and maintenance.

IFNN: Intuitionistic Fuzzy Logic Based Neural Network Model for Time Series Forecasting

IFNN: Intuitionistic Fuzzy Logic Based Neural Network Model for Time Series Forecasting

Land Subsidence Predictions Based on a Multi-Component Temporal Convolutional Gated Recurrent Unit Model in Kunming City

Land subsidence (LS) is a geological hazard driven by both natural conditions and human activities. Traditional LS time-series prediction models often struggle to accurately capture nonlinear data characteristics, leading to suboptimal predictions. To address this issue, this paper introduces a multi-component temporal convolutional gate recurrent unit (MC-TCGRU) model, which integrates a fully adaptive noise-ensemble empirical-mode decomposition algorithm with a deep neural network to account for the complexity of time-series data. The model was validated using typical InSAR subsidence data from Kunming, analyzing the impact of each component on the prediction performance. A comparative analysis with the TCGRU model and models based on seasonal-trend decomposition using LOESS (STL) and empirical-mode decomposition (EMD) revealed that the MC-TCGRU model significantly enhanced the prediction accuracy by reducing the complexity of the original data. The model achieved R² values of 0.90, 0.93, 0.51, 0.93, and 0.96 across five points, outperforming the compared models.

ATPAM: Adversarial Temporal Pattern Attention Mechanism

Abstract. Time series forecasting has a large number of applications in daily life, for instance the prediction of stock prices, electricity consumption, exchange rate changes etc. However, the existing time series prediction methods have limitations. The most significant one is that when all the prediction models get the predicted value, a new round of iteration starts after the loss function is calculated with the corresponding real data. This may cause the accumulation of errors, since there is only one loss function to measure the difference between the predicted value and the ground truth, it will make the connection weak and mainly depend on the accuracy of the prediction model. Unfortunately, there are few time series prediction models with high accuracy in reality. To solve the issue, in this paper, we propose a new time series forecasting model Adversarial Temporal Pattern Attention Mechanism (ATPAM), which based on Generative Adversarial Nets (GANs). ATPAM adopts a Temporal Pattern Attention model as the generator to learn time-invariant temporal patterns, and use a discriminator to improve the prediction performance and do auxiliary adversarial training. Extensive experiments on several real-world datasets show the effectiveness of our method.

Research on the climate change and prediction of the temperature in Beijing

Abstract. Over the past few years, global warming has become a growing threat to the human living environment. Thus, preventing extreme temperature changes is a crucial area of study for the global community. However, temperature changes have diverse causes, making it hard to accurately calculate the data that impacts subsequent temperature forecasts. The ARIMA model is widely favoured by researchers as a typical time series prediction model. Additionally, it holds significant research value in forecasting dynamic models. This paper will use the ARIMA model to forecast temperature changes in Beijing for the next month, starting on 21 July. The findings show that the temperature remains relatively stable in the upcoming month, with minimal fluctuations. Based on historical data, this is the peak temperature in Beijing for the year. So, if the temperatures are not extremely high now, they might not get higher later. This forecast can be used as a guide for managing extreme temperatures in Beijing in the future.

Study of Five-Hundred-Meter Aperture Spherical Telescope Feed Cabin Time-Series Prediction Studies Based on Long Short-Term Memory-Self-Attention.

The Five-hundred-meter Aperture Spherical Telescope (FAST), as the world's most sensitive single-dish radio telescope, necessitates highly accurate positioning of its feed cabin to utilize its full observational potential. Traditional positioning methods that rely on GNSS and IMU, integrated with TS devices, but the GNSS and TS devices are vulnerable to other signal and environmental disruptions, which can significantly diminish position accuracy and even cause observation to stop. To address these challenges, this study introduces a novel time-series prediction model that integrates Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks with a Self-Attention mechanism. This model can hold the precision of feed cabin positioning when the measure devices fail. Experimental results show that our LSTM-Self-Attention model achieves a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of less than 10 mm and a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of approximately 12 mm, with the errors across different axes following a near-normal distribution. This performance meets the FAST measurement precision requirement of 15 mm, a standard derived from engineering practices where measurement accuracy is set at one-third of the control accuracy, which is around 48 mm (according to the accuracy form the official threshold analysis on the focus cabin of FAST). This result not only compensates for the shortcomings of traditional methods in consistently solving feed cabin positioning, but also demonstrates the model's ability to handle complex time-series data under specific conditions, such as sensor failures, thus providing a reliable tool for the stable operation of highly sensitive astronomical observations.

Time-series water prediction based on feature clustering fusion and XGboost

Abstract. The time series prediction problem has a very wide range of applications in many fields. Most scholars use the LSTM class of algorithms for prediction. However, this method consumes a significant amount of computational power and presents several challenges. To address this issue, this paper proposes a time series forecasting method based on feature fusion and XGBoost. Specifically, we first utilize holiday information and the K-Means algorithm for feature extraction to expand the feature dimensions of the dataset, and then employ XGBoost as a model for training and prediction. Experiments demonstrate that the method proposed in this paper significantly reduces error compared to other traditional machine learning and deep learning methods, while the training time is much shorter than these methods. For example, compared with LSTM, the MSLE of this model decreases by 1.42%, while the training time is only 0.15% of that of LSTM. This greatly saves on training costs and computational power consumption. This confirms the effectiveness of using machine learning and clustering algorithms in time series prediction and provides new methods and practical application directions for future time series prediction models.

Analysis and modelling of global online public interest in multiple other infectious diseases due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Previous research has demonstrated the applicability of Google Trends in predicting infectious diseases. This study aimed to analyze public interest in other infectious diseases before and after the outbreak of COVID-19 via Google Trends data and to predict these trends via time series models. Google Trends data for 12 common infectious diseases were obtained in this study, covering the period from 1 February 2018 to 5 May 2023. The ARIMA, TimeGPT, XGBoost, and LSTM algorithms were then utilized to establish time series prediction models. Our study revealed a significant decrease in public interest in most infectious diseases at the beginning of the pandemic outbreak, followed by a rebound in the post-pandemic era, which is consistent with reported disease incidences. Furthermore, our prediction models demonstrated good accuracy, with TimeGPT showing unique advantages. Our study highlights the potential application value of Google Trends and large pre-trained models for infectious disease prediction.

A LSTM-based time series prediction model for China's power supply and its performance evaluation

With the rapid development of China's economy and the acceleration of urbanisation, the stability and sustainability of power supply has become increasingly important. In order to cope with the continuous growth of power demand, accurate power supply prediction has become an essential research direction. In this paper, a time series prediction model for power supply is constructed based on the long short-term memory network (LSTM). Power supply data is organised using methods such as data pre-processing and correlation analysis, and the LSTM model is used to predict future power supply. The performance of the prediction results was evaluated, and the results showed that the model can effectively capture the changing trends of power supply, with high reliability and accuracy, providing important support for scientific management and policy formulation in the power industry.

Sparse Spatial-Temporal Attention Forecasting Network: A new model for Time Series Forecasting

Sparse Spatial-Temporal Attention Forecasting Network: A new model for Time Series Forecasting

Comparative study of LSTM and ANN models for power consumption prediction of variable refrigerant flow (VRF) systems in buildings

The optimized control of variable refrigerant flow (VRF) system requires an accurate time series forecast model for power consumption. Currently, physics-based and black-box models widely used for forecasting power consumption may not be able to capture the dynamic and non-linear behavior of such complex systems. This study presents a long-short-term memory (LSTM), deep learning-based model to accurately predict the power consumption of a VRF system with heat recovery units. The model training used one year of VRF system field test data. The feature selection through the Pearson correlation coefficient was implemented to improve the model's accuracy and computational efficiency. The sensitivity analysis of feature selection was performed by preparing three feature sets, including different levels of relationship with the predicted target. Additionally, the hyperparameters of the models were optimized by Bayesian optimization with the Tree-structured Parzen Estimator algorithm. The deep learning model, LSTM model, was compared to the baseline machine learning model, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and decision tree. The results show that LSTM-30feat with input time step 4 has the best testing performance of Coefficient of the Variation of the Root Mean Square Error (CvRMSE) 23.3%. The best ANN model is ANN-10feat with input time step 8, which has a CvRMSE of 27.8% in testing and 13,569 trainable parameters. However, LSTM-10feat with input time step 4 has the CvRMSE of 24.8% in testing, and the trainable parameters are 1,809. A higher number of trainable parameters in models might result in increased memory usage on the computer and be computationally expensive.

A chaotic time series prediction model based on the improved dung beetle optimizer and echo state network

Echo state network (ESN) possesses advantages such as simple network structure, ease of training, and reliable prediction performance, making them widely applied in the field of time series prediction. Selecting the optimal reservoir parameters is a key issue in ESN research, as it determines the effectiveness of the network prediction, and it is crucial to design an efficient optimization method for parameter optimization. This paper introduces an improved version of the dung beetle optimizer (IDBO), which employs various strategies to enhance population initialization, algorithm optimization capability, and convergence speed. For theoretical function optimization problems, comparing IDBO with other commonly used optimization methods validated its effectiveness and feasibility. Subsequently, combining IDBO with ESN to construct a new model, IDBO-ESN, and conducting time series prediction experiments, the superior performance of this model is verified on two benchmark datasets and one real dataset.

Reductions in inpatient and outpatient mental health care in germany during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic - What can we learn for a better crisis preparedness?

During the COVID-19 pandemic, reports from several European mental health care systems hinted at important changes in utilization. So far, no study examined changes in utilization in the German mental health care inpatient and outpatient mental health care system comprehensively. This longitudinal observational study used claims data from two major German statutory health insurances, AOK PLUS and BKK, covering 162,905 inpatients and 2,131,186 outpatients with mental disorders nationwide. We analyzed changes in inpatient and outpatient mental health service utilization over the course of the first two lockdown phases (LDPs) of the pandemic in 2020 compared to a pre-COVID-19 reference period dating from March 2019 to February 2020 using a time series forecast model. We observed significant decreases in the number of inpatient hospital admissions by 24-28% compared to the reference period. Day clinic admissions were even further reduced by 44-61%. Length of stay was significantly decreased for day clinic care but not for inpatient care. In the outpatient sector, the data showed a significant reduction in the number of incident outpatient diagnoses. Indirect evidence regarding the consequences of the reductions in both the inpatient and outpatient sector of care described in this study is ambiguous and direct evidence on treatment outcomes and quality of trans-sectoral mental healthcare is sparse. In line with WHO and OECD we propose a comprehensive mental health system surveillance to prepare for a better oversight and thereby a better resilience during future global major disruptions.

FAFTransformer: Multivariate time series prediction method based on multi‐period feature recombination

AbstractMultivariate time series forecasting is widely used in various fields in real life. Many time series prediction models have been proposed. The current forecasting model lacks the mining of correlation between sequences based on different periods and correlation of periodical features between different periods when dealing with data. In this paper, we propose a multivariate data prediction model FAFTransformer based on the reorganization of multi‐periodic features, which first extracts the multi‐periodic information of the time series using the method of frequency domain analysis. The temporal dependencies within sequences are then captured using convolution based on different periods, and the correlations between sequences are learned by combining the multivariate attention mechanism to obtain the intra‐sequence and inter‐sequence correlations under the same period. Finally, period fusion is proposed to capture the correlation of period characteristics between different periods. The experimental results show that the model achieves the best results on multiple datasets compared to the latest seven predictive models for time‐series data.

PMformer: A novel informer-based model for accurate long-term time series prediction

When applied to long-term time series forecasting, Informer struggles to capture temporal dependencies effectively, leading to suboptimal forecasting accuracy. To address this issue, we propose PMformer, a novel model based on Informer for long-term time series prediction. First, we introduce a probabilistic patch sampling attention mechanism that utilizes a patch-based strategy to compute attention scores within randomly selected sequence patches. This localized approach enhances the model's capability to capture local temporal dependencies, allowing it to better understand and process critical local features in time series while reducing computational complexity. Additionally, we propose a multi-scale scaling sparse attention technique that balances attention distribution by combining coarse- and fine-grained attention scores, thereby improving the model's ability to capture global sequence information. Finally, we design a dilated causal pooling layer and a multilayer perceptual cross self-attention decoder to further enhance the model's prediction accuracy by capturing key information in long-term correlations and precisely focusing on sequences. We conducted experiments on both multivariate and univariate time series forecasting tasks. The results show that PMformer outperforms six baseline models, including PatchTST and FEDformer, in terms of MAE and MSE metrics. This demonstrates its superior ability to capture temporal dependencies, achieving more accurate predictions.

A parallel and multi-scale probabilistic temporal convolutional neural networks for forecasting the key monitoring parameters of gas turbine

As a crucial equipment in the power industry, gas turbines need effective condition monitoring techniques to maintain safe and reliable operations. Fast yet accurate long-term forecasting of the key monitoring parameters of gas turbine is vital for achieving the overall effective condition monitoring. This however poses challenges in terms of both efficacy and efficiency for conventional time series models like recurrent neural networks (RNN), since they run in a sequential manner. To this end, this paper introduces a novel parallel probabilistic time series prediction model. Particularly, the proposed model leverages the parallelism of temporal convolutional neural network (TCN) and exploits the power of latent space in the Bayesian framework. Besides, a multi-scale feature extraction strategy based on dense connections and a lagged observation strategy are presented to improve the model performance. In the comparative study against state-of-the art competitors on four classical system identification benchmarks, the proposed model significantly reduces the training time, while consistently achieving highly accurate predictions and providing appropriate uncertainty quantification. Thereafter, the proposed model is adopted to build a systematic workflow for the fast yet accurate long-term forecasting of the temperature of blade channel of gas turbine. The comprehensive results again highlight the superiority of the proposed model in terms of both the prediction quality and the training efficiency.