Modeling Of Economic Processes Research Articles

Side-by-Side Economic Process Model for the Comparison and Evaluation of Magnetic Bead-Based Processes and Legacy Process for the Manufacturing of Monoclonal Antibodies

This study models two alternative downstream processes based on magnetic separation with the objective of understanding the economic feasibility of these processes compared to the traditional mAb process. The key focus lies in the economic understanding of the cell harvest and capture steps in the models. Here, the models revealed that integrating cell removal and product capture in a single operation is the main factor driving the unified productivity between USP and the magnetic bead-based processes. This results in significant economic benefits, such as savings in both the cost of goods per gram of mAb and fixed costs, as well as increasing annual facility output. The predicted savings potential approaches 38% for COGs, 17% for capital investment, and 40% for annual facility output. For mammalian cell-based manufacturing, the magnetic separation-based DSP provides a highly valuable option due to its integration of several individual unit operations compared to the traditional process both in reducing process time and cost and accommodating higher demands.

Математична модель оптимального планування виробничого процесу

In the first half of the last century, due to the increasing complexity of production processes, there was a need for their more efficient organization. During this period, the foundations of mathematical modeling of economic processes were laid. Modern mathematical models of optimal planning integrate artificial intelligence, machine learning methods and large databases, take into account uncertainty and risks in production processes using stochastic dependencies and probability theory methods in the models. This makes it possible to model even more complex systems and take into account more factors, such as fluctuations in demand, changes in production supply chains, etc. Today, optimal planning models are the basis of enterprise management systems (ERP) and are used in various industries: from manufacturing to logistics and energy. This article considers an economic-mathematical model for planning the optimal production process under certain assumptions about the economic state. That is, the profit of the enterprise, which can produce different types of products, for each type of these products depends on the economic state of the country. It is determined what share in the total production of the enterprise will be occupied by a certain type of product in order to obtain maximum profit. The profit of the enterprise depends on the state of the economy, therefore the expected profit is characterized by the mathematical expectation of profit. For an optimal production plan, you need to strive for the best ratio between expected profit and risk (mean square deviation), that is, it is necessary to find the maximum of the function that characterizes this ratio and is a function of n unknowns. To find the extremum of this function, we find partial derivatives and obtain n nonlinear equations with n unknowns. Performing some transformations, we reduce this system to a system of n linear equations. If the non-negativity conditions are not imposed on the variables, then when solving the system, it may happen that some variables will take negative values. This means that in order to obtain optimal profit, it is not recommended to manufacture the corresponding type of products

ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЕ ПОВЕДЕНИЕ ЛЮДЕЙ В РАМКАХ НЕОРТОДОКСАЛЬНОЙ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ МЫСЛИ

This article examines the economic behavior of people from the point of view of unorthodox economic thought. Traditional economic theories often assume that people act rationally and seek to maximize their benefits. However, the real behavior of people is much more complex and multifaceted, which leads to the need to revise classical approaches. It also analyzes the basic principles and methods of unorthodox economic thought, such as behavioral economics, institutional economics, evolutionary economics, and others. The influence of psychological, social and cultural factors on economic decision-making is considered, as well as the role of irrationality and limited rationality in economic behavior. The author emphasizes the need to integrate these approaches into economic theory for a more complete and accurate modeling of economic processes.

Перспективные тенденции и направления развития внешнеторговых отношений сотрудничества РФ со странами АСЕАН

In today’s globalized economy, the trends and prospects of international cooperation actualize the need for an in-depth analysis of bilateral relations. The relations of the Russian Federation with the ASEAN countries (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) remain under-researched in the context of dynamically changing geopolitical landscape and economic sanctions, which forms a gap in modern scientific literature. The attractiveness of this topic for the author is due to the possibility of identifying new vectors of economic interaction, which can contribute to the development of strategies to strengthen the position of the Russian Federation in the international arena. The purpose of the study is to identify and analyze promising trends in foreign trade relations between the Russian Federation (RF) and ASEAN. The tasks include the study of trade structure, dynamics of investment flows and the development of recommendations for deepening economic cooperation. The methodological basis is statistical analysis, modeling of economic processes and expert assessments. To ensure the representativeness of the sample, international trade data for the last decade were used, as well as the results of surveys of representatives of the business and expert communities. The main result is the confirmation of the hypothesis about the significant potential for the development of trade relations in the sectors of high technology, energy and agriculture. It is shown that interaction with ASEAN can contribute to the diversification of Russian exports and reduce dependence on traditional trade partners. The results of the study can be applied in the development of state programs of foreign economic activity and strategies of international cooperation. The article also outlines the limitations of the current research, which include the instability of the international political environment and economic sanctions. In-depth analysis of tariff and non-tariff barriers, the impact of digitalization on trade flows and the study of multilateral cooperation opportunities within the BRICS and SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) frameworks are suggested as areas for future research.

APPLICATION OF THE SAMUELSON EQUATION TO THE EVANS MODEL

Mathematical modeling of economic processes is an actual direction of research, because the well-being of citizens and the country as a whole depends on it. In the case of the market, the prices of most goods and services are not planned centrally, are not directly regulated by the state, but are freely set and changed by the market itself. The main factors that control the movement of prices in the market are the demand and supply of goods. In the economy, the most important are dynamic models, the parameters of which change over time. The Evans model (Walras-Evans-Samuelson model) is currently one of the basic concepts explaining the dynamic establishment of the equilibrium price in the market of one product under the influence of supply and demand. This is due to the fact that knowing the dynamics of the economic parameter we are interested in, we can try to build a forecast of its further evolution. The article examines the market of one product. For convenience, we will assume that the functions of the dependence of demand and supply on the price are given by linear relationships. The construction of the Evans model is that the change in price is directly proportional to the excess of demand over supply and the duration of this excess. The Samuelson differential equation with an initial condition, that is, the Cauchy problem, is obtained. Samuelson's equation has a stationary (equilibrium) point, which is a positive price at which supply and demand will be equal. The analysis of the obtained solution of the problem shows that over a long enough time (relatively speaking, at ) the price asymptotically approaches the equilibrium value. If we are not interested in the temporal dependence, but only in the equilibrium price, then it can be found from the differential equation immediately by setting the condition , this is the so-called limit stationary mode. The solution of the Cauchy problem is found by the method of variation of the constant. The parameterization of the model using the fractional differentiation operator in the sense of Gerasimov-Caputo is considered. The resulting solution was analyzed depending on the parameter . For this, the asymptotic representation of the function was used for large values of the argument. Conclusions are made regarding price dynamics in time relative to the equilibrium price when demand and supply are equal.

Структурно-параметрический анализ и меры по развитию внешней торговли Российской Федерации в условиях санкционного давления

The subject of the study is the evolution of the foreign trade of the Russian Federation in the context of changing foreign policy factors. The purpose is to analyze the key parameters of Russia’s foreign trade at the present stage and develop measures to accelerate development with updated trading partners. The article is based on structural parametric analysis and modeling of economic processes and systems. The methods of logical, graphoanalytic, statistical, correlation and comparative analysis are used. A statistical and correlation analysis of the foreign trade activity of the Russian Federation has been carried out. The main reasons for the slowdown and acceleration of the development of foreign trade have been identified. The main export and import goods on which the economic security of the state depends are identified. The measures for the development of the domestic market of the Russian Federation in the context of increasing the country’s export potential are proposed. New key trading partners of the Russian Federation have been identified, as well as measures to accelerate the development of trade with such states. Conclusions. In order to accelerate the development of foreign trade in the Russian Federation, it is necessary to improve the domestic market. The proposed measures will improve the economic situation within the state, which will increase the potential of foreign trade activities.

NONLINEAR MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF DEMAND – SUPPLY

Currently, mathematical modeling is more and more persistently invading the economy. The possibility of using mathematical modeling is related to the existence of stable trends that characterize many economic processes. The importance of modeling as a research method is determined by the fact that the model is a conceptual tool focused on the analysis of the researched processes and their forecasting. The need to master mathematical modeling of economic processes as a method of analysis is not limited to purely practical needs: mastering this method contributes to the formation of non-linear thinking. Thus, in addition to solving purely practical problems, the use of this method has a great ideological significance. The paper examines two models of supply and demand: linear and nonlinear. For each model, goals and mathematical formulations of the models are formulated. Methods for analyzing the coefficients of two models are proposed.

Тенденции развития горнолыжного туризма в Карачаево-Черкесии

Introduction. T he sphere of ski tourism is one of the priorities of state policy, which is expressed in the following factors: comprehensive restructuring of the tourism sector; development of large infrastructure projects; introduction of a mandatory system of classification of tourist facilities by location; formation of new ski trails and beaches. The strategic direction of the development of the ski tourism sector within the framework of the development of internal and external travel is the growth of consolidation of all territories of the Russian Federation, based on the development of transport infrastructure, purposeful activity of the state, establishing the principles and amounts of fees for various services, transportation of passengers and cargo, export and import of goods, subsidizing interregional transportation. The purpose of the study is to determine the strategic priorities for the development of ski tourism in the world and Russia. Materials and methods of research. Theoretical foundations of the Russian school of strategizing, general logical research methods, system and situational approaches, modeling of economic processes. Research results and discussion. The study identified the main problems and ways to solve them within the framework of sustainable development of the mountainous territories of Russia. It is determined that with global transformation processes, the country has a wide range of opportunities for the development of tourist territories, while it is necessary to develop comprehensive programs for the development of the tourism industry, effective marketing solutions in the context of strengthening the interaction of the country's tourist facilities with international tourist markets. Conclusion. Comprehensive solutions to the key problems of mountain territories require the development of a unified system of classification and accessibility of tourist information, the creation of a modern regulatory framework for tourism development, the formation of large ski complexes and territories that operate all year round and are accessible to the average citizen, the development of environmental aspects in the tourism sector.

Modeling the Investment Policy of a Fishing Firm: The Case of Russian Fisheries in the Baltic Sea

The purpose of the paper is to improve the methodology of fisheries management by expanding the set of factors for investment decisions.Materials and methods. Our work is a further development of the bioeconomic approach, which is based on the interdependence of natural and produced capital in fisheries. Author's solutions are based on methods of analysis and synthesis, and use the modeling of economic processes in fisheries.Results. The paper describes a theoretical model for making investment decisions. This model is used to analyze the investment policy of the firm. The key modeling parameters used are: stock of fish resources, catch size, capital and investment. Our study showed that for this fishery, the main factor in deciding on the optimal level of investment is the ratio of the unit values of existing assets and investments.Practical significance. Although the proposed modified model is preliminary and has a number of limitations, empirical testing allows us to draw conclusions about the possibility of using it to develop optimal production and investment decisions for a fishing company and about the advisability of continuing work in this direction.

Моделирование процессов сложной социально-экономической системы при выборе стратегических приоритетов развития

To change the economic processes and stabilize the socio-political situation, the authorities need an effective set of tools and methods of socio-economic management. They require new and better means of strategic planning that provide a controlled development of the national economy. This research features advanced forms and methods of econometric modeling in the regional socio-economic system. The research relied on the strategizing methodology developed by Professor V.L. Kvint, as well as the Strategist’s Office software that makes it possible to construct mathematical models of economic processes for a particular region. The predictive analytical model covered ten basic economic processes. This article introduces some factors and indicators defined for the transport infrastructure based on the index approach. The experimental part focused on the case of the North-Western and Volga Federal Districts. The set of tasks for regional development strategizing ranges from the theoretical and methodological provisions to the development of a digital twin of a regional economic system designed with the help of tools that provide information support for analysis, assessment, and forecasting. Regional strategizing is considered as a model of a regional socio-economic system defined as a structure that includes a number of autonomous subsystems with certain objective and measurable indicators.

Spectral indicators of economic risk

Subject. The article addresses issues of efficient risk management and regulation of economic process as a whole. Objectives. The purpose of this work is to improve the methodology and methods for measuring economic risk, increase the reliability and accuracy of its assessment, solve the problem of risk measurement with limited statistical information and unknown law of distribution of the studied economic value. Methods. The study employs the apparatus of the spectral theory of random processes. Results. I developed spectral indicators enabling to measure risk in real time, assess possible deviations of the economic value from the expected value and the quality of the economic process model. The spectral analysis made it possible to move from the study of the statistical model of economic risk to the study of its image in the integral Fourier transform. The spectral approach to risk assessment is verified on the innovation project case. Conclusions. Spectral risk indicators take into account the dynamics of the economic process. They do not require an expert assessment of the probability and knowledge of the law of distribution of the risk-related economic value. They also enable improved accuracy of risk measurement.

Econometric modeling of the operating rate as a tool for implementing the financial strategy of rolling stock operators

This article identifies macroeconomic factors, the change of which affects the value of the wagon component of the freight railway tariff (on the example of gondola cars in the Russian Federation in 2018-2021). A quantitative assessment of this influence was made by applying multifactorial econometric models of economic processes with ranking of influencing factors according to the strength of influence in absolute and relative terms; an economic explanation of the mechanisms of this influence is proposed. Such modeling can be used as a tool for implementing the financial strategy of rolling stock operators in terms of developing a pricing strategy and strategic revenue management in the corporate finance system of these organizations.

Моделирование неопределенности при помощи нейронных сетей

Introduction: modern political and economic conditions of uncertainty dictate the need for a systematic strategic development of industrial enterprises, and, consequently, new principles of production management. The functioning of enterprises, which are a complex economic system, is accompanied by the behavior uncertainty of both the elements of the system itself and external factors. The elimination of uncertainty from the modeling of economic processes does not allow to consider the behavior of an object in real conditions, which affects the system development forecasting. The use of neural networks makes it possible to obtain a quantitative assessment of uncertainty factors influence on enterprises. Aims: review of methods for quantifying the uncertainty level as well as development of a neural network model of uncertainty in decision-making. Methods: neural network modeling. Results: methodological approach has been developed to the construction of a neural network model for assessing uncertainty for production transfer to innovative materials at an aviation industry enterprise. Conclusions: the use of a neural network for applicability is expedient in the absence of explicit mathematical dependencies. The neural network model can be easily adapted to various uncertainties in different enterprises.

ДОКАЗАТЕЛЬНОЕ МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ КАК ПЕРСПЕКТИВНЫЙ ИНСТРУМЕНТ НАУЧНОГО ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯ СОЦИАЛЬНО-ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИХ ПРОЦЕССОВ

Actual problems of developing the methodology of economic-mathematical and information- computer modeling of economic processes and systems are revealed in the paper. Model construction is included in a wide range of studies of ontological, epistemological, ideological and praxeological systems. The problem of coordinating the complexity of the object, apparatus and modeling result is put forward and emphasized. The concept of evidence-based modeling is formulated as a process of constructing and interpreting a mathematical model that ensures the reliability and safety of its application. The principles of evidence-based modeling are given.

Analytical and computer dynamic discrete simulation model of the mechanism for the formation of monetary amounts to be paid to the enterprise for the production of rocket and space equipment

The key point of flow process modeling is that it is based on the use of discrete models. In traditional approaches to modeling production processes, time is considered as a continuous quantity. Static models are far from reality, since any production has a cyclical nature, since any product is produced in a finite time. In the modern theory and practice of modeling, mathematical models of economic processes in which time changes discretely are of great importance. The work combines various aspects of management, found a common language and structure in describing various conditions in production, the supply of components, raw materials, materials, as well as research, based on investments in staff training and product quality. The key point of flow process modeling is that it is based on the use of discrete models. In traditional approaches to modeling production processes, time is considered as a continuous quantity. Static models are far from reality, since any production has a cyclical nature, since any product is produced in a finite time. In the modern theory and practice of modeling, mathematical models of economic processes in which time changes discretely are of great importance. The work combines various aspects of management, found a common language and structure in describing various conditions in production, the supply of components, raw materials, materials, as well as research, based on investments in staff training and product quality. This article discusses the actual problems of the formation of flows that characterize the financial results of the company's activities for the production of launch vehicles. It is shown that the main flow parameters characterizing the financial condition of the enterprise are the cash flow to be paid and the cash flow to receive incoming funds for the sale of rocket kits, each of these flows is represented by a discrete simulation equation, the solution of which is carried out using computer models. An equation has been formed to determine the cash flow for the payment of wages to the main production personnel at the enterprise. To assess the magnitude of the effect as the final result of the company's activities, an equation has been formed that allows determining the specific cost of the launch vehicle. At a known price and its unit cost, mathematical and computer models of the profit flow received by the enterprise are formed. The graphs of the trajectories of changes in the flow of profit and the expenditure on wages presented in the work allow us to determine the time of the transition process and its dynamic stability under imposed disturbances in the volume of the order from Roscosmos.

SIMULATION MODELING OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS IN THE SERVICE SECTOR

Scientific article is devoted to researching the possibility of developing a simulation model of an investment project for a travel agency. In recent years, the tourism industry in the world is experiencing rapid development. The development of the tourism industry requires new investments. The investor must assess the degree of risks, the likelihood of profit or loss. It is noted that the most important advantage of simulation modeling is that it makes it possible to study economic systems at the design stage. Due to this, simulation models can be used as a universal tool in making appropriate decisions under conditions of uncertainty and taking into account those factors that are difficult to predict and take into account, which is why simulation is so often used in the development of investment projects. When assessing the risks of investment projects, the collection of information requires significant financial expenses, is quite time-consuming, and sometimes impossible. The subject of the study is a set of the theoretical, methodological and organizational problems related to the management decisions regarding the investment of the projects in the field of tourism. The methodology is based on the stochastic simulation modeling of economic processes. The aim of the study is to develop a simulation model for an investment project in the tourism sector, which will allow the investor to appreciate the degree of the risk and the likelihood of return on the investment. The article reveals the features of computer simulation in the MathCAD system. It is proved that it is convenient to develop simulation models of investment projects in the MathCAD system. It has a powerful mathematical support, remains one of the systems in which the description of the solution of mathematical problems is given with the use of conventional mathematical formulas and symbols and does not require special training in programming. The simulation model of the investment project of the travel agency was developed in the MathCAD system. Statistical processing of the results of the experiments with the model has been carried out. The necessity of the detailed study of critical intervals of the histogram at the transition from loss-making to profitable NPV values has been substantiated. Based on the results of simulation experiments with the model, the errors of the model were estimated, the law of NPV random variables distribution was established. The developed simulation model allows the investor to estimate the risk factor, the probability of profit or loss from the investment, to assess the possible uncertainty of the results of their own decision to invest in the project. Conclusion: the simulation model of the investment project built and investigated in MathCAD system allows investor to estimate the risk factor, probability of profit or loss for choosing the optimal pricing policy and optimization of economic strategy of tourist agency.

DIGITALIZATION IN THE AGRICULTURAL SPHERE AND ITS DEVELOPMENT TRENDS

Introduction. The article analyzes the definitions of the concept “digitalization” formulated by various authors. The author's definition is proposed, according to which digitalization in management is digital data processing in combination with a developed toolkit to support management decision-making. The role of digitalization in solving the main tasks in the management of the agrarian sphere at the state level is defined. A number of economic-mathematical models are proposed, the use of which in the conditions of digitalization will ensure an increase in the effectiveness of management decisions. On the basis of the conducted research, the priority measures for the implementation and development of digitalization in the management of the agrarian sphere have been determined. Materials and methods. The methodological basis of the research is general and special scientific methods: analysis and synthesis; deduction and induction; comparison and generalization. A systematic approach was used to determine the connections between phenomena and processes, an abstract-logical approach was used to clarify the concept of digitalization, and a monographic approach was used to study and analyze literary sources. Results and discussion. A large number of weakly formalized and non-formalized tasks arising in the process of managing socio-economic systems and the presence in this field of a significant number of vaguely defined concepts require the combination of the digitalization process with a system of economic-mathematical models and intelligent technologies. Based on this, we proposed the definition of digitalization in management - it is digital data processing in combination with a developed toolkit to support management decision-making. In the process of decision-making in the management of the agrarian sphere, a prominent place should be occupied by models of trend and factor forecasting that reflect seasonal fluctuations of indicators, a comprehensive integrated assessment of the state of development of this sphere, methods of multi-criteria optimization and decision-making in situations of risk and uncertainty, simulation computer modeling of economic processes. Digitalization makes it possible to effectively apply these methods and models. Conclusions. Digitalization significantly changes the traditional approach to management processes in the agrarian sphere and opens up new opportunities for the effective application of economic and mathematical models in these processes, which are combined into a single system. The development and research of digital equivalents of real management decisions makes it possible to assess in real time the consequences of these decisions and the risks associated with them and to choose the best option for management actions.

ПРОБЛЕМИ МІЖНАРОДНОЇ МАКРОЕКОНОМІЧНОЇ НЕСТАБІЛЬНОСТІ

The modern economic system is inextricably linked with the processes of globalization and regionalization. International economic instability becomes part of global political instability. Obvious large-scale changes in the structure, geography, management model of the world economy. However, the theoretical understanding of these changes lags behind current practices. Thus, the purpose of this article is to identify the main problematic components in the management models of economic processes and their causes, as well as to propose possible scenarios for exiting the crisis. Against the backdrop of ongoing global challenges, the current conditions of economic development (as well as its forms) are manifested in macroeconomic instability, which consists in the change of functioning system industries and objects. There is an accumulation of changes in the system, and as soon as the dominance exceeds the power of stabilizing factors, interconnection and interdependence, which maintain the system balance, oscillations are disturbed and the equilibrium positions are lost. Thus, the system becomes unstable. Considering the circumstances in which the economy develops and the periodicity of fluctuations in the economic system, its stability is disturbed, which depends on the factor of timely adjustments to the economic system itself to normalize fluctuations in the system. The economy as a system develops unevenly, wave-like, which is defined in economic theory by the law of diminishing marginal productivity of all factors. The expansion of relationships between the subjects of the world economy and the structural arrangement of its elements increasingly raise the question of rethinking the nature of economic reality and the regularity of its formation. The global economic system is getting complicated, and everything is complicated very selectively. Movement through evolutionary complication means the realization of less likely events. The principle of selection allows the existence of bifurcation states, including even the absence of stochastic factors, such as fluctuations in exchange rates, market prices, energy resources, etc., a transition to many new states is possible.

Забезпечення сталого розвитку України та країн світу на основі коригування моделей лінійної економіки

Recently, the thesis that the use of methods and models of a linear economy can lead to negative social and environmental consequences of turbulent economic development, which will be difficult to correct, has become relevant. The thesis on the need for development without violating the ability to meet the needs of future generations is becoming more and more insistent. The object of the research is the process of ensuring the sustainable development of the country’s economy by adjusting linear models of economic processes. The most problematic is the transition from linear programming of economic processes to development without violating the ability to meet the needs of future generations. The proposed methods include the positive influence of more developed countries on the economy, efficiency, ecology and social problems in less developed countries. This approach allows to form proposals for the future prospects of business functioning. It is advisable to name the management of economic entities in the direction of sustainable development, in the model approach it should be a model of sustainable entrepreneurship. Its main goal should be to improve the quality of life. The model is a reflection of the continuous process of balancing the economic, social and environmental goals of economic entities, which provides for a flexible change in the distribution of resources as the environment changes. In addition, there is a stimulating impact on the environment and an increase in the chances in the market. The model of sustainable development at both micro and macro levels is the use of a circular economy built upon the causal aspect of innovation in the process of forming a model for its development. The proposal as to the model approach of sustainable entrepreneurship regarding the management of entrepreneurial activity in general and any enterprise in particular in the direction of sustainable development belongs to the future perspective of business functioning. Its main goal is to improve the quality of life. The model approach consists in the continuous process of balancing economic, social and environmental goals at enterprises, which involves a flexible change in the allocation of resources as the environment changes. In addition, there is a stimulating impact on the environment of entrepreneurial activity (of a company) in order to increase the chances in the market.

Study of mathematical models of economic processes by methods of the theory of covering mappings

Study of mathematical models of economic processes by methods of the theory of covering mappings