Data-driven multivariate time series prediction of in-vehicle equipment failure rates

Abstract

Effectively predicting the failure rate of train-controlled on-board equipment is of great significance for rationally allocating equipment spares, drawing up maintenance plans, and reducing the occurrence of failures. In order to tackle the problem of the intricate attributes and limited predictive precision of the sample data pertaining to the failure rate of on-board equipment, in this paper, a multivariate time series prediction model for the failure rate of train-controlled on-board equipment is based on the combination of multivariate variational modal decomposition (MVMD) graph neural network (GNN) and transformer. First, the original failure rate time series, air temperature, humidity and sand and dust time series are modally decomposed using MVMD, and the intrinsic modal functions (IMFs) of each series are obtained; then, the dynamic graph of the GNN network is defined according to the IMFs, and Transformer’s self-attention mechanism is utilised to capture the dynamic graph’s temporal and spatial dependencies. Finally, the failure rate is output through the feed-forward neural network prediction value. Experiments using the historical fault data of CTCS3-300T train-controlled on-board equipment are carried out to confirm the efficacy of the suggested method, and it is contrasted with other conventional machine learning techniques. The outcomes of the experiment show that compared with other train-controlled on-board equipment failure prediction models, the proposed method has a very good superiority, as evidenced by its mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.0489 and root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.0510, which is of certain reference value for equipment operation and maintenance.