Modeling Of Economic Processes Research Articles

The method of formation of skills of simulation modeling the it professional

Purpose of the study.The aim is to create a technique targeted at the development of simulation skills in higher education environment, where students are competent in applying information technologies in economics. The relevance of the research lies in the fact that the existing methodological developments often focus on a specific software tool or methodology that cannot respond to all economic problems. A specialist in simulation modeling should possess integrative interdisciplinary knowledge from related scientific fields, for example, probability theory and mathematical statistics, higher mathematics, be familiar with other methods of solving economic problems: linear, nonlinear, dynamic programming, optimization; show proficiency in structural and functional analysis; be able to explore complex processes and systems comprehensively.Materials and methods.The following pedagogical approaches and teaching methods were implemented in this research: ● a systematic approach to solving complex problems based on the modelling economic objects as systems operating in a certain environment, ● activity approach to develop students’ professional competences in the process of creation, debugging and optimization of computer models of economic systems; ● problem teaching method in the framework of research and analysis of educational problems of the subject area; ● implemented interactive teaching methods; ● multimedia methods in the content of teaching materials of the discipline, including electronic manuals, educational videos, as well as multimedia presentations. The research also utilized information technologies, in which computers, communication equipment and software environments are: ● means to provide educational material to students for the transfer of knowledge; ● tools for designing, developing and conducting simulation experiments. In addition, we used the following special professional technologies, methods and tools in the process of teaching students: ● structural and functional modeling methodology; ● discrete-event approach to simulation methodology; ● special software for development and research of simulation models of economic processes and systems: Arena 15.0, AnyLogic 8.3.2.According to the requirements of the new educational standards, the student must master a sufficiently large amount of general cultural, professional and specialized competencies included in the curriculum. The application of the proposed approaches and methods allows to provide effective development of skills of simulation modeling of educational programs for bachelors of «Applied Informatics» and «Business Informatics».Results.The study created a method of teaching students the skills of simulation modeling. The research also established the model of formation of readiness of the IT specialist to the development of simulation models of economic processes and systems in higher school. We also identified important methodological conditions for the formation of professional competencies of students in the field of modeling, such as: ● application of a systematic approach to the analysis of domain problems, as well as for the synthesis of mathematical simulation models of business processes and economic systems; ● practical orientation of the content of training (selection and research in the educational process of the most characteristic, typical problems of the economy); ● integration of interdisciplinary knowledge, methods and approaches to solve complex problems.Conclusion.The method can equip students with skills of simulation modeling with various areas of practical application. First, this technique can be used by university students who are engaged in pursuing practical skills and basic system knowledge in the field of simulation. Secondly, teachers can use it, conducting courses: “Computer modeling”, “Mathematical and simulation modeling”, “Modeling of processes and systems” in the educational process of the University to improve the professional competence of students training simulation modeling. Third, the outcomes may be of interest to managers of educational programs in the areas of: “Applied Informatics”, “Business Informatics”, etc. to improve the structure and sequence of disciplines of competence-oriented curricula. Finally, the application of the proposed methodology in the educational process of the University will enhance professional expertise of young specialists and undoubtedly address the needs of potential employers.

FUZZY-SETS MODELING OF THE FINANCIAL CONDITION OF THE ENTERPRISE

The existing models of the financial condition of the enterprise estimation is analyzed in the article, the disadvantages of these models in solving the set tasks isgived. A qualitatively new approach to modeling the financial condition of theenterprise based on fuzzy logic is proposed. It is established that in order to modelthe financial condition of an enterprise it is necessary to use not only quantitative (financial), but also qualitative (indicator) indicators of its activity. The method ofmodeling the financial condition of an enterprise by improving the efficiency of its management is improved. It is proved that unlike existing approaches, the proposed modeling technique allows to analyze the financial state of the enterprise, based not only on financial indicators of activity and specifics of enterprise management, but also allows to take into account the specifics of the country, the time period and the industry in which it operates. An analytical review of literary sources concerning the existing methods of modeling the financial state of the enterprises is in the article and the conclusion is made about the relevance of the development of a new model basedon the modern mathematical apparatus, namely, fuzzy sets. On the basis of the analysis of the object of research and the state of the problem of mathematical modeling of economic processes, the main drawbacks of existing methods and models are identified and the main direction of research is chosen. The basic research tasks are solved and formalized. The qualitative analysis of possible methods of solving the problem is carried out. The method of complex modeling of the financial state of the enterprise with the use of the apparatus of fuzzy logic is chosen and justified, which allows to form a model not only taking into account quantitative and qualitative factors of a particular enterprise, but also with the possibility of adjusting it in accordance with the specifics of the country, industry, period of time. Such models have the properties of flexibility and adaptability to the changing conditions of a market economy. Such models have the properties of flexibility and adaptability to the changing conditions of a market economy. And although the calculation of the indicators of financial levels of the enterprise is based on selected indicators and the existing set of sets of different levels, the proposed method provides an opportunity to flexibly adjust the model to the specific conditions and specifics of the company, which distinguishes our approach from previously developed similar approaches. The reliability of the calculations is due to the correct use of the selected research methods and is confirmed by the results of the analysis of the experiments conducted. The appropriateness of using the apparatus of fuzzy logic in conducting a comprehensive analysis of the enterprise. The studies conducted in this paper may be continued in order to develop the apparatus for the analysis of some other parties in the operation of economic systems, which would allow simultaneous analysis of many indicators of different levels. This would allow for a more flexible policy for the management of economic systems and, accordingly, would ensure their profitability and functioning at a higher level. The developed models are capable of conducting analysis on the basis of user-specified parameters. They can be used for analysis in other systems. Using such expert systems on the basis of effective mathematical models will help to obtain relevant recommendations for the formation of an optimal strategy for managing economic systems, which allows relying on the activation and increase of the efficiency of investment activity and the achievement of the most important goals of social policy. In order to increase the efficiency of the decision-making on the evaluation of the financial condition of the enterprise, it is proposed to form an appropriate multi-layered DSS. This will solve numerous problems of an economic and technical nature, among which the main is the need for a complete and accurate description in the model of the entity, identifying a large number of potential solutions, making an accurate decision on the evaluation of the financial condition of the enterprise in real time, the need for handling large arrays of input information, the need to take into account quantitative and qualitative evaluationparameters of the entity at the same time.

Modeling of Economic Processes, Instability and Chaos

We consider a mathematical model describing the dynamics of the three components of the economic activity of enterprises—production, management and resource consumption. For the analysis of the dynamics, the methods and criteria formulated by the authors earlier were used; new results of a practical nature were obtained; in particular, the calculation of the spectrum of small perturbations of the system depending on the input resource and system parameters is given. It is shown that the calculated values of the criteria of instability and chaos are fully consistent with the calculation of the spectrum, indicated the stability intervals of the system, as well as areas of instability and chaos.

Methodological Approaches to Structural-Logical Analysis of Interaction For Business Cycles Based on The Theory of Expectations

Traditional approaches to modeling economic cycles, which have been formed within the theory of economic growth, are based mainly on the use of complex multidimensional methods for constructing differential equations of production functions (Abalkin, 2002; Braudel, 1984; Kondratyev, 1989; Marat et al., 2016; Yakovets, 1997). In our opinion, the main disadvantage of such models is their linearity, which forms the predetermined results of simulated phenomena. The development of so-called trend models based on the use of a simple mathematical apparatus (the development of polynomial, exponential, linear and other functions) as part of conducting statistical analysis of time series is quite a popular mechanism for constructing economic cycles. No less common tool for diagnosing cyclical fluctuations in the economy is the mechanism for developing production functions.In our opinion, modern economic systems are characterized by a very wide range of uncertainties, what predetermines an appropriate analysis of a significant number of factors. In addition, the formed system of administrative markets greatly distorts the classical tools of market regulation, what forms a special mode of generation of economic cycles. Thus, the use of traditional mechanisms and tools for diagnosing cyclical fluctuations in the economy does not fully contribute to objective modeling of economic processes, what affects the methodological tools used in forecasting economic trends, accordingly. This predetermines the need to develop new methods adapted to the new realities for evaluating economic cycles and factors generating them. This paper is devoted to finding methods for solving this issue.

ANTI-CRISIS MANAGEMENT OF THE RUSSIA'S REGIONAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF SANCTIONS

Objectives The aim of the study is to identify the development directions for industrial production in the regions of the Russian Federation under the conditions of ongoing sanction pressure.Methods Systemic and situational approaches, as well as the modelling of economic processes and phenomena, are used as research methods. The graphic images method is used in order to visualise the analytical data and the results.Results The development features of industrial production in the country's regions are examined; in particular, those of the Volga Federal District and the Perm Krai. Generally positive trends associated with production volumes – as well as a slight decrease in prices and production volumes in metallurgy caused by sanctions and unfavourable external market conditions – are revealed. Due to increased demand for certain types of products,Metallurgical production in Russia is developing in different directions;however, as a consequence of restrictions imposed on some of them, there is a need to develop compensatory mechanisms based on state regulation of pricing and salespolicies. Despite the sanctions, export of the products of the industry under review is increasing;nevertheless, the stability of exporting enterprises is affected by volatility in world prices. The relevance of state complex support measures is substantiated; these consist in the formation of an anti-crisis management mechanism based on approaches that have been proven in industries experiencing problems of the world market situation.Conclusion Taking into account the performed analysis, an anti-crisis management mechanism in the metallurgical sector, which can be adapted to the regional and branch features of operating industrial enterprises, was proposed.

Development of intellectual and computer capital of enterprises in market conditions

The formation of the computer capital of an enterprise (PSC) occurs in the process of the development of intellectual capital (IC). The low level of IT development in most Ukrainian enterprises is due to the lack of need for these types of innovations. Unsuccessful projects are associated with a lack of changes in human and organizational capital, without which it is not possible to obtain positive results from the use of IT. The article was written based on the results of research and carried out in the laboratory "Modeling of economic processes in infrastructure sectors" of Kharkov National University of Radio Electronics commissioned by the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine in 2017-2018. The aim of the study is to prove the success of the development of the enterprise information system (COI) using intellectual and computer resources. As a research method, a mechanism of comparative analysis of indicators before the computer revolution and the formation of a modern information system of an enterprise was chosen. As the main conclusion in the conducted research it is possible to note the following. The formation of the CCP takes place over several years (from 3 to 5). To determine its value in human capital, it is necessary to develop approaches for the economic assessment of the knowledge of IT employees in the field of human capital. The paper proposes a methodology for the development of the intellectual and computer capital of an enterprise.

Accounting Development in the System of Transition to the New Standards of Financial Security of a Commercial Bank

The article describes the features of the evolution theory in the system of statistical accounting of commercial bank’s financial security. Based on the analysis of the globalization processes the necessity was justified to plan at any level of financial control system macroeconomic factors of (or threats to) security of the financial state of the object. In the work there were used the methods of graphical data modeling of economic processes and their algorithms. This made it possible to integrate in the study not only literary analysis and the regulatory framework analysis, but also to expand the scope of the study to statistically significant indicators on the basis of the analysis of the fundamental accounting methodology and perspective accounting methodology in the system of transition to the new commercial bank financial security standards. The article examines the existing approaches to understanding the essence of financial security and shows their weaknesses. The article offers to use static and active approaches to the interpretation of the concept of financial security and shows the duality of standards of its evaluation which are operating in the state. This provided us with an opportunity to identify the scientific gap in the accounting system for banks with basic (or internal) license and show the prospects of its neutralizing by accounting methods. The author has proved the need to implement forecasting tools in the current system of accounting of the financial security of the Bank. The author developed a matrix of compliance to the regulations and scientifically-practical methods for controlling commercial bank financial security as part of adapting to the international practice. So, there was the comparative analysis of the core performance indicators characterizing the financial security mainly associated with the functioning of the financial sector of the national economy and it also showed the gaps existing in the Russian Federation system as the basis for further development of the simplified system of statistical accounting of financial security for the banks in the Russian Federation.

Розробка моделі розподілу ІТ-проектів на підприємствах галузі інормаційних технологій

The aim of the article. Modeling different types of IT activities of an enterprise is an important component of enterprise management. Every modern enterprise should be able to use simulation tools. This will maximally accurately reflect the required processes and phenomena and will allow you to get good performance. The results of the analyses. In the article, the authors have shown that there are many methods and models for managing complex systems. However, there are few models that can be used in practice. The article considers the possibilities of using information technologies in the management of the company's personnel. The authors conducted a critical review of literary sources devoted to the construction of optimization models. The authors analyzed the possibility of using models for implementing IT projects and the possibility of applying multicenter decisions in the theory of management. The results of this study are an economic and mathematical model for implementing IT projects for enterprises engaged in information technology. The economic-mathematical model is constructed according to the simulation stages. There are two optimality criteria in the model: the first criterion of optimality is minimization of the total costs for the implementation of projects, the second criterion of optimality is maximizing the efficiency of the work of IT groups. The model of optimal choice of IT orders and distribution of workplaces (IT-projects) among the executors (IT teams) takes into account the following restrictions: on the allocated working time fund; for mandatory inclusion of an order in the plan (for external IT projects) On the optional inclusion of IT projects in the plan (for internal IT projects) by the number of IT projects in each IT team. The article proposes a method for solving a problem. Conclusions and perspectives for further research. This model is dynamic optimization and multicriteria. The model allows to find optimal variants of distribution of orders by executors. Orders are IT projects that need to be completed within a specified time frame. Executors - IT teams, which have all the necessary specialists. The purpose of increasing the efficiency of the enterprise on the criterion of profitability. Key words: information technology, optimization, modeling, marketing, management, IT project, mathematical model  DOI: 10.15276/mdt.2.3.2018.4 Sokolovska, Z.M., Andrienko, V. M., & Ivchenko, I.Yu et al. (2016). Mathematical and computer modeling of economic processes. Sokolovskaya, Z. M. (Ed.). Odessa: Astroprint [in Ukrainian]. Ivchenko I.Yu., Chugunov, A.A., Ivchenko, O.I. Ekonomicheskoe modelirovanie kak instrument upravleniya IT-predpriyatiem [Economic Modeling as a Management Tool for an IT Enterprise]. Naukovo-praktychna konferentsiia (29-30 zhovtnia 2015) – Scientific and Practical Conference. Ekonomichna kibernetyka: teoriia, praktyka ta napriamky rozvytku [Scientific and Practical Internet Conference «Economic Cybernetics: Theory, Practice and Directions of Development»]. Odessa [in Russian]. Wentzel, E.S. (1964). Elementyi dinamicheskogo programmirovaniya [Elements of dynamic programming]. Moscow: Nauka [in Russian]. Mocherny, S. (2001). Osnovy pidpryiemnytskoi diialnosti [Fundamentals of entrepreneurial activity]. K.: Akademiya [in Ukrainian]. Klassifikatsiya veb-saytov: tipyi i vidyi internet saytov. Kakie byivayut saytyi [Classification of websites: types and types of Internet sites. What are the kinds of sites]. www.yanajy.com. Retrieved from http://www.yanajy.com//sdelay-sam/2610.html [in Russian]. Kalinina, L. (2007). Autsorsingovyie uslugi v oblasti informatsionnyih tehnologiy: otsenka kachestva [Outsourcing services in the field of information technology: quality assessment]. riastk.ru. Retrieved from http://ria-stk.ru/stq/adetail.php?ID=5120&sphrase_id=1814950 [in Russian]. Polyanskiy, Yu.A. Kriterii otsenki effektivnosti otdelnyih vidov funktsiy, peredavaemyih na autsorsing, perspektivyi razvitiya ryinka autsorsinga [Polyansky Yu. A. Criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of certain types of functions transferred to outsourcing, prospects for developing the outsourcing market]. www.zdt-magazine.ru. Retrieved from http://www.zdt-magazine.ru [in Russian]. Lamben, Zh.-Zh. (2004). Menedzhment, orientirovannyiy na ryinok [Market-oriented management]. SPb.: Piter [in Russian]. Doll, J., Eisert, U. (2014). Business Model Development and Innovation, a Strategic Approach to Business Transformation. The Business Transformation Journal, 11, 7–15. Illyashenko, S.M. (2011). Suchasni tendentsiyi zastosuvannya Internet-tehnologiy u marketingu [Modern trends in the use of Internet technologies in marketing]. Marketing I menedzhment InnovatsIy [Marketing and innovation management]. 2, 4. 64–74 [in Ukrainian]. &nbsp

Criterion of Existence of Power-Law Memory for Economic Processes.

In this paper, we propose criteria for the existence of memory of power-law type (PLT) memory in economic processes. We give the criterion of existence of power-law long-range dependence in time by using the analogy with the concept of the long-range alpha-interaction. We also suggest the criterion of existence of PLT memory for frequency domain by using the concept of non-integer dimensions. For an economic process, for which it is known that an endogenous variable depends on an exogenous variable, the proposed criteria make it possible to identify the presence of the PLT memory. The suggested criteria are illustrated in various examples. The use of the proposed criteria allows apply the fractional calculus to construct dynamic models of economic processes. These criteria can be also used to identify the linear integro-differential operators that can be considered as fractional derivatives and integrals of non-integer orders.

АДАПТИВНАЯ МОДЕЛЬ БИНАРНОГО ВЫБОРА И ВОЗМОЖНОСТИ ЕЕ ПРАКТИЧЕСКОГО ИСПОЛЬЗОВАНИЯ

Цель: построение адаптивной модели бинарного выбора на основе нового подхода к реализации адаптивных принципов. Обсуждение: принципы адаптации, перекочевав из живой природы в науку, технику, теорию и практику управления, показывают абсолютную универсальность. Трудно назвать область человеческой деятельности, в которой эти принципы нельзя было бы использовать. Особое место они занимают в моделировании экономических процессов. Механизм, с помощью которого осуществляется практическая реализация принципов адаптации, основан на экспоненциальном сглаживании. Процедура экспоненциального сглаживания оказалась столь удачной, что ее использовали даже при объяснении смысла гипотезы адаптивных ожиданий. В результате применения этой процедуры происходит затухание более ранних тенденций и закономерностей, что естественным образом обеспечивает доминирование закономерностей, демонстрируемых последними наблюдениями. Возникает закономерный вопрос: действительно ли процедура экспоненциального сглаживания представляет собой единственный способ, с помощью которого удается осуществить плавную замену старых тенденций новыми. В исследовании предлагается не затухание более ранних тенденций, а усиление вновь нарождающихся. Понятно, что усиление новых тенденций автоматически приводит к относительному снижению значимости старых. Фактически достигается тот же самый эффект. Результаты: предлагаемый способ построения адаптивного механизма назван степенным сглаживанием, что, по мнению авторов, подчеркивает аналогичность его предназначенности с экспоненциальным сглаживанием. Но в отличие от экспоненциального сглаживания степенное сглаживание применяется для построения нелинейных регрессионных моделей, коэффициенты которых оцениваются с помощью метода максимального правдоподобия, специфика которого учитывается экспоненциальным сглаживанием. Изложены детали применения этого подхода дял построения адаптивной модели бинарного выбора.

Modelling curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand

The authors research the issue of functional properties of curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand.Settlement of the problem, and its connection with important scientific and practical tasks. According to its nature, the market economy is unstable and is in constant movement. Economy has an effective instrument for explanation of changes in economic environment; this tool is called the modelling of economic processes. The modelling of economic processes depends first and foremost on the building of economic model which is the base for the formalization of economic process, that is, the building of mathematical model. The effective means for formalization of economic process is the creation of the model of hypothetic or imaginary economy. The building of demand model is significant for the market of goods and services. The problem includes the receiving (as the result of modelling) definite functional properties of curves of manufacturing feasibilities anddemand according to which one can determine their mathematical model. Another problem lies in obtaining majorant properties of curves of joint demand on the market of goods and services.Analysis of the latest researches and publications. Many domestic and foreign scientists dedicated their studies to the researches and building of the models of curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand. In spite of considerable work of the scientists, such problems as functional properties of the curves and their practical use in modelling.The purpose of the article is to describe functional properties of curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand on the market of goods and services on the base of modelling of their building.Scientific novelty and practical value. The theoretical regulations (for functional properties of curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand) received as a result of the present research, that is convexity, give extra practical possibilities in a microeconomic analysis and in the construction of models of curves according to statistical data. The methods of the study can also be applied to determine the functional properties for curves of supply.

LINKING AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL ECONOMICS TO POST KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS

Agent-based computational economics is relatively a new methodology in economics. It is defined as ‘the computational modeling of economic processes (including whole economies) as open-ended dynamic systems of interacting agents’. Contrary to fundamental assumptions of neoclassical and mainstream approaches, agent-based computational economics assumes that (a) agents are heterogeneous and bounded rational decision makers in an economy, (b) an economy is a non-linear, complex and adaptive system. Moreover, these assumptions seem to hold true for Post Keynesian economics to a large extent. Given that, this study attempts to bring out similarities and potential links between these two economic thoughts. http://dx.doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.20173126260

Book Reviews

Agent-based computational economics (ACE) is the computational modeling of economic processes (including whole economies) as openended dynamic systems of interacting agents (Tesfatsion 2016a). In this book, author Shu-Heng Chen—an important pioneering contributor to the development of ACE—undertakes a detailed exposition of the ACE modeling approach that focuses on two fundamental questions. First, what is ACE? Second, to what extent is ACE useful, or even necessary, for understanding economic processes?

Spatial and spatiotemporal models of unemployment rate in Poland

The article show interest in modelling of economic processes which are characterized by spatial dependence. An unemployment rate indicating a level of socio-economic development of regions constitutes one of such processes. The correct quantitative description of this process, as one of more important negative socio-economic phenomena, is an important task of econometrics, in particular, of spatial econometrics. The purpose of the article is to provide a spatial analysis of the unemployment rate registered at the end of each year in Polish poviats. The research covers the period of 2004-2009. Two approaches to modelling are used - spatial and spatiotemporal. The neighbourhood matrix based on the common border of poviats is applied to reflect the strength and direction of spatial relations. There are used two exogenous variables: investments and entities of the economy recorded, both per capita. In the spatial as well as in the spatiotemporal approach the main tendencies of the change of the unemployment rate are described with a spatial linear trend. All of the received models have good economic and statistic properties and they could be used for further analysis.

Special issue of the Czech Society for Operations Research

This special issue contains selected papers of the 28th International ConferenceMathematical Methods in Economics (MME) that took place in the city of Ceske Budejovice in September 2010. It is a traditional annual meeting of professionals from universities and business who are interested in the theory and applications of operations research and econometrics organized by the Czech Society for Operations Research (CSOR) together with the Czech Econometric Society in various places within the Czech Republic. The number of participants is rapidly increasing in the last years. Usually between 100 and 200 professionals are presenting their research results every year. Although the conference is the annual meeting of the CSOR there are always participants from all around the world especially from surrounding countries as Slovakia, Poland, Austria, Germany, Slovenia, etc. Accepted papers presented at the conference are published in the Book of Proceedings that is indexed in CPCI (Conference Proceedings Citation Index) since 2003. Main organizer of theConferenceMME is theCSOR. It is a quite small professional society with approx. 50 regular members but its activities are numerous. Except the mentioned international conference Mathematical Methods in Economics the main international activity was organization of the 22nd European Conference on Operational Research EURO XXII in 2007. This conference was organized by the CSOR in cooperation with the University of Economics, Prague. EURO XXII was a very successful event, by attending of more than two thousands of participants from all over the world it was one of the largest EURO conferences at all. The conferencesMME cover both theoretical and application aspects of mathematical modeling of economic processes. The scope of the conference involves operations

Cluster-continuum modeling of economic processes

Cluster-continuum modeling of economic processes

Change of contractor’s status in the system of national accounts

It is assumed that methodological foundation of national accounting is based on the principles of political economy, accounting and statistics. However, the author of the present paper believes that market turnover reproduction processes, as well as interaction of the given processes, were not sufficiently covered in periodicals dedicated to the SNA problems. Thus, the timeliness of the paper is associated with an attempt to show that the substance of the fundamental law of self-preservation in the context of unbalanced estimates regarding modern reproduction and real market turnover appears either as conservatism trends, or development trends in the market economy. The aim of the present paper is to determine specifics of dual substance of counterparties in the national economy, which establishes their status as producers and consumers. Problem analysis referred to reproduction regularity formalization, an effect of such regularities on market turnover, as well as building a logical scheme and subordination of reproduction categories, make it possible to achieve the goal and identify a study algorithm regarding counterparty status change. The author of the paper applies methods of “pure economy†– mathematical methods, in particular, as well as methods of political economy, including a dialectics method. The results obtained in terms of new knowledge on interaction of reproduction processes and market turnover make it possible to determine current trends in the economic system. Moreover, description of a generic term, material basis, form of function and system-defined quality helps estimating a degree of dominant feature combination, determine counterparties’ ability to develop or preserve various production activities, and, finally, stimulate ability to change status of counterparties. The main conclusion of the present paper is that the SNA can be treated as an “ex-ante†analysis within the suggested approach, rather than an “ex-post†analysis suggested by traditional “Economics†. And such treatment meets the requirements of the new economy, i.e. economy of knowledge, based on predictive modeling of economic processes.

Analysis and Modeling of Economic Processes of the Transitional Period

Analysis and Modeling of Economic Processes of the Transitional Period

Continued development of a peat biogasification process

Bench-scale experimentation and development of an economic process model were conducted for the conversion of peat to substitute natural gas (SNG). This work was a continuation of an earlier study [1]. The process consists of three steps: (a) hot (150°C) aqueous alkali solubilization of peat so that the complex ligneous structure is converted into single ring aromatic compounds with one or more 3 to 5 carbon side chains; (b) oxidation of these side chains, the exothermic reaction also providing the process heat; and (c) anaerobic fermentation of the solubilized/oxidized peat to fuel gas. While both solubilization and oxidation steps may be carried out in the same reaction vessel, these are two discrete processing steps. Solubilization follows first order reaction kinetics with respect to peat and hydroxyl ion concentrations with k s = 2.30 × 10 6 exp (−3300/ T) (l/h mol). The oxidation of solubilized peat was found to follow first order reaction kinetics with respect to solubilized peat and oxygen with k o = 7.5 × 10 14 exp (−14560/ T)(l/h mol), T in K. Methane fermentation of the pretreated peat followed first order kinetics; the rate constant was 0.015 day −1 under mesophilic (37°C) and continuous fermentation conditions. This constant is believed to be low primarily due to sodium ion inhibition from added soda ash. Methane fermentation of model compounds, assayed in the peat liquor, were much higher, for example, 0.1 day −1 for benzoic acid and 0.18 day −1 for syringaldehyde. The fuel gas processing cost was calculated using the utility financing method approved by the American Gas Association and the kinetics and yields determined experimentally. A conservative “base cost” for pipeline quality methane was determined to be $5.6/GJ ($5.9/million BTU) for a 74 × 10 3 GJ/day (70 billion BTU/day) plant processing more than 7.3 Mg/day (8000 tons/day) (dry) of peat. A sensitivity analysis revealed that the alkali requirements and digester volume were most critical to the methane cost and that by further process development the average gas cost may be expected to be reduced to $2.8–3.8/GJ ($3–4/million BTU).

Verification/validation of an economic process model for electric power generation in the united states

The purpose of this paper is to report how a verification/validation effort was completed for an economic process model of electric power generation in the United States. Primary emphasis in this effort was directed to replicating historical statistics in the 1965–69 and 1970–74 periods. This application effort was accomplished by working toward meaningful replication first for the South Central and Middle Atlantic Regions and second for a 16-region delineation of the contiguous 48 states. Results of both phases show least-cost solutions of the model, as revised in the effort, replicate well statistics for important categories of fuel use and capacity investments. In 6 aggregated regions, the modeling solutions explained 97% of the variance in coal use in 1969 and 93% of the variance in coal use in 1974. Also, the capacity investment solutions of the model explained 70% and 84% of the variance in coal investments in 1969 and 1974, respectively. In addition, solutions of the model seem to match unfolding fuel use and capacity investment trends very well for the 1975–85 period.