Abstract
Forest fires are a frequent and destructive phenomenon in Southwestern China, posing significant threats to ecological systems and human lives and property. In response to the growing need for effective forest fire prevention, this study introduces an innovative method for predicting and assessing forest fire risk. By integrating multi-source data, including optical and microwave remote sensing, meteorological, topographic, and human activity data, the approach enhances the sensitivity of risk models to vegetation water content and other critical factors. The vegetation water content is derived from both Vegetation Optical Depth and optical remote sensing data, allowing for a more accurate assessment of changes in vegetation moisture that influence fire risk. A time series prediction model, incorporating attention mechanisms, is used to assess the probability of fire occurrence. Additionally, the method includes fire spread simulations based on Cellular Automaton and Monte Carlo approaches to evaluate potential burn areas. This combined approach can provide a comprehensive fire risk assessment using the probability of both fire occurrence and potential fire spread. Experimental results show that the integration of microwave data and attention mechanisms improves prediction accuracy by 2.8%. This method offers valuable insights for forest fire management, aiding in targeted prevention strategies and resource allocation.
Published Version
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